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報告_Daiwa_亞德客1590_20261029

更新 2026-11-02

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檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_亞德客1590_20261029_001.png 27KB 真資料圖 Share price performance:ATIG(左軸 TWD,約 1,000-1,600)與相對 TWSE 指數(右軸 %),Oct-25 至 Oct-26,近期股價約 1,100-1,200、相對指數走弱;股價類圖,不嵌公司頁
報告_Daiwa_亞德客1590_20261029_002.png 34KB 真資料圖 1-year forward PER bands:Share price 與 18x/23x/28x/33x 本益比帶,Oct-18 至 Oct-26,近期股價落在 18x 至 23x 之間;估值圖,不嵌公司頁
報告_Daiwa_亞德客1590_20261029_003.png 42KB 真資料圖 Operating profit YoY 成長(左軸,深藍線,1Q11-1Q28E,含灰色陰影段)與 Airtac 季均股價(右軸,金線);營業利益 YoY 2026 年前三季約 +40-60%、預估 2027 年後遞減;財務/股價類圖,不嵌公司頁

原始內容

原始內容

Airtac International Group (1590 TT)

Target price: TWD1,670.00 (from TWD1,950.00)

Shareprice(29Oct):TWD1,150.00 | Up/downside:+45.2%

3Q26 review: decent outlook ahead

  • Promising demand outlook lasting into 2027
  • Synergies from linear guide on operating profit to bear fruit in 2027
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; lowering 12M TP to TWD1,670

What's new: We update our view after 3Q26 results (released 29 October).

What's the impact: 3Q26 results missed mainly on high tax rate. Net profit came in at TWD2.85bn (EPS: TWD14.23), 5-8% below our estimate (TWD3.1bn) and Bloomberg consensus (TWD3.0bn). Sales (TWD11.5bn; down 5% QoQ but up 40% YoY) were in-line with our estimate and historical seasonality (revenue up 5-10% QoQ); strength came from rising AI-related equipment demand and smartphone. Per management, YoY growth accelerated to 26% in 3Q26 from single digits in 1H26, likely due to new models in 2026 or preparations for next year. GM declined 0.3pp QoQ to 49.4%, likely due to slightly lower sales scale, but was stronger than our prior estimate (48.6%) driven by improving linear-guide gross margin and constant UTR of 100%. OPM declined 1.2pp QoQ to 33.9% due to slightly weaker operating leverage. Lastly, net profit was dragged by a higher tax rate, as Airtac targets a higher payout ratio in 2027, which would incur an additional 10% withholding tax rate on profits remitted from China.

Business outlook. Looking ahead, we expect revenue momentum to be flattish QoQ on solid industrial demand. We also expect gross margin to be flattish QoQ, supported by rising utilisation as Airtac builds inventory ahead of the peak season starting in March next year, as well as improving profitability from its linear guide business. Per management, UTR is currently above 40% and should rise to 50% by end-2026, which would imply GM expanding to 30% (from high-20s% range now). From 2027, we believe the linear guide business is unlikely to remain dilutive to Airtac's OPM. Despite the short lead time in the pneumatic market, Airtac initially expects the market to grow by low-to-mid single digits in 2027, and expects to outgrow the market by 10% with share gains. Also, linear guides, electrical controllers and rising semiconductor-related pneumatic demand should, in our view, provide additional growth for Airtac in 2027. As such, we now expect revenue to grow 20% YoY.

What we recommend: We raise our 2027-28E EPS by 3-5% to reflect our higher revenue and gross margin assumption but lower our 12M TP to TWD1,670 (from TWD1,950), now based on a target PER of 23x (prior: 28x; the high end of its past-3-year range of 18-31x) on our 1-year forward EPS, given earnings growth deceleration ahead and additional risk of cyclical downturn following the 2025-27E upcycle. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call. Downside risk: weaker-than-expected pneumatic demand in China.

How we differ: Our 2027E EPS is 9% higher than the Bloomberg consensus, likely due to our more positive view on the company's OPM.

