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報告_Daiwa_南亞科2408_20261007

更新 2026-10-12

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_南亞科2408_20261007_original.pdf

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-10-12)

5 張抽圖皆 <40KB,因皆為圖表仍逐張檢視;lib 嵌圖只從此清單挑「真資料圖」。

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_南亞科2408_20261007_001.png 22KB 真資料圖 Nanya Tech 股價(左軸 TWD)與相對加權指數(右軸 %)走勢,Oct-25 至 Oct-26,股價自約 80 元升至逾 500 元
報告_Daiwa_南亞科2408_20261007_002.png 18KB 真資料圖 季營收(長條,TWD bn)與營益率(折線):1Q26 至 4Q27E 季度走勢,營益率自約 61% 升至約 81% 後持平
報告_Daiwa_南亞科2408_20261007_003.png 31KB 真資料圖 月營收(長條,TWD mn)與 YoY(折線):Sep-24 至 Sep-26,Jul-26 起三根淺藍長條約 4.4–4.5 萬
報告_Daiwa_南亞科2408_20261007_004.png 26KB 真資料圖 DRAM 現貨價走勢(USD):DDR5 16Gb 4800/5600Mbps 與 DDR4 16Gb 3200Mbps,Oct-25 至 Oct-26;DDR4 約 13 美元升至 Sep-26 高點約 93 美元後回落至約 83 美元,DDR5 約 8 美元升至約 58 美元
報告_Daiwa_南亞科2408_20261007_005.png 29KB 真資料圖 12 個月 forward PER 區間圖(Oct-19 至 Oct-26,股價線與 3.2x/4.2x/5.2x/6.2x/7.2x 五條倍數線)

原始內容

Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Target price: TWD700.00 (from TWD650.00)

Shareprice(7Oct):TWD514.00 | Up/downside:+36.2%

Robust revenue likely to drive earnings beat

  • 3Q26E earnings to beat consensus estimate, led by DRAM prices
  • DDR4 supply shortages to persist in 2027E; upcoming dividend policy
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) call and lifting our 12M TP to TWD700

What's new: Nanya announced its September revenue after market hours on 5 October. Following the significant jump in July revenue (49% MoM, 720% YoY, see our memo), it maintained stable revenue in August and September, resulting in robust revenue growth in 3Q26. We also expect its operating profit to beat consensus, led by higher DRAM prices. While demand for DDR3/DDR4 remains solid, we expect supply shortages to continue in 2027, given major memory players' focus on DDR5 production. We also expect Nanya to announce shareholder returns, primarily in the form of dividends, during its 3Q26 earnings conference call.

What's the impact: 3Q26E earnings to beat consensus. Nanya posted revenue of TWD134bn (+62% QoQ, +612% YoY) in 3Q26, beating the Bloomberg consensus by 16%. We also estimate its operating profit at TWD109bn (+79% QoQ, +9,608% YoY), above consensus. We forecast bit shipments to increase by 5% QoQ and DRAM ASPs to rise by 53% QoQ, exceeding our and market estimates. With DDR3/DDR4 demand remaining robust, we expect major memory players' focus on DDR5 production to drive supply shortages, resulting in higher prices in 3Q26. We expect further earnings improvement in 4Q26, driven by persistent price hikes.

DDR4 supply shortages to continue in 2027E; enhanced dividend policy expected. During the meeting in July, management said it expects long-term solid demand for DDR4 in eSSD and networking applications. Based on long-term agreements (LTAs) with major customers, we expect Nanya to expand its DDR4 supply for eSSD. We estimate that the 1B node will account for c.40% of DRAM output in 4Q26, with new capacity starting mass production in 3Q27. On capex, we expect the company to exceed its 2026 guidance of TWD50bn to keep up with end-market demand and LTA volumes, and to more than double capex YoY in 2027. For shareholder returns, we expect an additional policy to be announced at the 3Q26 conference call. While the company has guided for a payout ratio of c.40%, we expect it to exceed 50%, given the faster-than-expected growth. We raise our 2026-27E EPS by 30-38% to reflect higher DDR3/4 DRAM prices.

What we recommend: We reiterate our Buy (1) rating and raise our 12month TP to TWD700 (from TWD650), based on a target PER of 7.4x (from 9.2x) applied to our 2026-27E EPS. We lower our target multiple by 20% to reflect the recent derating of peer valuations. Downside risk: Delays in data centre build-outs.

How we differ: Our 2026-27E EPS are 6-13% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely as we are more positive about the DDR4 price outlook.

