PDF 原檔：報告_GS_全新2455_20260907_original.pdf
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VPEC (2455.TW)
Aug revenue strong beat; Product mix upgrade leading to margin expansion; Buy with 12M TP raised to NT$793
2455.TW
12m Pri c e Target:
NT$793.00
Pri c e:
NT$500.00
Upside:
58.6%
VPEC's Jul and Aug revenue delivered double digit YoY growth, or 23% / 25% higher than our estimate, re fl ecting strong AI data center optical networking demand, InP substrate supply getting better, and VPEC's continuous customers penetration. We expect sequential revenues growth through Dec 2026, leading 3Q26 / 4Q26E revenues at 44% / 23% QoQ, and the product mix upgrade toward AI data center optical networking would continue to drive the GM expansion. VPEC's July net margin up to 27% from 18% / 22% in 3Q25 / 2Q26, re fl ecting the strong product mix upgrade. Maintain Buy with 12M TP raised to NT$793 (implied 69x 2027E PE vs. +61% NI YoY in 2027-28E). Read more: Global Optical Module TAM.
BUY
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Yifan Hu
+852-2978-0996 | yifan.hu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Key Data _____________________________________
Market cap: NT$93.8bn / $3.0bn
Enterprise value: NT$93.0bn / $2.9bn
3m ADTV: NT$4.0bn / $126.6mn
Taiwan
Greater China Technology
M&A Rank: 3
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue(NT$mn) New | 3,380.1 | 5,009.3 | 7,437.4 | 10,934.4 |
| Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 3,380.1 | 4,688.2 | 6,532.3 | 8,713.5 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 960.2 | 1,827.8 | 2,970.7 | 4,413.2 |
| EPS(NT$) New | 2.95 | 6.84 | 11.43 | 17.66 |
| EPS (NT$) Old | 2.95 | 6.12 | 9.65 | 13.63 |
| P/E (X) | 46.4 | 73.1 | 43.7 | 28.3 |
| P/B (X) | 7.7 | 27.3 | 25.6 | 23.4 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.9 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.2 |
| CROCI (%) | 11.5 | 21.8 | 33.7 | 51.3 |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |
| EPS (NT$) | 1.14 | 1.89 | 2.77 | 2.35 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to ed as research e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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BUY
VPEC (2455.TW) Rating since Feb 13, 2025
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 46.4 | 73.1 | 43.7 | 28.3 |
| P/B (X) | 7.7 | 27.3 | 25.6 | 23.4 |
| FCF yield (%) | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| EV/EBITDAR (X) | 26.0 | 50.2 | 30.7 | 20.4 |
| EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) | 26.0 | 50.2 | 30.7 | 20.4 |
| CROCI (%) | 11.5 | 21.8 | 33.7 | 51.3 |
| ROE (%) | 16.5 | 38.1 | 60.5 | 86.4 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (10.5) | (21.5) | (34.2) | (65.6) |
| Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) | (10.5) | (21.5) | (34.2) | (65.6) |
| Interest cover (X) | 73.5 | 63.1 | 109.0 | 169.8 |
| Days inventory outst, sales | 71.5 | 54.2 | 48.7 | 46.0 |
| Receivable days | 48.6 | 43.0 | 42.0 | 41.0 |
| Days p ayable outstandin g | 108.4 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 |
| DuPont ROE (%) | 16.6 | 37.4 | 58.6 | 82.7 |
| Turnover (X) | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| L evera g e (X) | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| G ross cas h invested (ex cas h ) (NT $ ) | 7,330.5 | 7,385.3 | 7,453.1 | 6,765.2 |
| Avera g e ca p ital e mp loyed (NT $ ) | 2,801.6 | 2,820.6 | 2,548.2 | 1,891.4 |
| BVP S (NT $ ) | 17.72 | 18.29 | 19.50 | 21.37 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | 4 . 3 | 48 . 2 | 48 . 5 | 47 . 0 |
| EBITDA growth | (4 . 9) | 90 . 4 | 62 . 5 | 48 . 6 |
| EPS growth | ( 1 8 . 5) | 1 32 .1 | 67 .1 | 54 . 5 |
| DPS growth | ( 1 7 . 4) | 1 32 .1 | 67 .1 | 54 . 5 |
| EBIT margin | 1 9 . 8 | 30 . 2 | 35 . 2 | 37 . 3 |
| EBITDA margin | 28 . 4 | 36 . 5 | 39 . 9 | 40 . 4 |
| Net income margin | 1 6 . 2 | 25 . 6 | 28 . 8 | 30 . 3 |
Price Performance __________________________________________
Source: FactSet. Price as of 7 Sep 2026 close.
Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| To t a l r e v e nu e | 3 ,380 . 1 | 5,009 . 3 | 7,437 . 4 | 10,934 . 4 |
| Cost of goods sold | ( 2 ,160 . 4) | ( 2 ,857 . 4) | (3,935 . 3) | (5,5 2 9 . 5) |
| SG&A | (167 . 0) | (196 . 1) | ( 2 75 . 9) | (379 . 4) |
| R&D | (383 . 4) | (441 . 0) | (609 . 9) | (951 . 3) |
| Other operating inc . /(exp . ) E BITDA | -- 9 6 0. 2 | -- 1 , 827 . 8 | -- 2 ,9 7 0. 7 | -- 4,4 1 3. 2 |
| Depreciation& amortization | ( 2 91 . 0) | (313 . 0) | (354 . 4) | (339 . 0) |
| E BIT | 66 9.3 | , 51 4. 8 | 2 , 616 .3 | 4,0 7 4. 2 |
| Net interest inc . /(exp . ) | 10 . 5 | 1 (7 . | 0 . 1 | 9 . 3 |
| Income/(loss) from associates | -- | 9) -- | -- | -- 4, 1 3 5 . 6 |
| Pre-tax pro fi t | 667 .4 (119 . 4) | 1 , 571 . 5 ( 2 88 . 8) | 2 , 676 .4 (53 2. 6) | (8 2 3 . 0) |
| Provision for taxes Minority interest | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Preferred dividends | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| N et inc . ( pre-ex c ept i o n a ls) | 5 4 7 .9 | 1 , 282 . 7 | 3,3 12 . | |
| Post-tax exceptionals | -- | -- | 2 , 1 43. 8 -- | 6 -- |
| N et inc . ( po s t-ex c ept i o n a ls) | 5 4 7 .9 | 1 , 282 . 7 | 2 , 1 43. 8 | 3,3 12 . 6 |
| E P S(b a sic , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 2 .9 6 | 6 .94 | 11 . 5 9 | 17 .9 1 |
| E P S(dilu te d , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 2 .9 5 | 6 . 8 4 | 11 .43 | 17 . 66 |
| E P S(b a sic , po s t-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 2 .9 6 | 6 .94 | 11 . 5 9 | 17 .9 1 |
| E P S(dilu te d , po s t-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 2 .9 5 | 6 . 8 4 | 11 .43 | 17 . 66 |
| DPS (NT$) | 2. 63 | 6 . 1 2 | 10 .22 | 15 . 79 |
| Div . payout ratio (%) | 89 . | 88 .2 | 88 | 88 .2 |
| Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) | 0 | .2 | ______ | |
| C a sh& c a sh equiv a lents | 12/25 945.0 | 12/26E 1,338.8 | 12/27E 1,852.2 | 12/28E 3,229.3 1,406.6 |
| Accounts receiv a ble Inventory | 518.6 | 661.7 781.4 | 1,049.9 1,202.4 | 1,554.7 |
| Other current a | 706.0 137.3 | 137.3 | 137.3 | 137.3 |
| ssets Total current assets | 2 , 3 0 6 .9 | 2 ,9 1 9. 2 | 4, 2 4 1 . 8 | 6 , 327 .9 |
| Net PP&E | 2,315.2 | 2,861.6 | 2,807.5 | 2,788.3 8.1 |
| Net int a ngibles | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.0 | |
| Tot a l investments Other long-term a | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 46.7 |
| ssets Total assets | 46.7 4, 676 . 7 | 46.7 5 , 835 .4 | 46.7 7 , 1 0 3 .9 | 9, 171 .0 |
| Accounts p a y a ble | 662.5 | 1,028.5 | 1,300.4 | 1,971.9 |
| Short-term debt | -- | -- | -- | -- -- |
| Short-term le a se li a bilities | -- | -- | -- | 2,588.1 |
| Other current li a bilities | 115.8 | 772.9 | 1,542.9 | 4, 56 0.0 |
| Total current liabilities | 778 . 3 | 1 , 8 0 1 .4 | 2 , 8 4 3 . 3 | 600.0 |
| L ong-term debt L ong-term le a se li a bilities | 600.0 -- | 600.0 -- | 600.0 -- | -- |
| Other long-term li a bilities | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Total long-term liabilities | 6 0 3 . 6 | 6 0 3 . 6 | 6 0 3 . 6 | 6 0 3 . 6 |
