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報告_Daiwa_欣興3037_20260729

更新 2026-07-31

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_欣興3037_20260729_original.pdf

本份為 2Q26 法說會後正式 review(非 flash note);vault 既有 報告_Daiwa_欣興3037_20260728 為 7/28 盤後 first-take flash note,兩份內容不同,個別保留。

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原始內容

Taiwan

Unimicron Technology Corp (3037 TT)

Target price:

TWD1,500.00 (from TWD1,000.00)

Share price (29 Jul):

TWD688.00 | Up/downside: +118.0%

2Q26 results: on-track gross margin expansion

  • Gross margin further expands on price hikes and technology migration
  • Strong capex guidance indicates a decent ABF substrate outlook
  • Reiterating Buy (1) call; lifting 12M TP to TWD1,500 (from TWD1,000)

What's new: We provide our latest view on Unimicron after 2Q26 results.

What's the impact: 2Q26 results beat . Unimicron's 2Q26 earnings came in at TWD13.1bn (EPS: TWD8.53), which was 196% and 141% higher than our and the street's expectations due to a higher-than-expected gross margin and non-operating gains. Unimicron's 2Q26 revenue grew 15% QoQ to TWD42.9bn, while we attribute revenue strength to price hikes on substrate and new capacity ramp. Management attributes half of the margin expansion in 2Q26 to price hikes and the rest to utilisation rate (UTR) and yield improvement. As such, gross margin expanded 6.9pp QoQ to 24.8%; operating margin thus expanded by 8.2pp QoQ on gross margin expansion and better opex control. Additionally, Unimicron recognised a mark-to-market gain of TWD9.2bn mainly from its holding in UMC in 2Q26.

Business outlook . We believe management holds a positive view on both revenue and gross margin trends in 2H26 given the rising AI substrate and PCB sales mix and ongoing cost inflation. In the results call, we noted investors are keen to know the development of EMIB-T and glass-core substrate, capacity expansion plan, margin trend/pricing trend, HDI strategy, etc. For EMIB-T, management guides that end customers will likely adopt this technology for at least three generations in their products, which would lead to Unimicron and the other two JP substrate companies investing in related equipment in this new packaging technology and target the first stage of yield rate at 50% in 2H27E. Of total capex, management believes only 1-2% is tailored for EMIB-T equipment, while most of the rest (c.85%) is still marked for ABF substrate capacity expansion. As Unimicron further raised capex guidance to TWD53.7bn, we expect its ABF capacity expansion plan to reach 40%/20%/20% in 2026/27/28E respectively. Unimicron may also drive slightly incremental capacity from de- bottlenecking. As for HDI strategy, it mentioned no direct contest with its Chinese competitor and a focus on non-China markets. Considering the value from substrate to gradually increase with long-term GM target at 5060%. As such, we expect GM to expand to 26.3/38.6/45.4% (up 3-7pp vs.

enlarging substate body size due to die size or co-packaging requirements and advanced technology has to cooperate with substrate, mgmt. expects our prior estimate) in 2026/27/28, respectively, along with price hike trend.

What we recommend: We lift our 2026-28E EPS by 31-66% due to higher gross margin assumptions. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call and raise our 12M TP to TWD1,500 on an unchanged target PER of 35x applied to 1-yearforward EPS. Downside risk: weaker-than-expected PC/server demand.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 26-33% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely due to our more bullish gross margin assumptions.

5

Daiwa

3

2

1

Buy

Sheng Cheng (886) 2 8758 6253 sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Allan Wang (886) 2 8758 6249 allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (0.5) 16.7 30.4
Net profit change 31.0 37.1 65.7
Core EPS (FD) change 31.1 37.1 65.7