3

2

1

(unchanged)

Sheng Cheng (886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Thomas Kim (886) 2 8758 6249 thomas.kim@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 1.0 4.2 4.1
Net profit change (2.3) 4.8 2.8
Core EPS (FD) change (2.3) 4.8 2.8

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 875.00-1,595.00
Market cap (USDbn) 7.09
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 34.29
Shares outstanding (m) 200
Major shareholder Ding Kan Invest Ltd. (14.8%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 45,127 54,258 57,260
Operating profit (m) 15,374 19,220 19,455
Net profit (m) 11,685 14,973 15,152
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 58.426 74.867 75.760
EPS change (%) 39.1 28.1 1.2
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (2.0) 8.6 0.1
PER (x) 19.7 15.4 15.2
Dividend yield (%) 2.4 3.3 4.2
DPS 27.3 38.0 48.7
PBR (x) 3.9 3.5 3.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 10.0 9.7
ROE (%) 21.0 24.0 22.0

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Airtac: Daiwa's revenue and earnings forecasts vs. consensus

(TWDm) 2026E - Previous 2026E - New 2026E - Consensus 2027E - Previous 2027E - New 2027E - Consensus 2028E - Previous 2028E - New 2028E - Consensus
Revenue 44,670 45,127 44,196 52,080 54,258 50,052 54,997 57,260 55,065
Diff (%) 1.0% 2.1% 4.2% 8.4% 4.1% 4.0%
Gross Margin (%) 48.6% 49.2% 48.9% 48.8% 49.9% 49.0% 48.4% 48.8% 48.8%
Operating profit 14,966 15,374 15,027 17,859 19,220 17,275 18,494 19,455 18,994
Op Margin (%) 33.5% 34.1% 34.0% 34.3% 35.4% 34.5% 33.6% 34.0% 34.5%
Net profit 11,958 11,685 11,929 14,290 14,973 13,794 14,746 15,152 15,140
EPS (TWD) 59.79 58.43 59.65 71.45 74.87 68.97 73.73 75.76 75.70
Diff (%) -2.3% -2.0% 4.8% 8.6% 2.8% 0.1%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Airtac: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026 2026 2026 2026 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 10,014 12,164 11,512 11,437 12,317 14,475 13,976 13,490 34,330 45,127 54,258 57,260
COGS -5,210 -6,116 -5,830 -5,785 -6,218 -7,171 -6,974 -6,800 -18,548 -22,940 -27,163 -29,322
Gross profit 4,804 6,048 5,683 5,652 6,099 7,305 7,002 6,690 15,782 22,187 27,095 27,939
Operating expenses -1,479 -1,783 -1,778 -1,773 -1,823 -2,070 -2,013 -1,969 -5,494 -6,813 -7,875 -8,484
Operating profit 3,325 4,265 3,905 3,880 4,276 5,235 4,989 4,720 10,288 15,374 19,220 19,455
Non-operating profit 99 -27 54 88 93 92 86 88 358 214 359 346
Pre-tax profit 3,424 4,238 3,959 3,968 4,369 5,327 5,075 4,808 10,645 15,588 19,579 19,801
Income taxes -753 -927 -1,112 -1,111 -917 -1,119 -1,320 -1,250 -2,245 -3,903 -4,606 -4,649
Net profit 2,671 3,311 2,847 2,857 3,451 4,208 3,756 3,558 8,400 11,685 14,973 15,152
Net EPS (TWD) 13.35 16.55 14.23 14.28 17.26 21.04 18.78 17.79 42.00 58.43 74.87 75.76
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 48.0% 49.7% 49.4% 49.4% 49.5% 50.5% 50.1% 49.6% 46.0% 49.2% 49.9% 48.8%
Operating margin 33.2% 35.1% 33.9% 33.9% 34.7% 36.2% 35.7% 35.0% 30.0% 34.1% 35.4% 34.0%
Pre-tax margin 34.2% 34.8% 34.4% 34.7% 35.5% 36.8% 36.3% 35.6% 31.0% 34.5% 36.1% 34.6%
Net margin 26.7% 27.2% 24.7% 25.0% 28.0% 29.1% 26.9% 26.4% 24.5% 25.9% 27.6% 26.5%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 24% 36% 40% 27% 23% 19% 21% 18% 12% 31% 20% 6%
Gross profit 34% 47% 50% 32% 27% 21% 23% 18% 10% 41% 22% 3%
Operating profit 46% 56% 59% 37% 29% 23% 28% 22% 14% 49% 25% 1%
Pre-tax profit 39% 65% 49% 34% 28% 26% 28% 21% 11% 46% 26% 1%
Net profit 38% 63% 36% 23% 29% 27% 32% 25% 10% 39% 28% 1%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 11% 21% -5% -1% 8% 18% -3% -3%
Gross profit 12% 26% -6% -1% 8% 20% -4% -4%
Operating profit 18% 28% -8% -1% 10% 22% -5% -5%
Pre-tax profit 16% 24% -7% 0% 10% 22% -5% -5%
Net profit 15% 24% -14% 0% 21% 22% -11% -5%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Airtac: 3Q26 comparison table