| Total liabilities Preferred sh a res | 1 , 382 .0 -- | 2 ,40 5 . 1 -- | 3 ,44 6 .9 -- | 5 , 163 . 7 -- |
| Tot a l commonequity | 3,294.7 | 3,430.3 | 3,657.0 0.0 | 4,007.3 -- |
| Minority interest | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| 676 . | , 835 | 7 , 1 0 3 .9 | 9, 171 .0 | |
| Total liabilities &equity | 4, 7 | 5 .4 | ||
| Net debt, a djusted | (345.0) | (738.8) | (1,252.2) | (2,629.3) |
| Cash Flow (NT$ mn) | __________ 12/25 | 12/26E 1,282.7 | 12/27E | 12/28E 3,312.6 |
| Net income D&Aadd-back | 547. 9 2 9 1.0 | 313.0 | 2,143.8 354.4 | 33 9 .0 |
| Minority interest add-back Net (inc)/dec working | -- (184.1) | -- | -- | -- (37.4) |
| capital Other operating cash flow | (15.2) 6 3 9 . 6 | 147.5 | (537.4) | -- |
| Cash flow fro m operations | -- 1 , 7 43. 2 | -- 1 , 96 0. 8 | 3, 61 4. 2 | |
| Capital expenditures | (361.1) -- | (856.6) -- | (2 9 7.5) -- | (317.1) -- |
| Acquisitions Divestitures | -- | -- | -- | |
| -- | (2.8) | |||
| Others Cash flow fro m investing | (2.6) (3 6 3. 7 ) | (2.8) ( 859 .4) | (300.3) | (2.8) (3 19 . 9 ) |
| -- | ||||
| Repayment of lease liabilities | -- | -- | -- | 9 17.1) |
| Dividends paid(common& pref) | (5 9 1.7) 100.0 | (4 9 0.0) | (1,147.1) | (1, 0.0 |
| Inc/(dec) in debt Other financing cash | (15.0) | 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 917 . 1 ) |
| flows Cash flow fro m financing | ( 5 0 6 . 7 ) | (4 9 0.0) 3 9 3. | ( 1 , 1 4 7 . 1 ) 51 | 1 , 1 ,3 77 . 2 |
| Total cash flow | ( 2 30. 8 ) | 8 | 3.3 | ( |
| 7.1 | ||||
| Free cash flow | 278.4 | 886.7 | 1,663.3 | 3,2 9 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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Exhibit 1: VPEC revenues by products and GM trend
Exhibit 2: VPEC Jul 2026 net income
| NT$m 3Q25 2Q26 Jul-26 Rev 913 965 422 Net income 160 214 116 NM (%) 18% 22% 27% |
|---|
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Company data
Exhibit 3: VPEC 2Q26 results snapshot
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 (E) | Oct-26 (E) | Nov-26 (E) | Dec-26 (E) | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 422 | 471 | 493 | 518 | 559 | 622 | 1,386 | 1,699 |
| YoY | 45% | 71% | 42% | 46% | 96% | 95% | 52% | 77% |
| MoM/QoQ | 29% | 12% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 44% | 23% |
| GS (NT$m) | 342 | 377 | ||||||
| Actual vs. GS | 23% | 25% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Earnings revision: We factor in VPEC's Jul-Aug revenues and raise our 2026-28E net incomes by 12% / 18% / 30%, mainly on higher revenues and GMs. 2026-28E revenues are revised up by 7% / 14% / 25%, mainly on higher contribution from optoelectronics business, driven by the strong end demand of AI data center optical networking, better InP substrate supply, and VPEC's customers' expansion and product expansion from CW lasers to EML, along with speci fi cation upgrade. Our 2026-28E GMs are revised up on rising contribution from optoelectronics business, which carries a higher margin than other product lines. We revise up 2027-28E opex ratios, mainly on higher R&D expense to collaborate with key customers on next generation optical networking products.
