Stock LLM Wiki

報告_Daiwa_亞德客1590_20260721

更新 2026-07-22

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_亞德客1590_20260721_original.pdf

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-07-22)

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Daiwa_亞德客1590_20260721_002.png 41KB 真資料圖 Airtac 1-year-forward PER bands 圖:股價(深藍線)與 18x/23x/28x/33x 本益比帶,2018/07-2026/07
報告_Daiwa_亞德客1590_20260721_003.png 51KB 真資料圖 Airtac operating profit YoY growth(藍柱)vs. quarterly average share price(橘線)雙軸圖,1Q11-1Q28E

001.png(31KB)<40KB 未 Read,預設 logo(Share price performance 區塊小圖)。

原始內容

Taiwan

Airtac International Group (1590 TT)

Target price:

TWD1,950.00 (from TWD1,840.00)

Share price (21 Jul): TWD1,360.00 | Up/downside: +43.4%

2Q26 preview: solid profitability on the cards

  • Solid 2026-30E revenue CAGR outlook on pneumatic share gain and…
  • … new growth drivers, alongside the margin expansion trend
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; lifting 12M TP to TWD1,950

What's new: We provide our preview on Airtac's 2Q26 results.

What's the impact: Though it has taken longer than expected, we believe we are nearing the linear guide (LG) business bearing fruit from 4Q26. After a 6-7 year ramp-up, we estimate CNY250m in revenue from LG in 2Q26 (internal usage: c.CNY75m) and a c.50% utilisation rate. As such, we expect LG's gross margin to gradually expand from the current c.30% to c.40% by 2H28E, and believe this will be a key driver of gross margin expansion over our forecast horizon. On top of this, we estimate Airtac's electrical controller contributed c.CNY400m (c.5% of total sales) in 2025 with a c.60% gross margin. We forecast this to reach CNY500m in 2026E. Longer term, the company targets c.CNY3bn in annual revenue within the next 10 years. For electrical cylinder, we expect this to be introduced by 2028-29. Given the potential market share gains from the pneumatic market (from 30% now to c.35% in the long term) and new growth drivers from LG, electrical controllers and electrical cylinders, we believe Airtac should deliver teens % revenue CAGR over 2026-30E, alongside improving operating margins. While we see a continuing favourable revenue trend at Airtac, we see YoY revenue growth decelerating from 4Q26 given the high base in 4Q25. As such, we expect share-price momentum to recover on revenue growth acceleration in 2Q27E.

2Q26 preview. We now estimate higher 2Q26 sales at TWD12.2bn (up 21% QoQ and 36% YoY), 10% higher than our previous estimate of TWD11.1bn on stronger industrial demand. We estimate the gross margin to rise 1.8pp QoQ to 49.8% (vs. our prior estimate of 48.6%) on higher leverage on lower fixed costs, and the operating margin to only improve 1.1pp QoQ to 34.3% (still the highest level over past 10 years) as the China government implemented stricter policies on social welfare benefits in 2Q26. The additional and unrealised cost in 1Q26 was reflected in 2Q26, which led to a one-off slightly higher opex ratio. We believe the loss from disposal of assets will largely be offset by government subsidies in 2Q26. Hence, we estimate net income of TWD3.3bn (EPS: TWD16.63).

What we recommend: We raise our 2026-28E EPS by 10-14% to reflect our higher gross-margin assumption. We lift our 12-month TP to TWD1,950 (from TWD1,840), now based on a target PER of 28x (prior: 31x; the high end of its past-3-year range of 18-31x), given the likely earnings growth deceleration ahead, on our 1-year forward EPS. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call. Downside risk: worse-than-expected pneumatic demand in China.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 6-14% higher than the consensus, likely due to our more positive view on the company's operating margin.

21 July 2026

5

Daiwa

3

2

1

Buy

Sheng Cheng

(886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Allan Wang (886) 2 8758 6249

allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 7.1 8.9 6.7
Net profit change 10.1 14.3 13.7
Core EPS (FD) change 10.1 14.3 13.7

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

報告_Daiwa_亞德客1590_20260721_001
12-month range 741.00-1,550.00
Market cap (USDbn) 8.43
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 45.48
Shares outstanding (m) 200
Major shareholder Ding Kan Invest Ltd. (14.8%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 44,670 52,080 54,997
Operating profit (m) 14,966 17,859 18,494
Net profit (m) 11,958 14,290 14,746
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 59.788 71.452 73.731
EPS change (%) 42.4 19.5 3.2
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 8.6 13.8 6.1
PER (x) 22.7 19.0 18.4
Dividend yield (%) 2.0 2.9 3.4
DPS 27.3 38.9 46.4
PBR (x) 4.6 4.1 3.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.0 12.7 12.0
ROE (%) 21.4 22.9 21.6

