PDF 原檔：報告_Daiwa_穎崴6515_20261006_original.pdf
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55KB | 真資料圖 | Winway 月營收（TWD m）長條圖與 YoY 折線，2023/1–2026/9，2026/8 約 1,700、2026/9 約 1,250（財務圖） |
原始內容
WinWay Technology (6515 TT)
Share price (6 Oct): TWD6,130.00
12-mth rating: Buy (1)
Limited near-term catalysts before 2027 capacity unlock
Leon Chen
(886) 2 8758 6247 leon.chen@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Stacy Lin
(886) 2 8758 6252 stacy.lin@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw Summary: Winway reported September revenue of TWD1.25bn (-26.7% MoM; +87.7% YoY), brining 3Q26 revenue to a record high of TWD4.56bn (+29.3% QoQ; +152.6% YoY). The 3Q26 top-line result beat market consensus by 6.7% but missed Daiwa's estimate by 9.1%. Following August's exceptionally strong top line (TWD1.71bn), we had factored in a higher shipment run-rate for September. However, the miss stems primarily from the lumpiness of probe-card deliveries (high concentration to a single customer) and customer qualification timelines, rather than order cancellations or share loss.
We forecast 4Q26 revenue to track flattish to slightly down QoQ, reflecting lower probecard shipment volumes compared to 3Q26, alongside typical year-end pull-in deceleration from customers. On profitability, we maintain our view that 2Q26 marked the trough for gross margin this year. As the revenue contribution from lower-margin MEMS probe cards declines, a more favourable product mix should drive a steady QoQ gross margin recovery, which may drive gross margin to reach 40% earlier than market expectations.
Although we remain positive on Winway's structural growth profile, near-term catalysts appear muted. This reflects the revenue lumpiness in probe cards, while additional socket capacity will not come online until March 2027-pushing the corresponding revenue recognition into 2Q27. We will revisit our financial model upon the company's 3Q26 results release. We currently have a Buy (1) rating on Winway with a 12-month TP of TWD10,000.
Winway monthly revenue trend
Source: Company
In the interests of timeliness, this document has not been edited.
6 October 2026
Information Technology: Taiwan