PDF 原檔：報告_GS_亞德客1590_20260728_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-29）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_GS_亞德客1590_20260728_002.png |
46KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1 堆疊長條圖「We see AirTAC's China pneumatic market share continuing to expand in the long term」：2010-2028E 中國氣動元件市場份額，SMC／AirTAC／台韓廠商／中國大陸廠商／其他五類堆疊，AirTAC 份額自 2010 年 9% 逐年攀升至 2025 年 30%、2026E-2028E 續升至 33%-35% |
報告_GS_亞德客1590_20260728_003.png |
105KB | 真資料圖 | Price Performance 折線圖：1590.TW 股價（深藍線）vs 台灣加權指數（淺藍線），2025Q4-2026Q3；下方附 3m/6m/12m 絕對報酬與相對大盤報酬數字（12m 絕對 +57.6%、相對大盤 -11.3%） |
報告_GS_亞德客1590_20260728_004.png |
83KB | 真資料圖 | Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history 折線圖：股價（灰線）疊加歷次評等/目標價方塊標記（1200→1725 區間，最新標記 1725/1505），雙軸左股價右指數 |
報告_GS_亞德客1590_20260728_001.png |
22KB | （<40KB 未 Read，預設 logo） | — |
原始內容
Airtac International Group (1590.TW)
Upward revision on 2026 revenue and OPM guidance, with upcycle to sustain 2-3 years this time; reiterate Buy
1 590.TW
1 2m Pri c e Target:
NT$ 1 ,925.00
Pri c e:
NT$ 1 ,365.00
Upside:
4
1
.0%
What surprised us
AirTAC reported 2Q26 results today (July 28th). 2Q OP missed our estimate by 4% mainly due to higher opex (NT$1,783mn vs. GSe of NT$1,658mn) while GM is in line with our estimates (2Q26 GM at 49.7% vs. GSe of 49.5%). Total revenue was largely in line with GSe but was 11% above consensus, supported by stronger-than-expected pneumatic product shipments driven by solid demand from the electronics (20% YoY in 2Q26) and battery industry (56% YoY in 2Q26).
What surprised us the most during the results call was (1) management mentioned this upcycle could sustain 2-3 years and (2) the upward revision in 2026 revenue and OPM guidance. Management expects the current upcycle to be longer than previous cycle as customer's automation CAPEX will gradually increase in response to China government's ongoing stimulus policies, which results in a linear recovery with longer duration. Moreover, management now expects 2026 revenue in Rmb terms to reach 20%+ YoY growth (previously expected to reach mid- to high-teens YoY growth), and raised 2026 OPM guidance by 1ppt (the company now expects OPM to reach 34% vs. previous guidance of 33%).
The company reiterated its utilization rate target for the linear guide business to trend up sequentially and reach 50% by 2026 end (vs. 40%+ in 2Q26), leading to a 30%+ GM in 2H26 (~20% GM in 2Q26) with improving utilization rate. Going into 2027, if UTR continues to trend upward (GM will reach 40%+ if UTR is at 80%), the linear guide business' OPM could reach corporate average as limited opex is required given the company's ability to cross-sell linear guide and pneumatic products.
Going into 3Q26, we expect revenue to reach NT$11,888mn (-2% QoQ,+44% YoY), with the pneumatic industry entering low season. We continue to see pressure from rising raw material cost, while the
BUY
Chao Wang
+886(2)2730-4195 | kuan-chao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Yuichiro Isayama
+81(3)4587-9806 | yuichiro.isayama@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.
