PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_聯電2303_3Q26_20261028_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-29）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_Citi_聯電2303_3Q26_20261028_001.png |
14.4KB | 真資料圖 | UMC 股價走勢小圖（2025-10 至 2026-10 近一年），由約 40 元漲至高點約 170 後回落至約 120 |
報告_Citi_聯電2303_3Q26_20261028_002.png |
143.9KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 2 UMC 各製程節點營收（NT$mn，2Q23–3Q26 堆疊柱，22/28nm 為最大塊，3Q26 總額約 74,000）與 Figure 3 各節點營收占比（3Q26 22/28nm 35%、40nm 16%、65nm 19%） |
報告_Citi_聯電2303_3Q26_20261028_003.png |
34.7KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 4 UMC 各應用別營收（NT$mn，2Q23–3Q26，通訊／電腦／消費／其他堆疊，3Q26 約 74,000，通訊最大） |
報告_Citi_聯電2303_3Q26_20261028_004.png |
54.8KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 5 UMC 各應用別營收占比（3Q26 通訊 39%、電腦 13%、消費 32%、其他 16%） |
報告_Citi_聯電2303_3Q26_20261028_005.png |
41.5KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 7 UMC 12 個月 forward P/E 河流圖（2010–2026，倍數線 3.8x／7.4x／11.0x／14.6x／18.2x，股價 2026 年上行至 18.2x 線附近） |
報告_Citi_聯電2303_3Q26_20261028_006.png |
54.3KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 8 UMC 12 個月 forward P/B 河流圖與 ROE 曲線（倍數線 0.5x／1.2x／1.8x／2.5x，ROE 2021 年高點約 28%、2025 年低點後回升至約 22%，股價 2026 年突破 2.5x 線） |
報告_Citi_聯電2303_3Q26_20261028_007.png |
88.8KB | 真資料圖 | Citi Bull/Bear：Bull NT$150（+17%）、Base NT$143（+12%）、Bear NT$100（-22%），附 2025-10 至 2026-10 股價線（28 Oct 26 收 NT$128.00）與三情境虛線預測 |
報告_Citi_聯電2303_3Q26_20261028_008.png |
188.7KB | 真資料圖 | Citi 評等與目標價歷史（Laura Chen）：評等／目標價變動標記 25-Jan-24 *2 TP 52.8 至 29-Jul-26 評等 1 TP 125（30-Apr-26 TP 88、23-Jan-26 TP 75）；下半為 Short-Term View：29-Jul-26 加入、27-Oct-26 移除（股價 122.5） |
原始內容
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽] citi
28 Oct 2026 09:15:42 ET │ 15 pages
UMC (2303.TW)
AI growth and pricing uptrend
CITI'S TAKE
UMC's 2Q26 earnings were below ours and Street's estimates due to nonoperating loss. Yet GM/OPM of 34%/25% were largely in-line with consensus but lower than our estimate with OP of NT$18.6bn (up 25% QoQ, 68% YoY). The company expects low single digit QoQ wafer shipment growth and ASP to remain firm into 4Q26. We keep our Buy rating with TP higher to NT$143 reflecting better UTR and pricing outlook into 2027.
10% blended ASP increase into next year - UMC expects blended ASP to rise about 10% year over year in 2027; The improvement reflects both a firmer pricing environment and a richer mix, with inflation and higher costs also part of customer discussions. Management expects pricing to begin improving in Q1, but higher depreciation and material costs may limit GM expansion. The company expects better profitability for its new business; however, depreciation is expected to grow at a high-single-digit rate or more in 2027, with further increases possible in 2028. Management aims to maintain healthy EBITDA margins and overall profitability. We are looking for steady GM and EBITDA expansion margin trend ahead.
25% revenue contribution coming by 2029 - UMC previously mentioned that its AI-related revenue to reach US$300mn in 2026 and exceed US$1bn within 3 years. The management further elaborates planned monthly capacity of about 18K wafers for silicon photonics, 22K for silicon capacitors and 20K for modulators, with initial installations from late 2028 and planned scale by 2030. Management said expansion is tied to customer commitments and sees AI-related revenue rising from about US$300m in 2026 to roughly 25% of total revenue by 2029; it does not currently believe planned industry capacity will outpace demand. UMC sees potential advantages in combining photonics with TFLN modulators and advanced packaging, and said interest extends beyond early partner, HyperLight.
