PDF 原檔：報告_GS_台積電2330_20261005_original.pdf
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| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
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報告_GS_台積電2330_20261005_012.png |
40KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 12 Forward P/E：2012-10 至 2026-10 股價（NT$）與 10x／14x／18x／22x／26x 本益比帶，來源 Bloomberg（估值圖） |
報告_GS_台積電2330_20261005_015.png |
63KB | 真資料圖 | TSMC（2330.TW）Goldman Sachs 評等與目標價沿革圖，2023-2026，目標價標記含 700、1,160、1,600、2,330、2,600、2,750 等，Evelyn Yu 覆蓋至 2026-06-15（揭露頁圖，股價資料至 2026-06-30） |
報告_GS_台積電2330_20261005_016.png |
63KB | 真資料圖 | TSMC ADR（TSM）Goldman Sachs 評等與目標價沿革圖（美元），標記含 115、222、344、466、520、550 等 |
原始內容
Earnings preview: Strong growth momentum into 2027; CapEx stepping up to support long-term demand; reiterate Buy; TP up to NT$3,300
| 2330.TW | 12m Price Target: NT$3,300.00 | Price: NT$2,575.00 | Upside: 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 12m Price Target: $660.00 | Price: $472.78 | Upside: 39.6% |
TSMC will host its 3Q26 analyst meeting on 15 October. We expect a strong finish to 2026 with a sustained growth outlook into 2027 for TSMC as demand broadens across AI GPUs/AI ASICs, networking and server CPUs. In particular, the stronger CPU demand driven by agentic AI represents a key change over the past year. We forecast 2026E/2027E revenue growth of 42.0%/36.9% YoY (USD terms), with GM at 67.2%/67.5%. We also raise our 2027E/2028E CapEx forecasts to US$85bn/US$98bn (vs. US$78bn/US$82bn previously) as we expect TSMC to further ramp up its capacity investment to support longer-term customer demand.
Strong sequential growth into 4Q26 with modest N2 ramp dilution
We expect TSMC's 3Q26E revenue to grow 15.3% QoQ, followed by a further 11.0% QoQ increase in 4Q26E (both in USD terms), supported by continued strength in AI/HPC demand. On profitability, we model GM edging down to 67.5%/67.3% in 3Q26E/4Q26E, vs. 67.7% in 2Q26, reflecting dilution from the ongoing N2 ramp.
Momentum sustaining into 2027, supported by broader AI demand
We expect TSMC's revenue to grow 36.9% YoY (vs. 32.0% previously) in USD terms in 2027E, supported by sustained demand for AI accelerators and networking, alongside an increasingly strong contribution from server CPUs. At our Communacopia + Technology conference, management highlighted that lower token costs should stimulate greater AI consumption, while discussions with customers and US CSPs has reinforced confidence in demand and infrastructure readiness. We believe these trends support continued strength in leading-edge demand, particularly for both N2 and N3, where management expects supply to remain insufficient despite further expansion.
BUY
Evelyn Yu
+886(2)2730-4187 | evelyn.yu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
James Schneider, Ph.D.