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Airtac: Daiwa's revenue and earnings forecasts vs. consensus

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 41,723 44,670 41,595 47,804 52,080 47,020 51,534 54,997 58,691
Diff (%) 7.1% 7.4% 8.9% 10.8% 6.7% -6.3%
Gross Margin (%) 47.9% 48.6% 48.1% 48.2% 48.8% 48.0% 47.6% 48.4% 48.0%
Operating profit 13,750 14,966 13,591 15,819 17,859 15,499 16,462 18,494 17,486
Op Margin (%) 33.0% 33.5% 32.7% 33.1% 34.3% 33.0% 31.9% 33.6% 29.8%
Net profit 10,864 11,958 11,007 12,504 14,290 12,556 12,969 14,746 13,894
EPS (TWD) 54.32 59.79 55.03 62.52 71.45 62.78 64.85 73.73 69.47
Diff (%) 10.1% 8.6% 14.3% 13.8% 13.7% 6.1%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Airtac: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 10,014 12,164 11,512 10,981 11,818 13,890 13,419 12,953 34,330 44,670 52,080 54,997
COGS -5,210 -6,108 -5,923 -5,705 -6,089 -7,006 -6,863 -6,704 -18,548 -22,946 -26,662 -28,354
Gross profit 4,804 6,056 5,589 5,276 5,730 6,884 6,556 6,249 15,782 21,725 25,418 26,643
Operating expenses -1,479 -1,885 -1,692 -1,702 -1,749 -1,986 -1,932 -1,891 -5,494 -6,758 -7,559 -8,149
Operating profit 3,325 4,170 3,897 3,574 3,981 4,897 4,624 4,358 10,288 14,966 17,859 18,494
Non-operating profit 99 93 85 86 91 89 84 86 358 364 350 343
Pre-tax profit 3,424 4,263 3,982 3,661 4,071 4,986 4,707 4,444 10,645 15,330 18,209 18,838
Income taxes -753 -938 -876 -805 -871 -1,073 -1,014 -961 -2,245 -3,372 -3,919 -4,091
Net profit 2,671 3,325 3,106 2,855 3,200 3,913 3,694 3,484 8,400 11,958 14,290 14,746
Net EPS (TWD) 13.35 16.63 15.53 14.28 16.00 19.56 18.47 17.42 42.00 59.79 71.45 73.73
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 48.0% 49.8% 48.6% 48.1% 48.5% 49.6% 48.9% 48.2% 46.0% 48.6% 48.8% 48.4%
Operating margin 33.2% 34.3% 33.9% 32.6% 33.7% 35.3% 34.5% 33.6% 30.0% 33.5% 34.3% 33.6%
Pre-tax margin 34.2% 35.0% 34.6% 33.3% 34.4% 35.9% 35.1% 34.3% 31.0% 34.3% 35.0% 34.3%
Net margin 26.7% 27.3% 27.0% 26.0% 27.1% 28.2% 27.5% 26.9% 24.5% 26.8% 27.4% 26.8%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 24% 36% 40% 22% 18% 14% 17% 18% 12% 30% 17% 6%
Gross profit 34% 47% 47% 23% 19% 14% 17% 18% 10% 38% 17% 5%
Operating profit 46% 53% 58% 27% 20% 17% 19% 22% 14% 45% 19% 4%
Pre-tax profit 39% 66% 50% 24% 19% 17% 18% 21% 11% 44% 19% 3%
Net profit 38% 63% 48% 23% 20% 18% 19% 22% 10% 42% 20% 3%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 11% 21% -5% -5% 8% 18% -3% -3%
Gross profit 12% 26% -8% -6% 9% 20% -5% -5%
Operating profit 18% 25% -7% -8% 11% 23% -6% -6%
Pre-tax profit 16% 25% -7% -8% 11% 22% -6% -6%
Net profit 15% 25% -7% -8% 12% 22% -6% -6%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Airtac: 1-year-forward PER bands

報告_Daiwa_亞德客1590_20260721_002

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Airtac International Group (1590 TT): 21 July 2026

Daiwa

Airtac: operating profit YoY growth vs. share price movement

報告_Daiwa_亞德客1590_20260721_003

Source: Company

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
YoY growth of cylinder revenue (%) 32 0 11 6 13 33 17 3
YoY growth of valve revenue (%) 34 (4) 11 7 14 28 16 3
Airtac's market share in China (%) 23 25 26 27 28 30 31 32

