PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_信驊5274_20260909_original.pdf
原始內容
(RIC: 52(4.1WO, BB: 52(4 11)
TWD
17,500
15,000
12,500
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
09 Sep 2026 11:32:52 ET │ 14 pages
Sep
Dec
Mar
Jun
Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO)
Rising TAM, Price Hike and Less Supply Constraint; Raise TP to NT$25,000
CITI'S TAKE
At Citi's Global TMT Conference, mgmt. guided 4Q26E revenue to NT$6.66.8bn, above current cons and implying 40% QoQ growth based on current estimates, driven by easing substrate/OSAT constraints and a portfoliowide price increase from Dec, while targeting ~70% GPM. Backlog now also extends into mid-2027. Beyond the near term, we see the growth narrative shifting from server volume expansion to higher ASP, CSP share gains and rising BMC content, with agentic AI and non-compute devices further expanding the TAM. We raise our 2026E-28E earnings by 17-48% and lift our TP to NT$25,000, still based on 50x 2028E EPS. Reiterate Buy.
4Q26 guidance points to a growth inflection -Mgmt. guided 4Q26E revenue of NT$6.6-6.8bn, implying ~40% QoQ growth on cons and well above expectations. The step-up should be primarily driven by stronger substrate and OSAT supply after constraint in past quarters, with a second OSAT qualification set to ease bottlenecks. Aspeed also plans a portfolio-wide price increase from Dec to pass through higher upstream costs, with GPM targeting nearly 70%. Demand remains strong, with backlog extending into mid-2027. We expect the full-quarter pricing benefit to carry into 1Q27, providing continued momentum.
Agentic AI and non-compute demand expand BMC TAM -Aspeed continues to gain BMC share at major CSPs, with Google shifting newer projects toward Aspeed and renewed engagement with Microsoft. Moreover, mgmt. believes agentic AI could materially lift general-purpose CPU server demand, as persistent agents require CPU infra for execution, storage and orchestration. The GPU-to-CPU ratio could evolve from ~1:1 toward 1:2 or higher. Mgmt. also estimates 15-20% of BMC demand could come from non-compute devices, suggesting prior TAM underestimated AI rack content. AST2700 migration (ASP >50% vs. AST2600) and new products such as AST1840 add further upside potential.
Implications -We raise our 2026E/27E/28E earnings forecasts by 17%/48%/23% to reflect the updated guidance and stronger 2027 outlook. Our revised TP of NT$25,000 is still based on 50x 2028E EPS, which we believe is justified by Aspeed's BMC market leadership and solid multi-year earnings growth. We reiterate our Buy rating and expect the shares to react positively to the positive guidance.
Earnings Summary
| Year to 31Dec | Net Profit (NT$M) | DilutedEPS (NT$) | EPSgrowth (%) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 2,571 | 61.86 | 155.2 | na | 137.2 | 54.3 | 0.3 |
| 2025A | 3,928 | 94.48 | 52.7 | 196.9 | 102.2 | 59.5 | 0.4 |
| 2026E | 8,482 | 203.97 | 115.9 | 91.2 | 59 | 82 | 0.9 |
| 2027E | 15,936 | 383.23 | 87.9 | 48.5 | 35.3 | 91 | 1.7 |
| 2028E | 20,893 | 502.45 | 31.1 | 37.0 | 26.3 | 81.4 | 2.3 |
Source: Powered by dataCentral
n Buy
Price (09 Sep 26 15:00)
NT$18,605.00
Target price
