PDF 原檔：報告_GS_宏達電2498_20261010_original.pdf
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41KB | 真資料圖 | HTC 12M forward P/S 通道圖（x 軸 2019–2025，平均 5x、+1std 7x、-1std 3x）；報告內標為 Exhibit 4，屬估值倍數圖 |
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68KB | 真資料圖 | GS 評等與目標價沿革圖（2023–2026，目標價點：72、59、57、55、62、54、49、48、47、39.9、40.6、35.2、35.7、40.3、34.4 等）疊加台股加權指數 |
原始內容
HTC Corp. (2498.TW): XR headset and AI glasses to support growth ahead; Near-term cost pressures remain; Sell
In September, HTC accelerated its global wearable expansion with the commercial launch of the new round-frame edition of its VIVE Eagle AI smart glasses alongside substantial software enhancements across North America, Europe, and Australia (news). Features include hands-free image capture, first-person POV live streaming, real-time AI translation, AI Notes, dashcam utility, and assistive vision for the visually impaired. Meanwhile, the company continues to anchor its VR headset strategy around commercial enterprise solutions, underscored by its flagship deployment with Axon which shifts hazardous tactical training into virtual environments to reduce operational costs, complemented by use cases in complex surgical simulation, interior space visualization, and virtual meeting rooms.
While we maintain our constructive view on HTC's long-term growth trajectory backed by sustained product innovation, we are Sell rated given near-term earnings headwinds - specifically core monetization drivers across XR/ VR/ AI glasses and software will require extended lead time to ramp adoption, compounded by consumer electronics demand softness and margin compression from elevated memory component costs. We would turn more positive if we see stronger-than-expected XR headset/ AI glasses growth driven by market demand, application development or customer expansion.
Earnings revisions: We factor in 3Q26 revenues and revise down 2026-28E net income. We revise down 2026-28E revenues by 4%/ 0%/ 27% due to demand pressures of consumer electronics (impacted by soaring memory cost) and soft demand of XR products in the near-term. GM estimates are largely unchanged in 2026-2027E, and we revise down our OPM estimates by 2.1/ 0.3ppts on a smaller business scale. GM are revised up by 5.7ppts in 2028E to reflect mix upgrade to VR hardware and software with high margin.
Exhibit 1: Earnings revisions
| NT$m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Diff % | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Diff % | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 6,972 | 6,693 | -4% | 14,741 | 14,780 | 0% | 20,908 | 15,352 | -27% |
| GP | 2,756 | 2,624 | -5% | 5,807 | 5,732 | -1% | 8,220 | 6,917 | -16% |
| OP | (736) | (846) | na | 996 | 952 | -4% | 1,654 | 1,447 | -13% |
| Net income | (371) | (346) | na | 1,007 | 992 | -1% | 1,795 | 1,708 | -5% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 39.5% | 39.2%-0.3ppts | 39.4% | 38.8%-0.6ppts | 39.3% | 45.1%+5.7ppts | |||
| OPM | -10.6% | -12.6% | -2.1ppts | 6.8% | 6.4%-0.3ppts | 7.9% | 9.4%+1.5ppts | ||
| NM | -5.3% | -5.2%+0.2ppts | 6.8% | 6.7%-0.1ppts | 8.6% | 11.1%+2.5ppts |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Valuation: With earnings revisions and an unchanged valuation methodology, our 12M target price is revised down to NT$32.8 (vs. previously at NT$34.4). We continue to derive our target price via 85% based on a fundamental valuation and 15% from a theoretical M&A valuation. (1) Our fundamental valuation is based on 2028E P/E of 19.3x (unchanged), discounted back to 2026E at an 11.5% COE. (2) Our M&A valuation is based on 23.6x 2028E P/E (unchanged) then discounted back to 2026E at an 11.5% COE.
Our target 2028E discounted P/E multiple of 19.3x is in line with XR peers' historical avg. P/E at 19.3x in 2022 (method unchanged, Exhibit 5). HTC's 2029 NI growth will be 15% YoY per our estimate, which is lower than XR peers' (Meta/ Goertek/ Microsoft/ Apple/ Sony) 2023-24 avg. NI growth at 23% YoY. Our M&A target multiple is 23.6x 2028E P/E, which is derived from the peers' historical avg. +1std P/E in 2022 (methodology unchanged). We use avg. +1std P/E of peers to reflect the M&A premium.
Our 12M target price of NT$32.8 implies 4.1x 2026E P/S vs. 126% revenue YoY growth on average in 2026E-27E. The implied 2026E P/S of 4.1x is lower than the company's current price implied 2026E P/S at 4.9x, showing that valuation is stretched. Maintain Sell.