Maintain Buy on better business recovery and new business engagement - We lower our 2027/2028 EPS estimate by 10%/8% reflecting prolonged weakness in consumer demand and potential new capacity ramp up delay due to supply chain long lead time. Yet we see better visibility for UMC on its better UTR and pricing trends as well as strong AI growth potential in the longer term. We keep our Buy rating with TP NT$143 (18X of our 2027/28 EPS estimate, vs 15x of 2027 previously).
Earnings Summary
| Year to 31 Dec | Net Profit (NT$M) | Diluted EPS (NT$) | EPS growth (%) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 47,211 | 3.80 | -23.0 | 33.7 | 4.3 | 12.8 | 2.2 |
| 2025A | 41,716 | 3.34 | -12.1 | 38.3 | 4.2 | 11.0 | 1.9 |
| 2026E | 93,189 | 7.47 | 123.5 | 17.1 | 3.6 | 22.5 | 4.3 |
| 2027E | 92,329 | 7.40 | -0.9 | 17.3 | 3.4 | 20.1 | 4.3 |
| 2028E | 105,177 | 8.43 | 13.9 | 15.2 | 3.2 | 21.6 | 4.9 |
Source: Powered by dataCentral
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
n Buy
Price (28 Oct 26 13:30)
NT$128.00
Target price NT$143.00↑
from NT$125.00
Expected share price
return
11.7%
Expected dividend yield
4.3%
Expected total return
16.0%
Market Cap NT$1,608,972M
US$49,626M
Price Performance (RIC: 2303.TW, BB: 2303 TT)
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen AC
+886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com
Jack Chen +886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com
Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093
nicholas.lai@citi.com Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽] Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
| Profit & Loss (NT$m) | 2303.TW: Fiscal year end 31-Dec - 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Valuation ratios | Price: NT$128.00; TP: NT$143.00; Market Cap: NT$1,608,972m; Recomm: Buy - 2024 | Price: NT$128.00; TP: NT$143.00; Market Cap: NT$1,608,972m; Recomm: Buy - 2025 | Price: NT$128.00; TP: NT$143.00; Market Cap: NT$1,608,972m; Recomm: Buy - 2026E | Price: NT$128.00; TP: NT$143.00; Market Cap: NT$1,608,972m; Recomm: Buy - 2027E | Price: NT$128.00; TP: NT$143.00; Market Cap: NT$1,608,972m; Recomm: Buy - 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales revenue | 232,303 | 237,553 | 282,963 | 339,934 | 360,694 | PE (x) | 33.7 | 38.3 | 17.1 | 17.3 | 15.2 |
| Cost of sales | -156,649 | -168,647 | -190,603 | -217,149 | -225,914 | PB (x) | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Gross profit | 75,654 | 68,906 | 92,359 | 122,784 | 134,780 | EV/EBITDA (x) | 15.4 | 15.0 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 7.2 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 32.6 | 29.0 | 32.6 | 36.1 | 37.4 | FCF yield (%) | -0.4 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 6.3 |
| EBITDA (Adj) | 97,085 | 100,376 | 123,809 | 168,006 | 191,618 | Dividend yield (%) | 2.2 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.9 |
| EBITDA Margin (Adj) (%) | 41.8 | 42.3 | 43.8 | 49.4 | 53.1 | Payout ratio (%) | 75 | 74 | 74 | 74 | 74 |
| Depreciation | -45,472 | -56,427 | -59,571 | -77,253 | -90,866 | ROE (%) | 12.8 | 11.0 | 22.5 | 20.1 | 21.6 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cashflow (NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| EBIT (Adj) | 51,613 | 43,949 | 64,237 | 90,753 | 100,752 | EBITDA | 97,085 | 100,376 | 123,809 | 168,006 | 191,618 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) | 22.2 | 18.5 | 22.7 | 26.7 | 27.9 | Working capital | -3,721 | 2,160 | -14,021 | -9,036 | -5,112 |
