PDF 原檔：報告_GF_聯電2303_20261004_original.pdf
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44KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 1：聯電營收 YoY（淺紫線）與營業利益 YoY（深藍線），1Q21 至 4Q27E；營業利益 YoY 於 2023 谷底約 -49%，2026-27E 重回高成長（財務類，公司頁不嵌） |
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原始內容
Meaningful Re-Rating Path into 2H26-2028
Raise TP to NT$215: UMC's share price underperformed Taiex in July/Aug but rebounded on rising expectations of price hikes and optical opportunities (our report: PIC/TFLN Upside Unlocks a Higher-Margin Cycle on Aug 24). We continue to expect UMC to be re-rated, supported by profitability optimization through 2H26-2027 (higher UTR, price hikes, improving mix, etc), followed by a shift to a new growth phase from 2028 driven by FinFET 12nm and an 'optical full-solution model'. Reflecting stronger pricing and margins, we lift 2026E/2027E EPS by +2%/+8% and raise our target multiple to 25x 2027E EPS on a stronger margin/growth outlook, resulting in a new TP of NT$215. Our model indicates UMC should maintain solid FCF and dividend yields.
Earnings optimization in 2H26-2027 amid transfer-order gains: We see UMC is in a phase of profitability optimization supported by rising UTR, pricing, and improving mix. We expect UTR for: 1) 12' to reach ~93% by end-2026 on strong DDIC volumes from Novatek and Samsung LSI at 22/28nm and Apple's Mac at 55/65nm, with upside from Sony's sensors (>10KPM at 22/28nm); 2) 8' to ~90% by end-2026 and full loading by 2H27 on intact demand (datacenter PMIC, MCU, embedded memory, etc), Samsung LSI's scale-down in 8' driving PMIC order transfer (~70KPM in 2027, ~110KPM in 2028), and additional transfer from Novatek (HV) and MTK (BCD), with upside from Qualcomm PMIC in 2027. Meanwhile, pricing momentum extends from 2H26 (selective customers) into 1H27 (10-30% across 12' and 8') and 2H27 (ongoing negotiations), suggesting visibility extending into 2H27.
Transformation from 2028 to 'asset-light FinFET' and 'optical full solution': We expect UMC's next growth phase, likely beginning 2028, to be driven by: 1) Intel 12nm as a major inflection-an asset-light FinFET model with revenue contribution from 2028, plus upside from further 12nm expansion tied to Apple's DDIC migration amid 'Made in U.S.'; 2) SiPh/TFLN scaling toward 2.4T/3.2T, with TFLN as the largest long-term opportunity. We estimate EPS contribution of NT$0.7/NT$1.6 in 2027E/2028E, supported by higher ASPs of ~$4.5k and wafer volumes of 20KPM/40KPM by end-2027/2028; 3) interposer and advanced packaging beginning to contribute from 2H27 (interposer), supported by emerging vectors such as silicon capacitor/DTC, hybrid bonding, and controller-to-bonding integration, positioning UMC to evolve beyond PIC foundry toward a broader optical integration model.
Risks: 1) Geo-political risk; 2) Demand uncertainties; 3) Competition; 4) New product delay.
Profit forecast
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 232,303 | 237,553 | 287,185 | 367,320 | 457,280 |
| Revenue YoY (%) | 4.4 | 2.3 | 20.9 | 27.9 | 24.5 |
| Net profit (m) | 47,211 | 41,716 | 94,576 | 107,405 | 147,608 |
| Net profit YoY (%) | -22.6 | -11.6 | 126.7 | 13.6 | 37.4 |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.8 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 11.8 |
| P/E | 42.5 | 48.3 | 21.3 | 18.8 | 13.7 |
| ROE (%) | 12.5 | 11.0 | 21.7 | 22.9 | 24.5 |
Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.
Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.
数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心
Maintained Buy
Target price NT$215
Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk
Henry Huang
SFC CE No. BYA749 henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk
Earnings Forecast
Figure 1: UMC's revenue YoY and operating profit YoY (%)
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Earnings Revision
Incorporating higher pricing and margins, we raise 2026E/2027E EPS estimates by +2%/+8%. Our earnings model doesn't factor in the potential Intel 12nm/14nm collaboration as we wait for details of revenue sharing model.