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cylinder 13,039 13,081 14,555 15,373 17,434 23,202 27,117 27,928
Valve 6,446 6,212 6,895 7,371 8,379 10,766 12,486 12,867
Other Revenue 5,915 6,780 8,378 7,916 8,517 10,702 12,476 14,202
Total Revenue 25,400 26,073 29,827 30,660 34,330 44,670 52,080 54,997
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (13,063) (14,180) (16,072) (16,346) (18,548) (22,946) (26,662) (28,354)
SG&A (3,556) (3,590) (4,007) (4,221) (4,370) (5,471) (6,157) (6,638)
Other op.expenses (595) (736) (896) (1,040) (1,124) (1,287) (1,402) (1,511)
Operating profit 8,186 7,568 8,852 9,052 10,288 14,966 17,859 18,494
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (88) (51) (58) 36 65 64 63 63
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (2) 198 (102) 328 293 300 287 281
Pre-tax profit 8,097 7,715 8,692 9,416 10,645 15,330 18,209 18,838
Tax (1,943) (1,811) (1,932) (2,010) (2,246) (3,372) (3,919) (4,092)
Min. int./pref. div./others 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 6,154 5,905 6,761 7,406 8,400 11,958 14,290 14,746
Net profit (adjusted) 6,154 5,905 6,761 7,406 8,400 11,958 14,290 14,746
EPS (reported)(TWD) 30.771 29.523 33.803 37.029 42.000 59.788 71.452 73.731
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 30.771 29.523 33.803 37.029 42.000 59.788 71.452 73.731
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 30.771 29.523 33.803 37.029 42.000 59.788 71.452 73.731
DPS (TWD) 9.148 10.148 11.148 17.370 19.550 27.300 38.862 46.444
EBIT 8,186 7,568 8,852 9,052 10,288 14,966 17,859 18,494
EBITDA 9,913 9,728 11,267 11,613 12,866 17,638 20,728 21,593

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 8,097 7,715 8,692 9,416 10,645 15,330 18,209 18,838
Depreciation and amortisation 1,727 2,161 2,414 2,561 2,578 2,672 2,869 3,098
Tax paid (1,943) (1,811) (1,932) (2,010) (2,246) (3,372) (3,919) (4,092)
Change in working capital (1,866) (3,392) (576) 364 (3,819) (3,066) (3,701) (1,524)
Other operational CF items 17 445 243 131 507 0 (0) 0
Cash flow from operations 6,032 5,118 8,842 10,461 7,667 11,563 13,458 16,320
Capex (5,164) (5,589) (2,447) (2,653) (2,815) (3,127) (3,646) (3,850)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (452) 1,619 (1,096) (1,411) 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items 124 279 (8) 0 0 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (5,492) (3,692) (3,551) (4,064) (2,815) (3,127) (3,646) (3,850)
Change in debt (6,879) 3,214 135 (5,838) (5,341) 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 7,873 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (1,712) (2,676) (2,688) (3,595) (4,002) (5,460) (7,772) (9,289)
Other financing CF items (76) (83) (87) (85) (86) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (794) 455 (2,639) (9,518) (9,429) (5,460) (7,772) (9,289)
Forex effect/others (20) (19) (11) 71 (18) 0 0 0
Change in cash (274) 1,863 2,641 (3,051) (4,594) 2,976 2,040 3,182
Free cash flow 868 (472) 6,395 7,808 4,852 8,436 9,813 12,470

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Airtac International Group (1590 TT): 21 July 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 6,222 6,608 10,064 8,617 4,085 7,061 9,101 12,283
Inventory 5,302 7,250 6,528 6,803 6,292 8,825 10,255 10,905
Accounts receivable 7,506 9,070 9,920 9,760 14,419 15,731 18,340 19,367
Other current assets 284 326 301 239 251 251 251 251
Total current assets 19,314 23,254 26,814 25,419 25,047 31,869 37,947 42,807
Fixed assets 24,467 28,829 28,560 28,987 28,753 29,208 29,985 30,737
Goodwill & intangibles 52 41 35 31 29 29 29 29
Other non-current assets 3,846 2,475 2,640 3,124 3,711 3,711 3,711 3,711
Total assets 47,679 54,600 58,049 57,561 57,540 64,817 71,672 77,283
Short-term debt 4,493 11,282 11,371 5,611 217 217 217 217
Accounts payable 1,303 1,291 1,118 1,129 1,307 2,086 2,424 2,578
Other current liabilities 3,424 2,361 2,324 2,364 3,106 3,106 3,106 3,106
Total current liabilities 9,219 14,934 14,812 9,103 4,630 5,409 5,747 5,901
Long-term debt 2,806 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current liabilities 502 733 630 558 323 323 323 323
Total liabilities 12,527 15,666 15,452 9,662 4,953 5,732 6,070 6,224
Share capital 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
Reserves/R.E./others 33,144 36,926 40,589 45,893 50,581 57,078 63,596 69,054
Shareholders' equity 35,144 38,926 42,589 47,893 52,581 59,078 65,596 71,054
Minority interests 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
Total equity & liabilities 47,679 54,600 58,049 57,561 57,540 64,817 71,672 77,283
EV 273,084 276,681 273,323 269,001 268,138 265,162 263,122 259,940
Net debt/(cash) 1,076 4,674 1,317 (3,006) (3,868) (6,844) (8,884) (12,066)
BVPS (TWD) 175.720 194.629 212.947 239.463 262.906 295.392 327.981 355.268

