PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_旺矽6223_20260814_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-17）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
260814_citi_mpi_001.png |
150KB | 真資料圖 | 上下兩張股價走勢圖：上圖「Ratings and Target Price History」標示三次評等/目標價變動節點（2026-01-09 TP2,800、2026-03-11 TP4,100、2026-05-13 TP7,200，收盤價分別2,230/3,285/5,720）；下圖「Short-Term View/Catalyst Watch Research」標示 Catalyst Watch 增減兩個節點 |
原始內容
citivelocity.com
14 Aug 2026 06:42:26 ET │ 10 pages
MPI (6223.TWO)
Milder QoQ growth into 2H; 2027 positive outlook unchanged
CITI'S TAKE
MPI delivered a strong 2Q26, with net profit NT$1.5bn (up 24% QoQ, 142% YoY) with GM/OPM at 58.4% and 34.4%, beating both ours and the Street's estimates. Management guides 3Q revenue +0-5% QoQ and another +5-10% in 4Q26, and 2027 YoY growth momentum to be no less than 2026 . The key drivers are continued ramp-up at existing AI ASIC customers, incremental contributions from new AI/non-AI ASIC and CPU customers, further MEMS capacity expansion, and potential upside from CPO and microbump probe-card technology. Maintain Buy/High Risk.
- Capacity expansion continues into next year - MPI's capacity targets of VPC 2m and MEMS 3.5m by the end of this year unchanged, while 2027 MEMS expansion is expected to be at least another 2.5m, depending on customer demand. Management will provide a broader 2027-28 expansion plan around year-end. While 3Q revenue growth seems to be milder at LSD growth, GM is expect to recover. Current visibility into 4Q and 2027 remains positive, supported by a rising MEMS mix, full utilization, pricing adjustments and greater vertical integration.
- CPO & Microbump - Two Potential New Growth Engines from 2027 onward CPO INS2 remains under customer qualification, with clearer results expected around 3Q/4Q26, while INS3 engineering systems begin shipments in 4Q26 to 4-5 international customers across foundry, OSAT and fabless segments; meaningful production orders could emerge in 1H27. Separately, MPI is pushing into microbump probe-card testing, which could become an important competitive inflection point. The first singlecustomer project could begin production in 4Q26. With 2nm becoming mainstream for AI ASIC into 2H27 and 2028, we would expect that would further widen technology differentiation and increasing technology difficulty and ASP.
- 2027 Visibility Broadening Beyond AI ASIC Management sees both existing customers continuing to ramp and new customer programs progressing, including non-AI ASIC wins and additional CPU opportunities beyond the current program. AI ASIC companies and a U.S. design-service company are already among MPI's top-five customers. Importantly, testing complexity is structurally increasing demand: AI/HPC probe cards are moving toward 30k+ pins in 2027, networking toward 20-30k, while future customer roadmaps point to 50-60k pins. Shorter product cycles and longer test times also require more parallel testers-and therefore more probe cards-providing a volume multiplier beyond semiconductor unit growth alone.
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations
Flash |
| Buy/HighRisk | |
|---|---|
| Price (14Aug2615:00) | NT$6,440.00 |
| Target price | NT$7,200.00 |
| Expected share price return | 11.8% |
| Expected dividend yield | 0.3% |
| Expected total return | 12.1% |
| MarketCap | NT$631,000M |
| US$19,632M |
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen AC
+886-2-8726-9090
laura.cy.chen@citi.com
Jack Chen +886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com
Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093 nicholas.lai@citi.com
MPI
Valuation
Our target price for MPI is set at NT$7,200 based on our target PE multiple of 50x to our 2027-28E EPS average. We believe our PER, at the high-end of its 3-year forward PER range, is justified given MPI's earnings power remains structurally higher than that in the previous cycles. We expect MPI to see an accelerating earnings growth ahead supported by its sustainable sales growth and improving mix. At our target price, the shares would trade at a 2027/28E P/B of 23x/15x.
Risks
Our quant risk rating system rates the MPI stock as High Risk for its share-price volatility. Key downside risks that could prevent MPI shares from reaching our target price include 1) Slowdown in AI ASIC demand; 2) Slower than expected adoption of MEMS probe cards; 3) intensifying competition from global and regional peers; 4) Slow development in CPO equipment business.
MPI (6223.TWO)
Analyst: Laura (Chia Yi) Chen
TWD
7,500
5,000
2,500
If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788
Date
Appendix A-1
*Indicates Change