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報告_Daiwa_景碩3189_20260731

更新 2026-08-03

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原始內容

Taiwan

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (3189 TT)

Target price:

TWD1,068.00 (from TWD588.00)

Share price (31 Jul): TWD635.00 | Up/downside: +68.2%

2Q26 results: gross margin expansion story continues

  • Riding on a favourable pricing environment for both ABF/BT substrate
  • New upsides from CPU market share and optical transceivers
  • Reaffirming Buy (1) call; raising 12M TP to TWD1,068 (from TWD588)

What's new: We provide our latest view on Kinsus after its 2Q26 results.

What's the impact: 2Q26 results beat on profitability. Kinsus released its results on 31 July, with net income of TWD1.31bn (EPS: TWD2.80), beating our estimate and consensus by 25%/11%, respectively. 2Q26 sales (TWD12.5bn; up 13% QoQ; 31% YoY) were on track with the street's expectations; we attribute the QoQ growth to price hikes and rising utilisation rates, given solid AI server demand. Hence, gross margin rose by 4.9pp QoQ to 26.1%, mainly on price hikes, while operating margin further rose by 5.4pp QoQ to 13.4% on gross margin expansion and better opex control.

Business outlook. We hold a positive view on the substrate industry given the enlarging body-size trend and the slower capacity expansion plan, which should lead to a positive pricing trend ahead. Currently, we expect a c.10% price hike per quarter for both ABF/BT substrate from 2H26 to 2027. The higher-than-expected price hike would be key reasons why we lift GM by 1.9/5.0/7.4pp in 2026/27/28E, respectively. In terms of near-term outlook, we expect revenue to grow another 10% in both 3Q26 and 4Q26, due mainly to price hikes, while the new capacity will gradually ramp up from 2027. Based on our current understanding, Kinsus will have 40/50/65/80m ABF unit capacity in 2026-29E, respectively, with YoY growth of c.20%/30%/23%, while Kinsus targets to invest c.TWD14/16/18bn in 2026-28 to boost capacity. From 2028, 4-5 key end customers would purchase additional equipment for Kinsus to produce ABF substrates as Kinsus believes the equipment subsidy method will be better than longterm agreement (LTA) to maintain profitability. In terms of key products, we believe Kinsus controls c.50% market share in Nvidia's CPU product, which may increase to 100%, given the capacity constraints in the industry. Also, due to supply shortage of mSAP HDI, optical transceiver makers would also consider adopting BT substrate to facilitate DSP and optics chipsets. As of now, optical transceivers only account for 1-2% of its revenue but is likely to grow 10x and account for c.5% of revenue in 2027, we estimate.

What we recommend: We lift our 2026-28E earnings by 14-66% YoY to reflect higher-than-expected price hikes for substrates. We reaffirm our Buy (1) rating and raise our 12M TP to TWD1,068, based on a target PER of 36x (prior: 32x; high end of its past-3-year trading range of 10-36x), applied to 1-year-forward EPS, to reflect the improving pricing environment and c.134% earnings CAGR in 2026-2028E. Key downside risks: weaker-thanexpected demand for memory/PCs/gaming GPUs/AI servers.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 4-31% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely due to our more bullish view on price hikes.

31 July 2026

5

Daiwa

3

2

1

Buy

Sheng Cheng (886) 2 8758 6253 sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Allan Wang (886) 2 8758 6249 allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (4.8) 7.6 19.3
Net profit change 16.9 49.1 70.6
Core EPS (FD) change 13.6 44.9 65.8

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

260731_daiwa_Kinsus_001
260731_daiwa_Kinsus_002
12-month range 97.64-891.00
Market cap (USDbn) 9.16
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 420.77
Shares outstanding (m) 468
Major shareholder Asus Investment Co Ltd (13.2%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 53,385 88,484 122,920
Operating profit (m) 7,578 20,449 38,330
Net profit (m) 5,855 17,344 33,395
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 12.498 37.023 71.287
EPS change (%) 256.5 196.2 92.5
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 3.8 31.4 27.5
PER (x) 50.8 17.2 8.9
Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.7 0.7
DPS 3.5 4.5 4.5
PBR (x) 7.3 5.4 3.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.0 9.0 4.7
ROE (%) 12.1 27.1 37.6

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Kinsus: revenue and earnings forecast revisions