(TWDm) Actual QoQ% YoY% Daiwa Diff % Consensus Diff %
Revenue 11,512 -5% 40% 11,512 0% 11,029 4%
Gross profit 5,683 -6% 50% 5,589 2% 5,425 5%
Gross margin (%) 49.4% 48.6% 49.2%
Operating profit 3,905 -8% 59% 3,897 0% 3,724 5%
Operating margin (%) 33.9% 33.9% 33.8%
Pre-tax profit 3,959 -7% 49% 3,982 -1% 3,805 4%
Net profit 2,847 -14% 36% 3,106 -8% 3,002 -5%
EPS (TWD) 14.23 -14% 36% 15.53 -8% 15.01 -5%

Source: Company data, Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

Airtac: 1-year forward PER bands

Airtac: operating profit YoY growth vs. share price movement

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Source: Company

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
YoY growth of cylinder revenue (%) 32 0 11 6 13 35 22 3
YoY growth of valve revenue (%) 34 (4) 11 7 14 30 20 3
Airtac's market share in China (%) 23 25 26 27 28 30 31 32

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cylinder 13,039 13,081 14,555 15,373 17,434 23,501 28,560 29,413
Valve 6,446 6,212 6,895 7,371 8,379 10,877 13,012 13,409
Other Revenue 5,915 6,780 8,378 7,916 8,517 10,749 12,686 14,439
Total Revenue 25,400 26,073 29,827 30,660 34,330 45,127 54,258 57,260
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (13,063) (14,180) (16,072) (16,346) (18,548) (22,940) (27,163) (29,322)
SG&A (3,556) (3,590) (4,007) (4,221) (4,370) (5,414) (6,414) (6,911)
Other op.expenses (595) (736) (896) (1,040) (1,124) (1,399) (1,460) (1,573)
Operating profit 8,186 7,568 8,852 9,052 10,288 15,374 19,220 19,455
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (88) (51) (58) 36 65 87 90 90
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (2) 198 (102) 328 293 127 269 257
Pre-tax profit 8,097 7,715 8,692 9,416 10,645 15,588 19,579 19,801
Tax (1,943) (1,811) (1,932) (2,010) (2,246) (3,903) (4,606) (4,649)
Min. int./pref. div./others 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 6,154 5,905 6,761 7,406 8,400 11,685 14,973 15,152
Net profit (adjusted) 6,154 5,905 6,761 7,406 8,400 11,685 14,973 15,152
EPS (reported)(TWD) 30.771 29.523 33.803 37.029 42.000 58.426 74.867 75.760
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 30.771 29.523 33.803 37.029 42.000 58.426 74.867 75.760
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 30.771 29.523 33.803 37.029 42.000 58.426 74.867 75.760
DPS (TWD) 9.148 10.148 11.148 17.370 19.550 27.300 37.977 48.663
EBIT 8,186 7,568 8,852 9,052 10,288 15,374 19,220 19,455
EBITDA 9,913 9,728 11,267 11,613 12,866 18,045 22,090 22,564