+1(212)357-2929 | jim.schneider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Key Data _____________________________________
Market cap: NT$66.8tr / $2.1tr
Enterprise value: NT$63.9tr / $2.0tr
3m ADTV: NT$63.9bn / $2.0bn
Taiwan
Taiwan Semiconductor
M&A Rank: 3
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NT$ mn) New | 3,809,054.35,533,119.07,616,958.49,935,012.5 | |||
| Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 3,809,054.3 | 5,532,239.7 | 7,343,151.2 | 9,393,969.4 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 2,624,188.0 | 4,130,266.7 | 5,785,981.1 | 7,612,220.7 |
| EPS (NT$) New EPS (NT$) Old | 66.26 66.26 | 110.77 109.21 | 150.00 140.91 | 195.67 180.83 |
| P/E (X) | 17.6 | 23.2 | 17.2 | 13.2 |
| P/B (X) | 5.6 8.7 | 6.2 | 4.5 | |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 33.5 | 39.2 | 42.2 | ||
| CROCI (%) | 24.3 | 9/26E | 12/26E | |
| EPS (NT$) | 6/26 27.25 | 29.07 | 32.38 | 3/27E 33.95 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
BUY
TSMC (2330.TW)
Rating since May 7, 2019
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 17.6 | 23.2 | 17.2 | 13.2 |
| P/B (X) | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 4.5 |
| FCF yield (%) | 3.3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 5.4 |
| EV/EBITDAR (X) | 10.8 | 15.5 | 10.8 | 7.8 |
| EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) | 10.8 | 15.5 | 10.8 | 7.8 |
| CROCI (%) | 24.3 | 33.5 | 39.2 | 42.2 |
| ROE (%) | 35.4 | 43.8 | 42.1 | 39.3 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (34.3) | (37.1) | (41.6) | (48.3) |
| Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) | (34.3) | (37.1) | (41.6) | (48.3) |
| Interest cover (X) | 99.1 | 159.6 | 352.6 | 1,020.1 |
| Days inventory outst, sales | 27.6 | 24.0 | 25.6 | 25.8 |
| Receivable days | 26.6 | 26.5 | 26.7 | 24.3 |
| Days payable outstanding | 157.7 | 192.0 | 203.2 | 205.4 |
| DuPont ROE (%) | 31.5 | 37.1 | 35.8 | 33.7 |
| Turnover (X) | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Leverage (X) | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Gross cash invested (ex cash) (NT$) | 9,199,168.9 | 11,323,845.2 | 13,932,260.0 | 16,884,472.7 |
| Average capital employed (NT$) | 3,371,689.3 | 4,226,953.3 | 5,599,065.6 | 7,055,984.0 |
| BVPS (NT$) | 208.99 | 296.50 | 416.50 | 578.17 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | 31.6 | 45.3 | 37.7 | 30.4 |
| EBITDA growth | 32.2 | 57.4 | 40.1 | 31.6 |
| EPS growth | 46.4 | 67.2 | 35.4 | 30.4 |
| DPS growth | 29.4 | 31.8 | 13.8 | 12.1 |
| EBIT margin | 50.8 | 59.9 | 61.0 | 61.5 |
| EBITDA margin | 68.9 | 74.6 | 76.0 | 76.6 |
| Net income margin | 45.1 | 51.9 | 51.1 | 51.1 |
Price Performance __________________________________________
| 3m | 6m | 12m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute | 5.3% | 42.3% | 83.9% |
| Rel. to the Taiwan SE Weighted Index | (0.9)% | (6.8)% | (1.0)% |
Source: FactSet. Price as of 5 Oct 2026 close.
Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | 3,809,054.3 | 5,533,119.0 | 7,616,958.4 | 9,935,012.5 |
| Cost of goods sold | (1,527,760.3) | (1,812,945.1) | (2,476,844.0) | (3,195,359.1) |
| SG&A | (98,775.0) | (99,806.4) | (118,143.8) (376,084.6) | (135,543.8) |
| R&D | (246,427.3) -- | (306,195.1) -- | -- | (498,584.6) |
| Other operating inc./(exp.) EBITDA | 2,624,188.0 | 4,130,266.7 | 5,785,981.1 | -- 7,612,220.7 |
| Depreciation & amortization | (688,096.4) | (816,094.3) | (1,140,095.1) | (1,506,695.6) |
| EBIT | 1,936,091.7 | 3,314,172.4 | 4,645,886.0 | 6,105,525.1 |
| Net interest inc./(exp.) | 86,206.5 | 91,497.7 | 97,520.8 | 104,678.2 |
| Income/(loss) from associates | 5,496.6 | 3,123.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Pre-tax profit | 2,041,662.8 | 3,482,322.0 | 4,743,406.8 | 6,210,203.2 |
| Provision for taxes | (326,266.1) | (608,763.7) | (852,607.8) | (1,135,152.5) |
| Minority interest Preferred dividends | 2,485.8 | (978.5) | (875.9) -- | (875.9) -- |
| -- | -- | |||
| Net inc. (pre-exceptionals) | 1,717,882.6 | 2,872,579.8 | 3,889,923.0 | 5,074,174.8 |