Al Wang
+886(2)2730-4081 | al.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Key Data _____________________________________
Market cap: NT$261.0bn / $8.1bn
Enterprise value: NT$250.7bn / $7.8bn
3m ADTV: NT$1.3bn / $41.6mn
Taiwan
Taiwan Electronic Components
M&A Rank: 3
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue(NT$mn) New | 34,329.9 | 45,643.9 | 53,446.1 | 60,126.1 |
| Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 34,329.9 | 46,122.9 | 53,397.5 | 58,470.0 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 12,865.9 | 17,645.7 | 21,223.6 | 24,179.9 |
| EPS(NT$) New | 42.00 | 61.95 | 74.00 | 85.29 |
| EPS (NT$) Old | 42.00 | 64.07 | 72.89 | 80.46 |
| P/E (X) | 20.9 | 22.0 | 18.4 | 16.0 |
| P/B (X) | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.0 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| CROCI (%) | 19.2 | 24.0 | 27.8 | 30.2 |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |
| EPS (NT$) | 16.55 | 16.64 | 15.40 | 16.11 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
BUY
Airtac International Group (1590.TW) Rating since Oct 13, 2019
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P /E (X) | 20.9 | 22.0 | 18.4 | 1 6 .0 |
| P/B (X) | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.0 |
| FCF yield (%) | 2.8 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| EV/EBITDAR (X) | 13.3 | 14.9 | 12.2 | 10.5 |
| EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) | 13.3 | 14.9 | 12.2 | 10.5 |
| CROCI (%) | 19.2 | 24.0 | 27.8 | 30.2 |
| ROE (%) | 1 6 .7 | 22. 6 | 24.9 | 2 6 .2 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (7.2) | (18.1) | (22.2) | (27.2) |
| Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) | (7.2) | (18.1) | (22.2) | (27.2) |
| Inte r est c ov e r (X) | 19 6 .7 | 3 , 954.3 | 4 , 830.9 | 5 , 574.0 |
| Days in v ent or y o utst , sales | 6 9. 6 | 59.8 | 6 3.7 | 6 4.0 |
| Recei v able days | 128.2 | 110.1 | 97.3 | 99.2 |
| Days p ayable o utstandin g | 24.0 | 30.2 | 37.4 | 38.0 |
| DuP o nt ROE (%) | 1 6 .0 | 21.8 | 23.8 | 25.1 |
| Tu r n ov e r (X) | 0. 6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| L e v e r a g e (X) | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Gro ss cas h in v ested (ex cas h ) (NT $ ) | 6 1 , 249. 6 | 6 0 , 012.9 | 6 2 , 871.0 | 6 5 , 350. 6 |
| A v e r a g e ca p ital e mp l o yed (NT $ ) | 47 , 805. 6 | 47 , 711.1 | 47 , 444.5 | 48 , 922.7 |
| BVP S (NT $ ) | 2 6 2.91 | 284.59 | 310.49 | 340.34 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | 12 .0 | 33 .0 | 17 . 1 | 12 . 5 |
| EBITDA growth | 11 .0 | 37 . 2 | 2 0. 3 | 13 . 9 |
| EPS growth | 1 0. 2 | 47 . 5 | 19 . 5 | 15 . 3 |
| DPS growth | 35 . 2 | 4 0. 8 | 19 . 5 | 15 . 3 |
| EBIT m argin | 3 0.0 | 33 . 7 | 35 . 2 | 36 . 1 |
| EBITDA m argin | 37 . 5 | 38 . 7 | 39 . 7 | 4 0. 2 |
| Net inco m e m argin | 24 . 5 | 27 . 1 | 27 . 7 | 28 . 4 |
Source: FactSet. Price as of 28 Jul 2026 close.
Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| To t a l r e v e nu e | 34,329 . 9 | 45,643 . 9 | 53,446 . 1 | 60,126 . 1 |
| Cost of goods sold | (18,547 . 9) | (23,428 . 4) | (27,003 . 5) | (29,981 . 7) |
| SG&A | (4,383 . 8) | (5,472 . 8) | (5,986 . 1) | (6,543 . 6) |
| R&D | (1,110 . 5) | (1,342 . 4) | (1,642 . 2) | (1,892 . 7) |
| Other operating inc . /(exp . ) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| E BITDA | 12 , 865 .9 | 17 , 6 4 5 . 7 | 21 , 22 3. 6 | 2 4, 17 9.9 |
| Depreciation& amortization | (2,578 . 2) | (2,245 . 3) | (2,409 . 3) | (2,471 . 8) |
| E BIT | 1 0, 287 . 7 | 15 ,400.3 | 18 , 81 4.3 | 21 , 7 0 8 . 1 |
| Net interest inc . /(exp . ) | 68 . 1 | 67 . 3 | 184 . 8 | 247 . 1 |
| Income/(loss) from associates | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax pro fi t | 1 0, 6 4 5 .4 | 15 , 772 . 8 | 18 ,9 7 4.3 | 21 , 868 . 1 |
| Provision for taxes | (2,245 . 5) | (3,383 . 6) | (4,174 . 3) | (4,811 . 0) |
| Minority interest | 0 . 3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Preferred dividends | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| N et inc . ( pre-ex c ept i o n a ls) | 8 ,400. 1 | 12 ,3 8 9. 2 | 1 4, 7 99.9 | 17 ,0 57 . 1 |
| Post-tax exceptionals | -- | -- | 0 . 0 | 0 . 0 |
| N et inc . ( po s t-ex c ept i o n a ls) | 8 ,400. 1 | 12 ,3 8 9. 2 | 1 4, 7 99.9 | 17 ,0 57 . 1 |
| E P S(b a sic , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 4 2 .00 | 61 .9 5 | 7 4.00 | 85 . 2 9 |
| E P S(dilu te d , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 4 2 .00 | 61 .9 5 | 7 4.00 | 85 . 2 9 |
| E P S(b a sic , po s t-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 4 2 .00 | 61 .9 5 | 7 4.00 | 85 . 2 9 |
| E P S(dilu te d , po s t-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 4 2 .00 | 61 .9 5 | 7 4.00 | 85 . 2 9 |
| DPS (NT$) | 28 . 59 | 40 . 27 | 48 . 10 | 55 . 44 |
| Div . payout ratio (%) | 68 . 1 | 65 . 0 | 65 . 0 | 65 . 0 |
| Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) | ______ 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
| C a sh& c a sh equiv a lents | 3,977.2 | 10,545.5 | 14,026.7 | 18,738.9 |
| Accounts receiv a ble | 14,394.7 | 13,130.4 | 15,374.9 | 17,296.5 |
| Inventory | 6,292.0 | 8,665.3 | 9,987.6 | 11,089.1 |
| Other current a ssets | 383.4 | 383.4 | 383.4 | 383.4 |
| Total current assets | 25 ,0 47 .3 | 3 2 , 724 . 6 | 39, 772 . 7 | 47 , 5 0 8 .0 |
| Net PP&E | 28,753.2 | 29,007.8 | 29,098.5 | 29,126.7 |
| Net int a ngibles | 29.1 | 29.1 | 29.1 | 29.1 |
| Tot a l investments | 1,043.5 | 1,043.5 | 1,043.5 | 1,043.5 |
| Other long-term a ssets | 2,667.2 | 2,667.2 | 2,667.2 | 2,667.2 |
| Total assets | 57 , 54 0. 2 | 65 , 472 . 2 | 72 , 611 .0 | 8 0,3 74 . 5 |
| Accounts p a y a ble | 1,306.7 | 2,567.5 | 2,959.3 | 3,285.7 |
| Short-term debt | 217.0 | 217.0 | 217.0 | 217.0 |
| Short-term le a se li a bilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Other current li a bilities | 3,106.4 | 5,441.4 | 7,008.3 | 8,475.5 |
| Total current liabilities | 4 , 6 30. 1 | 8 , 225 .9 | 1 0, 184 . 6 | 11 ,9 78 . 2 |
| Long-term debt | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- |
| Long-term le a se li a bilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Other long-term li a bilities | 322.8 | 322.8 | 322.8 | 322.8 |
| Total long-term liabilities | 3 22 . 8 | 3 22 . 8 | 3 22 . 8 | 3 22 . 8 |
| Total liabilities | 4 ,9 52 . 8 | 8 , 548 . 6 | 1 0, 5 0 7 . 4 | 12 ,300.9 |
| Preferred sh a res | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Tot a l commonequity | 52,581.2 | 56,917.4 | 62,097.4 | 68,067.4 |
| Minority interest Total liabilities &equity | 6 . 2 57 , 54 0. 2 | 6 . 2 65 , 472 . 2 | 6 . 2 72 , 611 .0 | 6 . 2 8 0,3 74 . 5 |