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

Daiwa-3037 20260729_001
Daiwa-3037 20260729_002
12-month range 129.99-1,085.00
Market cap (USDbn) 32.60
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 803.05
Shares outstanding (m) 1,537
Major shareholder United Microelectronics Corp (13.0%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 186,355 278,423 371,883
Operating profit (m) 31,297 85,025 141,596
Net profit (m) 32,206 69,085 114,372
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 20.954 44.949 74.415
EPS change (%) 378.3 114.5 65.6
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 25.9 29.1 32.8
PER (x) 32.8 15.3 9.2
Dividend yield (%) 1.2 2.6 4.3
DPS 8.4 18.0 29.8
PBR (x) 7.9 5.6 3.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.2 9.3 5.5
ROE (%) 25.8 40.2 46.6

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Unimicron Technology Corp (3037 TT): 29 July 2026

Unimicron: revenue and earnings forecasts - Daiwa vs. consensus

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 187,308 186,355 184,396 238,636 278,423 265,798 285,284 371,883 349,156
Diff (%) -0.5% 1.1% 16.7% 4.7% 30.4% 6.5%
Gross Margin (%) 23.0% 26.2% 23.3% 34.4% 38.5% 32.2% 38.4% 45.6% 36.0%
Operating profit 24,828 31,297 26,831 59,331 85,025 65,240 82,472 141,596 105,856
Op Margin (%) 13.3% 16.8% 14.6% 24.9% 30.5% 24.5% 28.9% 38.1% 30.3%
Net profit 24,580 32,206 25,574 50,398 69,085 53,498 69,037 114,372 86,131
EPS 15.99 20.95 16.64 32.78 44.95 34.81 44.90 74.41 56.04
Diff (%) 31.0% 25.9% 37.1% 29.1% 65.7% 32.8%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Unimicron: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2027E 2026E 2026E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2Q 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 37,446 42,890 51,251 54,767 55,111 65,643 79,387 78,281 131,241 186,355 278,423 371,883
COGS -30,720 -32,252 -36,738 -37,849 -37,056 -41,729 -47,450 -45,086 -112,949 -137,560 -171,322 -202,396
Gross profit 6,726 10,638 14,513 16,918 18,055 23,914 31,937 33,195 18,292 48,795 107,101 169,488
Operating expenses 3,993 3,987 4,613 4,929 4,684 5,251 6,113 6,028 11,782 17,522 22,076 27,891
Operating profit 2,757 6,651 9,901 11,988 13,371 18,663 25,824 27,167 6,674 31,297 85,025 141,596
Non-operating profit 3,542 8,925 -4,428 600 621 648 639 688 2,153 8,639 2,597 2,572
Pre-tax profit 6,299 15,576 5,473 12,588 13,992 19,311 26,463 27,856 8,827 39,936 87,621 144,168
Income taxes -918 -2,233 -1,095 -2,518 -2,798 -3,862 -5,293 -5,571 -1,277 -6,764 -17,524 -28,834
Net profit 5,043 13,115 4,184 9,864 10,964 15,190 20,909 22,022 6,673 32,206 69,085 114,372
Net EPS (TWD) 3.28 8.53 2.72 6.42 7.13 9.88 13.60 14.33 4.4 21.0 44.9 74.4
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 18.0% 24.8% 28.3% 30.9% 32.8% 36.4% 40.2% 42.4% 13.9% 26.2% 38.5% 45.6%
Operating margin 7.4% 15.5% 19.3% 21.9% 24.3% 28.4% 32.5% 34.7% 5.1% 16.8% 30.5% 38.1%
Pre-tax margin 16.8% 36.3% 10.7% 23.0% 25.4% 29.4% 33.3% 35.6% 6.7% 21.4% 31.5% 38.8%
Net margin 13.5% 30.6% 8.2% 18.0% 19.9% 23.1% 26.3% 28.1% 5.1% 17.3% 24.8% 30.8%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 24% 32% 51% 58% 47% 53% 55% 43% 14% 42% 49% 34%
Gross profit 67% 151% 219% 209% 168% 125% 120% 96% 12% 167% 119% 58%
Operating profit 118% 341% 546% 407% 385% 181% 161% 127% 30% 369% 172% 67%
Pre-tax profit 359% 4266% 86% 203% 122% 24% 384% 121% 21% 352% 119% 65%
Net profit 451% 44197% 91% 179% 117% 16% 400% 123% 31% 383% 115% 66%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 8% 15% 19% 7% 1% 19% 21% -1%
Gross profit 23% 58% 36% 17% 7% 32% 34% 4%
Operating profit 17% 141% 49% 21% 12% 40% 38% 5%
Pre-tax profit 52% 147% -65% 130% 11% 38% 37% 5%
Net profit 43% 160% -68% 136% 11% 39% 38% 5%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Unimicron: 2Q26 comparison table