NT$25,000.00↑
from NT$20,455.00
Expected share price return
34.4%
Expected dividend yield
0.4%
Expected total return
34.8%
Market Cap
NT$773,651M US$24,544M
Price Performance (RIC: 5274.TWO, BB: 5274 TT)
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen AC
+886-2-8726-9090
laura.cy.chen@citi.com
Michael Hung +886-2-8726-9092 michael.hung@citi.com
Jack Chen +886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com
Nicholas Lai
+886-2-8726-9093
nicholas.lai@citi.com
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
| 5274.TWO: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | Price: NT$18,605.00; TP: | NT$25,000.00; Market Cap: NT$773,651m; Recomm:Buy | NT$25,000.00; Market Cap: NT$773,651m; Recomm:Buy | NT$25,000.00; Market Cap: NT$773,651m; Recomm:Buy | NT$25,000.00; Market Cap: NT$773,651m; Recomm:Buy | NT$25,000.00; Market Cap: NT$773,651m; Recomm:Buy | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit&Loss(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Valuation ratios | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Sales revenue | 6,460 | 9,085 | 18,388 | 33,777 | 43,425 | PE(x) | na | na | 91.2 | 48.5 | 37.0 |
| Cost of sales | -2,306 | -2,906 | -5,557 | -10,211 | -13,021 | PB(x) | na | na | 59.0 | 35.3 | 26.3 |
| Gross profit | 4,154 | 6,179 | 12,831 | 23,566 | 30,405 | EV/EBITDA(x) | na | na | 72.1 | 37.7 | 28.6 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 64.3 | 68.0 | 69.8 | 69.8 | 70.0 | FCFyield (%) | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| EBITDA(Adj) | 3,174 | 4,984 | 10,553 | 19,904 | 25,924 | Dividend yield (%) | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| EBITDAMargin(Adj) (%) | 49.1 | 54.9 | 57.4 | 58.9 | 59.7 | Payout ratio (%) | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 |
| Depreciation | -256 | -324 | -419 | -426 | -426 | ROE(%) | 54.3 | 59.5 | 82.0 | 91.0 | 81.4 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cashflow(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| EBIT (Adj) | 2,918 | 4,660 | 10,134 | 19,477 | 25,497 | EBITDA | 3,174 | 4,984 | 10,553 | 19,904 | 25,924 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) | 45.2 | 51.3 | 55.1 | 57.7 | 58.7 | Working capital | 335 | 278 | 3,853 | 2,602 | 837 |
| Net interest | 69 | 143 | 118 | 159 | 251 | Other | -365 | -766 | -1,649 | -3,538 | -4,601 |
| Associates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Operating cashflow | 3,145 | 4,496 | 12,756 | 18,968 | 22,160 |
| Non-Op/Except/Other Adj | 180 | 52 | 317 | 288 | 373 | Capex | -25 | -274 | -624 | -485 | -485 |
| Pre-tax profit | 3,167 | 4,855 | 10,569 | 19,924 | 26,121 | Net acq/disposals | -321 | -121 | 92 | 0 | 0 |
| Tax | -596 | -928 | -2,085 | -3,985 | -5,224 | Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. | 0 | 0 | -3 | -4 | -4 | Investing cashflow | -345 | -395 | -533 | -485 | -485 |
| Reported net profit | 2,571 | 3,928 | 8,482 | 15,936 | 20,893 | Dividends paid | -756 | -1,967 | -3,303 | -7,130 | -13,397 |
| Net Margin (%) | 39.8 | 43.2 | 46.1 | 47.2 | 48.1 | Financing cashflow | -781 | -1,991 | -2,929 | -7,134 | -13,400 |
| CoreNPAT | 2,571 | 3,928 | 8,482 | 15,936 | 20,893 | Net change in cash | 2,048 | 2,129 | 9,295 | 11,349 | 8,274 |