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 33 2.6 14.4 2.8 12.0 30.1 16.6 5.6
EBITDA (YoY) 31.6 (1.9) 15.8 3.1 10.8 37.1 17.5 4.2
Operating profit (YoY) 36.7 (7.6) 17 2.3 13.6 45.5 19.3 3.6
Net profit (YoY) 32.7 (4.1) 14.5 9.5 13.4 42.4 19.5 3.2
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 25.5 (4.1) 14.5 9.5 13.4 42.4 19.5 3.2
Gross-profit margin 48.6 45.6 46.1 46.7 46.0 48.6 48.8 48.4
EBITDA margin 39 37.3 37.8 37.9 37.5 39.5 39.8 39.3
Operating-profit margin 32.2 29.0 29.7 29.5 30.0 33.5 34.3 33.6
Net profit margin 24.2 22.6 22.7 24.2 24.5 26.8 27.4 26.8
ROAE 21.4 15.9 16.6 16.4 16.7 21.4 22.9 21.6
ROAA 13.8 11.5 12 12.8 14.6 19.5 20.9 19.8
ROCE 20.7 16.3 17 16.8 19.4 26.7 28.5 27.0
ROIC 18.5 14.5 15.7 16.0 17.3 23.1 25.7 25.0
Net debt to equity 3.1 12.0 3.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 24 23.5 22.2 21.4 21.1 22.0 21.5 21.7
Accounts receivable (days) 104.8 116.0 116.2 117.1 128.5 123.2 119.4 125.1
Current ratio (x) 2.1 1.6 1.8 2.8 5.4 5.9 6.6 7.3
Net interest cover (x) 93.5 149.8 151.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 37.3 33.0 37.8 51.4 52.8 65.0 54.4 63.0
Free cash flow yield 0.3 n.a. 2.4 2.9 1.8 3.1 3.6 4.6

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1988, Airtac is the second-largest manufacturer of pneumatic components in China, with a 20% market share based on sales volume for 2018. Its key products include cylinder, valves, and filters, regulators & lubricators (FRL). The company sells all the products under its own product brand, AirTAC, and also provides after-sales services that include installation, maintenance, etc.

Airtac International Group (1590 TT): 21 July 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
Executive/board quality 2 Airtac has 10 directors on its board, with 4 independent directors. All its independent directors have passed the independence requirements set by local governments and experts in the following areas, including business management, the pneumatic industry, and law. We see the diversified background of Airtac's independent directors being positive for the company's governance.
Capital management 3 Between 2021-23, Airtac's dividend payout ratio has been below 50%. The payout ratio was even lower at 33-36% during 2019-20 due to higher capex (especially in 2017 and 2018) to increase Airtac's capacities in both pneumatic products and linear guides. Despite a lower payout ratio than other listed companies, we attribute it to the unique business model of the pneumatic industry as it requires higher working capital than other industries due to its longer cash conversion cycle period. According to Airtac, the payout ratio should slightly increase in 1-2 years due to improving free cash flows and increasing revenue scale. For 2025, Airtac declared a DPS of TWD19.55, for a payout ratio of 53%.
Related party & transaction 1 Sales to related parties accounted for limited 2024 sales, and there were no purchases from related parties. We see limited risk from related-party transactions. Airtac Ningbo has been certified by the Provincial High-tech Enterprise Research and
Product design & lifecycle management 2 system to track data related to product lifecycles, which should increase the speed of development while ensuring product quality, in our view. Green design is another of its R&D targets. Airtac plans to: 1) use environmental-friendly materials that meet RoHS 2.0 regulations, 2) reduce energy consumption by reducing product size, and 3) improve the decomposability of products and reduce the substances in use to facilitate the disposal treatment after the end of product lifecycle. In 2022, Airtac invested TWD140.6m in environmental protection. As the greenhouse gas (GHG) by Airtac during the manufacturing process is mainly from electricity and a small amount petrochemicals, the emissions are indirect and limited. The types of GHG emissions include CH4, N2O. The total GHG emissions produced in 2022 were 118.3 thousand tonnes. To
GHG emissions 2 created of CO2, reduce the risk of climate change, Airtac aims to reduce its energy consumption per sales unit by 8-15% in 2025 compared with 2021.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 21 Jul 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Airtac International Group (1590 TT): 21 July 2026

Daiwa