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 56,055 53,385 54,064 82,270 88,484 79,330 103,073 122,920 121,719
Diff (%) -4.8% -1.3% 7.6% 11.5% 19.3% 1.0%
Gross Margin (%) 25.0% 27.0% 26.4% 30.6% 35.6% 32.0% 35.8% 43.2% 36.9%
Operating profit 6,663 7,578 7,555 14,122 20,449 16,510 22,999 38,330 30,846
Op Margin (%) 11.9% 14.2% 14.0% 17.2% 23.1% 20.8% 22.3% 31.2% 25.3%
Net profit 5,010 5,855 5,641 11,635 17,344 13,203 19,579 33,395 26,182
EPS 11.00 12.50 12.04 25.55 37.02 28.18 43.00 71.29 55.89
Diff (%) 13.6% 3.8% 44.9% 31.4% 65.8% 27.5%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Kinsus: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2Q 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 11,105 12,496 14,137 15,646 17,624 20,789 24,135 25,936 39,351 53,385 88,484 122,920
COGS (8,755) (9,235) (10,059) (10,907) (11,852) (13,562) (15,436) (16,107) (31,037) (38,956) (56,957) (69,840)
Gross profit 2,349 3,261 4,079 4,739 5,772 7,226 8,700 9,829 8,314 14,428 31,527 53,080
Operating expenses 1,459 1,582 1,838 1,971 2,221 2,599 3,017 3,242 5,645 6,850 11,078 14,750
Operating profit 891 1,679 2,241 2,768 3,552 4,628 5,683 6,587 2,670 7,578 20,449 38,330
Non-operating profit 74 106 87 89 92 84 89 92 417 355 357 356
Pre-tax profit 964 1,784 2,328 2,857 3,644 4,712 5,772 6,679 3,087 7,933 20,806 38,686
Income taxes (89) (101) (233) (286) (364) (471) (577) (668) (370) (708) (2,081) (3,869)
Net profit 549 1,311 1,784 2,211 2,965 3,904 4,848 5,627 1,596 5,855 17,344 33,395
Net EPS (TWD) 1.17 2.80 3.81 4.72 6.33 8.33 10.35 12.01 3.5 12.5 37.0 71.3
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 21.2% 26.1% 28.9% 30.3% 32.8% 34.8% 36.0% 37.9% 21.1% 27.0% 35.6% 43.2%
Operating margin 8.0% 13.4% 15.9% 17.7% 20.2% 22.3% 23.5% 25.4% 6.8% 14.2% 23.1% 31.2%
Pre-tax margin 8.7% 14.3% 16.5% 18.3% 20.7% 22.7% 23.9% 25.8% 7.8% 14.9% 23.5% 31.5%
Net margin 4.9% 10.5% 12.6% 14.1% 16.8% 18.8% 20.1% 21.7% 4.1% 11.0% 19.6% 27.2%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 29% 31% 37% 45% 59% 66% 71% 66% 29% 36% 66% 39%
Gross profit 21% 62% 108% 98% 146% 122% 113% 107% -4% 74% 119% 68%
Operating profit 78% 171% 257% 201% 299% 176% 154% 138% 144% 184% 170% 87%
Pre-tax profit 38% 188% 227% 171% 278% 164% 148% 134% 93% 157% 162% 86%
Net profit 99% 288% 426% 244% 440% 198% 172% 154% 3164% 267% 196% 93%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 3% 13% 13% 11% 13% 18% 16% 7%
Gross profit -2% 39% 25% 16% 22% 25% 20% 13%
Operating profit -3% 88% 33% 24% 28% 30% 23% 16%
Pre-tax profit -9% 85% 30% 23% 28% 29% 22% 16%
Net profit -14% 139% 36% 24% 34% 32% 24% 16%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Kinsus: 2Q26 results vs. Daiwa and Bloomberg estimates

(TWDm) Actual QoQ% YoY% Daiwa Diff% Consensus Diff%
Revenue 12,496 13% 31% 13,083 -4% 12,529 0%
Gross profit 3,261 39% 62% 3,123 4% 3,221 1%
Gross margin (%) 26.1% 23.9% 25.7%
Operating profit 1,679 88% 171% 1,404 20% 1,623 3%
Operating margin (%) 13.4% 10.7% 13.0%
Pre-tax profit 1,784 85% 188% 1,488 20% 1,691 6%
Net profit 1,311 139% 288% 1,048 25% 1,183 11%
EPS (TWD) 2.80 139% 288% 2.30 25% 2.52 11%

Source: Company data, Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

Kinsus: 1-year forward PER bands

260731_daiwa_Kinsus_003

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (3189 TT): 31 July 2026

Kinsus: revenue breakdown by product

260731_daiwa_Kinsus_004

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Global PC shipment (mn) 361 301 260 263 287 244 244 244
Regular server shipmnet (mn) 14 15 12 14 16 18 22 26
Global smartphone shipment (mn) 1,655 1,437 1,380 1,437 1,429 1,249 1,255 1,300

