PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_國巨2327_20260723_original.pdf
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251KB | 真資料圖 | 上下兩張並排圖表：上圖「Ratings and Target Price History」股價走勢圖（2024-2026）疊加 12 個評等/目標價變動標記點，下方表格列 12 筆日期/評等/目標價/收盤價紀錄，最新第 12 筆為目標價 NT$1,500、收盤價 NT$751；下圖「Short-Term View/Catalyst Watch Research」股價走勢圖疊加 14 個 STV/CW 事件標記，下方表格列各筆日期/動作/預期方向/期間/收盤價，最新第 14 筆為 14-Jul-26 Add STV |
報告_Citi_國巨2327_20260723_001.png |
132KB | 真資料圖 | Bull/Base/Bear 情境圖：頂部三欄數字 NT$2,000.00（+187% Upside，藍牛）／NT$1,500.00（+116% Upside，灰色靶心）／NT$600.00（-14% Downside，紅熊）；下方股價走勢圖（Jul25-Jul27）標示 23 Jul 26 收盤 NT$696.00，並以三條虛線分別延伸至三個情境目標價；底部列出 BULL/BASE/BEAR 各自假設：Bull Target multiple 45x；Base OPM 26.7% in 2026E + Target multiple 40x；Bear OPM 20.0% in 2026E + Target multiple 25x |
原始內容
citivelocity.com
23 Jul 2026 10:52:17 ET │ 13 pages
Yageo (2327.TW)
Ahead of Jul 29 Earnings: 2Q26 Beat Likely; Broad-Based Jul Price Hike the Key Forward Variable
CITI'S TAKE
Ahead of Yageo's Jul 29 earnings call, we see a solid setup across both near- and medium-term timeframes. 2Q26 revenue has already surpassed mgmt.'s "moderate growth" guidance, with additional earnings upside likely from margin expansion. Moreover, Yageo's broad-based capacitor price hike in early Jul begins flowing through 3Q26 ASPs, supporting a positive margin step-up. The recent share c.39% price correction, against TAIEX's down c.5%, reflects technical selling pressure with no fundamental deterioration. At 22x 2027E PE vs. global peer average of c.32x, the stock offers an attractive re-entry point. We maintain our estimates, TP of NT$1,500, and Buy rating.
2Q26: Earnings upside from margins, not just revenue - Yageo's 2Q revenues of NT$44.5bn (+16% QoQ/+36% YoY) has already surpassed mgmt.'s "moderate growth" guidance issued on 1Q26 earnings call, driven by broad-based demand across both standard and specialty products. We believe the additional earnings upside in 2Q26 will come from margins rather than the revenue line alone. We previously estimated 2Q26E GPM at 38.5% (+0.4ppt QoQ) and OPM at 25.5% (+0.3ppt QoQ), but expect further upside to reflect the lagged flow-through of pricing adjustments and better operating leverage at higher UTR levels. We also believe the effects of pricing adjustments will gradually be reflected in margins in future quarters.
3Q26E: Price hike begins flowing through - Per local media, Yageo has initiated a broad-based capacitor price hike effective Jul 1, covering MLCC, tantalum, aluminum capacitors, representing approximately 50% of total revenues. Our channel checks also indicate ASP increases of 15-25% compared to Jun levels. We expect the adjustments to begin materializing in 3Q26 ASPs, supporting potential GPM expansion beyond our current estimates. Key topics we expect mgmt. to address during the earnings call include: 3Q26 revenue/margin guidance, BB ratio and UTR trajectory, capacity expansion schedule and thresholds, AI revenue mix evolution, channel inventory health, future pricing strategy and sustainability of non-AI & consumer demand.
