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71KB | 真資料圖 | 「Compal (2324.TW)」Goldman Sachs 評等與目標價沿革圖（2023/7-2026/6）：目標價標籤 32、35.4、32.2、38.8、42、43.3、40.9、43、39.6、40.5、40.1、40、41、36.94、32.6、29.8、28.1、32.1、36.6、34.7、39.5；評等於 2024/10/3 由 NA 轉 N；註明 Covered by Verena Jeng（沿革圖，公司頁不嵌） |
原始內容
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Compal (2324.TW): AI servers to fuel 4Q26E/1Q27E growth; Aug miss; Neutral
3-month revenues preview: We expect sequential revenue growth in Sep-Dec, considering the company's rising AI server shipments, AI server capacity expansion, and PC product mix upgrade towards high end model (e.g. AI PC). Overall, we expect Compal's 3Q / 4Q26E revenues to grow at 1% / 16% QoQ, riding on AI server racks ramp up and the company's expansion from motherboard (L6) to system (L10 / L11). We remain positive on Compal's business diversification, supported by global capacity expansion in the US, Taiwan, Vietnam and China, while consumer electronics still accounts for the majority of the company's total revenue, for which demand could be capped by rising raw material costs (e.g., memory, CPU). Maintain Neutral on fair valuation.
Exhibit 1: Compal monthly revenues and YoY change
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Compal's Aug revenue was up 15% YoY / down 17% MoM to NT$67bn, or 20% lower than our estimate, reflecting PC shipments decline. Aug PC shipments was down 22% MoM to 1.4m units, reflecting the impact of 1H26 demand pull-in amid the rising memory cost and weak consumer electronics demand.
Exhibit 2: Compal 3-month revenue preview
| Jul-26 | Aug-26Sep-26(E)Oct-26(E)Nov-26(E)Dec-26(E) | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 81,006 | 67,337 | 91,271 | 91,727 | 92,644 | 94,396 | 239,614 | 278,767 |
| Rev YoY | 38% | 15% | 31% | 48% | 47% | 43% | 28% | 46% |
| Rev Mom / QoQ | -15% | -17% | 36% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 16% |
| GS estimates(NT$m) | 73,467 | 84,246 | ||||||
| Act vs. GS | 10% | -20% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: Factoring in Compal's Aug revenue, we cut our 2026-28E net
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Allen Chang +852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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income by 5% / 1% / 1% to reflect the miss, mainly on lower revenues and higher opex ratios. We slightly cut our 2026-28E revenues by 1% / 1% / 1%, mainly on lower revenues from PC business, as component inflation and weak consumer demand drag down PC shipments. 2026-28E GMs are largely the same. Our 2026E opex ratio are slightly revised up to reflect Compal's increasing R&D expenses.
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision
| NT m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Chg | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Chg | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 971,895 | 957,979 | -1% | 1,124,181 | 1,109,578 | -1% | 1,220,278 | 1,205,082 | -1% |
| GP | 46,841 | 46,274 | -1% | 53,542 | 52,958 | -1% | 59,329 | 58,706 | -1% |
| OP | 13,560 | 12,797 | -6% | 17,951 | 17,739 | -1% | 21,423 | 21,179 | -1% |
| Net income | 11,239 | 10,667 | -5% | 13,683 | 13,610 | -1% | 15,785 | 15,622 | -1% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | |||
| Opex ratio | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | |||
| OPM | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | |||
| NM | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: Compal P&L summary
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 199,098 | 180,443 | 187,120 | 190,852 | 201,304 | 238,295 | 239,614 | 278,767 | 910,253 | 757,513 | 957,979 | 1,109,578 | 1,205,082 |
| Gross profit | 10,443 | 10,585 | 10,610 | 11,108 | 10,597 | 11,021 | 11,332 | 13,323 | 45,371 | 42,747 | 46,274 | 52,958 | 58,706 |
