PDF 原檔：報告_GFHK_記憶體DRAM_20260906_original.pdf
原始內容
Memory: Our Tech Tour Suggests Intact DRAM
Jeff Pu, CFA
SFC CE No. BNO719
jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk
Henry Huang
SFC CE No. BYA749
henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk
What's New?
Following our bearish sector notes (i.e., Supply Chain Managing Memory Cost on July 3 , AI Platform Value Shift on Aug 6 ), memory stocks underperformed. However, our recent supply tour, along with SEMICON 2026, suggests enhanced DRAM outlook, better than feared HBM de-spec but soft NAND. Despite our discontinued memory company coverage ( Aug Edition on Aug 12 ), we turn positive on DRAM sector. We also expect NVHBM to shift the design value of base die to Nvidia (NVDA Buy) and MTK (2454 TT Buy).
Comments
DRAM pricing & inventory tracking solid: According to news report about TrendForce on Sept 1, it lifted its pricing expectation for 3Q26 PC DRAM (from +15-20% QoQ to +18-23% QoQ) and maintained server and mobile. Our supply chain research indicates U.S. hyperscaler inventories are low and is likely to be reduced further by end -3Q26 on improving CPU availability. We therefore expect blended DRAM pricing at ~10% QoQ in 4Q26, versus high -teens QoQ in 3Q26.
NAND pricing & inventory tracking soft: We maintain our high -teen QoQ NAND price expectation for 3Q26 but expect softening in 4Q26 to low single -digit QoQ, pressured by weaker mobile demand and elevated mobile/PC inventories. Hyperscaler NAND inventory remains healthy at ~14 weeks (vs. ~15 -week normal), but the softer pricing outlook could slow pull -ins.
HBM firm, with modest de-spec: Despite debate over moderating price growth vs. AI-driven structural demand, our 2027 HBM view remains constructive given tight supply, aided by Chinese GPU demand, and widening DRAM-HBM price gaps. Pricing of HBM4 is unlikely to finalize until early-4Q26, with three suppliers are asking $2.9-4.5/Gb, and we expect it to be finalized at $3.5-4.0/Gb, vs. $1.8-1.9/Gb for Nvidia in 2026. Spec wise, we maintain our 8-Hi adoption view across Nvidia CPX, TPU Humufish/Triggerfish/Whalefish, and custom MI450. Conversely, we see low probability of 4-Hi GPU variants and now still see the ongoing Rubin Ultra development by both 8-Hi (HBM4, 4E) and 12-Hi/384GB. Yet, SOCAMM de-spec remains, trending toward 64GB by 1Q27.
SEMICON takeaways on HBM & NVHBM: SEMICON 2026 highlighted cHBM, zHBM, with MTK's announcement to cooperate with Nvidia on NVHBM. Samsung is formalizing cHBM4E for workload-specific, targeting 16 TB/s per GPU (4 stacks) on HBM4E and projecting 2× performance for HBM5. Moving beyond 2.5D, zHBM aims for further gains via WoW and hybrid copper bonding. For NVHBM, Nvidia's collaboration with MTK positions the architecture-higher bandwidth, more die area, lower power-for future ASIC adoption, likely starting with Nvidia Feynman. Structurally, NVHBM shifts base-die design value from HBM suppliers toward Nvidia/MTK.
Risks: 1) AI demand slowdown, 2) infrastructure deployment, 3) supply constraints, 4) competition.
Overseas Technology
Focus Charts
Figure 1: DRAM Contract Price QoQ Estimates
Sources: TrendForce, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 2: NAND Contract Price QoQ Estimates
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure o. callsung o 4nDm rigure 4. NvnDM vs. otanadra NDM
GF SECURITIES (HONG KONG BROKERAGE LIMITED
Narrow Physical Interface
Larger Compute Die Area
Architecture
NVHBM
NVHBM
NVHBM
NVHBM
--- HBM
HBM
Figure 3: Samsung's zHBM
NVHBM
HBM
STACK
ZHBM
HBM
STACK
XPU
Custom XPU with NVHBM
The distance between memory and the processor limits data movement
Sources: Samsung, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 4: NVHBM vs. Standard HBM
Sources: Nvidia, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Risks
- 1) AI demand slowdown, 2) infrastructure deployment, 3) supply constraints, 4) competition.
Wider Standard Interface
Less Room for Compute
ZHBM
Architecture
HBM
STACK
Rating definitions
Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Company ratings Buy
Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Hold
Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Underperform
Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
Sector ratings
Positive
Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral
Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious
Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
Hong Kong Company
GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited
Address
27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong
Telephone
(852) 37191111
evanlee @gfgroup.com.hk