(TWDm) Actual QoQ% YoY% Daiwa Diff% Consensus Diff%
Revenue 42,890 15% 32% 44,404 -3% 42,708 0%
Gross profit 10,638 58% 151% 9,108 17% 9,268 15%
Gross margin (%) 24.8% 20.5% 21.7%
Operating profit 6,651 141% 341% 4,889 36% 5,486 21%
Operating margin (%) 15.5% 11.0% 12.8%
Pre-tax profit 15,576 147% 4266% 5,745 171% 7,507 107%
Net profit 13,115 160% 44197% 4,434 196% 5,439 141%
EPS (TWD) 8.53 160% 44197% 2.88 196% 3.54 141%

Source: Company data, Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

Unimicron: 1-year forward PER bands

Daiwa-3037 20260729_003

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Unimicron: 1-year forward PBR bands

Daiwa-3037 20260729_004

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Global PC shipment (mn) 361 301 260 263 287 244 244 244
Regular server shipment (mn) 14 15 12 14 16 18 22 26
Global smartphone shipment (mn) 1,655 1,437 1,380 1,437 1,429 1,249 1,255 1,300

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Substrate 57,486 93,989 66,057 70,882 76,127 117,366 203,631 293,207
HDI 27,167 26,940 21,073 27,826 35,736 46,397 52,299 55,797
Other Revenue 19,910 19,559 16,907 16,665 19,378 22,592 22,494 22,879
Total Revenue 104,563 140,489 104,036 115,373 131,241 186,355 278,423 371,883
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (80,900) (90,056) (83,735) (99,058) (112,949) (137,560) (171,322) (202,396)
SG&A (5,913) (6,478) (6,554) (6,222) (6,469) (9,768) (12,208) (15,429)
Other op.expenses (4,579) (5,783) (4,828) (4,977) (5,149) (7,730) (9,869) (12,462)
Operating profit 13,170 38,172 8,920 5,117 6,674 31,297 85,025 141,596
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (325) (447) (625) (786) (1,104) (1,075) (1,103) (1,085)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 3,784 2,150 7,280 2,990 3,257 9,714 3,700 3,657
Pre-tax profit 16,629 39,875 15,575 7,321 8,827 39,936 87,621 144,168
Tax (3,104) (8,649) (3,350) (1,765) (1,277) (6,764) (17,524) (28,834)
Min. int./pref. div./others (302) (1,607) (245) (474) (877) (966) (1,012) (963)
Net profit (reported) 13,222 29,619 11,980 5,082 6,673 32,206 69,085 114,372
Net profit (adjusted) 13,222 29,619 11,980 5,082 6,673 32,206 69,085 114,372
EPS (reported)(TWD) 8.999 20.086 7.884 3.341 4.381 20.954 44.949 74.415
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 8.999 20.086 7.884 3.341 4.381 20.954 44.949 74.415
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 8.999 20.086 7.884 3.341 4.381 20.954 44.949 74.415
DPS (TWD) 3.400 7.993 3.000 1.500 1.752 8.381 17.980 29.766
EBIT 13,170 38,172 8,920 5,117 6,674 31,297 85,025 141,596
EBITDA 22,944 49,899 24,017 22,347 25,447 52,285 108,636 168,159