| Per share data | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Free cashflow to s/holders | 3,120 | 4,222 | 12,132 | 18,483 | 21,675 |
| Reported EPS($) | 61.86 | 94.48 | 203.97 | 383.23 | 502.45 | ||||||
| Core EPS($) | 61.86 | 94.48 | 203.97 | 383.23 | 502.45 | ||||||
| DPS($) | 52.00 | 79.42 | 171.47 | 322.17 | 422.39 | ||||||
| CFPS($) | 75.65 | 108.14 | 306.77 | 456.14 | 532.90 | ||||||
| FCFPS($) | 75.05 | 101.55 | 291.76 | 444.48 | 521.24 | ||||||
| BVPS($) | 135.61 | 182.06 | 315.29 | 527.05 | 707.33 | ||||||
| Wtdavgordshares(m) | 41.6 | 41.6 | 41.6 | 41.6 | 41.6 | ||||||
| Wtdavgdiluted shares (m) | 41.6 | 41.6 | 41.6 | 41.6 | 41.6 | ||||||
| Growthrates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Sales revenue (%) | 106.4 | 40.6 | 102.4 | 83.7 | 28.6 | ||||||
| EBIT (Adj) (%) | 170.3 | 59.7 | 117.4 | 92.2 | 30.9 | ||||||
| CoreNPAT(%) | 155.4 | 52.8 | 115.9 | 87.9 | 31.1 | ||||||
| CoreEPS(%) | 155.2 | 52.7 | 115.9 | 87.9 | 31.1 | ||||||
| BalanceSheet(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Cash&cashequiv. | 4,011 | 6,298 | 15,593 | 26,942 | 35,217 | ||||||
| Accounts receivables | 1,437 | 1,606 | 5,057 | 7,586 | 8,519 | ||||||
| Inventory | 357 | 280 | 1,178 | 1,804 | 2,032 | ||||||
| Net fixed &other tangibles | 355 | 409 | 614 | 673 | 731 | ||||||
| Goodwill &intangibles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Financial &other assets | 1,566 | 1,741 | 1,747 | 1,922 | 1,984 | ||||||
| Total assets | 7,726 | 10,334 | 24,190 | 38,928 | 48,482 | ||||||
| Accounts payable | 426 | 616 | 1,435 | 2,296 | 2,586 | ||||||
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Long-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Provisions &other liab | 1,661 | 2,147 | 9,618 | 14,689 | 16,458 | ||||||
| Total liabilities | 2,087 | 2,763 | 11,053 | 19,044 | |||||||
| equity | 5,639 | 16,986 | 29,413 | ||||||||
| Shareholders' Minority interests | 0 | 7,571 0 | 13,111 26 | 21,916 26 | 26 | ||||||
| Total equity | 5,639 | 7,571 | 13,136 | 21,942 | 29,438 | ||||||
| Net debt (Adj) | -4,011 | -6,298 | -15,593 | -26,942 | -35,217 | ||||||
| Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) | -71.1 | ||||||||||
| For definitions of the items in this table, | please click here. | -83.2 | -118.7 | -122.8 | -119.6 |
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Figure 1. Aspeed - Earnings estimates revision
| FY26E | FY26E | FY26E | FY27E | FY27E | FY27E | FY28E | FY28E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT$mn | New | Old | Chg | New | Old | Chg | New | Old | Chg |
| Net Sales | 18,388 | 16,055 | 14.5% | 33,777 | 24,185 | 39.7% | 43,425 | 38,453 | 12.9% |
| Gross profit | 12,831 | 11,065 | 16.0% | 23,566 | 16,647 | 41.6% | 30,405 | 26,186 | 16.1% |
| OPEX | 2,697 | 2,313 | 16.6% | 4,089 | 3,503 | 16.7% | 4,907 | 5,468 | -10.3% |
| Operating profit | 10,134 | 8,752 | 15.8% | 19,477 | 13,144 | 48.2% | 25,497 | 20,718 | 23.1% |
| Pre-tax profit | 10,569 | 9,034 | 17.0% | 19,924 | 13,444 | 48.2% | 26,121 | 21,185 | 23.3% |
| Net profit | 8,482 | 7,227 | 17.4% | 15,936 | 10,755 | 48.2% | 20,893 | 16,948 | 23.3% |
| EPS | 203.97 | 173.80 | 17.4% | 383.23 | 258.62 | 48.2% | 502.45 | 407.55 | 23.3% |
