PDF 原檔：報告_GS_奇鋐3017_20260813_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-14）
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38KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：AVC 月營收趨勢，2025-01～2026-07（實績）＋08-10（E）月營收長條圖（NT$m，左軸 0-25,000）疊 YoY% 折線（右軸 0-160%） |
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25.6KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 5：AVC 同業 EPS 成長 vs 本益比相關性散佈圖，橫軸 2027-28E 平均淨利 YoY、縱軸 2027E P/E，標示 Sunon／Gigabyte／Pegatron／Hon Hai／Vertiv／King Slide 六家同業，含迴歸線 y=90.97x+1.5847、R²=0.9696 |
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42.9KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 6：AVC 12M 遠期本益比走勢圖（2018-2026），標示平均 12x、+1stv 17x、-1stv 6x 三條水平虛線 |
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82.6KB | 真資料圖 | AVC rating and stock price target history 雙軸圖（股價／Index Price），標示 2023-2026 歷次目標價調整節點數字（685、707、772…至 3536），底部含 NA／B 評等區間列 |
原始內容
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AVC (3017.TW): Liquid cooling component ASP and GM upside on the rising complexity of server racks; July in line; 2Q26 beat; Buy
AVC's Jul revenue was up 57% YoY / 6% QoQ to NT$19bn, largely in line with our estimate. We attribute the strong YoY growth to the strong shipments of AI server liquid cooling components, riding on the increasing AI server end demand and a growing liquid cooling penetration rate. We model sequential revenue growth in Aug-Dec, considering (1) rising shipments of next-generation rack-level AI servers, (2) an increase in liquid cooling dollar content in next-generation AI server racks given their growing complexity, and (3) a rising liquid cooling penetration rate in both ASIC and GPU AI servers. We expect AVC's net income to grow at a +52% CAGR in 2025-28E, riding on the strong AI spending, a growing liquid cooling penetration rate, and AVC's leading market position in total solutions (air cooling, liquid cooling with various components / systems), strong R&D and manufacturing, and strong capacity expansion with diversi fi cation. Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 1: AVC monthly revenue trend
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 2: AVC monthly/quarterly revenue summary
| Jul-26 | Aug-26E | Sep-26E | Oct-26E | Nov-26E | Dec-26E | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 18,590 | 19,334 | 20,084 | 21,892 | 24,300 | 27,557 | 58,008 | 73,749 |
| Rev YoY | 57% | 53% | 38% | 33% | 40% | 98% | 49% | 54% |
| Rev MoM / QoQ | 6% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 18% | 27% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 18,941 | |||||||
| Act vs. GS | -2% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
2Q26 GM beat: AVC's 2Q26 revenue was up 66% YoY, largely in line with our estimate and Bloomberg consensus. GM delivered strong QoQ and YoY improvement, reaching 32.6%, which we attribute to a rising contribution from AI server liquid cooling components, which carry a higher GM than other product lines.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Yifan Hu
+852-2978-0996 | yifan.hu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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The 2Q26 opex ratio improved to 5.1%, better than our estimate and Bloomberg consensus; along with the higher-than-expected non-op income, this led 2Q26 net income to come in 23% / 11% higher than our estimate / Bloomberg consensus.
Exhibit 3: AVC 2Q26 result snapshot
| NT$m | 2Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | QoQ | YoY | GS | Act / GS | Cons. | / Cons. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 29,595 | 49,038 | 49,121 | 0% | 66% | 50,072 | -2% | 50,258 | -2% |
| GP | 7,224 | 14,597 | 15,999 | 10% | 121% | 14,890 | 7% | 15,587 | 3% |
| OP | 5,180 | 12,016 | 13,481 | 12% | 160% | 11,825 | 14% | 12,646 | 7% |
| Net income | 3,997 | 7,916 | 9,567 | 21% | 139% | 7,779 | 23% | 8,656 | 11% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 24.4% | 29.8% | 32.6% | 29.7% | 31.0% | ||||
| OPM | 17.5% | 24.5% | 27.4% | 23.6% | 25.2% | ||||
| NM | 13.5% | 16.1% | 19.5% | 15.5% | 17.2% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Earnings revisions: We factor in AVC's Jul revenue and 2Q26 results and raise our 2026-28E net incomes by 11% / 7% / 8%, mainly on higher revenues and GMs. Our 2026-28E revenues are revised up by 1% / 2% / 2%, mainly on a higher contribution from AI server liquid cooling components. 2026-28E GMs are revised up to re fl ect the 2Q26 GM beat, the rising complexity of liquid cooling components driving pro fi tability, and AVC's rising adoption of automation equipment. 2026-28E opex ratios are largely unchanged.
Exhibit 4: Earnings revisions
| NT$m | 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old | New | Diff% | Old | New | Diff% | Old | New | Diff% | |
| Revenues | 228,608 | 229,917 | 1% | 296,412 | 302,446 | 2% | 337,072 | 344,492 | 2% |
| GP | 68,006 | 71,886 | 6% | 88,329 | 94,949 | 7% | 101,032 | 108,063 | 7% |
| OP | 54,437 | 59,013 | 8% | 74,101 | 79,524 | 7% | 86,707 | 92,389 | 7% |
| Net income | 36,253 | 40,313 | 11% | 52,569 | 56,475 | 7% | 62,039 | 66,823 | 8% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 29.7% | 31.3% | 29.8% | 31.4% | 30.0% | 31.4% | |||
| OPM | 23.8% | 25.7% | 25.0% | 26.3% | 25.7% | 26.8% | |||
| NM | 15.9% | 17.5% | 17.7% | 18.7% | 18.4% | 19.4% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to use a near-term P/E to derive our 12-month target price and update our target P/E multiple to 28.2x 2027E EPS (vs. 26.7x previously), which is still derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. Our target P/E multiple is above AVC's historical average +1stv. forward trading P/E, re fl ecting our positive view on AVC riding on the rising penetration rate of liquid-cooled AI servers. With our updated target P/E and earnings estimates, we raise our 12-month target price to NT$3,986. Maintain Buy.