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
ABF 10,191 16,526 11,978 13,319 17,998 24,103 46,191 74,811
BT 17,565 18,796 8,065 10,398 14,314 21,010 33,194 38,101
Other Revenue 5,580 6,336 6,790 6,817 7,039 8,272 9,098 10,008
Total Revenue 33,336 41,658 26,832 30,535 39,351 53,385 88,484 122,920
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (22,583) (25,771) (20,075) (21,867) (31,037) (38,956) (56,957) (69,840)
SG&A (2,879) (3,532) (3,301) (5,010) (3,433) (4,218) (6,963) (9,108)
Other op.expenses (2,413) (2,484) (2,397) (2,612) (2,212) (2,632) (4,115) (5,642)
Operating profit 5,456 9,851 1,042 1,095 2,670 7,578 20,449 38,330
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (68) (172) (332) (394) (391) (394) (391) (393)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 253 607 716 902 809 749 748 749
Pre-tax profit 5,641 10,287 1,426 1,603 3,087 7,933 20,806 38,686
Tax (672) (2,158) (256) (272) (370) (708) (2,081) (3,869)
Min. int./pref. div./others (633) (957) (1,123) (1,282) (1,121) (1,370) (1,381) (1,422)
Net profit (reported) 4,336 7,172 48 49 1,596 5,855 17,344 33,395
Net profit (adjusted) 4,336 7,172 48 49 1,596 5,855 17,344 33,395
EPS (reported)(TWD) 9.622 15.901 0.105 0.108 3.505 12.498 37.023 71.287
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 9.622 15.901 0.105 0.108 3.505 12.498 37.023 71.287
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 9.622 15.901 0.105 0.108 3.505 12.498 37.023 71.287
DPS (TWD) 4.500 6.476 1.000 1.000 1.500 3.500 4.500 4.500
EBIT 5,456 9,851 1,042 1,095 2,670 7,578 20,449 38,330
EBITDA 9,833 14,958 6,394 7,228 9,914 15,646 29,324 48,092

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 5,641 10,287 1,426 1,603 3,087 7,933 20,806 38,686
Depreciation and amortisation 4,377 5,107 5,351 6,133 7,244 8,068 8,875 9,762
Tax paid (672) (2,158) (256) (272) (370) (708) (2,081) (3,869)
Change in working capital (1,347) (176) 1,528 (906) (1,959) (2,075) (3,148) (3,551)
Other operational CF items 2,575 2,901 (1,793) 1,147 91 (829) 0 (0)
Cash flow from operations 10,574 15,961 6,256 7,705 8,093 12,389 24,452 41,028
Capex (13,384) (17,094) (10,136) (10,408) (6,117) (5,436) (3,805) (2,664)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items 489 559 (2,351) 1,301 (1,752) (4,115) (104) (175)
Cash flow from investing (12,895) (16,535) (12,486) (9,107) (7,869) (9,551) (3,909) (2,839)
Change in debt 6,544 1,903 6,043 1,624 (1,333) (8,836) (529) (222)
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (451) (2,443) (3,438) (454) (457) (288) (1,640) (2,108)
Other financing CF items (94) 2,411 2,730 (173) (1,481) 7,728 0 0
Cash flow from financing 6,000 1,870 5,335 996 (3,270) (1,397) (2,169) (2,330)
Forex effect/others (12) 56 (88) 71 (39) 41 33 28
Change in cash 3,667 1,352 (983) (335) (3,084) 1,483 18,407 35,888
Free cash flow (2,809) (1,133) (3,880) (2,703) 1,976 6,953 20,647 38,365

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (3189 TT): 31 July 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 15,968 17,923 21,013 16,676 16,336 22,267 40,674 76,563
Inventory 3,466 3,481 2,612 2,981 4,828 6,675 9,858 11,306
Accounts receivable 5,679 5,050 4,299 5,284 6,804 9,630 15,962 20,963
Other current assets 1,312 1,647 1,445 4,735 970 1,076 1,076 1,076
Total current assets 26,424 28,100 29,369 29,677 28,938 39,648 67,570 109,907
Fixed assets 31,586 44,101 48,209 49,658 50,897 48,154 43,084 35,985
Goodwill & intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 376 432 489 100 138 312 417 592
Total assets 58,386 72,633 78,067 79,435 79,973 88,115 111,071 146,484
Short-term debt 1,100 377 1,409 2,452 3,053 979 450 346
Accounts payable 10,150 10,798 8,457 7,521 10,030 13,356 19,723 22,620
Other current liabilities 2,733 4,199 4,393 7,018 7,023 5,816 5,816 5,816
Total current liabilities 13,983 15,374 14,259 16,990 20,106 20,151 25,989 28,783
Long-term debt 9,387 10,770 15,280 13,779 11,197 5,735 5,735 5,617
Other non-current liabilities 2,027 7,674 9,369 8,788 7,297 6,805 6,805 6,805
Total liabilities 25,397 33,818 38,908 39,557 38,600 32,691 38,529 41,205
Share capital 4,508 4,528 4,544 4,566 4,568 5,269 5,269 5,269
Reserves/R.E./others 28,481 34,288 34,615 35,312 36,805 50,154 67,272 100,010
Shareholders' equity 32,989 38,816 39,159 39,878 41,373 55,423 72,542 105,279
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 58,386 72,633 78,067 79,435 79,973 88,115 111,071 146,484
EV 291,995 290,700 293,151 297,031 295,391 281,923 262,986 226,876
Net debt/(cash) (5,481) (6,776) (4,325) (445) (2,085) (15,553) (34,490) (70,600)
BVPS (TWD) 64.478 75.804 69.748 69.314 71.656 87.418 117.285 176.717