| Post-tax exceptionals Net inc. (post-exceptionals) EPS (basic, pre-except) (NT$) | -- 1,717,882.6 66.26 66.26 | -- 2,872,579.8 110.77 110.77 | -- 3,889,923.0 150.00 150.00 | -- 5,074,174.8 |
| EPS (diluted, pre-except) (NT$) EPS (basic, post-except) EPS (diluted, post-except) DPS (NT$) | 29.00 26.2 | 150.00 33.00 22.0 | 195.67 195.67 | |
| (NT$) (NT$) | 110.77 110.77 | 195.67 195.67 | ||
| 66.26 | 150.00 | |||
| 66.26 | 37.00 | |||
| 22.00 | 18.9 | |||
| Div. payout ratio (%) | ||||
| 33.2 | ||||
| Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) | ______ | 12/28E | ||
| Cash & cash equivalents | 12/25 2,767,856.4 | 12/26E 3,432,894.6 520,242.8 | 12/27E 4,781,787.0 592,057.9 | 7,333,991.7 729,890.7 |
| Accounts receivable Inventory | 282,059.2 288,109.5 | 439,745.9 | 629,017.3 603,826.0 | 773,169.2 |
| Other current | 479,105.8 | 603,826.0 | 603,826.0 9,440,877.7 | |
| assets Total current assets | 3,817,130.8 | 4,996,709.3 | 6,606,688.2 | |
| Net PP&E | 3,691,840.9 | 5,045,856.4 | 6,634,473.7 | 8,272,490.5 1,968.4 |
| Net intangibles | 24,952.6 | 19,393.2 | 10,680.8 | |
| Total investments Other long-term | 172,370.4 226,729.2 | 227,935.7 255,063.0 | 227,935.7 255,063.0 | 227,935.7 255,063.0 |
| assets | 7,933,023.9 | 10,544,957.6 | 13,734,841.4 | |
| Total assets | 18,198,335.3 | |||
| Accounts payable | 714,546.9 | 1,192,793.4 | 1,565,465.0 | 2,031,237.1 -- |
| Short-term debt Short-term lease liabilities | 0.0 -- 743,472.4 | -- -- 875,205.6 2,067,999.0 | -- -- 875,205.6 2,440,670.6 | -- 875,205.6 2,906,442.8 |
| Other current liabilities Total current liabilities | ||||
| Long-term debt Long-term lease liabilities | 1,458,019.3 896,062.0 -- | 564,263.7 -- | 264,263.7 -- | 64,263.7 -- |
| Total long-term Total liabilities | 1,014,209.3 2,472,228.6 | 179,158.2 743,421.9 2,811,421.0 | 179,158.2 443,421.9 2,884,092.6 | 243,421.9 3,149,864.7 |
| Other long-term liabilities liabilities | 118,147.3 | 179,158.2 | ||
| Preferred shares | -- | -- 7,688,934.8 | -- 10,800,848.4 49,900.4 | -- 14,993,271.6 55,199.0 |
| Total common equity Minority interest | 5,419,596.0 | 44,601.9 | ||
| Total liabilities & | 41,199.3 | 18,198,335.3 | ||
| equity | 7,933,023.9 (1,871,794.4) | 10,544,957.6 | 13,734,841.4 | (7,269,728.1) |
| Net debt, adjusted | (2,868,630.9) | (4,517,523.4) | __________ | |
| Cash Flow (NT$ mn) Net income | 12/25 1,717,882.6 688,096.4 | 12/26E 2,872,579.8 816,094.3 | 12/27E 3,889,923.0 1,140,095.1 | 12/28E 5,074,174.8 1,506,695.6 |
| D&A add-back Minority interest add-back Net (inc)/dec working | (2,485.8) | 978.5 88,426.4 | 875.9 | 875.9 183,787.3 |
| capital Other operating cash flow | 111,585.2 | |||
| 98,731.8 (227,249.3) | (171,751.0) | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Cash flow from | 2,274,975.6 | |||
| operations | 3,606,328.1 | 5,142,479.2 | 6,765,533.7 | |
| (2,037,164.7) | (2,720,000.0) | (3,136,000.0) | ||
| Capital expenditures Acquisitions | (1,272,410.5) -- | -- | -- | -- -- |
| Divestitures Others | -- 128,017.1 | -- (2,899.4) | -- | -- |
| Cash flow from | -- | |||
| investing | (1,144,393.4) | (2,040,064.2) | (2,720,000.0) | |
| (3,136,000.0) -- | ||||
| Repayment of lease liabilities Dividends paid (common & pref) | -- (440,851.8) 40,448.1 | -- (622,379.8) (307,998.9) | -- (778,009.3) (300,000.0) | (881,751.6) (200,000.0) |
| Inc/(dec) in debt Other financing cash flows | (89,949.1) | 29,153.0 | 4,422.6 | 4,422.6 |
| Cash flow from financing Total cash flow | (490,352.9) 640,229.4 | (901,225.7) 665,038.2 | (1,073,586.8) 1,348,892.4 | (1,077,329.0) 2,552,204.7 |
| Free cash flow | 1,002,565.1 | 1,569,163.4 | 2,422,479.2 | 3,629,533.7 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
On the supply side, we expect capacity additions, N5-to-N3 conversion, and productivity gains to support higher wafer output, while continued CoWoS expansion helps enable associated wafer shipments. We model GM improving modestly to 67.5% in 2027E (vs. 67.2% in 2026E), supported by higher pricing, favorable product mix, sustained high utilization and continued productivity gains.