3

2

1

(unchanged)

SK Kim (82) 2 787 9173 sk.kim@kr.daiwacm.com

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 21.0 32.8 43.1
Net profit change 27.0 38.2 71.1
Core EPS (FD) change 30.4 38.2 71.1

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 86.30-543.00
Market cap (USDbn) 52.92
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 1,082.62
Shares outstanding (m) 3,274
Major shareholder Nanya Plastics Corp (29.3%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 401,091 625,829 687,408
Operating profit (m) 309,869 502,559 531,635
Net profit (m) 251,467 394,862 447,508
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 76.797 114.446 129.705
EPS change (%) n.a. 49.0 13.3
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 12.6 6.3 7.6
PER (x) 6.7 4.5 4.0
Dividend yield (%) 8.2 12.2 15.1
DPS 42.2 62.9 77.8
PBR (x) 3.4 2.4 1.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.3 2.4 2.1
ROE (%) 44.9 63.3 51.3

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Nanya: 3Q26 preview

(TWDm) 3Q26E 2Q26 QoQ growth 3Q25 YoY growth BBG consensus Diff
Revenue 133,649 82,549 62% 18,779 612% 115,222 16%
Operating Profit 108,647 60,826 79% 1,119 9608% 90,376 20%
OP margin 81.3% 73.7% 6.0% 78.4%

Source: Company, Bloomberg

Note: Bloomberg consensus as of 7 October 2026, 3Q26 revenue reflects actual figures (September data announced on 5 October).

Nanya: earnings outlook

(TWDm) 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue 49,087 82,549 133,649 135,806 66,587 401,091 625,829 687,408
Operating profit 30,111 60,826 108,647 110,284 5,243 309,869 502,559 531,635
OP margin (%) 61.3% 73.7% 81.3% 81.2% 7.9% 77.3% 80.3% 77.3%
Net profit 26,059 50,192 87,301 87,916 6,603 251,467 394,862 447,508

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Nanya: key assumptions

1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
DRAM
Bit growth (q-q%) 1.0% -2.9% 4.8% -5.0% 53.8% 32.9% 3.2% 16.5%
ASP (q-q%) 56.3% 68.0% 52.7% 7.5% 22.7% 348.3% 50.0% -5.2%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Nanya: revenue and operating margin forecasts

Nanya: monthly revenue and growth YoY trend

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

DRAM spot price trend

Source: Company

報告_Daiwa_南亞科2408_20261007_004

Nanya: 12-month forward PER band

Source: DRAM eXchange, Daiwa

Note: As of 7 October, 2026

Nanya: peers valuation comparison

Company Ticker - (Bloomberg) Recom. Price curr) - (Local Mkt cap (USD - $m) FY26E P/E (x) - FY27E FY26E P/BV (x) - FY27E FY26E ROE (%) - FY27E EV/EBITDA - FY26E EV/EBITDA - FY27E Div yield (%) - FY26E Div yield (%) - FY27E
Coverage
Nanya Technology 2408 TT Buy 514 55,870 6.7 4.5 3.4 2.4 44.9% 63.3% 4.3 2.4 8.2% 12.2%
Semiconductor
Samsung Electronics 005930 KS Buy 268,500 1,189,218 6.4 3.7 2.9 1.7 48.8% 56.0% 3.5 1.6 3.7% 4.6%
SK Hynix 000660 KS Buy 1,723,000 952,413 5.3 3.5 3.2 1.6 94.3% 59.1% 3.7 1.5 0.3% 0.5%
Micron Technology MU US Buy 1,046 1,180,848 13.8 5.7 8.6 3.7 46.3% 48.9% 10.1 3.9 0.0% 0.1%
Winbond 2344 TT Not Rated 180 25,279 6.9 2.6 3.5 1.8 64.6% 71.1% 4.8 2.0 4.5% 10.4%
Average 8.1 3.9 4.55 2.2 63.5% 58.8% 5.5 2.3 2.1% 3.9%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Note: Share price as of 7 October 2026, Oversea companies as of 6 October 2026

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
DRAM bit growth (%) (0.5) (27.4) (4.3) 0.9 53.8 32.9 3.2 16.5
DRAM ASP (%) 50.7 (16.8) (44.7) 11.3 22.7 348.3 50.0 (5.2)
Wafer capacity per month 73.0 66.3 55.8 61.3 60.0 72.5 86.3 106.3

