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原始內容
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Chenbro (8210.TW): Chassis and Racks in expansion on AI infrastructure upcycle; Neutral
We are positive on Chenbro's leading market position in AI server chassis, riding on AI capex across US and China cloud service providers (CSPs), and expanding to full rack business (e.g. noise-cancellation racks, liquid cooling CDU racks, etc.). Chenbro's revenues in Sep increased by 1% MoM, and we expect the sequential increase to continue in Oct-Dec, bringing 4Q26E revenue growth to +58% YoY / +44% QoQ. Catalysts in 4Q26 include: (1) major ASIC AI servers customers' new models ramp-up, (2) rack business expansion on noise-cancellation racks ramping up and expansion to liquid cooling CDU racks, (3) AI servers powered by NVIDIA (e.g. HGX, MGX) in expansion with new chipset platforms, and (4) ongoing capacity expansion to support the revenues growth. Maintain Neutral on fair valuation.
Exhibit 1: Chenbro revenues by products and GM trend
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Exhibit 2: Chenbro monthly revenues preview
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26 (E) | Nov-26 (E) | Dec-26 (E) | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 2,462 | 2,457 | 2,476 | 2,847 | 3,417 | 4,418 | 7,395 | 10,681 |
| YoY | 42% | 41% | 14% | 43% | 68% | 63% | 31% | 58% |
| MoM / QoQ | -24% | 0% | 1% | 15% | 20% | 29% | -5% | 44% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 2,949 | 3,156 | 3,433 | 9,539 | ||||
| Act. Vs. GS. | -17% | -22% | -28% | -22% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision
Exhibit 4: Chenbro P&L
| NT$ mn | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 11,247 | 14,517 | 22,001 | 33,005 | 46,920 | 63,214 | 4,154 | 5,443 | 5,665 | 6,740 | 7,107 | 7,821 | 7,395 | 10,681 |
| Gross profit | 2,574 | 3,790 | 6,594 | 10,343 | 14,759 | 20,400 | 1,199 | 1,628 | 1,775 | 1,992 | 2,333 | 2,553 | 2,151 | 3,305 |
| OP income | 1,435 | 2,443 | 4,708 | 8,092 | 12,178 | 17,429 | 834 | 1,229 | 1,290 | 1,355 | 1,766 | 1,913 | 1,697 | 2,716 |
| Net income | 1,085 | 1,934 | 3,558 | 5,981 | 9,020 | 12,958 | 667 | 829 | 993 | 1,069 | 1,336 | 1,383 | 1,257 | 2,005 |
| EPS, diluted (NT$) | 8.95 | 15.48 | 28.41 | 47.12 | 71.08 | 102.12 | 5.33 | 6.64 | 7.93 | 8.51 | 10.52 | 10.90 | 9.91 | 15.80 |
| Ratios | ||||||||||||||
| Opex ratio | 10% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
| Tax rate | 23% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% |
| Margins | ||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 22.9% | 26.1% | 30.0% | 31.3% | 31.5% | 32.3% | 28.9% | 29.9% | 31.3% | 29.6% | 32.8% | 32.6% | 29.1% | 30.9% |
| Operating margin | 12.8% | 16.8% | 21.4% | 24.5% | 26.0% | 27.6% | 20.1% | 22.6% | 22.8% | 20.1% | 24.9% | 24.5% | 22.9% | 25.4% |
| Net margin | 9.7% | 13.3% | 16.2% | 18.1% | 19.2% | 20.5% | 16.1% | 15.2% | 17.5% | 15.9% | 18.8% | 17.7% | 17.0% | 18.8% |
| YoY | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 7% | 29% | 52% | 50% | 42% | 35% | 50% | 51% | 33% | 74% | 71% | 44% | 31% | 58% |
| Gross profit | 21% | 47% | 74% | 57% | 43% | 38% | 74% | 78% | 44% | 108% | 95% | 57% | 21% | 66% |
| OP income | 25% | 70% | 93% | 72% | 50% | 43% | 110% | 111% | 46% | 135% | 112% | 56% | 32% | 100% |
| Net income | 9% | 78% | 84% | 68% | 51% | 44% | 83% | 83% | 54% | 127% | 100% | 67% | 27% | 87% |
| QoQ | ||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 7% | 31% | 4% | 19% | 5% | 10% | -5% | 44% | ||||||
| Gross profit | 25% | 36% | 9% | 12% | 17% | 9% | -16% | 54% | ||||||
| OP income | 44% | 47% | 5% | 5% | 30% | 8% | -11% | 60% | ||||||
| Net income | 41% | 24% | 20% | 8% | 25% | 4% | -9% | 59% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Compared to Bloomberg consensus, we are 1%/12%/27% ahead on 2026E/ 27E/28E net income, reflecting our positive view on Chenbro's revenues expansion.