| Net debt, a djusted | (3,760.2) | (13,809.7) | (18,521.9) | |
| (10,328.5) |
| Cash Flow (NT$ mn) | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 8,400.1 | 12,389.2 | 14,799.9 | 17,057.1 |
| D&Aadd-back | 2,578.2 | 2,245.3 | 2,409.3 | 2,471.8 |
| Minority interest add-back | (0.3) | -- | -- | -- |
| Net (inc)/dec working capital | (3,818.9) | 151.7 | (3,175.0) | (2,696.8) |
| Other operating cash flow | 507.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Cash flow fro m operations | 7 , 666.6 | 1 4, 786. 3 | 1 4,034 . 3 | 16 , 8 3 2.2 |
| Capital expenditures | (2,814.5) | (2,500.0) | (2,500.0) | (2,500.0) |
| Acquisitions | 1,736.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| Divestitures | 117.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Others | (8.4) | -- | -- | -- |
| Cash flow fro m investing | (9 6 9 .1 ) | ( 2 , 5 00 . 0) | ( 2 , 5 00 . 0) | ( 2 , 5 00 . 0) |
| Repayment of lease liabilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dividends paid(common& pref) | (4,001.9) | (5,718.0) | (8,053.0) | (9,620.0) |
| Inc/(dec) in debt | (5,340.8) | -- | -- | -- |
| Other financing cash flows | (103.8) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow fro m financing | (9,44 6.5 ) | ( 5 , 718. 0) | ( 8 ,0 5 3 . 0) | (9, 62 0 . 0) |
| Total cash flow | ( 2 , 7 49 . 0) | 6 , 568. 3 | 3,4 81. 3 | 4, 712.2 |
| Free cash flow | 4,852.1 | 12,286.3 | 11,534.3 | 14,332.2 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
conmans to expana in the long term
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
9%
9%
10% 12% 13% 14%
14% 17% 18% 19% 20%
company has maintained a stable pricing strategy within the China market (account 90%+ of total revenue), thus we expect GM to slightly decline to 48.7% (-1.0ppt QoQ and +2.7ppt YoY). We continue to see the company's e ff ort in improving internal e ffi ciency, which could partially o ff set the risk from rising material cost.
We maintain our conservative though optimistic view on the pneumatic industry outlook. As we continue to see downside risk on weak consumer electronics shipments (smartphone etc.) and expect raw material cost pressure to persist over the coming quarters. We expect the company to continue to gain share in the China pneumatic market as it shifts towards higher-quality pneumatic products (see here) along with the company's stable pricing strategy.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investment view
We reiterate our Buy rating on AirTAC and remain positive on the company's comment on (1) the upcycle this time could sustain longer at 2-3 years and (2) upward revision to its 2026 revenue and OPM guidance, as management continues to expect the company to outperform the pneumatic industry. Within its largest segment, electronics (account for 27% of 2Q26 revenue), the company now expects 20% YoY growth in 2026 (was 10% YoY previously), supported by a better smartphone demand (account for 25-30% of electronics revenue) in 2H26. However, we remain cautious on the segment given ongoing weakness in consumer electronics demand (smartphone etc.).
We believe AirTAC's strong B/S and healthy cash fl ow position will enable the company to overcome potential industry demand risks, while further supporting market share gains during industry downturns (AirTAC's share gains have accelerated during industry downcycles historically, supported by its solid B/S and cash fl ow management). We expect the company's ROE to continue to rise in the coming years (ROE should improve to 26.2% in 2028E per GSe vs. 16%-17% in 2022-25) supporting a high dividend payout ratio (50%-60%+ per year per GSe).