| Ratio | New | Old | diff | New | Old | diff | New | Old | diff |
| Gross margin (%) | 69.78 | 68.92 | 0.86 | 69.77 | 68.83 | 0.93 | 70.02 | 68.10 | 1.92 |
| OPEXtoSalesratio(%) | 14.67 | 14.41 | 0.26 | 12.10 | 14.48 | (2.38) | 11.30 | 14.22 | (2.92) |
| Operating margin (%) | 55.11 | 54.51 | 0.60 | 57.66 | 54.35 | 3.31 | 58.72 | 53.88 | 4.84 |
| Net margin (%) | 46.13 | 45.02 | 1.11 | 47.18 | 44.47 | 2.71 | 48.11 | 44.07 | 4.04 |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Figure 4. Aspeed - Quarterly earnings forecast
| NT$mn | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 3,147 | 3,871 | 4,682 | 6,688 | 6,983 | 7,729 | 8,733 | 10,332 | 9,085 | 18,388 | 33,777 | 43,425 |
| Gross profit | 2,177 | 2,788 | 3,239 | 4,628 | 4,854 | 5,372 | 6,108 | 7,232 | 6,179 | 12,831 | 23,566 | 30,405 |
| OPEX | 518 | 702 | 641 | 836 | 873 | 966 | 1,031 | 1,219 | 1,518 | 2,697 | 4,089 | 4,907 |
| Operating profit | 1,659 | 2,086 | 2,597 | 3,792 | 3,981 | 4,406 | 5,077 | 6,013 | 4,660 | 10,134 | 19,477 | 25,497 |
| Total Non-OP | 109 | 180 | 63 | 83 | 101 | 104 | 117 | 125 | 195 | 435 | 447 | 624 |
| Pre-tax profit | 1,768 | 2,265 | 2,660 | 3,875 | 4,082 | 4,510 | 5,194 | 6,137 | 4,855 | 10,569 | 19,924 | 26,121 |
| Income tax | 354 | 424 | 532 | 775 | 816 | 902 | 1,039 | 1,227 | 928 | 2,085 | 3,985 | 5,224 |
| Net profit | 1,414 | 1,841 | 2,127 | 3,099 | 3,265 | 3,607 | 4,154 | 4,909 | 3,928 | 8,482 | 15,936 | 20,893 |
| EPS (NT$) | 34.0 | 44.3 | 51.2 | 74.5 | 78.5 | 86.8 | 99.9 | 118.1 | 94.5 | 204.0 | 383.2 | 502.4 |
| Product mix (%) | ||||||||||||
| BMC | 94% | 91% | 91% | 93% | 94% | 93% | 91% | 90% | 95% | 92% | 92% | 89% |
| PC AV & Cupola 360 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| PFR | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| I/O Expander | 0% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 0% | 3% | 4% | 7% |
| Margins (%) | ||||||||||||
| Gross profit | 69.2 | 72.0 | 69.2 | 69.2 | 69.5 | 69.5 | 69.9 | 70.0 | 68.0 | 69.8 | 69.8 | 70.0 |
| OPEXtoSalesRatio | 16.5 | 18.1 | 13.7 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 16.7 | 14.7 | 12.1 | 11.3 |
| Operating profit | 52.7 | 53.9 | 55.5 | 56.7 | 57.0 | 57.0 | 58.1 | 58.2 | 51.3 | 55.1 | 57.7 | 58.7 |
| Pre-tax profit | 56.2 | 58.5 | 56.8 | 57.9 | 58.5 | 58.4 | 59.5 | 59.4 | 53.4 | 57.5 | 59.0 | 60.2 |
| Net profit | 44.9 | 47.6 | 45.4 | 46.3 | 46.8 | 46.7 | 47.6 | 47.5 | 43.2 | 46.1 | 47.2 | 48.1 |
| Y/Y(%) | ||||||||||||
| Net sales | 52 | 72 | 101 | 174 | 122 | 100 | 87 | 54 | 41 | 102 | 84 | 29 |
| Gross profit | 59 | 83 | 101 | 177 | 123 | 93 | 89 | 56 | 49 | 108 | 84 | 29 |
| OPEX | 52 | 106 | 68 | 84 | 69 | 38 | 61 | 46 | 23 | 78 | 52 | 20 |
| Operating profit | 62 | 76 | 111 | 211 | 140 | 111 | 95 | 59 | 60 | 117 | 92 | 31 |
| Pre-tax profit | 60 | 188 | 77 | 166 | 131 | 99 | 95 | 58 | 53 | 118 | 89 | 31 |
| Net profit | 59 | 193 | 75 | 159 | 131 | 96 | 95 | 58 | 53 | 116 | 88 | 31 |
| Q/Q(%) | ||||||||||||
| Net sales | 29 | 23 | 21 | 43 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 18 | ||||
| Gross profit | 30 | 28 | 16 | 43 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 18 | ||||