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
DRAM 85,604 56,952 29,892 34,132 66,607 402,584 625,829 687,408
Other Revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Total Revenue 85,604 56,952 29,892 34,132 66,587 401,091 625,829 687,408
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (48,560) (35,610) (34,375) (34,552) (51,602) (74,751) (105,419) (138,732)
SG&A (2,358) (2,498) (2,401) (2,449) (2,700) (8,121) (12,315) (12,137)
Other op.expenses (7,500) (7,841) (7,576) (7,685) (7,041) (8,350) (5,536) (4,904)
Operating profit 27,186 11,002 (14,460) (10,555) 5,243 309,869 502,559 531,635
Net-interest inc./(exp.) 250 1,346 3,014 2,974 1,907 2,159 574 578
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 331 4,529 742 1,103 732 1,040 136 534
Pre-tax profit 27,767 16,877 (10,705) (6,477) 7,882 313,068 503,269 532,747
Tax (4,918) (2,258) 3,265 1,055 (1,279) (61,602) (108,407) (85,240)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1
Net profit (reported) 22,849 14,619 (7,440) (5,422) 6,603 251,467 394,862 447,508
Net profit (adjusted) 22,849 14,619 (7,440) (5,422) 6,603 251,467 394,862 447,508
EPS (reported)(TWD) 7.378 4.720 (2.401) (1.750) 2.131 76.797 114.446 129.705
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 7.378 4.720 (2.401) (1.750) 2.131 76.797 114.446 129.705
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 7.378 4.720 (2.401) (1.750) 2.131 76.797 114.446 129.705
DPS (TWD) 1.292 3.703 0.000 0.000 1.501 42.239 62.945 77.823
EBIT 27,186 11,002 (14,460) (10,555) 5,243 309,869 502,559 531,635
EBITDA 42,480 26,249 865 5,589 19,524 323,312 520,319 553,735

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 27,767 16,877 (10,705) (6,477) 7,882 313,068 503,269 532,747
Depreciation and amortisation 15,294 15,247 15,326 16,144 14,281 13,443 17,760 22,100
Tax paid (4,918) (2,258) 3,265 1,055 (1,279) (61,602) (108,407) (85,240)
Change in working capital 130 (6,179) (6,486) (8,461) (3,638) (57,621) (32,239) 1,181
Other operational CF items 6,160 (2,251) (7,028) (182) 1,528 19,312 (10,479) (10,966)
Cash flow from operations 44,433 21,436 (5,628) 2,079 18,774 226,600 369,905 459,822
Capex (11,260) (20,711) (13,245) (16,143) (13,446) (59,235) (122,482) (143,030)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 (612) 0 0 0
Other investing CF items 5 (511) (8) (172) (257) (315) (333) (331)
Cash flow from investing (11,255) (21,222) (13,253) (16,315) (14,315) (59,551) (122,815) (143,360)
Change in debt (71) 2,837 11,117 14,041 (6,102) (2,246) 426 24
Net share issues/(repurchases) 1,261 55 5 11 0 157,437 0 0
Dividends paid (4,000) (11,470) (6,600) 0 0 (4,650) (138,308) (217,175)
Other financing CF items (250) (3,193) (326) (345) (215) 139 202 203
Cash flow from financing (3,060) (11,771) 4,196 13,707 (6,317) 150,679 (137,679) (216,948)
Forex effect/others 323 (3,190) 38 (697) (180) (201) 484 142
Change in cash 30,441 (14,748) (14,647) (1,226) (2,038) 317,528 109,894 99,655
Free cash flow 33,173 724 (18,873) (14,063) 5,328 167,365 247,422 316,792

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 80,700 73,593 58,812 61,903 58,074 310,848 434,828 551,120
Inventory 11,611 23,384 27,634 35,318 27,288 20,578 26,119 34,373
Accounts receivable 11,569 4,359 5,220 4,132 16,558 89,501 139,649 153,390
Other current assets 2,580 4,175 4,844 6,593 6,621 5,891 5,786 5,777
Total current assets 106,460 105,512 96,510 107,946 108,541 426,818 606,382 744,660
Fixed assets 77,914 89,421 86,263 88,677 89,257 130,431 235,153 356,083
Goodwill & intangibles 1,014 767 927 688 531 872 832 792
Other non-current assets 6,034 6,536 8,650 9,396 10,124 8,249 8,249 8,249
Total assets 191,421 202,236 192,351 206,706 208,453 566,369 850,616 1,109,784
Short-term debt 215 361 11,574 21,687 5,517 448 396 351
Accounts payable 15,477 15,818 8,544 11,093 13,503 49,964 73,310 96,476
Other current liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total current liabilities 15,692 16,179 20,118 32,780 19,020 50,412 73,706 96,827
Long-term debt 1,510 4,200 4,104 8,032 18,101 20,924 21,401 21,470
Other non-current liabilities 1,242 898 1,205 841 794 1,142 1,213 1,223
Total liabilities 18,443 21,278 25,427 41,653 37,914 72,477 96,321 119,521
Share capital 30,973 30,981 30,981 30,981 30,981 34,497 34,497 34,497
Reserves/R.E./others 142,005 149,977 135,943 134,072 139,419 459,257 719,661 955,628
Shareholders' equity 172,978 180,958 166,924 165,053 170,400 493,754 754,158 990,125
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 139 138 138 138
Total equity & liabilities 191,421 202,236 192,351 206,706 208,453 566,369 850,616 1,109,784
EV 1,604,075 1,614,018 1,639,917 1,650,867 1,648,732 1,393,712 1,270,158 1,153,890
Net debt/(cash) (78,975) (69,032) (43,134) (32,183) (34,457) (289,477) (413,030) (529,299)
BVPS (TWD) 55.856 58.426 53.881 53.274 54.992 150.791 218.583 286.976