As a result, we maintain our Buy rating on AirTAC with new 12m TP of NT$1,925 (from NT$1,725).
Earnings and TP revisions
We revise down our 2026E revenue by 1% after factor in 2Q26 results and revise up our e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
cambllo. camlos revistull lavie
AirTAC P&L ( NT$ mn)
AirTAC (1590. TW)
Sales
Gross Profit
EBIT
Revenue
Gross profits
Operating profits
Net Income
EPS (NT$)
Ratio analysis
Pre-tax income
Net earnings
Gross margin
EBIT margin
EPS, NT$
Net margin
EBIT margin (%)
Gross margin (%)
Net margin (%)
2Q26
2026E Old
46,123
12,278
Diff.
-1%
-1%
Diff (%)
•••••••
-1%
Q0Q
2027E New
53,446
1Q26
26,443
10,014
2027E Old
53,397
QoQ
26,108
21%
YoY
2Q25
8,953
Bloomberg consensus
2028E New
YoY
36%
2028E Old
10,999
11%
22,458
-3%
2028E revenue estimates by 3% to factor in the better-than-expected growth in the China pneumatic market. We revise down our 2026E OPM by 0.7ppt to factor in higher raw material cost but revise up our 2027/28E OPM by 0.5/1.1ppt as we continue to expect the company to make progress in enhancing internal e ffi ciency. As a result, we revise down our 2026E EPS estimates by 3% but revise up our 2027/28E EPS estimates by 2/6%. 33.2% 1.9ppt 30.5% 4.5ppt 33.6% 1.4ppt
Maintain our Buy rating on AirTAC, with a new 12m TP of NT$1,925 (from NT$1,725), based on a higher target P/E of 26x (was 24.2x). We believe the company could trade at 0.25x STDV above the average PE multiple during previous pneumatic upcycle and rollover our valuation base from 3Q26-2Q27E to 2027E.
2026E New
45,644
22,216
15,400
12,164
6,048
4,265
12,389
61.95
4,238
48.7%
3,31'
33.7%
27.1%
16.55
35.1%
49.7%
27.2%
Exhibit 2: AirTAC's 2Q26 comp table
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 3: Earnings revision table
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
GS est.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
NTSmn
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating income
Pretax income
Taxes expense
Net income
3Q25
8,246
3,797
(1,336)
2,460
2,652
2Q25
(1,387)
2,732
2,570
1Q25
(1,302)
2,272
2,466
(530)
(533)
EPS, NTS
(553)
Exhibit 4: P&L table
Ratio analysis and assumption
As % of sales
Gross margin
Operating expense ratio
Operating margin
Net margin
Revenue
QoQ growth (%)
Gross profit
Operating income
Net income
YoY growth (%)
Revenue
Gross profit
OPEXI
Operating income
Net income
4Q26E
11,578
5,577
(1,829)
3,748
3.898
(819)
3,080
15.40
4Q25
9,035
4,292
(1,469)
2,823
2,957
(629)
2,328
11.64
3Q26E
11,888
5,786
(1,724)
4,063
4,213
(885)
3,328
16.64
1Q26
10,014
4,804
(1.479)
3,325
3,424
(753)
2,671
13.35
10.50
2Q26
12,164
6,048
(1,783)
4,265
4.238
(927)
3.311
16.55
1Q27E
12,135
5,874
(1,784)
4,090
4.130
(909)
3.222
16.11
2Q27E
14,174
7,195
(1,914)
5,282
5,322
(1,171)
4.151
20.75
2025
34,330
10,288
10.645
(2.246)
8.400
42.00
2026E
45,644
15,400
15,773
(3.384)
12.389
61.95
2027E
53.446
18,814
18.974
(4,174)
14.800
74.00
2028E
60,126
21,708
21,868
(4,811)
17.057
85.29
| 44.1% 16.1% | 46.0% 15.5% 46.0% | 47.5% 16.3% 48.0% | 49.7% | 48.7% | 48.2% 15.8% 48.4% | 50.8% | 49.9% | 48.6% | 46.7% | 46.0% 16.0% 48.7% | 49.5% | 50.1% | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.1% | 16.2% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 15.4% | 17.3% | 14.9% | 14.3% | 14.0% | |||||
