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Global Unichip (3443 TT)
Share price (5 Oct): TWD8,600.00
12-mth rating: Buy (1)
Unleashed capacity adding to upside risk
Rick Hsu
(886) 2 8758 6261 rick.hsu@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Sam Weng
(886) 2 8758 6255 sam.weng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw Summary: Global Unichip (GUC) reported September revenue which closed its 3Q26 topline 19% above market expectations thanks to its stronger-than-expected turnkey revenue run-rate during the quarter, likely attributable to more capacity support from its key foundry helping GUC meet strong demand from customers for AI projects. We see upside risk to our/consensus 3Q26 bottom-line estimates but are currently comfortable with our 4Q26 forecasts despite the 3Q26 revenue beat likely dwarfing QoQ growth for 4Q26. We have a Buy (1) rating on the counter and will review our model in due course post its quarterly results release.
Highlight
- 3Q26 top-line beating expectations. GUC released September revenue of TWD7.1bn, up 22% MoM (+98% YoY, see chart below), which closed its 3Q26 top-line at TWD18.8bn, up 35% QoQ (+118% YoY) for a new record. 3Q26 revenue beat our and consensus estimates both by 19% each thanks to its turnkey business (ie, massproduction) which contributed TWD16.7bn for 89% of total and beat our estimate by 22%. We attribute the beat to likely its key foundry continuously unleashing extra capacity helping GUC meet the strong customer AI demand during the quarter.
- Quarterly results preview and outlook. We expect GUC to have earned 3Q26 net profit of TWD1.7bn, varying not much from the consensus estimate, yet given the topline beat, we now see upside risk to the market expectations. As for 4Q26, our top-line and bottom-line forecasts are currently 10% and 26% above the consensus, respectively, making us comfortable with our current forecasts since we see the 3Q26 beat being driven by increased foundry capacity allocation for some shipment pull-in, thus dwarfing 4Q26's QoQ growth on intact AI demand. As flagged in our previous note (Upgrading: unleashed capacity adding to growth, 5 August 2026), we continue to expect GUC to be a key beneficiary from the strong AI ASIC ramps, including AI CPU and accelerators.
Recommendation
We rate GUC Buy (1) with a 12M TP of TWD 5,125 on our 4-quarter forward PER target of 63x. The stock performed well recently which we see as largely pricing in the 3Q26 top-line beat, therefore only suggesting investors accumulate only on any technical pullback. Key downside risks are less foundry support and margin execution.
5 October 2026
Information Technology: Taiwan
GUC: monthly revenue run-rates (TWDm)
GUC: 4-quarter forward PER bands
Source: Company
GUC: 3Q26 results preview and 4Q26 business outlook
| TWDm | 3Q26E 4Q26E - Daiwa | 3Q26E 4Q26E - Consensus | 3Q26E 4Q26E - Variance | 3Q26E 4Q26E - Daiwa | 3Q26E 4Q26E - Consensus | 3Q26E 4Q26E - Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15,748 | 15,787 | 0% | 21,971 | 19,991 | 10% |
| Gross profit | 3,324 | 3,268 | 2% | 4,906 | 4,078 | 20% |
| Opex | 1,339 | 1,348 | -1% | 1,516 | 1,455 | 4% |
| Operating profit | 1,986 | 1,920 | 3% | 3,390 | 2,623 | 29% |
| Pretax profit | 2,015 | 1,977 | 2% | 3,416 | 2,695 | 27% |
| Net profit | 1,713 | 1,685 | 2% | 2,904 | 2,301 | 26% |
| Adjusted EPS (TWD) | 12.78 | 12.57 | 2% | 21.67 | 17.17 | 26% |
| Margin | ||||||
| Gross | 21.1% | 20.7% | 0.4% | 22.3% | 20.4% | 1.9% |
| Operating | 12.6% | 12.2% | 0.4% | 15.4% | 13.1% | 2.3% |
| Net | 10.9% | 10.7% | 0.2% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 1.7% |
Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa estimates and forecasts
In the interests of timeliness, this document has not been edited.
Source: Company, TEJ, Daiwa estimates and forecasts