Exhibit 2: HTC discounted P/E and M&A valuation TP at NT$32.80
| NT$ m - Milestone | 2018 - Smartphone to VR | 2019 - Smartphone to VR | 2020 - Smartphone to VR | 2021 - Smartphone to VR | 2022 - VR headset to software | 2023 - VR headset to software | 2024 - VR headset to software | 2025 - VR headset to software | 2026E - VR SW increases | 2027E - VR SW increases | 2028E - VR SW increases | 2029E - VR SW increases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VR headset | 96% | 77% | 62% | 52% | 15% | 56% | 69% | 60% | 69% | |||
| VR software | 1% | 13% | 32% | 34% | 79% | 41% | 29% | 37% | 31% | |||
| Revenue | 23,741 | 10,015 | 5,806 | 5,253 | 4,409 | 4,418 | 3,081 | 2,901 | 6,693 | 14,780 | 15,352 | 17,655 |
| Revenue YoY | -62% | -58% | -42% | -10% | -16% | 0% | -30% | -6% | 131% | 121% | 4% | 15% |
| GM | 2.2% | 20.3% | 27.0% | 31.1% | 39.2% | 41.3% | 40.7% | 35.9% | 39.2% | 38.8% | 45.1% | 39.8% |
| GP | 515 | 2,028 | 1,565 | 1,636 | 1,730 | 1,824 | 1,254 | 1,041 | 2,624 | 5,732 | 6,917 | 7,018 |
| OP | (13,964) | (9,850) | (6,391) | (4,116) | (4,404) | (4,295) | (4,639) | (3,452) | (846) | 952 | 1,447 | 1,721 |
| OPM | -58.8% | -98.4% | -110.1% | -78.4% | -99.9% | -97.2% | -150.6% | -119.0% | -12.6% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 9.8% |
| Net profit | 12,068 | (9,358) | (5,950) | (3,073) | (3,412) | (3,396) | (3,418) | 6,025 | (346) | 992 | 1,438 | 1,661 |
| NP YoY | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | -106% | n.a. | 45% | 15% | |
| EPS | 14.50 | (11.43) | (7.27) | (3.75) | (4.13) | (4.09) | (4.11) | 7.15 | (0.41) | 1.19 | 2.04 | 1.99 |
| EPS YoY | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | -106% | n.a. | 45% | 15% |
Target PE (sector PE)
Target PE x 2028 EPS
Value per share (NT, 2026E)
| COE | 11.5% |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.6 |
| Risk-free rate | 1.8% |
| Market risk premium | 6.3% |
| TP (NT$) | 32.8 |
|---|---|
| M&A P/E (avg.+1stv P/E, x) | 23.6 |
| 2028 EPS x P/E (NT$) | 48 |
| M&A valuation (15%) (NT$) | 39 |
| Fundamental valuation (85%) (NT$) | 32 |
| TP implied 2026E PS (x) | 4.1 |
| Rev YoY avg. 2026-27E | 126% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
19.3
39
32
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Exhibit 3: HTC P&L summary
| NT$ mn | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 4,418 | 3,081 | 2,901 | 6,693 | 14,780 | 15,352 | 708 | 695 | 716 | 781 | 653 | 614 | 764 | 4,663 |
| Gross profit | 1,824 | 1,254 | 1,041 | 2,624 | 5,732 | 6,917 | 266 | 253 | 252 | 269 | 272 | 262 | 367 | 1,722 |
| OP income | (4,295) | (4,639) | (3,452) | (846) | 952 | 1,447 | (1,144) | (836) | (854) | (618) | (563) | (573) | (516) | 805 |
| Net income | (3,396) | (3,418) | 6,025 | (346) | 992 | 1,708 | 4,055 | (716) | 3,243 | (557) | (242) | (279) | (579) | 754 |
| EPS (NT$, diluted) | (4.09) | (4.11) | 7.15 | (0.41) | 1.19 | 2.04 | 4.82 | (0.85) | 3.85 | (0.67) | (0.29) | (0.33) | (0.69) | 0.90 |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 41.3% | 40.7% | 35.9% | 39.2% | 38.8% | 45.1% | 37.6% | 36.5% | 35.2% | 34.4% | 41.7% | 42.6% | 48.1% | 36.9% |
| Operating margin | -97.2% | -150.6% | -119.0% | -12.6% | 6.4% | 9.4% | -161.5% | -120.3% | -119.2% | -79.2% | -86.2% | -93.2% | -67.6% | 17.3% |
| Pretax margin | -76.9%-110.9%291.0% | -4.7% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 871.0% | -102.9% | 484.6% | -61.9% | -35.0% | -42.3% | -76.0% | 16.2% | ||
| Net margin | -76.9%-110.9%207.7% | -5.2% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 572.4% | -103.0% | 452.7% | -71.3% | -37.0% | -45.5% | -75.8% | 16.2% | ||
| Ratios | ||||||||||||||
| Opex ratio | -138% | -191% | -155% | -52% | -32% | -36% | -199% | -157% | -154% | -114% | -128% | -136% | -116% | -20% |
| Tax rate | 0% | 0% | 29% | -11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| YoY | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 0% | -30% | -6% | 131% | 121% | 4% | 19% | -9% | -7% | -17% | -8% | -12% | 7% | 497% |
| Gross profit | 5% | -31% | -17% | 152% | 118% | 21% | 8% | -19% | -20% | -29% | 2% | 3% | 46% | 540% |