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Exhibit 5: AVC peers: EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Re fi nitiv Eikon
Exhibit 7: AVC P&L summary
| NTD mn | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 59,194 | 71,761 | 139,639 | 229,917 | 302,446 | 344,492 | 23,333 | 29,595 | 38,937 | 47,775 | 49,038 | 49,121 | 58,008 | 73,749 |
| Gross profit | 12,388 | 16,870 | 36,034 | 71,886 | 94,949 | 108,063 | 6,028 | 7,224 | 10,172 | 12,610 | 14,597 | 15,999 | 18,455 | 22,835 |
| Opex | (4,921) | (5,993) | (8,292) | (12,873) | (15,425) | (15,674) | (1,682) | (2,045) | (1,993) | (2,571) | (2,582) | (2,518) | (3,422) | (4,351) |
| OP income | 7,467 | 10,878 | 27,742 | 59,013 | 79,524 | 92,389 | 4,346 | 5,180 | 8,179 | 10,039 | 12,016 | 13,481 | 15,032 | 18,484 |
| Net income | 5,305 | 8,172 | 19,186 | 40,313 | 56,475 | 66,823 | 3,214 | 3,997 | 5,339 | 6,636 | 7,916 | 9,567 | 10,178 | 12,653 |
| EPS (NTD, dilute | 13.71 | 20.62 | 48.24 | 100.89 | 141.33 | 167.23 | 8.06 | 10.02 | 13.46 | 16.70 | 19.81 | 23.94 | 25.47 | 31.67 |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 20.9% | 23.5% | 25.8% | 31.3% | 31.4% | 31.4% | 25.8% | 24.4% | 26.1% | 26.4% | 29.8% | 32.6% | 31.8% | 31.0% |
| Operating margin | 12.6% | 15.2% | 19.9% | 25.7% | 26.3% | 26.8% | 18.6% | 17.5% | 21.0% | 21.0% | 24.5% | 27.4% | 25.9% | 25.1% |
| Net margin | 9.0% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 17.5% | 18.7% | 19.4% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 19.5% | 17.5% | 17.2% |
| Ratios | ||||||||||||||
| Opex ratio | -8% | -8% | -6% | -6% | -5% | -5% | -7% | -7% | -5% | -5% | -5% | -5% | -6% | -6% |
| Tax rate | 28% | 26% | 27% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 28% |
| YoY | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 6% | 21% | 95% | 65% | 32% | 14% | 52% | 80% | 104% | 129% | 110% | 66% | 49% | 54% |
| Gross profit | 14% | 36% | 114% | 99% | 32% | 14% | 79% | 90% | 127% | 141% | 142% | 121% | 81% | 81% |
| OP income | 18% | 46% | 155% | 113% | 35% | 16% | 126% | 113% | 160% | 197% | 176% | 160% | 84% | 84% |
| Net income | 27% | 54% | 135% | 110% | 40% | 18% | 105% | 105% | 130% | 184% | 146% | 139% | 91% | 91% |
| QoQ | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 12% | 27% | 32% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 18% | 27% | ||||||
| Gross profit | 15% | 20% | 41% | 24% | 16% | 10% | 15% | 24% | ||||||
| OP income | 28% | 19% | 58% | 23% | 20% | 12% | 12% | 23% | ||||||
| Net income | 37% | 24% | 34% | 24% | 19% | 21% | 6% | 24% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - AVC
We are Buy-rated on AVC. Our 12-month target price for AVC is based on a near-term P/E, consistent with our Taiwan Technology coverage. We base our target price of NT$3,986 on a target P/E multiple of 28.2x applied to our forward-year EPS (2027E). Our target P/E is derived from the correlation between P/E and EPS growth of its peers in technology hardware.
Key downside risks: (1) slower-than-expected adoption of liquid cooling; (2) lower-than-expected demand for AI servers; (3) fi ercer-than-expected competition; and (4) a slower-than-expected recovery in general servers.
Exhibit 6: AVC 12M forward P/E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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3017.TW
12m Price Target:
NT$3,986.00
Price:
NT$2,910.00
Upside:
37.0%
| Buy | GS Forecast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market c ap: NT$1.1tr / $34. 7bn En terpr is e v a lu e: NT$1.1tr / $33.3 bn 3 m AD T V : NT$11. 6bn / $3 6 4.4 mn Ta iw a n G reater Chin a Te chnology M &A R a n k: 3 L ea s e s incl . in n et d e b t & EV? : Y e s | Revenue ( NT$m n ) N e w Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBIT D A(NT$ mn) E PS ( NT$) N e w EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) D ividend yield (%) CROCI (%) | 12/25 1 39, 6 39.4 139,639.4 30,988.5 4 8 . 2 4 48.24 18.0 7.7 2.4 160.7 6/26 | 12/26E 22 9,9 16 . 5 228,607.9 63,187.4 1 00. 8 9 91.15 28.8 17.2 1.5 165.0 9 /26E | 12/27E 30 2 ,44 6 .0 296,412.4 86,227.5 1 4 1 .33 132.17 20.6 11.6 2.1 171.6 12/26E | 12/28E 344,49 1 . 6 337,072.0 101,375.7 167 . 2 3 155.98 17.4 8.4 2.5 172.3 3 /27E |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 12 Aug 2026 close.
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