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Exhibit 4: Earnings revision
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT$m | Old | New | Diff% | Old | New | Diff% | Old | New | Diff% |
| Revenues | 4,688 | 5,009 | 7% | 6,532 | 7,437 | 14% | 8,714 | 10,934 | 25% |
| GP | 1,945 | 2,152 | 11% | 2,965 | 3,502 | 18% | 4,132 | 5,405 | 31% |
| OP | 1,346 | 1,515 | 13% | 2,201 | 2,616 | 19% | 3,133 | 4,074 | 30% |
| Net income | 1,148 | 1,283 | 12% | 1,811 | 2,144 | 18% | 2,556 | 3,313 | 30% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 41.5% | 43.0% | 45.4% | 47.1% | 47.4% | 49.4% | |||
| OPM | 28.7% | 30.2% | 33.7% | 35.2% | 36.0% | 37.3% | |||
| NM | 24.5% | 25.6% | 27.7% | 28.8% | 29.3% | 30.3% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 5: Changes by products
| CHG | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E GM | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW | 5,009 | 7,437 | 10,934 NEW | 43% | 47% | 49% |
| Microelectronics - Android PA epi-wafer | 1,154 | 1,104 | 1,057 Microelectronics - Android PA epi-wafer | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Microelectronics - iPhone PA epi-wafer | 719 | 726 | 730 Microelectronics - iPhone PA epi-wafer | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Microelectronics -WiFi and others epi-wafer | 877 | 1,053 | 1,264 Microelectronics -WiFi and others epi-wafer | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Optoelectronics - Silicon Photonics epi-wafer | 1,445 | 3,476 | 6,546 Optoelectronics - Silicon Photonics epi-wafer | 59% | 58% | 57% |
| Optoelectronics - Data center (ex SiPh) epi-wafer | 603 | 868 | 1,128 Optoelectronics - Data center (ex SiPh) epi-wafer | 56% | 56% | 55% |
| Optoelectronics - Non Data center epi-wafer | 210 | 210 | 210 Optoelectronics - Non Data center epi-wafer | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| OLD | 4,688 | 6,532 | 8,714 OLD | 41% | 45% | 47% |
| Microelectronics - Android PA epi-wafer | 1,225 | 1,154 | 1,091 Microelectronics - Android PA epi-wafer | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Microelectronics - iPhone PA epi-wafer | 719 | 726 | 730 Microelectronics - iPhone PA epi-wafer | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Microelectronics -WiFi and others epi-wafer | 872 | 1,046 | 1,255 Microelectronics -WiFi and others epi-wafer | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Optoelectronics - Silicon Photonics epi-wafer | 1,059 | 2,528 | 4,299 Optoelectronics - Silicon Photonics epi-wafer | 59% | 58% | 57% |
| Optoelectronics - Data center (ex SiPh) epi-wafer | 603 | 868 | 1,128 Optoelectronics - Data center (ex SiPh) epi-wafer | 56% | 56% | 55% |
| Optoelectronics - Non Data center epi-wafer | 210 | 210 | 210 Optoelectronics - Non Data center epi-wafer | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| CHG | 7% | 14% | 25% CHG | 1.5ppts | 1.7ppts | 2ppts |
| Microelectronics - Android PA epi-wafer | -6% | -4% | -3% Microelectronics - Android PA epi-wafer | 0ppts | 0ppts | 0ppts |
| Microelectronics - iPhone PA epi-wafer | 0% | 0% | 0% Microelectronics - iPhone PA epi-wafer | 0ppts | 0ppts | 0ppts |
| Microelectronics -WiFi and others epi-wafer | 1% | 1% | 1% Microelectronics -WiFi and others epi-wafer | 0ppts | 0ppts | 0ppts |
