報告_Daiwa_南亞科2408_20260710

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Share price (10 Jul): TWD435.50

12-mth rating: Buy (1)

2Q26 review: Intact solid earnings and positive outlook

SK Kim (82) 2 787 9173 sk.kim@kr.daiwacm.com

Summary: Nanya Technology (Nanya) announced its 2Q26 earnings after market hours on 10 July. Its revenue of TWD82.5bn (+68% QoQ, 684% YoY) and operating profit of TWD60.8bn (+102% QoQ, positive turnaround YoY) were in line with our estimates while outweighing the market consensus by 13% / 16%, respectively. While the DRAM shipment increase remained flat, ASP, which rose > 60%, drove the solid earnings. Management expects the price uptrend to persist through 3Q26, boosting the earnings further. In addition, they mentioned plans to allocate capacity toward DDR3/DDR4, where strong demand persists, to actively respond to customer demand. Though it did not announce a new shareholder return policy, the management expects to sustain a 40% level of dividend payout ratio.

Key highlights

• 2Q26 results review. Nanya's 2Q26 revenue of TWD82.5bn (+68% QoQ, 684% YoY) and operating profit of TWD60.8bn (+102% QoQ, positive turnaround YoY) were in line with our estimates while outweighing the market consensus by 13% / 16%, respectively. Its rapid earnings growth was mainly driven by a sharp increase in ASP. Its DRAM ASP increased by over 60% QoQ in 2Q26, while its shipments remained flat QoQ. The DDR5 portion accounted for over 10% of 2Q26 revenue with a rising trend. Meanwhile, management also mentioned they will allocate capacity to DDR3/DDR4, where constrained supply continues to make the market attractive. Management guided for sustainable earnings growth in 3Q26 led by strong price increases.
• Outlook for 3Q26 and cash management. For 3Q26, management guided for ASP to increase further, sustaining the earnings improvement. While LTA customers' prices will remain stable, management expects the short-term contract ASP to rise more rapidly. Management noted that the 1H26 AI revenue portion accounted for 20% and expects to expand its sales for AI going forward, while also announcing plans to actively respond to non-AI and strong DDR3/DDR4 demand. Its DDR4/LPDDR4 combined portion accounted for c.70%, while DDR3 and DDR5 each held c.10%. For FY2026 capex, Nanya guided for TWD52bn, with wafer equipment accounting for 30%, while guiding to spend USD16bn (c.TWD514bn) for a new 45k/month capacity build-out with the first phase ramp of 30k/month targeted until 2028. Given TWD216.7bn (+151% QoQ) in retained cash by the end of 2Q26, Nanya guided to maintain a 40% level of payout ratio while considering its need for future growth capex.

Recommendation

We have a Buy (1) call on Nanya with a 12M TP of TWD650. We expect the robust 2Q26 earnings and positive earnings outlook to drive positive investor sentiment. Key risk: weaker-than-expected commodity DRAM demand due to delays in data centre build-outs.

10 July 2026

Information Technology: Taiwan

To see our 2Q26 preview flash note on Nanya, please click here

Solid 2Q26 revenue: intact earnings momentum

• 2Q26 revenue exceeds Bloomberg consensus on DRAM price hikes
• Further earnings upside in 2H26E; DDR4 price momentum until 2027E
• Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; raising 12-month TP to TWD 650

Nanya: 2Q26 results overview

Source: Company, Bloomberg

Note: Bloomberg standard consensus as of 10 July 2026

Nanya: revenue and gross/operating margin trend

Source: Company

Nanya: bit shipment growth YoY trend

Source: Company

Nanya: monthly revenue and growth YoY trend

Source: Company

Nanya: annual capex trend

In the interests of timeliness, this document has not been edited.