| Net interest | 2,174 | 937 | 1,015 | 1,489 | 1,701 | Other | -14,843 | -9,586 | 68,406 | 7,474 | 8,183 |
| Associates | 501 | 4,953 | 62,311 | 14,091 | 18,994 | Operating cashflow | 78,521 | 92,949 | 178,194 | 166,444 | 194,689 |
| Non-Op/Except/Other Adj | 1,932 | -191 | -24,501 | 1,349 | 1,349 | Capex | -85,408 | -48,764 | -59,275 | -93,408 | -94,361 |
| Pre-tax profit | 56,220 | 49,648 | 103,063 | 107,682 | 122,797 | Net acq/disposals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tax | -9,113 | -8,113 | -10,209 | -16,152 | -18,420 | Other | 1,803 | -1,354 | -76,683 | -8,000 | -6,000 |
| Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. | 105 | 182 | 336 | 800 | 800 | Investing cashflow | -83,605 | -50,117 | -135,959 | -101,408 | -100,361 |
| Reported net profit | 47,211 | 41,716 | 93,189 | 92,329 | 105,177 | Dividends paid | -37,586 | -35,784 | -31,287 | -69,892 | -69,247 |
| Net Margin (%) | 20.3 | 17.6 | 32.9 | 27.2 | 29.2 | Financing cashflow | -22,365 | -36,991 | 6,368 | -61,077 | -61,740 |
| Core NPAT | 47,211 | 41,716 | 93,189 | 92,329 | 105,177 | Net change in cash | -27,449 | 5,841 | 48,603 | 3,959 | 32,589 |
| Per share data | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Free cashflow to s/holders | -6,886 | 44,186 | 118,919 | 73,036 | 100,329 |
| Reported EPS ($) | 3.80 | 3.34 | 7.47 | 7.40 | 8.43 | ||||||
| Core EPS ($) | 3.80 | 3.34 | 7.47 | 7.40 | 8.43 | Rev breakdown by node | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| DPS ($) | 2.85 | 2.49 | 5.56 | 5.51 | 6.27 | 14nm (%) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CFPS ($) | 6.32 | 7.44 | 14.28 | 13.34 | 15.61 | 28nm (%) | 34 | 37 | 36 | 46 | 47 |
| FCFPS ($) | -0.55 | 3.54 | 9.53 | 5.85 | 8.04 | 45nm (%) | 14 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 14 |
| BVPS ($) | 30.11 | 30.18 | 35.57 | 37.36 | 40.21 | 65nm (%) | 16 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 13 |
| Wtd avg ord shares (m) | 12,425 | 12,485 | 12,479 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 90nm (%) | 11 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| Wtd avg diluted shares (m) | 12,425 | 12,485 | 12,479 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 0.11/0.13um (%) | 10 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| Growth rates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 0.15/0.18um (%) | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Sales revenue (%) | 4.4 | 2.3 | 19.1 | 20.1 | 6.1 | 0.25/0.35um (%) | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| EBIT (Adj) (%) | -10.8 | -14.8 | 46.2 | 41.3 | 11.0 | 0.5um (%) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Core NPAT (%) | -22.6 | -11.6 | 123.4 | -0.9 | 13.9 | ||||||
| Core EPS (%) | -23.0 | -12.1 | 123.5 | -0.9 | 13.9 | Rev brkdn by customer | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Balance Sheet (NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Fabless (%) | na | na | na | na | na |
| Cash & cash equiv. | 105,000 | 110,660 | 158,928 | 162,086 | 193,875 | IDM (%) | na | na | na | na | na |
| Accounts receivables | 33,343 | 31,274 | 44,395 | 48,445 | 51,025 | System (%) | na | na | na | na | na |
| Inventory | 35,782 | 37,228 | 43,555 | 47,527 | 50,059 | ||||||