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 16,629 39,875 15,575 7,321 8,827 39,936 87,621 144,168
Depreciation and amortisation 9,774 11,727 15,097 17,231 18,773 20,988 23,611 26,563
Tax paid (3,104) (8,649) (3,350) (1,765) (1,277) (6,764) (17,524) (28,834)
Change in working capital (8,156) (7,696) 12,490 (5,295) (4,548) (8,883) (13,631) (11,324)
Other operational CF items 27,814 25,826 (8,913) (7,198) (6,808) (2,070) (0) (0)
Cash flow from operations 42,957 61,082 30,900 10,294 14,967 43,207 80,077 130,574
Capex (23,167) (32,073) (22,938) (26,128) (25,617) (50,475) (25,000) (25,000)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (1,289) (1,323) 1,839 (3,102) 2,600 2,681 2,333 3,497
Cash flow from investing (24,456) (33,396) (21,099) (29,230) (23,018) (47,793) (22,667) (21,503)
Change in debt (1,412) (818) (6,210) 13,215 9,324 6,917 8,455 8,471
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (2,055) (5,016) (12,190) (4,575) (2,295) (2,693) (12,882) (27,634)
Other financing CF items (518) 1,003 341 (303) 12,044 3,730 0 0
Cash flow from financing (3,984) (4,831) (18,060) 8,336 19,073 7,955 (4,426) (19,163)
Forex effect/others 691 (797) (341) 1,494 96 1,171 1,338 1,146
Change in cash 15,207 22,058 (8,600) (9,106) 11,118 4,539 54,322 91,054
Free cash flow 19,789 29,009 7,962 (15,834) (10,650) (7,268) 55,077 105,574

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Unimicron Technology Corp (3037 TT): 29 July 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 39,498 61,496 52,948 43,972 55,049 59,651 113,973 205,027
Inventory 12,152 12,835 10,927 14,863 17,802 22,355 27,050 31,933
Accounts receivable 23,639 28,746 18,563 23,612 27,565 43,765 62,378 80,132
Other current assets 4,588 4,511 4,141 4,423 4,882 5,813 5,813 5,813
Total current assets 79,877 107,588 86,579 86,869 105,298 131,585 209,214 322,905
Fixed assets 77,869 99,297 116,168 127,593 134,103 162,556 163,945 162,382
Goodwill & intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 12,309 11,779 13,259 16,385 16,391 17,393 15,059 11,563
Total assets 170,055 218,663 216,006 230,847 255,792 311,533 388,218 496,850
Short-term debt 12,771 10,056 5,574 10,871 22,206 30,886 36,787 42,943
Accounts payable 29,928 33,419 29,839 34,362 38,848 50,190 59,866 71,179
Other current liabilities 6,361 11,417 8,834 13,148 14,401 21,236 21,236 21,236
Total current liabilities 49,060 54,893 44,247 58,382 75,455 102,311 117,888 135,358
Long-term debt 22,242 24,563 24,807 32,905 34,873 27,360 29,914 32,229
Other non-current liabilities 33,236 46,550 50,667 39,973 38,457 39,392 39,392 39,392
Total liabilities 104,539 126,005 119,721 131,260 148,785 169,063 187,195 206,980
Share capital 14,753 14,784 15,251 15,300 15,296 15,892 15,892 15,892
Reserves/R.E./others 50,764 77,875 81,033 84,287 91,711 126,577 185,131 273,978
Shareholders' equity 65,516 92,658 96,284 99,587 107,007 142,470 201,023 289,870
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 170,055 218,663 216,006 230,847 255,792 311,533 388,218 496,850
EV 1,052,940 1,030,548 1,034,857 1,057,228 1,059,454 1,056,019 1,010,152 927,570
Net debt/(cash) (4,484) (26,876) (22,567) (196) 2,030 (1,405) (47,272) (129,855)
BVPS (TWD) 41.154 57.993 59.445 60.958 65.749 87.005 123.212 178.512