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 8,097 7,715 8,692 9,416 10,645 15,588 19,579 19,801
Depreciation and amortisation 1,727 2,161 2,414 2,561 2,578 2,672 2,871 3,110
Tax paid (1,943) (1,811) (1,932) (2,010) (2,246) (3,903) (4,606) (4,649)
Change in working capital (1,866) (3,392) (576) 364 (3,819) (3,225) (4,455) (1,691)
Other operational CF items 17 445 243 131 507 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations 6,032 5,118 8,842 10,461 7,667 11,132 13,388 16,570
Capex (5,164) (5,589) (2,447) (2,653) (2,815) (3,159) (3,798) (4,008)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (452) 1,619 (1,096) (1,411) 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items 124 279 (8) 0 0 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (5,492) (3,692) (3,551) (4,064) (2,815) (3,159) (3,798) (4,008)
Change in debt (6,879) 3,214 135 (5,838) (5,341) 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 7,873 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (1,712) (2,676) (2,688) (3,595) (4,002) (5,460) (7,595) (9,733)
Other financing CF items (76) (83) (87) (85) (86) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (794) 455 (2,639) (9,518) (9,429) (5,460) (7,595) (9,733)
Forex effect/others (20) (19) (11) 71 (18) 0 0 0
Change in cash (274) 1,863 2,641 (3,051) (4,594) 2,513 1,995 2,829
Free cash flow 868 (472) 6,395 7,808 4,852 7,973 9,590 12,562

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 6,222 6,608 10,064 8,617 4,085 6,598 8,593 11,422
Inventory 5,302 7,250 6,528 6,803 6,292 8,823 10,447 11,278
Accounts receivable 7,506 9,070 9,920 9,760 14,419 15,892 19,107 20,165
Other current assets 284 326 301 239 251 251 251 251
Total current assets 19,314 23,254 26,814 25,419 25,047 31,564 38,398 43,115
Fixed assets 24,467 28,829 28,560 28,987 28,753 29,240 30,168 31,066
Goodwill & intangibles 52 41 35 31 29 29 29 29
Other non-current assets 3,846 2,475 2,640 3,124 3,711 3,711 3,711 3,711
Total assets 47,679 54,600 58,049 57,561 57,540 64,544 72,306 77,921
Short-term debt 4,493 11,282 11,371 5,611 217 217 217 217
Accounts payable 1,303 1,291 1,118 1,129 1,307 2,085 2,469 2,666
Other current liabilities 3,424 2,361 2,324 2,364 3,106 3,106 3,106 3,106
Total current liabilities 9,219 14,934 14,812 9,103 4,630 5,409 5,793 5,989
Long-term debt 2,806 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current liabilities 502 733 630 558 323 323 323 323
Total liabilities 12,527 15,666 15,452 9,662 4,953 5,732 6,116 6,312
Share capital 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
Reserves/R.E./others 33,144 36,926 40,589 45,893 50,581 56,806 64,184 69,603
Shareholders' equity 35,144 38,926 42,589 47,893 52,581 58,806 66,184 71,603
Minority interests 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
Total equity & liabilities 47,679 54,600 58,049 57,561 57,540 64,544 72,306 77,921
EV 231,084 234,681 231,323 227,001 226,138 223,626 221,631 218,801
Net debt/(cash) 1,076 4,674 1,317 (3,006) (3,868) (6,381) (8,376) (11,205)
BVPS (TWD) 175.720 194.629 212.947 239.463 262.906 294.031 330.920 358.016