Figure 2: Earnings revision
| NTD m | 2025 | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | Change (%) - 2026E | Change (%) - 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 237,553 | 290,217 | 287,185 | 353,625 | 367,320 | -1% | 4% |
| Gross profit | 68,906 | 98,533 | 97,464 | 141,264 | 150,109 | -1% | 6% |
| EBIT | 43,949 | 69,014 | 67,845 | 108,706 | 116,390 | -2% | 7% |
| Pre-tax Income | 49,648 | 101,828 | 104,020 | 116,265 | 125,722 | 2% | 8% |
| Net profit | 41,716 | 92,701 | 94,576 | 99,138 | 107,405 | 2% | 8% |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.34 | 7.43 | 7.58 | 7.94 | 8.60 | 2% | 8% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin | 29.0% | 34.0% | 33.9% | 39.9% | 40.9% | ||
| Operating margin | 18.5% | 23.8% | 23.6% | 30.7% | 31.7% | ||
| Pre-tax margin | 20.9% | 35.1% | 36.2% | 32.9% | 34.2% | ||
| Net profit margin | 17.6% | 31.9% | 32.9% | 28.0% | 29.2% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 3: UMC's P&L forecast
| (NTD m) | 2025 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2026E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 237,553 | 61,038 | 68,733 | 76,829 | 80,585 | 287,185 | 82,449 | 88,945 | 95,241 | 100,685 | 367,320 |
| COGS | 168,647 | 43,219 | 46,410 | 49,231 | 50,860 | 189,721 | 50,571 | 53,173 | 55,472 | 57,996 | 217,211 |
| Gross profit | 68,907 | 17,818 | 22,323 | 27,598 | 29,725 | 97,464 | 31,878 | 35,772 | 39,770 | 42,690 | 150,109 |
| Opex | 24,959 | 6,542 | 7,373 | 7,737 | 7,967 | 29,619 | 7,917 | 8,217 | 8,637 | 8,947 | 33,719 |
| Operating profit | 43,948 | 11,276 | 14,950 | 19,861 | 21,757 | 67,845 | 23,961 | 27,554 | 31,132 | 33,742 | 116,390 |
| Non-op profit | 5,699 | 5,367 | 30,236 | 1,682 | 2,254 | 36,176 | 2,333 | 2,333 | 2,333 | 2,333 | 9,332 |
| Pre-tax profit | 49,647 | 16,643 | 45,186 | 18,179 | 24,012 | 104,020 | 26,294 | 29,887 | 33,465 | 36,075 | 125,722 |
| Income tax | 8,113 | 527 | 2,962 | 2,636 | 3,482 | 9,607 | 3,944 | 4,782 | 4,685 | 5,051 | 18,462 |
| Minority interest | 182 | 54 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 163 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 145 |
| Net Income | 41,717 | 16,171 | 42,260 | 15,579 | 20,566 | 94,576 | 22,386 | 25,141 | 28,816 | 31,061 | 107,405 |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.34 | 1.29 | 3.39 | 1.25 | 1.65 | 7.58 | 1.79 | 2.02 | 2.31 | 2.49 | 8.61 |
| Outstanding shares | 12,485 | 12,491 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 |
| Margin analysis | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 29.0% | 29.2% | 32.5% | 35.9% | 36.9% | 33.9% | 38.7% | 40.2% | 41.8% | 42.4% | 40.9% |
| Operating margin | 18.5% | 18.5% | 21.8% | 25.9% | 27.0% | 23.6% | 29.1% | 31.0% | 32.7% | 33.5% | 31.7% |
| Pre-tax margin | 20.9% | 27.3% | 65.7% | 23.7% | 29.8% | 36.2% | 31.9% | 33.6% | 35.1% | 35.8% | 34.2% |
| Effective tax rate | 16.3% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.7% |
| Growth (YoY%) | |||||||||||
| Sales | 2% | 5% | 17% | 30% | 30% | 21% | 35% | 29% | 24% | 25% | 28% |
| Operating profit | -15% | 15% | 38% | 79% | 78% | 54% | 112% | 84% | 57% | 55% | 72% |
| Net income | -12% | 108% | 375% | 4% | 105% | 127% | 38% | -41% | 85% | 51% | 14% |
| EPS | -12% | 108% | 375% | 4% | 105% | 127% | 39% | -41% | 85% | 51% | 14% |
| Product mix (%) | |||||||||||
| Wafer | 98% | 95% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 96% | 97% |
| Others | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Valuation and Recommendation
Buy with TP of NT$215
We rate UMC (2303 TT, UMC US) Buy and set our TP at NT$215, which is based on 25x our 2027E EPS estimate from previous 20x due to enhanced margin and growth outlook. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market will be mainly focused on the company's earnings outlook, and its earnings volatility has reduced since 2021 due to a much more diversified application mix and specialty position. We adopt the 2027 P/E valuation is due to the improving pricing environment in the longer term. Overall, we believe the mature node industry outlook has become more favorable, and UMC's mgmt. also guided a favorable pricing environment in 2026/2027.