| Optoelectronics - Silicon Photonics epi-wafer | 36% | 38% | 52% Optoelectronics - Silicon Photonics epi-wafer | 0ppts | 0ppts | 0ppts |
| Optoelectronics - Data center (ex SiPh) epi-wafer | 0% | 0% | 0% Optoelectronics - Data center (ex SiPh) epi-wafer | 0ppts | 0ppts | 0ppts |
| Optoelectronics - Non Data center epi-wafer | 0% | 0% | 0% Optoelectronics - Non Data center epi-wafer | 0ppts | 0ppts | 0ppts |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
GS vs. Bloomberg consensus: Our 2026-27E revenues are higher than Bloomberg consensus, re fl ecting our positive view on VPEC's optoelectronics business growth. Our 2026-27E GMs are higher than Bloomberg consensus, mainly on product mix upgrade towards optoelectronics. Overall, our 2026-37E net incomes are 27% / 26% higher than Bloomberg consensus.
Exhibit 6: GS vs. Bloomberg consensus
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT$m | GS | Cons. | Diff% | GS | Cons. | Diff% |
| Revenues | 5,009 | 4,391 | 14% | 7,437 | 6,177 | 20% |
| GP | 2,152 | 1,786 | 20% | 3,502 | 2,737 | 28% |
| OP | 1,515 | 1,196 | 27% | 2,616 | 2,052 | 27% |
| Net income | 1,283 | 1,010 | 27% | 2,144 | 1,695 | 26% |
| Margins | ||||||
| GM | 43.0% | 40.4% | 47.1% | 43.3% | ||
| OPM | 30.2% | 27.2% | 35.2% | 33.2% | ||
| NM | 25.6% | 23.0% | 28.8% | 27.4% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Valuation: We continue to derive target price from 2029E P/E discounted back to 2027E at 10.5% COE (no change), and derive target PE multiple from refreshed peers' trading P/E vs. forward year fundamentals (NI YoY and OPM). Based on our updated 2029-30E NI YoY of 18% (vs. 20% previously) and 2029-30E OPM of 38% (vs. 37% previously), and peers' PEG&M of 0.4x (vs. 0.3x previously), we derive target PE multiple at 22.2x (vs. 18.2x previously), re fl ecting the sector re-rating on new AI server racks ramp up driving optical modules speci fi cation upgrade, and InP substrate supply getting better. Our new e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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12-month target price is at NT$793 (vs. NT$505 previously). Our new TP implies 2027E P/E at 69x (52x previously), within the company's trading range (vs. peak at 74x, and +1stv. at 46x). Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 7: VPEC peers comparison
| Ticker | Company | Rating | 2027E P/E | 2027-28E NI YoY | 2027-28E OPM | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3081.TWO | LandMark | Buy | 89.6 | 82% | 48% | 0.7 |
| 688498.SS | YJ Semi | Neutral | 215.0 | 82% | 51% | 1.6 |
| 5802.JT | Sumitomo | Buy | 15.5 | 21% | 10% | 0.5 |
| LITE | Lumentum | NC | 30.3 | 80% | 41% | 0.2 |
| COHR | Coherent | NC | 24.5 | 45% | 24% | 0.4 |
| 6503.JT | Mitsubishi | Buy | 14.2 | 24% | 18% | 0.3 |
| 300502.SZ | Eoptolink | Buy | 16.8 | 33% | 46% | 0.2 |
| Avg. (excl. outliers) | Avg. (excl. outliers) | 35.3 | 52% | 34% | 0.4 | |
| 2029E P/E | 2029-30E NI YoY | 2029-30E OPM | PEG&M | |||
| 2455.TW | VPEC | Buy | 22.2 | 18% | 38% | 0.4 |
Outliers are in grey. NC companies' estimates are from Bloomberg consensus
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 8: VPEC discounted PE