| Operating expense | (7,737) | (7,962) | (7,938) | (8,473) | (7,953) | (8,166) | (8,030) | (9,327) | (30,529) | (32,110) | (33,476) | (35,219) | (37,527) |
| Operating income | 2,706 | 2,624 | 2,672 | 2,634 | 2,644 | 2,855 | 3,302 | 3,997 | 14,842 | 10,636 | 12,797 | 17,739 | 21,179 |
| Pre tax profit | 3,427 | 1,290 | 3,217 | 2,515 | 3,091 | 4,639 | 3,352 | 4,071 | 15,348 | 10,448 | 15,153 | 18,517 | 21,255 |
| Net income | 2,191 | 482 | 1,947 | 1,409 | 1,967 | 3,133 | 2,514 | 3,053 | 10,042 | 6,030 | 10,667 | 13,610 | 15,622 |
| EPS, diluted (NT$) | 0.50 | 0.11 | 0.45 | 0.32 | 0.45 | 0.72 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 2.28 | 1.37 | 2.45 | 3.14 | 3.60 |
| Margins / ratio | |||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Opex ratio | -3.9% | -4.4% | -4.2% | -4.4% | -4.0% | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.3% | -3.4% | -4.2% | -3.5% | -3.2% | -3.1% |
| Operating margin | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Net margin | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | -13% | -9% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 18% | 1% | 16% | |||||
| Gross profit | -10% | 1% | 0% | 5% | -5% | 4% | 3% | 18% | |||||
| Operating income | -17% | -3% | 2% | -1% | 0% | 8% | 16% | 21% | |||||
| Net income | 13% | -78% | 304% | -28% | 40% | 59% | -20% | 21% | |||||
| YoY | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 0% | -24% | -23% | -17% | 1% | 32% | 28% | 46% | -4% | -17% | 26% | 16% | 9% |
| Gross profit | 7% | -10% | -13% | -4% | 1% | 4% | 7% | 20% | 7% | -6% | 8% | 14% | 11% |
| Operating income | -5% | -35% | -43% | -19% | -2% | 9% | 24% | 52% | 23% | -28% | 20% | 39% | 19% |
| Net income | 16% | -83% | -42% | -27% | -10% | 549% | 29% | 117% | 31% | -40% | 77% | 28% | 15% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to derive our 12-month TP based on near-term P/E. Our 2027E target P/E is updated to 14.7x (vs. 13.1x previously), which is derived from the refreshed peers' correlation of forward trading P/E and EPS growth. With our updated earnings estimates and target multiple, our 12-month TP is raised to NT$46.1 (vs. NT$41.3 previously). The target P/E of 14.7x is within the company's historical avg. and avg.+1std forward trading P/E. Maintain Neutral.
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Exhibit 5: Compal: Correlation of earnings growth and P/E of its peers
Exhibit 6: Compal's 12M forward P/E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Compal
We are Neutral-rated on Compal with a 12-month target price of NT$46.1. Our target price is based on 14.7x 2027E P/E, which is derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth and market re-rating for ODM companies as major factors for the stock's performance.
Key upside/downside risks: 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery; 2) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up; and 3) stronger/weaker-than-expected demand for tablets.
| 2324.TW 12m | Price Target: NT$46.10 | Price: NT$36.50 | Price: NT$36.50 | Upside: 26.3% | Upside: 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast | GS Forecast |
| Market cap: NT$158.4bn / $5.0bn Enterprise value: NT$177.2bn / $5.6bn 3m ADTV: NT$2.6bn / $81.6mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old EBITDA (NT$ mn) EPS (NT$) New EPS (NT$) Old P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend yield (%) CROCI (%) | 12/25 757,513.0 757,513.0 17,782.1 1.38 1.38 22.6 1.1 3.5 9.2 | 12/26E 957,979.1 971,894.8 19,875.7 2.47 2.60 14.8 1.2 4.1 14.8 | 12/27E 1,109,578.0 1,124,180.5 26,898.6 3.15 3.17 11.6 1.1 5.2 | 12/28E 1,205,082.3 1,220,277.8 31,850.6 3.62 3.65 10.1 1.1 6.0 13.1 |
| 14.3 | |||||
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | ||
| EPS (NT$) 0.73 | 0.58 | 0.71 | 0.80 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 24 Sep 2026 close.
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