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 23.0 25.0 (35.6) 13.8 28.9 35.7 65.7 38.9
EBITDA (YoY) 70.8 52.1 (57.3) 13.1 37.1 57.8 87.4 64.0
Operating profit (YoY) 307.0 80.6 (89.4) 5.1 143.7 183.8 169.8 87.4
Net profit (YoY) 700.2 65.4 (99.3) 2.9 3,164.4 266.9 196.2 92.5
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 698.1 65.3 (99.3) 2.5 3,153.4 256.5 196.2 92.5
Gross-profit margin 32.3 38.1 25.2 28.4 21.1 27.0 35.6 43.2
EBITDA margin 29.5 35.9 23.8 23.7 25.2 29.3 33.1 39.1
Operating-profit margin 16.4 23.6 3.9 3.6 6.8 14.2 23.1 31.2
Net profit margin 13.0 17.2 0.2 0.2 4.1 11.0 19.6 27.2
ROAE 13.9 20.0 0.1 0.1 3.9 12.1 27.1 37.6
ROAA 8.6 10.9 0.1 0.1 2.0 7.0 17.4 25.9
ROCE 14.0 21.1 2.0 2.0 4.8 12.9 29.0 40.4
ROIC 19.9 26.1 2.6 2.4 6.0 17.4 47.2 94.9
Net debt to equity net cash net cash 2.5 4.6 4.8 net cash net cash net cash
Effective tax rate 11.9 21.0 17.9 17.0 12.0 8.9 10.0 10.0
Accounts receivable (days) 55.2 47.0 63.6 57.3 56.1 56.2 52.8 54.8
Current ratio (x) 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.8
Net interest cover (x) 84.0 61.0 5.3 5.1 8.9 21.2 54.2 99.6
Net dividend payout 52.6 41.9 909.2 909.2 42.7 28.0 12.2 6.3
Free cash flow yield n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.7 2.3 6.9 12.9

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Kinsus was founded in 2000 as a subsidiary of Asustek. The company mainly focus on niche ball grid array (BGA) substrates to avoid price competition among mainstream products like graphics card and chipsets, and it has become top-3 flip chip manufacturer in global. Besides, its manufacturing sites are based in Taiwan and China.

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (3189 TT): 31 July 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
Executive/board quality 2 Kinsus's leadership team comprises experienced professionals dedicated to steering the company towards sustainable growth. This diverse board composition ensures a comprehensive range of expertise and perspectives, contributing to Kinsus's strategic decision-making and corporate governamce.
G Capital management 2 Kinsus maintains a robust financial framework, ensuring the availability of resources necessary for operational efficiency and strategic investments. The company's financial health is regularly disclosed through annual reports, providing transparency to stakeholders.
Supply chain Related party & transaction 1 The company adheres to stringent corporate governance policies to manage related party transactions, ensuring transparency and compliance with regulatory standards. The company discloses such transactions in its financial reports, maintaining accountability and stakeholder trust. For instance, the company's annual general meeting documents provide details on related party transactions, ensuring transparency and accountability.
S management 1 Kinsus is committed to sustainable supply chain practices, emphasizing environmental, social, and governance considerations. The company has established comprehensive ESG policies, including commitments to labor standards, environmental health and safety, ethics, and conflict- free minerals. These policies guide the company's interactions with suppliers and partners, promoting sustainability throughout the supply chain.
E Data security 3 The company recognizes the importance of information security in its operations. As part of its corporate governance framework, Kinsus is likely to implement standard data protection practices to safeguard sensitive information and ensure compliance with relevant regulations. Stakeholders are encouraged to consult the company's official communications or contact the company directly for detailed information on data security policies.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 31 Jan 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (3189 TT): 31 July 2026

Daiwa