| Net fixed & other tangibles | 308,035 | 298,840 | 300,753 | 316,908 | 320,403 | Rev brkdn by geography | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Goodwill & intangibles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N. America (%) | na | na | na | na | na |
| Financial & other assets | 88,039 | 100,993 | 183,146 | 194,183 | 202,118 | Asia-Pacific (%) | na | na | na | na | na |
| Total assets | 570,201 | 578,996 | 730,777 | 769,150 | 817,480 | Europe (%) | na | na | na | na | na |
| Accounts payable | 7,633 | 9,170 | 14,597 | 13,582 | 13,582 | Japan (%) | na | na | na | na | na |
| Short-term debt | 19,510 | 27,597 | 50,522 | 53,524 | 54,717 | ||||||
| Long-term debt | 55,533 | 45,372 | 50,122 | 55,134 | 60,648 | Analyst items | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Provisions & other liab | 109,339 | 117,002 | 168,142 | 177,077 | 182,770 | Capacity - 8" equi. (K) | 11,305 | 11,617 | 11,810 | 12,031 | 12,031 |
| Total liabilities | 192,016 | 199,141 | 283,382 | 299,317 | 311,718 | Shipment - 8" equi. (K) | 7,617 | 8,618 | 10,362 | 10,768 | 10,768 |
| Shareholders' equity | 378,185 | 379,855 | 447,395 | 469,832 | 505,762 | Utilization rate (%) | 67 | 74 | 88 | 90 | 90 |
| Minority interests | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 Depreciation to Sales (%) | 19 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 23 | |
| Total equity | 378,185 | 379,855 | 447,395 | 469,832 | 505,762 | ASP (US$) | 908 850 | 832 | 968 | 1,028 | |
| Net debt (Adj) | -29,957 | -37,691 | -58,284 | -53,428 | -78,510 | ||||||
| Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) For definitions of the items in this table, | -7.9 please click here. | -9.9 | -13.0 | -11.4 | -15.5 |
Figure 1. UMC - 3Q26 Results Comparison
| (NT$mn) | 3Q26 Actual | 2Q26 Actual | Q/Q | 3Q26 Citi | Diff. | 3Q26 Cons | Diff. | 4Q26 Guidance | Citi Prior Est. | Cons Prior Est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 74,239 | 68,733 | 8% | 76,930 | -3% | 75,067 | -1% | Volume +LSD QoQ; ASP remains firm | 77,976 | 78,261 |
| Gross pro fit | 25,205 | 22,323 | 13% | 26,906 | -6% | 25,991 | -3% | 28,154 | 27,589 | |
| Gross margin | 34.0% | 325% | +1.5 ppt | 35.0% | -1.0 ppt | 34.6% | -0.7ppt | GM flat QoQ | 36.1% | 35.3% |
| Op.profit | 18,643 | 14,950 | 25% | 19,373 | -4% | 18,413 | 1% | 20,586 | 19,933 | |
| OPmargin | 25.1% | 21.8% | +3.4 ppt | 25.2% | -0.1 ppt | 24.5% | +0.6 ppt | 26.4% | 25.5% | |
| Net income | 16,434 | 42,260 | -61% | 18,212 | -10% | 16,997 | -3% | 19,364 | 18,420 | |
| EPS (NT$) | 1.32 | 3.39 | -61% | 1.46 | -10% | 1.35 | -2% | 1.55 | 1.46 |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research, Bloomberg
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research, company data
Figure 5. UMC - sales mix breakdown by application
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Citi Research, company data Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Figure 7. UMC - Forward P/E band
© 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
© 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research, company data Source: Citi Research, company data
Figure 6. UMC - Estimates Revisions
| (NT$mn) | 2026E - New | 2026E - Old | 2026E - Chg. | 2027E - New | 2027E - Old | 2027E - Chg. | 2028E - New | 2028E - Old | 2028E - Chg. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 282,963 | 284,677 | -1% | 339,934 | 345,658 | -2% | 360,694 | 367,980 | -2% |