| (NT$mn) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SiPh Rev contribution | 1% | 6% | 29% | 47% | 60% | ||||
| SiPh GP contribution | 1% | 8% | 39% | 58% | 69% | ||||
| Revenue | 2,604 | 2,694 | 3,241 | 3,380 | 5,009 | 7,437 | 10,934 | 13,285 | 15,145 |
| YoY | -28% | 3% | 20% | 4% | 48% | 48% | 47% | 22% | 14% |
| Gross margin | 41.8% | 41.2% | 39.5% | 36.1% | 43.0% | 47.1% | 49.4% | 49.6% | 49.8% |
| Operating profit | 580 | 542 | 721 | 669 | 1,515 | 2,616 | 4,074 | 4,977 | 5,704 |
| YoY | -45% | -7% | 33% | -7% | 126% | 73% | 56% | 22% | 15% |
| Operating margin | 22% | 20% | 22% | 20% | 30% | 35% | 37% | 37% | 38% |
| Pre-tax profit | 667 | 542 | 818 | 667 | 1,572 | 2,676 | 4,136 | 5,038 | 5,765 |
| Net profit | 545 | 450 | 671 | 548 | 1,283 | 2,144 | 3,313 | 4,036 | 4,618 |
| EPS (NT$, diluted) | 2.93 | 2.43 | 3.62 | 2.95 | 6.84 | 11.43 | 17.66 | 43.61 | 49.91 |
| YoY | -36% | -17% | 49% | -18% | 134% | 67% | 55% | 22% | 14% |
| TP implied P/E | 271 | 326 | 219 | 269 | 116 | 69 | 45 | 18 | 16 |
2029E target P/E
Target multiple x EPS
Discounted back to 2027; TP (NTD)
Implied 2027 P/E
22.2
968
793.0
69.4
| COE assumption | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.7 |
| Risk free | 1.6% |
| Market risk premium | 5.1% |
| COE | 10.5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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Exhibit 9: VPEC 12M forward PE ratio
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 10: VPEC P&L summary
| NT$ mn | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 2,604 | 2,694 | 3,241 | 3,380 | 5,009 | 7,437 | 10,934 | 794 | 714 | 913 | 960 | 959 | 965 | 1,386 | 1,699 |
| Gross profit | 1,089 | 1,109 | 1,279 | 1,220 | 2,152 | 3,502 | 5,405 | 317 | 246 | 300 | 358 | 365 | 373 | 609 | 805 |
| OP income | 580 | 542 | 721 | 669 | 1,515 | 2,616 | 4,074 | 179 | 122 | 159 | 209 | 227 | 224 | 429 | 635 |
| Net income | 545 | 450 | 671 | 548 | 1,283 | 2,144 | 3,313 | 157 | 36 | 160 | 194 | 195 | 214 | 354 | 520 |
| EPS (NT$) | 2.93 | 2.43 | 3.62 | 2.95 | 6.84 | 11.43 | 17.66 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 0.86 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.14 | 1.89 | 2.77 |
| Ratios | |||||||||||||||
| R&D to rev | 13.8% | 15.9% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 6.9% |
| Opex ratio | 19.6% | 21.0% | 17.2% | 16.3% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 17.3% | 17.3% | 15.4% | 15.5% | 14.5% | 15.4% | 13.0% | 10.0% |
| Tax rate | 18.4% | 16.9% | 17.9% | 17.9% | 18.4% | 19.9% | 19.9% | 20.0% | -48.8% | 19.9% | 21.2% | 19.9% | 9.8% | 19.9% | 19.9% |
| Margins | |||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 41.8% | 41.2% | 39.5% | 36.1% | 43.0% | 47.1% | 49.4% | 39.9% | 34.4% | 32.9% | 37.3% | 38.1% | 38.6% | 43.9% | 47.4% |
| Operating margin | 22.3% | 20.1% | 22.3% | 19.8% | 30.2% | 35.2% | 37.3% | 22.6% | 17.1% | 17.4% | 21.8% | 23.6% | 23.2% | 31.0% | 37.4% |
| Net margin | 20.9% | 16.7% | 20.7% | 16.2% | 25.6% | 28.8% | 30.3% | 19.8% | 5.1% | 17.6% | 20.2% | 20.3% | 22.1% | 25.5% | 30.6% |
| YoY | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | -28% | 3% | 20% | 4% | 48% | 48% | 47% | -5% | -18% | 13% | 33% | 21% | 35% | 52% | 77% |
| Gross profit | -28% | 2% | 15% | -5% | 76% | 63% | 54% | -7% | -29% | -9% | 37% | 15% | 52% | 103% | 125% |