| OP income | na | na | na | na | na | 52% | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Pretax income | na | na | na | na | na | 72% | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Net income | na | na | na | na | na | 72% | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| QoQ | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | -25% | -2% | 3% | 9% | -16% | -6% | 24% | 511% | ||||||
| Gross profit | -29% | -5% | 0% | 7% | 1% | -4% | 40% | 369% | ||||||
| OP income | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | ||||||
| Pretax income | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | ||||||
| Net income | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: HTC 12M forward P/S
Source: Refinitiv Eikon Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Eikon Datastream
Exhibit 5: HTC's 2029 NI growth is at 15% YoY, lower than XR peers 2023-24 avg. NI growth
| Company | Ticker | 2022 PE | 2023-24 NI growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | Meta.O | 15.5 | 64% |
| Goertek | 002241.SZ | 18.5 | 15% |
| Apple | AAPL.O | 20.8 | 9% |
| Microsoft | MSFT.O | 25.9 | 12% |
| Sony | 6758.T | 15.7 | 16% |
| Average (excl. Meta) | Average (excl. Meta) | 19.3 | 23% |
| HTC target discounted P/E (2028E) | HTC target discounted P/E (2028E) | 19.3 | |
| HTC NI growth (2029E) | HTC NI growth (2029E) | 15% |
Price Target Risks and Methodology - HTC Corp.
Valuation methodology: We are Sell rated on HTC with a 12M target price of NT$32.8, which is derived 85% from a fundamental valuation and 15% from a theoretical M&A valuation. (1) Our fundamental valuation is based on 19.3x 2028E P/E, discounted back to 2026E at an 11.5% COE. The 19.3x target P/E multiple is derived from peers' avg. P/E in 2022; (2) Our M&A valuation is based on 23.6x 2028E P/E and discounted back to 2026E at an 11.5% COE.
Key risks: 1) Better-than-expected VR demand; 2) lower-than-expected competition in VR headsets; and 3) lower-than-expected price pressure from peers.
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2498.TW
12m Price Target: NT$32.80
Price: NT$42.00
Downside: 21.9%
| Sell | GS Forecast | ||||
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | ||
| Market cap: NT$35.1bn / $1.1bn Enterprise value: NT$36.0bn / $1.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$216.8mn / $6.8mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 2 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Revenue (NT$ mn) New | 2,900.7 | 6,693.4 | 14,780.5 | -- |
| Market cap: NT$35.1bn / $1.1bn Enterprise value: NT$36.0bn / $1.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$216.8mn / $6.8mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 2 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 2,900.7 | 6,972.0 | 14,741.2 | -- |
| Market cap: NT$35.1bn / $1.1bn Enterprise value: NT$36.0bn / $1.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$216.8mn / $6.8mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 2 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | EBITDA (NT$ mn) | (3,227.2) | (625.6) | 1,166.4 | -- |
| Market cap: NT$35.1bn / $1.1bn Enterprise value: NT$36.0bn / $1.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$216.8mn / $6.8mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 2 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | EPS (NT$) New | 7.21 | (0.41) | 1.19 | 2.04 |
| Market cap: NT$35.1bn / $1.1bn Enterprise value: NT$36.0bn / $1.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$216.8mn / $6.8mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 2 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | EPS (NT$) Old | 7.21 | (0.44) | 1.20 | 2.15 |
| Market cap: NT$35.1bn / $1.1bn Enterprise value: NT$36.0bn / $1.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$216.8mn / $6.8mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 2 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | P/E (X) | 6.6 | NM | 35.4 | 20.6 |
| P/B (X) | 30.5 | 27.4 | 26.4 | NM | |
| Dividend yield (%) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | NM | |
| CROCI (%) | (14.5) | (0.3) | 4.1 | -- | |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | ||
| EPS (NT$) | (0.33) | (0.69) | 0.90 | 0.04 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 8 Oct 2026 close.
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