Higher CapEx to support longer-term expansion
We maintain our 2026E CapEx forecast at US$64bn, while raising our 2027E/2028E forecasts to US$85bn/US$98bn (vs. US$78bn/US$82bn previously), to incorporate 1) cost inflation from equipment vendors, and 2) initial spending associated with the potential new Texas expansion; however, we expect the new site to only enter mass production beyond 2032. For capacity, we continue to model our end-2027E/2028E N3/N2 capacity at 200kwpm/140kwpm and 220kwpm/200kwpm, respectively.
Other key areas in focus for the upcoming analyst meeting
Long-term AI growth outlook: We believe the broadening of AI demand across accelerators, CPUs and networking further supports TSMC's long-term growth opportunity. We would look for updated comments from management on the key assumptions underpinning its AI outlook through 2030, where demand drivers have strengthened most over the past year, and the factors that could materially change this outlook.
Longer-term CapEx outlook and US expansion: With customer demand continuing to drive investment in leading-edge capacity and advanced packaging, we would look for management to provide further direction on its longer-term CapEx trajectory and the demand visibility supporting these investment decisions. We would also welcome updated comments on whether customer demand could lead to further expansion in the US beyond current Arizona site, and the potential timing and scale of such investments.
Foundry competition and technology leadership: We would look for management's perspective on the evolving competitive landscape, including Intel, Samsung and Terafab, and the implications for TSMC's longer-term positioning. In particular, we would welcome further discussion of its technology leadership, and whether management expects this gap to widen or narrow across upcoming process generations.
Exhibit 1: TSMC's revenue growth (in USD terms)
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
Exhibit 3: TSMC's capex outlook
Exhibit 4: TSMC's capex forecast revisions
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 5: TSMC's annual CoWoS (incl. WMCM) capacity growth trend
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 6: TSMC's annual CoWoS (incl. WMCM) shipment growth trend
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 7: TSMC's quarterly CoWoS (incl. WMCM) capacity ramp (kwpm)
Exhibit 8: TSMC's quarterly CoWoS (incl. WMCM) shipments (kwpm)
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
Earnings estimate revisions, valuation and risks
Forecast changes
We have revised up 2026/27/28E earnings by 1%/7%/8% to reflect 1) higher GM assumptions as we see a milder GM dilution from N2 ramp, and 2) higher UTRs especially for N2/N3 given stronger demand from AI/HPC.