| YoY growth | 19% | 20% | 20% | 21% | 6% | 6% | |||
| Gross profit | 92,359 | 95,201 | -3% | 122,784 | 135,860 | -10% | 134,780 | 146,778 | -8% |
| Opex | 28,122 | 29,016 | -3% | 32,031 | 32,659 | -2% | 34,027 | 34,805 | -2% |
| Operating profit | 64,237 | 66,185 | -3% | 90,753 | 103,201 | -12% | 100,752 | 111,973 | -10% |
| Pre-tax profit | 103,063 | 105,567 | -2% | 107,682 | 120,416 | -11% | 122,797 | 134,462 | -9% |
| Net income | 93,189 | 96,008 | -3% | 92,329 | 103,153 | -10% | 105,177 | 115,092 | -9% |
| EPS (NT$) | 7.47 | 7.69 | -3% | 7.40 | 8.26 | -10% | 8.43 | 9.21 | -8% |
| Gross margin | 32.6% | 33.4% | -0.8 ppt | 36.1% | 39.3% | -3.2 ppt | 37.4% | 39.9% | -2.5 ppt |
| Opex ratio | 9.9% | 10.2% | -0.3 ppt | 9.4% | 9.4% | -0.0 ppt | 9.4% | 9.5% | -0.0 ppt |
| Operating margin | 22.7% | 23.2% | -0.5 ppt | 26.7% | 29.9% | -3.2 ppt | 27.9% | 30.4% | -2.5 ppt |
| Net margin | 32.9% | 33.7% | -0.8 ppt | 27.2% | 29.8% | -2.7 ppt | 29.2% | 31.3% | -2.1 ppt |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Figure 9. UMC - Forecast Summary
| NT$bn | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 2025 - 4Q | 2025 - 1Q | 2025 - 2026 2Q | 2025 - 3Q | 2027 - 4QE | 2027 - 1QE | 2027 - 2QE | 2027 - 3QE | 4QE | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 57.9 | 58.8 | 59.1 | 61.8 | 61.0 | 68.7 | 74.2 | 79.0 | 80.8 | 84.8 | 88.2 | 86.2 | 237.6 | 283.0 | 339.9 | 360.7 |
| COGS | -42.4 | -41.9 | -41.5 | -42.9 | -43.2 | -46.4 | -49.0 | -51.9 | -51.9 | -54.3 | -55.9 | -55.1 | -168.6 | -190.6 | -217.1 | -225.9 |
| Gross Profit | 15.4 | 16.9 | 17.6 | 19.0 | 17.8 | 22.3 | 25.2 | 27.0 | 28.9 | 30.5 | 32.3 | 31.1 | 68.9 | 92.4 | 122.8 | 134.8 |
| Operating Expense | -5.7 | -6.1 | -6.5 | -6.7 | -6.5 | -7.4 | -6.6 | -7.6 | -7.8 | -8.1 | -8.1 | -8.0 | -25.0 | -28.1 | -32.0 | -34.0 |
| SG&A expenses | -2.2 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.5 | -3.2 | -2.7 | -3.2 | -3.3 | -3.3 | -3.2 | -3.4 | -9.2 | -11.7 | -13.2 | -14.1 |
| R&D expenses | -4.0 | -4.2 | -4.6 | -4.9 | -4.6 | -4.7 | -4.5 | -5.0 | -5.1 | -5.4 | -5.6 | -5.3 | -17.7 | -18.9 | -21.5 | -22.9 |
| EBIT | 9.8 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 11.3 | 14.9 | 18.6 | 19.4 | 21.1 | 22.4 | 24.2 | 23.0 | 43.9 | 64.2 | 90.8 | 100.8 |
| Net Interest Income | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | -3.6 | -3.8 | -5.3 | -5.8 |
| Net Other Income | -0.7 | -1.0 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 30.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 9.3 | 42.7 | 22.2 | 27.8 |
| Pre Tax Profit | 9.3 | 10.2 | 14.6 | 15.5 | 16.6 | 45.2 | 19.9 | 21.3 | 23.4 | 27.1 | 29.9 | 27.4 | 49.6 | 103.1 | 107.7 | 122.8 |
| Tax Expense/(Credit) | 1.6 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.1 | -8.1 | -10.2 | -16.2 | -18.4 |
| Net Profit | 7.8 | 8.9 | 15.0 | 10.1 | 16.2 | 42.3 | 16.4 | 18.3 | 20.1 | 23.2 | 25.6 | 23.5 | 41.7 | 93.2 | 92.3 | 105.2 |
| EPS (NT$) | 0.62 | 0.1 | 1.20 | 0.81 | 1.29 | 3.39 | 1.32 | 1.47 | 1.61 | 1.86 | 2.05 | 1.88 | 3.34 | 7.47 | 7.40 | 8.43 |
| Margins (%) | ||||||||||||||||
| Gross Margin | 26.7 | 28.7 | 29.8 | 30.7 | 29.2 | 32.5 | 34.0 | 34.2 | 35.8 | 36.0 | 36.7 | 36.1 | 29.0 | 32.6 | 36.1 | 37.4 |
| Operating Margin | 16.9 | 18.4 | 18.8 | 19.8 | 18.5 | 21.8 | 25.1 | 24.5 | 26.1 | 26.5 | 27.4 | 26.7 | 18.5 | 22.7 | 26.7 | 27.9 |