UMC P/E traded at an average of 15x since 2021, when the market accepted the P/E valuation. Our target price is higher than the mid-cycle level, as we believe the rerating catalysts are emerging amid favorable industry supply/demand. Meanwhile, the company continued to gain AI related business (i.e., networking, power, silicon photonics, advanced packaging). We expect its ROE to reach mid-20s in 2026E-2028E, vs. 11-12% in 2024-2025.
Figure 4: UMC's 12-month forward P/E
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Risks
1) Geo-political risk; 2) Demand uncertainties; 3) Competition; 4) New product delay.
| Balance Sheet | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | NTD mn |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| Current assets | 189,678 | 204,783 | 245,002 | 266,055 | 370,034 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 115,239 | 128,365 | 155,744 | 157,509 | 237,793 |
| Inventory | 35,782 | 37,228 | 41,880 | 47,949 | 56,802 |
| Accounts Receivable | 33,343 | 31,274 | 37,808 | 48,358 | 60,202 |
| Other current assets | 5,313 | 7,915 | 9,569 | 12,239 | 15,237 |
| Non-current assets | 380,523 | 374,213 | 379,614 | 409,232 | 431,063 |
| Long-term equity investment | 72,487 | 75,373 | 80,373 | 85,373 | 90,373 |
| Fixed assets | 279,059 | 271,395 | 271,797 | 296,414 | 313,246 |
| Other long-term assets | 28,976 | 27,445 | 27,445 | 27,445 | 27,445 |
| Total assets | 570,201 | 578,996 | 624,616 | 675,287 | 801,097 |
| Current liabilities | 75,260 | 87,598 | 91,085 | 109,148 | 119,335 |
| Accounts Payable | 7,633 | 9,170 | 10,316 | 11,810 | 13,991 |
| Short-term borrowings | 19,510 | 27,597 | 19,318 | 18,738 | 7,495 |
| Other current liabilities | 48,117 | 50,831 | 61,452 | 78,599 | 97,849 |
| Non-current liabilities | 116,755 | 111,542 | 97,931 | 96,978 | 78,493 |
| Long-term Debt | 55,533 | 45,372 | 31,760 | 30,808 | 12,323 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 61,222 | 66,170 | 66,170 | 66,170 | 66,170 |
| Total liabilities | 192,016 | 199,141 | 189,016 | 206,126 | 197,828 |
| Total Equity | 378,185 | 379,855 | 435,600 | 469,161 | 603,269 |
| Share Capital | 125,607 | 125,882 | 125,882 | 125,882 | 125,882 |
| Additional Paid-in Capital | 25,473 | 21,004 | 15,004 | 6,004 | -7,496 |
| Retained earnings | 226,849 | 232,883 | 294,628 | 337,189 | 484,796 |
| Preferred Stocks | 257 | 87 | 87 | 87 | 87 |
| Total Liabilities & Equity | 570,201 | 578,996 | 624,616 | 675,287 | 801,097 |
| Cash Flow Statement | NTD mn | ||||
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| Operating cash flow | 79,970 | 103,286 | 156,701 | 177,540 | 223,912 |
| Profit for the year | 47,211 | 41,716 | 94,576 | 107,405 | 147,608 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 48,168 | 59,259 | 63,199 | 70,783 | 78,569 |
| Change in working capital | -16,251 | 2,272 | -1,074 | -647 | -2,264 |
| Others | 843 | 39 | - | - | - |
| Investing cash flow | -87,144 | -52,988 | -63,600 | -95,400 | -95,400 |
| Capex | -85,408 | -48,764 | -63,600 | -95,400 | -95,400 |
| Change in investment | 924 | -2,924 | - | - | - |
| Others | -2,660 | -1,300 | - | - | - |
| Free cash flow | -5,438 | 54,523 | 93,101 | 82,140 | 128,512 |