| OP income | -45% | -7% | 33% | -7% | 126% | 73% | 56% | -10% | -41% | -18% | 71% | 27% | 83% | 170% | 204% |
| Net income | -36% | -17% | 49% | -18% | 134% | 67% | 55% | -18% | -82% | 11% | 46% | 24% | 488% | 121% | 168% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 10% | -10% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 44% | 23% | |||||||
| Gross profit | 22% | -22% | 22% | 19% | 2% | 2% | 63% | 32% | |||||||
| OP income | 47% | -32% | 30% | 31% | 8% | -1% | 92% | 48% | |||||||
| Net income | 18% | -77% | 342% | 21% | 1% | 9% | 66% | 47% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Exhibit 11: VPEC balance sheet
| NT$ mn | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance Sheet | |||||||
| Cash and equivalents | 753 | 826 | 1,176 | 945 | 1,339 | 1,852 | 3,229 |
| Accounts receivable | 292 | 623 | 381 | 519 | 662 | 1,050 | 1,407 |
| Inventory | 487 | 505 | 619 | 706 | 781 | 1,202 | 1,555 |
| Other current assets | 88 | 92 | 108 | 137 | 137 | 137 | 137 |
| Current assets | 1,620 | 2,045 | 2,284 | 2,307 | 2,919 | 4,242 | 6,328 |
| Net PP&E/Fixed assets | 2,712 | 2,490 | 2,262 | 2,315 | 2,862 | 2,807 | 2,788 |
| Net intangibles | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Other long-term assets | 74 | 35 | 30 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 |
| Non-current assets | 2,792 | 2,532 | 2,299 | 2,370 | 2,916 | 2,862 | 2,843 |
| Total assets | 4,412 | 4,578 | 4,583 | 4,677 | 5,835 | 7,104 | 9,171 |
| Accounts payable | 468 | 630 | 621 | 662 | 1,029 | 1,300 | 1,972 |
| Short-term debt | 200 | 100 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other current liabilities | 64 | 69 | 125 | 116 | 773 | 1,543 | 2,588 |
| Current liabilities | 732 | 799 | 747 | 778 | 1,801 | 2,843 | 4,560 |
| Long-term debt | 590 | 700 | 500 | 600 | 600 | 600 | 600 |
| Other long-term liabilities | 7 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Non-current liabilities | 597 | 709 | 507 | 604 | 604 | 604 | 604 |
| Total liabilities | 1,329 | 1,508 | 1,254 | 1,382 | 2,405 | 3,447 | 5,164 |
| Common stock | 1,866 | 1,866 | 1,866 | 1,879 | 1,879 | 1,879 | 1,879 |
| Retained earnings | 1,217 | 1,242 | 1,506 | 1,462 | 1,598 | 1,824 | 2,175 |
| Other common equity | - | (38) | (42) | (46) | (46) | (46) | (46) |
| Total common equity | 3,083 | 3,069 | 3,329 | 3,295 | 3,430 | 3,657 | 4,007 |
| Minority interest | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Total equity | 3,083 | 3,069 | 3,329 | 3,295 | 3,430 | 3,657 | 4,007 |
| BVPS | 16.57 | 16.56 | 17.95 | 17.72 | 18.29 | 19.50 | 21.37 |
| Cash conversion cycle | |||||||
| Account receivable days | 62 | 62 | 57 | 49 | 43 | 42 | 41 |
| Inventory days | 109 | 114 | 104 | 112 | 95 | 92 | 91 |
| Net payable days | 144 | 126 | 116 | 108 | 108 | 108 | 108 |
| Cash conversion cycle | 26 | 50 | 45 | 52 | 30 | 26 | 24 |
| Ratios | |||||||
| ROE (common equity) | 17% | 15% | 21% | 17% | 38% | 60% | 86% |
| ROA | 12% | 10% | 15% | 12% | 24% | 33% | 41% |
| Net debt to total equity | 1% | -1% | -20% | -10% | -22% | -34% | -66% |
| Net cash per share (NTD) | (0.20) | 0.14 | 3.66 | 1.86 | 4.00 | 6.77 | 14.22 |
| Total liabilities to total assets | 30% | 33% | 27% | 30% | 41% | 49% | 56% |