Fundamental thesis intact - Yageo's shares have corrected c.39% in Jul, underperforming TAIEX's down c.5% over the same period. We believe the recent selloff reflects a series of non-fundamental factors: crowded position unwinds across Asia passive component names, forced deleveraging from Korean ETF liquidations, rather than any deterioration in Yageo's fundamental earnings
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Flash |
Buy
Price (23 Jul 26 13:30)
NT$696.00 NT$1,500.00
Target price
Expected share price return
115.5%
Expected dividend yield
0.9% 116.4% NT$1,441,740M US$44,498M
Expected total return Market Cap
Michael Hung AC
+886-2-8726-9092 michael.hung@citi.com
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com
Figure 1. Passive components peer valuation (pricing as or close <s Jul)
Company
Taiwan
Yageo
Lelon
Holy Stone
Nichidenbo Corp
Taiwan Average
Japan
TDK
Murata
Kyocera
Japan Average
Taiyo Yuden
P/BV (x)
2026
2027
7.3
5.5
3.0
11.1
2.5
6.0
3.3
7.7
2.8
4.8
P/E(x)
2026
2027
39.1
24.0
19.3
51.5
33.5
22.1
17.4
18.3
14.3
18.0
Ticker
- TW
trajectory. At current levels, Yageo's shares are traded at c.22x of our 2027E EPS, still a discount to the global passive component peer average of c.32x. We expect the Jul 29 earnings call, followed by Jul monthly revenue, represents the first window for momentum to resume. We maintain our earnings forecasts, valuation, and TP of NT$1,500. Reiterate Buy.
Korea
Samwha Capacitor
SEMCO
Korea Average
US
Littlefuse
Vishay
US Average
China
China Average
Chaozhou Three-circle
Average
€ 2M06 Citicenun Ine Mo eadictribution without Citieroun'e written normiccion
3.2
2.9
73,207
635
68.3
43.9
29.3
124.5%
68.3%
49.6%
001820.KR
1
NR
KRW
KRW
3,000,000.0 1,448,000.0
NA
90,200.0
Figure 1. Passive components peer valuation (pricing as of close 23 Jul)
VSH.US
LFUS.US
300408.CN
| USD | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR | NA | 39.9 | 6,117 | 53.0 | 25.9 1606.0% | 104.5% | 2.8 | 2.7 | 5.1% | 11.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| NR USD | NA | 416.4 | 10,522 | 28.2 40.6 | 24.1 38.3% 25.0 | 17.0% | 3.8 | 3.4 | 14.0% | 14.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 2.8 | 2.7 | |||||||||||
| NR CNY | NA | 105.6 | 29,867 | 43.9% | 25.3% | 8.2 | 7.1 | 15.7% | 17.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 53.5 53.5 | 42.7 | 8.2 | 7.1 | |||||||||
| 48.6 | 31.8 | 5.5 | 4.7 |
Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, dataCentral, Citi Research
009150.KR
32.1
112.7%
10.9
8.2
16.2%
29.1%
0.2%
0.2%
Rating LC Target Price
7/23/2026
TWD
TWD
TWD
TWD
1,500.0
NA
NA
NA
Price
7/23/2026
696.0
697.0
276.0
171.5
Market cap
(USSmn)
44,498
1,403
3,569
1,522
EPS growth (%)
2026
54.7%
NA
NA
NA
2027
76.5%
38.3%
181.5%
34.9%
Prepared for Kevin Lu
NR
ROE(%)
2027
2026
20.0%
28.3%
12.7%
16.8%
12.7%
19.0%
33.9%
19.4%
7.5%
10.2%
Div yield (%)
2026
0.9%
1.5%
1.6%
5.9%
2027
1.3%
1.9%
2.9%
8.1%
0.6%
0.6%
NT$
2,004
1,670
1,336
1,002
668
334
Jul 25
• Target mulitple at 45x
• OPM at 26.7% in 2026E
• Target mulitple at 40x iS • OPM at 20.0% in 2026E
• Target mulitple at 25x
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Bull/Bear: Yageo
NT$ 600.00
v14% Downside
• NT$2,000.00
NT$ 1,500.00
• 116% Upside
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Yageo
Valuation
We set our target price at NT$1,500, based on 40x average 2027E-28E earnings. We value Yageo based on PE as we believe the company's earnings performance and industry dynamics would be the key focuses of the market. Our target multiple of 40x is at the higher end of the trading range since 2022. During this period the company has gone through the cycles, successfully integrated the acquired business to enhance its product offerings, and started to deliver stable margins and earnings.
Risks
Key downside risks to our target price and rating include: 1) slower-than-expected demand recovery; 2) intensified peer and pricing competition; 3) execution risks associated with M&A integration and synergies; and 4) FX and interest rate fluctuations.
Yageo (2327.TW)
Analyst: Michael Hung
TWD
1,000
500
If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788
Date
Appendix A-1
2/29-Feb-2411:30:38
1
*155.88
116.75
.29-0c1-2414:57:08