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 19.0 34.4 (25.9) 10.9 13.8 42.0 49.4 33.6
EBITDA (YoY) 78.2 117.5 (51.9) (7.0) 13.9 105.5 107.8 54.8
Operating profit (YoY) 227.9 189.8 (76.6) (42.6) 30.4 368.9 171.7 66.5
Net profit (YoY) 142.1 124.0 (59.6) (57.6) 31.3 382.6 114.5 65.6
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 140.3 123.2 (60.7) (57.6) 31.1 378.3 114.5 65.6
Gross-profit margin 22.6 35.9 19.5 14.1 13.9 26.2 38.5 45.6
EBITDA margin 21.9 35.5 23.1 19.4 19.4 28.1 39.0 45.2
Operating-profit margin 12.6 27.2 8.6 4.4 5.1 16.8 30.5 38.1
Net profit margin 12.6 21.1 11.5 4.4 5.1 17.3 24.8 30.8
ROAE 22.3 37.5 12.7 5.2 6.5 25.8 40.2 46.6
ROAA 9.0 15.2 5.5 2.3 2.7 11.4 19.7 25.8
ROCE 13.9 33.5 7.0 3.8 4.3 17.2 36.3 44.8
ROIC 16.9 47.1 10.0 4.5 5.5 20.8 46.1 72.2
Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash 0.0 2.1 2.0 net cash net cash
Effective tax rate 18.7 21.7 21.5 24.1 14.5 16.9 20.0 20.0
Accounts receivable (days) 71.4 68.1 83.0 66.7 71.2 69.9 69.6 69.9
Current ratio (x) 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.8 2.4
Net interest cover (x) 52.2 90.2 25.9 10.3 9.0 38.1 80.4 133.8
Net dividend payout 37.8 39.8 38.1 44.8 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
Free cash flow yield 1.9 2.7 0.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.2 10.0

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Unimicron is a leading global manufacturer of IC substrate. The company also produces high-density interconnection (HDI) boards, flexible PCBs (FPC), and rigid flex PCBs (RFPCB). The company has manufacturing sites in Taiwan, China, Japan and Germany, with products' major applications including servers, PC/NB, and smartphones.

Unimicron Technology Corp (3037 TT): 29 July 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
Executive/board quality 1 including business management, financial accounting, chemical industry, physics and investment. This diversity enables the board to provide comprehensive oversight and guidance across various aspects of corporate governance, environmental sustainability and social responsibility. The board includes three independent directors, one of whom is female, ensuring a degree of independence and gender diversity in its composition. Unimicron's
G Capital management 1 Unimicron's capital management strategy focuses on ensuring the availability of necessary financial resources to support its operations and growth. This approach reflects a commitment to maintaining a robust financial position, which is essential for sustainable development and resilience in the high-tech electronics industry. Overall, Unimicron's capital management practices demonstrate a prudent approach to financial governance, aligning with ESG principles by ensuring financial stability and supporting sustainable growth.
Related party & transaction 2 Unimicron engages in related-party transactions, primarily involving its subsidiaries and affiliates. These transactions include sales, purchases and investments conducted under terms comparable to those with independent third parties. The company adheres to established procedures for board meetings, which include provisions for handling related-party transactions. Significant transactions, such as donations to related parties or major donations to non-related parties, require board approval to ensure transparency and compliance with corporate governance standards.
S Supply chain management 1 Unimicron demonstrates a strong commitment to sustainable supply chain management, integrating risk management into daily procurement activities. The company has established a Procurement Risk Management Procedure within its supply chain risk framework, utilising a risk matrix to assess and mitigate potential risks. The company holds annual supplier meetings to communicate standards and expectations, and to recognise outstanding suppliers. Overall, Unimicron's supply chain management practices reflect a comprehensive approach to sustainability, risk management and supplier collaboration, aligning with its corporate social responsibility objectives.
E Data security 1 Unimicron places significant emphasis on data security and privacy protection. The company has established an Information Security Management Committee to oversee and implement its data security strategies. This committee is responsible for formulating and enforcing the Information Security Management Plan, which includes measures to protect customer privacy and ensure the integrity of information systems. The company also adheres to a comprehensive Privacy Policy that outlines the collection, use and protection of personal information. This policy ensures compliance with relevant data protection regulations and demonstrates the company's commitment to maintaining the confidentiality and security of personal data.

Update Date: 25 Feb 2026 Source: Daiwa, Company Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Unimicron Technology Corp (3037 TT): 29 July 2026

Daiwa