| Net Margin | 13.4 | 15.2 | 25.3 | 16.3 | 26.5 | 61.5 | 22.1 | 23.2 | 24.8 | 27.4 | 29.0 | 27.2 | 17.6 | 32.9 | 27.2 | 29.2 |
| Sequential Growth (%) | ||||||||||||||||
| Volume (000s) | 2 | 11 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 3 | -5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 20 | 4 | 0 |
| Revenue | -4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 19 | 20 | 6 |
| Gross Profit | -16 | 9 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 25 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | -4 | -9 | 34 | 33 | 10 |
| EBIT | -18 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 8- | 33 | 25 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -5 | -15 | 46 | 41 | 11 |
| Net Profit | -8 | 14 | 68 | -33 | 61 | 161 | -61 | 11| | 10 | 16 | 10 | -8 | -12 | 123 | -1 | 14 |
© 2025 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research, company data Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Bull/Bear: UMC (2303.TW)
Current Price and expected returns (upside/downside) as of 28 Oct 2026
BULLAssumptions
- Higher-than-expected margin outlook
- Better-than-expected consumer electronic demand
BASE Assumptions
- . Gradual UTR recovery
- Solid 28/22nm demand outlook
BEAR Assumptions
- Lower-than-expected margin outlook
- Weaker-than-expected consumer electronic demand
Spread 39pp Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
UMC
Company description
United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) is a leading global semiconductor foundry company. It provides high-quality IC fabrication services, focusing on logic and various specialty technologies to serve all major sectors of the electronics industry. UMC's comprehensive IC processing technologies and manufacturing solutions include Logic/Mixed-Signal, embedded HighVoltage, embedded Non-Volatile-Memory, RFSOI, and BCD. Most of UMC's 12-inch and 8-inch fabs with core R&D are located in Taiwan.
Investment strategy
We rate UMC shares a Buy. Overall inventory levels in PC, smartphone, and consumer electronics are currently healthy, and we see limited inventory correction downside. While macro uncertainties may linger, we believe UMC's niche technology offerings will help it outperform its trailing-edge foundry peers. We also expect transfer orders from TSMC and the AI-on-device trend to drive stronger demand, and see better UTR recovery for UMC going forward.
Valuation
Our target price for UMC of NT$125 is based on 18x 2027/28E EPS, which is higher than the midpoint of its 3-year forward PE. We believe our target multiple is justified by our belief that UMC should benefit from the robust demand in 22/28nm, TSMC's increasing order outflow opportunity, long-term opportunity in advanced packaging and photonics and that its niche technology offerings should help it outperform its trailing-edge foundry peers. Our target price equates to 2027E/28E PB of 3.8x/3.6x.
Risks
Key downside risks to our target price include: 1) a longer-than-expected demand recovery; 2) more competition from peers in 28nm; 3) worse-thanexpected developments from the company's China investment; 4) a significant decline in smartphone end-demand; 5) poor contribution from Novatek's iPhone OLED business; and 6) fiercer ASP competition from Chinese peers.
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