| 30.5% 22.8% 29.8% | 31.2% | 33.2% | 35.1% | 34.2% | 32.4% | 33.7% 26.6% | 37.3% 29.3% | 36.3% | 33.2% | 29.4% 24.9% | 30.0% 24.5% 33.7% | 35.2% 27.7% | 36.1% 28.4% | ||||
| 23.9% | 25.5% | 25.8% | 26.7% | 27.2% | 28.0% | 26.6% | 28.5% | 26.2% | 27.1% | ||||||||
| 6% | 11% | -8% | 10% | 11% | 21% | -2% | -3% | 5% 17% | -3% | -3% | |||||||
| 2% | 15% | -8% | 13% | 12% | 26% | -4% | -4% | 5% 22% | -4% | -6% | |||||||
| 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% | 6% 20% -10% 15% 18% 28% -5% -8% 9% 29% -5% -11% |
| 7% | 5% | 3% | 11% | 15% | 24% | 1% | -7% | 5% | 29% | -5% | -11% | ||||||
| 12% | 6% | 12% | 18% | 24% | 36% | 44% | 28% | 21% | 17% | 16% | 15% | 3% | 12% | 33% | 17% | 12% | |
| 5% 6% | 3% | 11% | 22% | 34% | 47% | 52% | 30% | 22% | 19% | 19% | 16% | 4% | 10% | 41% | 19% | 14% | |
| 3% | -1% | 7% | 14% | 29% | 29% | 25% 21% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 24% 12% | 11% | ||||
| 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% | 5% 6% 3% -10% 19% 21% 32% 29% 46% 56% 65% 33% 23% 24% 23% 18% 18% 2% 14% 50% 22% 15% |
| 38% | 63% | 59% | 32% | 21% | 25% | 13% | 9% | 10% 47% | 19% | 15% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
For the exclusive use of KEVINLU@LENOVO.COM
4Q27E
13,355
6,497
(2,057)
4,440
4.480
(986)
3,494
17.47
2024
30,660
9,016
9,634
(2,010)
7,624
38.12
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
Investment Thesis - AirTAC
AirTAC is the 2nd-largest pneumatic supplier in mainland China with 28% market share in 2025, outpacing most local competitors, owing to its low-cost yet high quality product, and service quality reputation in most key cities in mainland China. We forecast its market share will reach 30% in 2026E and expect AirTAC to be the structural winner in a de fl ationary market, due to its: (1) strong market growth and leadership: AirTAC continues to expand its market share in mainland China driven by competitive pricing that is more than 10% lower vs. international peers (with 45%+ GM / 30-35% OPM) and high demand elasticity among mainland China customers; and (2) superior cost structure and fi nancial health: with best-in-class cash cost and a solid balance sheet, featuring positive net cash over FCF since 2023/2024, we believe AirTAC is well-equipped to weather industry downturns and capitalize on market restructuring.
Overall, we believe AirTAC will see better revenue/pro fi tability in the long term given its share gainer position in the China pneumatic market and potential to gain share in the linear guide market (improved demand in the next 1-2 years). This should lead to strengthened valuation, vs. its recent trading range (trading below its 10-year avg. P/E multiple). We are Buy rated on AirTAC.
Price target risks and methodology - AirTAC
Valuation methodology: Our 12m TP of NT$1,925 is based on a target P/E of 26.0x on our 2027E EPS (0.25x STDV above avg of the last pneumatic upcycle).
Key downside risks: (1) Stronger competition from peers; (2) sharper-than-expected Rmb depreciation, and (3) a longer-than-expected end-market demand downtrend in mainland China.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8