PDF 原檔：報告_GS_奇鋐3017_20260925_original.pdf
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| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_GS_奇鋐3017_20260925_001.png |
32KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：AVC 2025-26 月營收長條圖（NT$m，左軸 0-35,000；Jan-25 至 Aug-26 實績深色、Sep-Nov(E) 淺色）疊 YoY% 折線（右軸 0-160%） |
報告_GS_奇鋐3017_20260925_002.png |
20KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 4：同業 EPS 成長 vs 本益比散佈圖，橫軸 2027-28E 平均淨利 YoY、縱軸 2027E P/E，標示 Vertiv／King Slide／Auras／Hon Hai／Gigabyte／Pegatron，迴歸線 y=72.711x+2.0846、R²=0.8708 |
報告_GS_奇鋐3017_20260925_003.png |
31KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 5：AVC 12M 遠期本益比走勢（2021-09 至 2026 年中後），水平線 +1stv 20.5x、avg 13.8x、-1stv 7.1x |
報告_GS_奇鋐3017_20260925_004.png |
26KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 6：AVC QFII（外資）持股比率走勢（2023-08 至 2026-08），低點 32%（約 2023-12）、高點 56%（約 2026-04）、末端 54% |
報告_GS_奇鋐3017_20260925_005.png |
24KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 7：AVC 淨利（長條，NT$mn，左軸 0-90,000）與營業利益率（折線，右軸 0-35%），2021-2028E，OPM 由約 10% 升至 2028E 約 30% |
報告_GS_奇鋐3017_20260925_006.png |
73KB | 真資料圖 | GS 評等與目標價沿革圖（2023-2026，雙軸：股價／Taiwan SE Weighted Index），標示歷次目標價節點（908、983、1026…至 2259、3536） |
原始內容
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AVC (3017.TW): Liquid cooling rising adoption along with new AI servers across GPU and ASIC to drive sequential monthly revenues growth; Buy
3-month revenues preview: We expect AVC's monthly revenues to continue sequential growth through Dec 2026, leading 3Q26 / 4Q26 revenues to grow at +18% / +27% QoQ, driven by (1) new AI server racks ramp up, driving overall liquid cooling penetration rate. As we highlighted in June (report link), we expect AI server rack (NVL72-equivalent) shipment (incl. Nvidia and AMD) to reach 55k/ 105k/ 163k in 2026-28E, increasing by 16% / 20% in 2027 / 28E, reflecting our positive view on AI server racks, (2) its major ASIC AI server customer's new model ramp up, driving its air-cooling and liquid-cooling components, along with a rising liquid cooling penetration rate, (3) its customer base expansion to a new ASIC AI server, to further drive its liquid cooling components in 4Q26, and (4) increasing adoption rate of ultra-thin VC in consumer electronics to fit the lightweight design and major customer's foldable phone model. We expect AVC's net income to grow at a +39% CAGR in 2026-28E, riding on the strong AI spending, a growing liquid cooling penetration rate, and AVC's leading market position in total solutions (air cooling, liquid cooling with various components / systems). Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 1: AVC monthly revenue trend
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 2: AVC monthly/quarterly revenue summary
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26E | Oct-26E | Nov-26E | Dec-26E | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 18,590 | 19,481 | 19,937 | 21,731 | 24,122 | 27,896 | 58,008 | 73,749 |
| Rev YoY | 57% | 54% | 37% | 32% | 39% | 100% | 49% | 54% |
| Rev MoM / QoQ | 6% | 4% | 2% | 9% | 11% | 16% | 18% | 27% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 18,941 | 19,334 | ||||||
| Act vs. GS | -2% | 1% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revisions: We factor in AVC's Aug revenue and raise our 2026-28E net
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng +852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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income by 1% / 5% / 17%, mainly on higher revenues and GMs. Our 2026-28E revenue are revised up by 0% / 4% / 14%, mainly on a higher contribution from AI server liquid cooling components. 2027-28E GM are revised up to reflect the rising liquid cooling components driving profitability. 2026-28E opex ratios are revised down to reflect improving operational efficiency.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revisions
| NT$m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Diff % | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Diff % | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 229,917 | 229,917 | 0% | 302,446 | 315,979 | 4% | 344,492 | 391,749 | 14% |
| GP | 71,886 | 71,886 | 0% | 94,949 | 103,292 | 9% | 108,063 | 131,588 | 22% |
| OP | 59,013 | 58,856 | 0% | 79,524 | 85,597 | 8% | 92,389 | 111,242 | 20% |
| Net income | 40,313 | 40,628 | 1% | 56,475 | 59,569 | 5% | 66,823 | 78,030 | 17% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 31.3% | 31.3% | 31.4% | 32.7% | 31.4% | 33.6% | |||
| OPM | 25.7% | 25.6% | 26.3% | 27.1% | 26.8% | 28.4% | |||