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 40.3 (33.5) (47.5) 14.2 95.1 502.4 56.0 9.8
EBITDA (YoY) 85.6 (38.2) (96.7) 545.8 249.3 1,555.9 60.9 6.4
Operating profit (YoY) 222.3 (59.5) n.a. n.a. n.a. 5,809.8 62.2 5.8
Net profit (YoY) 197.3 (36.0) n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,471.4 57.0 13.3
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 195.0 (36.0) n.a. n.a. n.a. 3,504.2 49.0 13.3
Gross-profit margin 43.3 37.5 n.a. n.a. 22.5 81.4 83.2 79.8
EBITDA margin 49.6 46.1 2.9 16.4 29.3 80.6 83.1 80.6
Operating-profit margin 31.8 19.3 (48.4) (30.9) 7.9 77.3 80.3 77.3
Net profit margin 26.7 25.7 n.a. n.a. 9.9 62.7 63.1 65.1
ROAE 14.0 8.3 n.a. n.a. 3.9 44.9 63.3 51.3
ROAA 12.8 7.4 n.a. n.a. 3.2 64.9 55.7 45.7
ROCE 16.5 6.1 n.a. n.a. 2.7 87.4 77.8 59.5
ROIC 22.6 9.3 n.a. n.a. 3.8 n.a n.a n.a
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 17.7 13.4 30.5 16.3 2.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
Accounts receivable (days) 41.5 51.0 58.5 50.0 56.7 48.3 66.8 77.8
Current ratio (x) 6.8 6.5 4.8 3.3 5.7 8.5 8.2 7.7
Net interest cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 17.5 78.5 n.a. n.a. 70.4 55.0 55.0 60.0
Free cash flow yield 2.0 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.3 9.9 14.7 18.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Nanya manufactures dynamic random access memory (DRAM). Focusing on consumer DRAM market, Nanya had developed its technology through cooperation with other advanced suppliers such as Micron. Recently, as the fourth largest player in the global DRAM market, Nanya plans to apply its own process (1anm, 1bnm) developed to manufacture DRAM, targeting the mobile and server DRAM market. Nanya currently has wafer capacity of c.70k units, of which the 20nm-process accounts for 80% and is centred in Taiwan.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analystcomments
Executive/board quality 2 Nanya is making an effort to ensure the quality of its board by appointing technology and accounting experts. The Board comprises 9 internal and 3 independent directors, 3 of whom are accounting experts and 6 are technology experts. Two of the directors are female and 4 directors are managerial officers of Nanya, including personnel from Nanya Plastic and Formosa.
G Capital management 1 The company plans to increase its capex to TWD16bn for 2025 .
Related party & transaction 1 Nanya has no actual or proposed related-party transaction that exceeds 1% of its revenue. The company commented that the terms and pricing of sales with associates did not significantly differ from its normal selling prices.
S Supplychain management 1 Nanya has multiple material suppliers to reduce its purchasing risk. The number of major suppliers increased to 412 in 2024 from 304 in 2020. Nanya is working with suppliers to construct a resilient and stable supply chain.
E Water&wastewater management 1 Nanya targets to maintain its water recycling ratio at over 95% through a complete water recycling chain. In 2024, it achieved a 97%water recovery ratio (vs. 87% in 2020), thanks to its wastewater processing effort. Nanya has water supply from its backup wells (400m deep) and water tanks. It maintains 143 days of normal production at its plants with 2,000 CMD of well water.
E Waste & hazardous materials management 2 Nanya increased its waste recycling and reuse rate to 99% in 2024 (vs. 89.6% in 2019). The company has conducted on-site audits and assists its suppliers with waste disposal. Also, Nanya reviewed 51 raw material suppliers for RoHS terms, and had a 100% rate of completion in 2024.
E GHGemissions 2 The main sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are purchased electricity, which accounted for c.86% of Nanya's GHG emissions in 2024. Accordingly, Nanya has set a long- term goal of replacing coal-fired electricity with natural gas and implementing a green energy programme by using solar panels to reduce GHG emissions. On 7 October 2022, Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) approved Nanya's GHG emission reduction target, ensuring its emission reduction roadmap is consistent with the Paris Agreement. With 2020 as the base year, Nanya targets a 25% reduction in GHG emissions (scope 1 and scope 2) and a 27% reduction in emissions per unit product (scope 3) by 2030.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 2 Jan 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company