| Dupont analysis | |||||||
| Asset turnover | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Leverage (assets to equity) | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 21% | 17% | 21% | 16% | 26% | 29% | 30% |
| ROE (total equity) | 17% | 15% | 21% | 17% | 38% | 60% | 86% |
| ROE (common equity) | 17% | 15% | 21% | 17% | 38% | 60% | 86% |
| ROA | 12% | 10% | 15% | 12% | 24% | 33% | 41% |
| CROCI (EDBITA/total equity) | 27% | 27% | 30% | 29% | 53% | 81% | 110% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Exhibit 12: VPEC cash fl ow statement
| NT$ mn | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash flow statement | |||||||
| Net income | 545 | 450 | 671 | 548 | 1,283 | 2,144 | 3,313 |
| Minority interest add-back | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation and amortization add-back | 243 | 284 | 288 | 291 | 313 | 354 | 339 |
| (Increase)/decrease in working capital | (39) | (186) | 119 | (184) | 148 | (537) | (37) |
| Other operating cash flow items | (106) | 24 | 8 | (15) | - | - | - |
| Cash flow from operating | 644 | 572 | 1,086 | 640 | 1,743 | 1,961 | 3,614 |
| Capital expenditure | (418) | (71) | (44) | (361) | (857) | (297) | (317) |
| Other investment cash flow items | (52) | (0) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| Cash flow from investing | (470) | (71) | (47) | (364) | (859) | (300) | (320) |
| Dividends paid | (740) | (425) | (407) | (592) | (490) | (1,147) | (1,917) |
| Change in common stock | - | - | - | 13 | - | - | - |
| Increase/(decrease) in short-term debt | (280) | (100) | (100) | - | - | - | - |
| Increase/(decrease) in long-term debt | 390 | 110 | (200) | 100 | - | - | - |
| Other financing cash flow items | (2) | (3) | (4) | (17) | - | - | - |
| Cash flow from financing | (632) | (419) | (711) | (496) | (490) | (1,147) | (1,917) |
| Net change in cash | (457) | 73 | 350 | (231) | 394 | 513 | 1,377 |
| FCF | 226 | 501 | 1,042 | 278 | 887 | 1,663 | 3,297 |
| Ratio | |||||||
| Capex to revenue | 16% | 3% | 1% | 11% | 17% | 4% | 3% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
VPEC focuses on III-V compound semiconductor EPI wafer for microelectronics and optoelectronics devices based on InP and GaA substrate, and expands to EPI wafer for SiPh transceivers CW laser for data center applications. We expect strong momentum in VPEC growth driven by the SiPh ramp up in 2026E, microelectronics clients' increasing demand, and its accumulated technology advantages on EPI wafer. We note that VPEC is currently trading lower than our TP implied 69x 2027E forward P/E, which is attractive, in our view.
Price Target Risks and Methodology - VPEC
Valuation: We adopt a discounted P/E method and apply a 22.2x target P/E on VPEC's 2029E EPS, discounting back to 2027E at a COE of 10.5% (beta 1.7x, risk free rate 1.6% and market risk premium at 5.1%), to derive our 12m TP of NT$793. Our target P/E is based on 0.4x PEG&M ratio derived from the average level of peers in the photonics supply chain.
Key risk: Slower-than-expected SiPh business ramp up; weaker-than-expected microelectronics demand from smartphones clients; IDM o ff ers EPI wafer in-house.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]