| NM | 17.5% | 17.7% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 19.4% | 19.9% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to use a near-term P/E to derive our 12-month target price and update our target P/E multiple to 30.3x 2027E EPS (vs. 28.2x previously), which is still derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. Our target P/E multiple is above AVC's historical average +1stv. forward trading P/E, reflecting our positive view on AVC riding on the rising penetration rate of liquid-cooled AI servers. With our updated target P/E and earnings estimates, we raise our 12-month target price to NT$4,513 (from NT$3,986). Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 4: AVC peers: EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation
Exhibit 5: AVC 12M forward P/E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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Exhibit 6: AVC QFII holdings
Exhibit 7: AVC net income and OPM
Source: TEJ
Exhibit 8: AVC P&L summary
| NTD mn | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 59,194 | 71,761 | 139,639 | 229,917 | 315,979 | 391,749 | 23,333 | 29,595 | 38,937 | 47,775 | 49,038 | 49,121 | 58,008 | 73,749 |
| Gross profit | 12,388 | 16,870 | 36,034 | 71,886 | 103,292 | 131,588 | 6,028 | 7,224 | 10,172 | 12,610 | 14,597 | 15,999 | 18,455 | 22,835 |
| OP income | 7,467 | 10,878 | 27,742 | 58,856 | 85,597 | 111,242 | 4,346 | 5,180 | 8,179 | 10,039 | 12,016 | 13,324 | 15,032 | 18,484 |
| Net income | 5,305 | 8,172 | 19,186 | 40,628 | 59,569 | 78,030 | 3,214 | 3,997 | 5,339 | 6,636 | 7,916 | 9,567 | 10,341 | 12,803 |
| EPS (NTD, diluted) | 13.71 | 20.62 | 48.24 | 101.60 | 148.95 | 195.11 | 8.06 | 10.02 | 13.46 | 16.70 | 19.81 | 23.92 | 25.86 | 32.01 |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 20.9% | 23.5% | 25.8% | 31.3% | 32.7% | 33.6% | 25.8% | 24.4% | 26.1% | 26.4% | 29.8% | 32.6% | 31.8% | 31.0% |
| Operating margin | 12.6% | 15.2% | 19.9% | 25.6% | 27.1% | 28.4% | 18.6% | 17.5% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 24.5% | 27.1% | 25.9% | 25.1% |
| Net margin | 9.0% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 17.7% | 18.9% | 19.9% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 19.5% | 17.8% | 17.4% |
| Ratios | ||||||||||||||
| Opex ratio | -8% | -8% | -6% | -6% | -6% | -5% | -7% | -7% | -5% | -5% | -5% | -5% | -6% | -6% |
| Tax rate | 28% | 26% | 27% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 28% |
| YoY | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 6% | 21% | 95% | 65% | 37% | 24% | 52% | 80% | 104% | 129% | 110% | 66% | 49% | 54% |
| Gross profit | 14% | 36% | 114% | 99% | 44% | 27% | 79% | 90% | 127% | 141% | 142% | 121% | 81% | 81% |
| OP income | 18% | 46% | 155% | 112% | 45% | 30% | 126% | 113% | 160% | 197% | 176% | 157% | 84% | 84% |
| Net income | 27% | 54% | 135% | 112% | 47% | 31% | 105% | 105% | 130% | 184% | 146% | 139% | 94% | 93% |
| QoQ | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 12% | 27% | 32% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 18% | 27% | ||||||
| Gross profit | 15% | 20% | 41% | 24% | 16% | 10% | 15% | 24% | ||||||
| OP income | 28% | 19% | 58% | 23% | 20% | 11% | 13% | 23% | ||||||
| Net income | 37% | 24% | 34% | 24% | 19% | 21% | 8% | 24% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - AVC
We are Buy-rated on AVC. Our 12-month target price for AVC is based on a near-term P/E, consistent with our Taiwan Technology coverage. We base our target price of NT$4,513 on a target P/E multiple of 30.3x applied to our forward-year EPS (2027E). Our target P/E is derived from the correlation between P/E and EPS growth of its peers in technology hardware.
Key downside risks: (1) slower-than-expected adoption of liquid cooling; (2) lower-than-expected demand for AI servers; (3) fiercer-than-expected competition; and (4) a slower-than-expected recovery in general servers.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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3017.TW
12m Price Target: NT$4,513.00
Price: NT$3,555.00
Upside: 26.9%
| Buy | GS Forecast | ||||
| Market cap: NT$1.4tr / $43.0bn Enterprise value: NT$1.3tr / $41.1bn 3m ADTV: NT$11.3bn / $353.8mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) EPS (NT$) New EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) CROCI (%) | 12/25 139,639.4 30,988.5 48.24 48.24 18.0 7.7 | 12/26E 229,916.5 229,916.5 63,316.5 101.60 100.89 35.0 21.0 1.2 231.8 | 12/27E 315,979.1 90,580.8 148.95 141.33 23.9 14.0 1.8 313.9 | 12/28E 391,749.0 344,491.6 116,913.1 195.11 167.23 18.2 9.7 2.4 395.3 |
| 139,639.4 | 302,446.0 | ||||
| 2.4 | |||||
| 160.7 | |||||
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | ||
| EPS (NT$) | 23.92 | 25.86 | 32.01 | 34.44 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 24 Sep 2026 close.
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