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 33.0 2.6 14.4 2.8 12.0 31.5 20.2 5.5
EBITDA (YoY) 31.6 (1.9) 15.8 3.1 10.8 40.3 22.4 2.1
Operating profit (YoY) 36.7 (7.6) 17.0 2.3 13.6 49.4 25.0 1.2
Net profit (YoY) 32.7 (4.1) 14.5 9.5 13.4 39.1 28.1 1.2
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 25.5 (4.1) 14.5 9.5 13.4 39.1 28.1 1.2
Gross-profit margin 48.6 45.6 46.1 46.7 46.0 49.2 49.9 48.8
EBITDA margin 39.0 37.3 37.8 37.9 37.5 40.0 40.7 39.4
Operating-profit margin 32.2 29.0 29.7 29.5 30.0 34.1 35.4 34.0
Net profit margin 24.2 22.6 22.7 24.2 24.5 25.9 27.6 26.5
ROAE 21.4 15.9 16.6 16.4 16.7 21.0 24.0 22.0
ROAA 13.8 11.5 12.0 12.8 14.6 19.1 21.9 20.2
ROCE 20.7 16.3 17.0 16.8 19.4 27.5 30.6 28.1
ROIC 18.5 14.5 15.7 16.0 17.3 22.8 26.7 25.2
Net debt to equity 3.1 12.0 3.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 24.0 23.5 22.2 21.4 21.1 25.0 23.5 23.5
Accounts receivable (days) 104.8 116.0 116.2 117.1 128.5 122.6 117.7 125.2
Current ratio (x) 2.1 1.6 1.8 2.8 5.4 5.8 6.6 7.2
Net interest cover (x) 93.5 149.8 151.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 37.3 33.0 37.8 51.4 52.8 65.0 50.7 64.2
Free cash flow yield 0.4 n.a. 2.8 3.4 2.1 3.5 4.2 5.5

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1988, Airtac is the second-largest manufacturer of pneumatic components in China, with a 20% market share based on sales volume for 2018. Its key products include cylinder, valves, and filters, regulators & lubricators (FRL). The company sells all the products under its own product brand, AirTAC, and also provides after-sales services that include installation, maintenance, etc.

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analystcomments
G Executive/board quality 2 Airtac has 10 directors on its board, with 4 independent directors. All its independent directors have passed the independence requirements set by local governments and experts in the following areas, including business management, the pneumatic industry, and law. We see the diversified background of Airtac's independent directors being positive for the company's governance.
Capital management 3 Between 2021-23, Airtac's dividend payout ratio has been below 50%. The payout ratio was even lower at 33-36% during 2019-20 due to higher capex (especially in 2017 and 2018) to increase Airtac's capacities in both pneumatic products and linear guides. Despite a lower payout ratio than other listed companies, we attribute it to the unique business model of the pneumatic industry as it requires higher working capital than other industries due to its longer cash conversion cycle period. According to Airtac, the payout ratio should slightly increase in 1-2 years due to improving free cash flows and increasing revenue scale. For 2025, Airtac declared a DPS of TWD19.55, for a payout ratio of 53%.
Related party transaction & 1 Sales to related parties accounted for limited 2024 sales, and there were no purchases from related parties. We see limited risk from related-party transactions. Airtac Ningbo has been certified by the Provincial High-tech Enterprise Research and
E lifecycle Productdesign& management 2 Development Center in China, making it the rule setter in the pneumatic components industry. As such, Airtac is currently involved in the formulation and revision of industry and national standards. For future R&D direction, Airtac has adopted the product data management (PDM) system to track data related to product lifecycles, which should increase the speed of development while ensuring product quality, in our view. Green design is another of its R&D targets. Airtac plans to: 1) use environmental-friendly materials that meet RoHS 2.0 regulations, 2) reduce energy consumption by reducing product size, and 3) improve the decomposability of products and reduce the substances in use to facilitate the disposal treatment after the end of product lifecycle.
E GHGemissions 2 In 2022, Airtac invested TWD140.6m in environmental protection. As the greenhouse gas (GHG) created by Airtac during the manufacturing process is mainly from electricity and a small amount of petrochemicals, the emissions are indirect and limited. The types of GHG emissions include CO2, CH4, N2O. The total GHG emissions produced in 2022 were 118.3 thousand tonnes. To reduce the risk of climate change, Airtac aims to reduce its energy consumption per sales unit by 8-15% in 2025 compared with 2021.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 21 Jul 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company