報告_GFHK_Apple_iPhone18Pro等候時間_20260915

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Apple (AAPL US)

iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max Wait-Time Lukewarm

iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max wait-time lukewarm: iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max preorders began on Sept 12 in the U.S. and many other countries. Generally speaking, the watitime appears lukewarm, with: 1) 3-4 weeks for 256GB/512GB Pro Max across all colors, as well as Burgundy 1TB in the U.S.；2) 2-3 weeks for Glacier 256GB/512GB Pro Max in China; 3) 1-2 weeks for Black/Glacier 1TB Pro Max in the U.S.；4) immediate availability for Silver 1TB and most 2TB Pro Max models in the U.S, as well as most iPhone 18 Pro configurations except for Burgundy 256GB in the U.S. We attribute the lukewarm wait-time to limited spec upgrade, higher pricing (especially for large storage models), etc. We also expect the Pro Max to be impacted by iPhone Duo and the criticism of heavy weight.

iPhone Duo feedback generally positive, yet we lower the build plan: The iPhone Duo, priced at $1,999 in the U.S., opened pre-orders on Oct 16 and officially launched on Oct 23. Early reviews were positive, highlighting its polished folding experience, high-quality inner display, and improved multitasking in iOS 27, but also point to trade-offs including a heavier and thicker form factor, a visible crease, and a dual-camera. Due to hinge constraints, we are reducing the iPhone Duo EMS build plan from 7m to 6m units in 2026. We also lower the iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max build plan to 72m units given the constraints associated with the adjustable-aperture camera.

Maintain Hold: Driven by investors' appetite being away from AI capex themes, Apple share price outperformed Nasdaq by 12% since July. Fundamentally, market's worry about memory cost is being eased but should persist, in our view. We estimate the DRAM/NAND cost to be up from $0.37 per Gb/$0.09 per GB in iPhone 17 (initial launch) to $1.5 per Gb/$0.25 per GB in iPhone 18 Pro, suggesting likely cost pressure on current pricing. Valuation wise, the share price trades at 32x FY27E P/E with 20% earnings CAGR, suggesting the stock isn't cheap. We maintain earnings estimates and TP of $369, based on 35x FY27E.

Risks: 1) weak demand, 2) competition, 3) product delays, 4) geo-tension.

Profit forecast

Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.

数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心

Maintained Hold

Target price $369

Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk

Henry Huang

SFC CE No. BYA749 henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk

Earnings Forecast

Figure 1: iPhone 18 series starting price by geography

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 2: Apple iPhone build plan forecast (m units)

Sources: Company data, IDC, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 3: Apple's P&L forecast

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Valuation and Recommendation

Hold with TP of $369

We rate Apple (AAPL US) Hold and set our TP at $369 which is based on 35x our FY27E EPS estimate. We believe it is important to capture the 2H26-3Q27's iPhone 18 product cycle, given high market interest. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market now mainly focuses on the company's earnings outlook, and we usually apply P/E method to downstream firms.

We believe Apple's ecosystem will remain strong and associated revenue durability is high. This is backed by Apple's installed base growth, double digit YoY growth in services. However, the market would wait for visibility for its Apple Intelligence. Meanwhile, the market will need more visibility on the higher-high retail prices for the iPhone 18 series due to the rising cost over tariff and 2nm/memories. That said, we expect its earnings growth to be high-teens to 20% YoY in FY26E-FY28E, from single digit YoY in FY22-FY24. Considering >30x one-year P/E, the stock doesn't look particularly cheap.

Figure 4: Apple's 12-month forward P/E

Sources: Bloomberg, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Risks

1) weak demand, 2) competition, 3) product delays, 4) geo-tension.

USD mn Cash Flow Statement

152,987 147,957 149,698 190,299 210,372 Operating cash flow

21,773 Others

83,727 Others

95,731 109,308 124,533 Others

364,980 359,241 404,747 444,984 495,029 Key Financial Ratios

37,135 Gross debt/equity

93,736 112,010 130,763 152,325 181,307 Quick Ratio

Rating definitions Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)

Company ratings Buy

Hold Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%

Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Underperform Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Sector ratings Positive

Neutral Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%

Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Cautious Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Hong Kong Company

Address GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited

27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong

Telephone

(852) 37191111

Email evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk

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