We lower net income by 8%/3%/4% in 2026-28E mainly on lower revenues to reflect the less-than-expected shipment of AI servers chassis and the 3Q26 revenues miss, which were 22%/15% lower than our estimates / Bloomberg consensus. We lower revenues by 7%/5%/6% in 2026-28E.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| NT$m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Diff % | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Diff % | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 35,520 | 33,005 | -7% | 49,221 | 46,920 | -5% | 67,376 | 63,214 | -6% |
| GP | 11,138 | 10,343 | -7% | 15,334 | 14,759 | -4% | 21,441 | 20,400 | -5% |
| OP | 8,796 | 8,092 | -8% | 12,627 | 12,178 | -4% | 18,274 | 17,429 | -5% |
| Net income | 6,521 | 5,981 | -8% | 9,324 | 9,020 | -3% | 13,564 | 12,958 | -4% |
| EPS (diluted) | 51.3 | 47.1 | -8% | 73.4 | 71.1 | -3% | 106.8 | 102.1 | -4% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 31.4% | 31.3% | 31.2% | 31.5% | 31.8% | 32.3% | |||
| OPM | 24.8% | 24.5% | 25.7% | 26.0% | 27.1% | 27.6% | |||
| NM | 18.4% | 18.1% | 18.9% | 19.2% | 20.1% | 20.5% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Valuation
Exhibit 5: GS vs. Bloomberg consensus
| NT$m | 2026E - GS | 2026E - Cons. | 2026E - Diff % | 2027E - GS | 2027E - Cons. | 2027E - Diff % | 2028E - GS | 2028E - Cons. | 2028E - Diff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 33,005 | 33,345 | -1% | 46,920 | 45,332 | 4% | 63,214 | 58,292 | 8% |
| GP | 10,343 | 10,611 | -3% | 14,759 | 13,955 | 6% | 20,400 | 17,081 | 19% |
| OP | 8,092 | 7,972 | 2% | 12,178 | 10,755 | 13% | 17,429 | 13,934 | 25% |
| Net income | 5,981 | 5,930 | 1% | 9,020 | 8,063 | 12% | 12,958 | 10,232 | 27% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 31.3% | 31.8% | 31.5% | 30.8% | 32.3% | 29.3% | |||
| OPM | 24.5% | 23.9% | 26.0% | 23.7% | 27.6% | 23.9% | |||
| NM | 18.1% | 17.8% | 19.2% | 17.8% | 20.5% | 17.6% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
We continue to use near-term P/E to derive our 12m TP. We derive our target P/E multiple from (1) peers' avg. ratio of trading P/E to forward year fundamentals (NI YoY and OPM), which is at 0.3x, and (2) Chenbro's forward year fundamentals: 2027-28E NI YoY now at 47% on avg. and OPM is at 26.8% on avg. Our new target P/E multiple is at 21.2x (vs. 20.2x of our previous TP implied 2027E P/E). Our previous target P/E multiple to forward year fundamentals was also 0.3x. Our new target P/E multiple of 21.2x is between the company's avg.+1stv. P/E of 17x and peak P/E of 26x, reflecting our positive view on its expansion toward AI servers. Accordingly, we raise our target price by 1.7% to NT$1,507 (21.2x 2027E P/E) from NT$1,482.