| Operating profit | 36 | 26 | 25 | 46 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 18 | ||||
| Pre-tax profit | 21 | 28 | 17 | 46 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 18 | ||||
| Net profit | 18 | 30 | 16 | 46 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 18 |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates
NT$
30k
25k
20k
15k
10k
5,000
0
Sep 25
• NT$30,000.00
• NT$25,000.00
BASE Assumptions
• Sales to grow by 84-102% у-o-y in 2026E-27E with OPM at 55.1-57.7%
• Target multiple at 50x
BEAR Assumptions
{j. Sales to grow by 20% y-o-y in 2026E-27E with OPM at 45.0%
- Target multiple at 30x
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
F 1 61% Upside
NT$ 25,000.00
4 34% Upside
NT$ 13,500.00
• 27% Downside
Bull/Bear: Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO)
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Aspeed Technology
Company description
Established in 2004 and listed in 2013, Aspeed is a leading IC design company based in Taiwan focusing on baseboard management controller (BMC) solutions. Aspeed started the business by targeting datacenter servers/white-box markets and has been working closely with server ODMs. Following the acquisition of Emulex Pilot from AVGO/Broadcom in 2016, Aspeed successfully expanded its product lines, IP pool as well as customer base and became the largest BMC supplier with c.70% of global market share. Other than BMC, Aspeed is also broadening its product portfolio by including bridge IC (BIC; or mini-BMC), platform firmware resilience (PFR) solutions and input/output (I/O) expander, aiming to maximize the dollar content it could generate per server motherboard.
Investment strategy
We rate Aspeed shares a Buy. As a leading BMC supplier with c.70%+ global market share, it has been riding the strong momentum underpinned by a recovery of general-purpose servers and upticks in AI servers. We expect the growth to continue. Apart from being in a dominant position for the supply of upcoming GB200 server BMCs with higher dollar content and better capex efficiency, new product launches including AST2700, PFR, I/O expander and Cupola 360, as well as steady growth in general-purpose servers should also act as key drivers for the company.
Valuation
We value Aspeed at NT$25,000 based on a historical mid-cycle multiple (since 2020) of 50x 2028E EPS, as we believe it fairly reflects the company's earnings performance and industry dynamics, secular growth trends, and Aspeed's strong supply chain position, as well as robust earnings growth amid margin expansions.
Risks
Our quant rating system rates the Aspeed stock High Risk based on its volatility over the past year, which we think is unwarranted given the company's dominance and outlook in the BMC sector. Key downside risks to our earnings forecasts and target price include: 1) weaker-than-expected growth in servers; 2) slower-than-expected CPU platform migration; 3) peer competition; and 4) limited progress in product diversification.
Analyst: Laura (Chia Yi) Chen
TWD
15,000
10,000
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Date
Appendix A-1
E 11-Jun-25 05:58:45
1
*5,090.91
4,236.36
05-Jan-26 03:43:52
*5,340.91
4,363.64