Exhibit 9: Forecast changes
| (NT$mn) | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Diff (%) | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Diff (%) | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Diff (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,532,240 | 5,533,119 | 0.0% | 7,343,151 | 7,616,958 | 3.7% | 9,393,969 | 9,935,012 | 5.8% |
| Gross profit | 3,703,354 | 3,720,174 | 0.5% | 4,921,003 | 5,140,114 | 4.5% | 6,336,563 | 6,739,653 | 6.4% |
| Op. income | 3,264,353 | 3,314,172 | 1.5% | 4,356,775 | 4,645,886 | 6.6% | 5,632,435 | 6,105,525 | 8.4% |
| Net income | 2,831,970 | 2,872,580 | 1.4% | 3,654,193 | 3,889,923 | 6.5% | 4,689,351 | 5,074,175 | 8.2% |
| EPS (NT$) | 109.21 | 110.77 | 1.4% | 140.91 | 150.00 | 6.5% | 180.83 | 195.67 | 8.2% |
| GM | 66.9% | 67.2% | 0.3% | 67.0% | 67.5% | 0.5% | 67.5% | 67.8% | 0.4% |
| OpM | 59.0% | 59.9% | 0.9% | 59.3% | 61.0% | 1.7% | 60.0% | 61.5% | 1.5% |
| NM | 51.2% | 51.9% | 0.7% | 49.8% | 51.1% | 1.3% | 49.9% | 51.1% | 1.2% |
| (NT$mn) | 3Q26E - Old | 3Q26E - New | 3Q26E - Diff (%) | 4Q26E - Old | 4Q26E - New | 4Q26E - Diff (%) | 1Q27E - Old | 1Q27E - New | 1Q27E - Diff (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,467,820 | 1,482,698 | 1.0% | 1,659,936 | 1,645,937 | -0.8% | 1,639,061 | 1,711,413 | 4.4% |
| Gross profit | 984,033 | 1,000,438 | 1.7% | 1,107,715 | 1,108,130 | 0.0% | 1,092,005 | 1,155,117 | 5.8% |
| Op. income | 861,051 | 892,956 | 3.7% | 977,733 | 995,648 | 1.8% | 959,923 | 1,040,535 | 8.4% |
| Net income | 727,750 | 753,824 | 3.6% | 825,178 | 839,714 | 1.8% | 813,886 | 880,339 | 8.2% |
| EPS (NT$) | 28.06 | 29.07 | 3.6% | 31.82 | 32.38 | 1.8% | 31.38 | 33.95 | 8.2% |
| GM | 67.0% | 67.5% | 0.4% | 66.7% | 67.3% | 0.6% | 66.6% | 67.5% | 0.9% |
| OpM | 58.7% | 60.2% | 1.6% | 58.9% | 60.5% | 1.6% | 58.6% | 60.8% | 2.2% |
| NM | 49.6% | 50.8% | 1.3% | 49.7% | 51.0% | 1.3% | 49.7% | 51.4% | 1.8% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 10: TSMC's P&L summary
| 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L (NT$mn) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 1,134,103 | 1,270,380 | 1,482,698 | 1,645,937 | 1,711,413 | 1,846,140 | 1,962,887 | 2,096,519 | 5,533,119 | 7,616,958 | 9,935,012 |
| Gross profit | 751,295 | 860,311 | 1,000,438 | 1,108,130 | 1,155,117 | 1,248,183 | 1,328,068 | 1,408,746 | 3,720,174 | 5,140,114 | 6,739,653 |
| Operating profit | 658,966 | 766,603 | 892,956 | 995,648 | 1,040,535 | 1,128,701 | 1,201,686 | 1,274,964 | 3,314,172 | 4,645,886 | 6,105,525 |
| Net income | 572,480 | 706,562 | 753,824 | 839,714 | 880,339 | 938,351 | 1,005,103 | 1,066,130 | 2,872,580 | 3,889,923 | 5,074,175 |
| EPS (NT$) | 22.08 | 27.25 | 29.07 | 32.38 | 33.95 | 36.18 | 38.76 | 41.11 | 110.77 | 150.00 | 195.67 |
| Margins (%) | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 66.2% | 67.7% | 67.5% | 67.3% | 67.5% | 67.6% | 67.7% | 67.2% | 67.2% | 67.5% | 67.8% |
| Operating profit margin | 58.1% | 60.3% | 60.2% | 60.5% | 60.8% | 61.1% | 61.2% | 60.8% | 59.9% | 61.0% | 61.5% |
| Net margin | 50.5% | 55.6% | 50.8% | 51.0% | 51.4% | 50.8% | 51.2% | 50.9% | 51.9% | 51.1% | 51.1% |
| YoY (%) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 35.1% | 36.0% | 49.8% | 57.3% | 50.9% | 45.3% | 32.4% | 27.4% | 45.3% | 37.7% | 30.4% |
| Gross profit | 52.3% | 57.2% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 53.8% | 45.1% | 32.7% | 27.1% | 63.1% | 38.2% | 31.1% |
| Operating profit | 61.9% | 65.4% | 78.3% | 76.3% | 57.9% | 47.2% | 34.6% | 28.1% | 71.2% | 40.2% | 31.4% |
| Net income | 58.3% | 77.4% | 66.7% | 66.0% | 53.8% | 32.8% | 33.3% | 27.0% | 67.2% | 35.4% | 30.4% |
| EPS | 58.3% | 77.4% | 66.7% | 66.0% | 53.7% | 32.8% | 33.3% | 27.0% | 67.2% | 35.4% | 30.4% |