| Financing cash flow | 6,135 | 2,874 | -21,891 | -1,532 | -29,728 |
| Change in Capital | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net Change in Debt | 271 | -2,075 | -21,891 | -1,532 | -29,728 |
| Others | 5,864 | 4,948 | - | - | - |
| Exchange influence | 3,715 | -1,846 | - | - | - |
| Net increase in cash | -1,038 | 53,172 | 71,210 | 80,608 | 98,785 |
NTD mn Cash Flow Statement
189,678 204,783 245,002 266,055 370,034 Operating cash flow
9,569 12,239 15,237 Others
28,976 27,445 27,445 27,445 27,445 Others
48,117 50,831 61,452 78,599 97,849 Others
570,201 578,996 624,616 675,287 801,097 Key Financial Ratios
9,607 18,462 25,393 Gross debt/equity
47,211 41,717 94,576 107,405 147,608 Quick Ratio
| Income Statement | NTD mn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2024 232,303 | 2025 237,553 | 2026E 287,185 | 2027E 367,320 | 2028E 457,280 |
| Cost of sales | 156,649 | 168,647 | 189,721 | 217,211 | 257,318 |
| Gross profit | 75,654 | 68,906 | 97,464 | 150,109 | 199,962 |
| Operating Expense | 24,042 | 24,958 | 29,619 | 33,719 | 37,659 |
| Operating profit | 51,613 | 43,949 | 67,845 | 116,390 | 162,303 |
| Interest Income | 3,670 | 2,279 | 1,272 | 2,132 | 3,353 |
| Interest Expense | 1,679 | 1,602 | 28,403 | 7,200 | 7,200 |
| Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) | 2,616 | 5,022 | 6,500 | - | - |
| Pre-tax profit | 56,220 | 49,647 | 104,020 | 125,722 | 172,856 |
| Income tax | 9,113 | 8,113 | 9,607 | 18,462 | 25,393 |
| Profit for the year | 47,002 | 41,354 | 94,413 | 107,260 | 147,463 |
| Minority interest | 105 | 182 | 163 | 145 | 145 |
| Net profit to ord. equity | 47,211 | 41,717 | 94,576 | 107,405 | 147,608 |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.8 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 11.8 |
| Key Financial Ratios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth (%) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Revenue growth | 4.4 | 2.3 | 20.9 | 27.9 | 24.5 |
| Operating profit growth | -10.8 | -14.8 | 54.4 | 71.6 | 39.4 |
| Net profit growth | -7.8 | 5.2 | 149.4 | 32.9 | 60.9 |
| Profitability (%) | |||||
| Gross profit margin | 32.6 | 29.0 | 33.9 | 40.9 | 43.7 |
| Operating Profit Margin | 22.2 | 18.5 | 23.6 | 31.7 | 35.5 |
| Net profit margin | 20.3 | 17.6 | 32.9 | 29.2 | 32.3 |
| Key Ratio (%) | |||||
| ROA | 8.3 | 7.2 | 15.1 | 15.9 | 18.4 |
| ROE | 12.5 | 11.0 | 21.7 | 22.9 | 24.5 |
| Stability | |||||
| Gross debt/equity | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Interest Coverage | 48 | 64 | 110 | 153 | 281 |
| Current Ratio | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Net debt/equity | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash |
Rating definitions Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Company ratings Buy
Hold Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Underperform Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
Sector ratings Positive
Neutral Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
Hong Kong Company
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Telephone
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Email evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk
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