Exhibit 6: Chenbro peers comparison
| Company | Ticker | Rating | 2027E PE | 2027-28E NI YoY | 2027-28E OPM | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chenbro | 8210.TW | Neutral | 12.3 | 47% | 26.8% | 0.2 |
| Chenbro (TP implied) | 8210.TW | Neutral | 21.2 | 47% | 26.8% | 0.3 |
| Peers | ||||||
| Karrie | 1050.HK | NC | 7.5 | 31% | 12% | 0.2 |
| King Slide | 2059.TW | Buy | 31.3 | 37% | 72.1% | 0.3 |
| AVC | 3017.TW | Buy | 20.9 | 32% | 25.4% | 0.4 |
| Repon | 6584.TW | NC | 26.9 | 64% | 44.3% | 0.2 |
| Auras | 3324.TWO | Buy | 14.2 | 23% | 19.1% | 0.3 |
| Fositek | 6805.TW | Buy | 17.7 | 32% | 26.1% | 0.3 |
| AVG. | 19.7 | 36% | 33% | 0.3 |
NC: Not Covered - estimates are from Bloomberg consensus
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
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Exhibit 7: Chenbro 12M forward P/E ratio
Exhibit 8: Chenbro QFII holdings
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg Source: TEJ
Price Target Risks and Methodology: Chenbro
Valuation: We use near-term P/E to derive our 12-month target price for Chenbro, consistent with our Taiwan Technology coverage. We base our target price of NT$1,507 on a target P/E multiple of 21.2x on forward year EPS (2027E). Our target P/E of 21.2x is derived from the peers' avg. ratio of trading P/E to forward year fundamentals (NI YoY and OPM). We have a Neutral rating on Chenbro on fair valuation. Key upside / downside risks: faster / slower-than-expected AI infrastructure investments, faster / slower-than-expected rack business ramp-up, or healthier / fiercer-than-expected competition.
| 8210.TW | 12m Price Target: NT$1,507.00 GS Forecast | Price: NT$874.00 | Upside: 72.4% | Upside: 72.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | Neutral | |||
| Market cap: NT$110.9bn / $3.5bn Enterprise value: NT$108.3bn / $3.4bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.5bn / $45.7mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) EPS (NT$) New EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) CROCI (%) | 12/25 12/26E 22,001.3 33,004.6 | 12/27E 46,919.8 | 12/28E 63,213.7 |
| Market cap: NT$110.9bn / $3.5bn Enterprise value: NT$108.3bn / $3.4bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.5bn / $45.7mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | 22,001.3 | 49,221.2 | 67,376.5 | |
| Market cap: NT$110.9bn / $3.5bn Enterprise value: NT$108.3bn / $3.4bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.5bn / $45.7mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | 35,519.7 5,095.5 8,549.3 | 12,660.9 | 17,932.7 | |
| Market cap: NT$110.9bn / $3.5bn Enterprise value: NT$108.3bn / $3.4bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.5bn / $45.7mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | 28.41 47.12 | 71.08 | 102.12 | |
| Market cap: NT$110.9bn / $3.5bn Enterprise value: NT$108.3bn / $3.4bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.5bn / $45.7mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | 28.41 51.33 | 73.39 | 106.76 | |
| Market cap: NT$110.9bn / $3.5bn Enterprise value: NT$108.3bn / $3.4bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.5bn / $45.7mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | 18.1 18.5 | 12.3 | 8.6 | |
| Market cap: NT$110.9bn / $3.5bn Enterprise value: NT$108.3bn / $3.4bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.5bn / $45.7mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | 5.9 8.0 | 6.0 | 4.4 | |
| Market cap: NT$110.9bn / $3.5bn Enterprise value: NT$108.3bn / $3.4bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.5bn / $45.7mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | 2.7 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.8 | |
| Market cap: NT$110.9bn / $3.5bn Enterprise value: NT$108.3bn / $3.4bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.5bn / $45.7mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | 47.6 54.8 | 71.3 | 92.5 | |
| Market cap: NT$110.9bn / $3.5bn Enterprise value: NT$108.3bn / $3.4bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.5bn / $45.7mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | 3/26 6/26E | 9/26E | 12/26E | |
| Market cap: NT$110.9bn / $3.5bn Enterprise value: NT$108.3bn / $3.4bn 3m ADTV: NT$1.5bn / $45.7mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | EPS (NT$) | 10.52 10.90 | 9.91 | 15.80 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 8 Oct 2026 close.
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