| QoQ (%) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 8.4% | 12.0% | 16.7% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | |||
| Gross profit | 15.2% | 14.5% | 16.3% | 10.8% | 4.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.1% | |||
| Operating profit | 16.7% | 16.3% | 16.5% | 11.5% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | |||
| Net income | 13.2% | 23.4% | 6.7% | 11.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | |||
| EPS | 13.2% | 23.4% | 6.7% | 11.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Reiterate Buy; TP raise to NT$3,300 from NT$3,100
We raise our 12m TP to NT$3,300 from NT$3,100 (2330.TW), following our upward earnings revisions. Our TP is based on a target P/E of 22x (unchanged, benchmarked to 1.0stdv above 5-year avg. forward P/E) applied to our higher 2027E EPS. Accordingly, we raise our 12 month TP for the ADR to US$660 from US$620, based on an unchanged FX
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Exhibit 11: TSMC vs. Taiex
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 13: Forward P/B
conversion of USD/TWD of 30.0 and unchanged ADR premium of 20%. Our 22x target P/E multiple is also benchmarked to TSMC's trading average of 22x during its previous revenue upcycle where its 3-year revenue CAGR (2019-2021) was 28%, vs. our 3-year revenue CAGR at 38% during 2025-2028E.
Our new TP implies 28% (ADR 40%) upside to the last close. As a result, we reiterate our Buy ratings for TSMC/ADR. We maintain our constructive view on TSMC's long-term growth outlook as we believe the company's solid technology leadership and execution better positions it vs. peers to capture the industry's long-term structural growth opportunities, especially in AI.
Exhibit 14: P/B vs. ROE
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
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Investment Thesis - TSMC (2330.TW/TSM)
TSMC is a leading global foundry company specializing in cutting-edge nodes. Its leading technology stance enables it to enjoy more than 60% revenue share in the global foundry market. We like TSMC as we believe its solid technology leadership and execution better position it vs. peers to capture the industry's long-term structural growth opportunities, particularly in areas such as AI/5G/HPC/EV. In addition, valuation looks attractive in our view, with the shares trading at the mid-range of their 10-year trading history (P/E: 10-29x). Furthermore, we view TSMC as the key AI enabler among our Taiwan Semis coverage, thanks to its leadership stance in leading edge nodes and advanced packaging technology - CoWoS (chip on wafer on substrate). We believe TSMC will achieve its 25% revenue CAGR target for the next several years, driven primarily by increasing silicon content growth and AI/HPC demand, with LT GM to remain at 56%+. We are Buy rated.
Price Target Risks and Methodology - TSMC (2330.TW/TSM)
Valuation methodology: We have a 12m TP of NT$3,300, which is derived by applying a target P/E multiple of 22x to our 2027E EPS. Our 22x target P/E is benchmarked against 1.0stdv above its 5-year trading average. For the ADR (TSM), we have a 12m TP of US$660, based on a USD/TWD rate of 30.0 and an ADR premium of 20%.
Key downside risks to our views: (1) further deterioration in end-demand recovery impacting capacity utilization; (2) slower customer node migrations; (3) slowdown in AI investment resulting in lower long-term semiconductor content growth; (4) poor yields/execution resulting in worse-than-expected profitability; (5) stronger competition resulting in ASP/profitability erosion; and (6) unfavorable FX trend or higher-than-expected cost increase weighing on the margin outlook.
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