報告_Citi_BBU聯合電話會_20260716

PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_BBU聯合電話會_20260716_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-17）

原始內容

citivelocity.com

16 Jul 2026 10:13:33 ET │ 11 pages

Asia Electronic Components & Equipment

BBU Joint Call Takeaways - A Growing Market with Room for Multiple Winners

CITI'S TAKE

We hosted a joint investor call with Citi Japanese analyst Takero Fujiwara discussing Panasonic (6752.T) and TW BBU packers including AES (6781.TW) and Dynapack (3211.TWO). Overall, the discussion reinforces our constructive view on the BBU industry. Panasonic appears well positioned to remain the leading integrated solution provider given its proprietary cell technology, broad product portfolio, and long-standing CSP relationships. At the same time, increasing customer emphasis on supply diversification continues to create attractive opportunities for Taiwan BBU module suppliers. Looking ahead, higher-power BBUs, HVDC migration, and greater system integration should remain the primary drivers of industry growth and margin expansion over the next several years. We share our key takeaways below.

Panasonic's growth outlook validates a rapidly expanding BBU market Takero

Fujiwara expects Panasonic's data center BBU business to generate ~JPY 585bn in FY3/27 (+82% y/y) and further accelerate to ~JPY 850bn in FY3/28 (+45% y/y), making the business contribute 10% of group sales. Panasonic currently has 3 GWh of BBU battery cell capacity in Japan, and cell capacity is expected to double to around 6 GWh by CY27 and further increase to 9-10 GWh by CY28. While these forecasts relate specifically to Panasonic, the magnitude of expected growth reinforces our view that BBU is becoming a structurally important component of AI data center power infrastructure, supporting a favorable demand backdrop for the broader supply chain.

Different competitive strengths suggest room for both Panasonic and TW

suppliers One key discussion point was what underpins Panasonic's leading market position. Our Japan analyst believes the advantage is driven by several factors, including Panasonic's proprietary NCA battery technology (high energy density and strong track record of safety), early entry into the BBU market, strong relationships with CSPs, and ability to offer a more integrated solution. We think Taiwanese suppliers are not attempting to replicate the vertically integrated business model. Instead, their competitive advantage lies in battery module integration, safety validations, and close collaboration with PSUs. As more CSPs pursue second-source strategies, we continue to see opportunities for Taiwanese suppliers to gain shares at the module level while Panasonic remains the leading integrated solution provider.

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Angela Hsu AC

+886-2-8726-9083 angela.hc.hsu@citi.com

Takero Fujiwara AC

+81-3-6776-4642 takero.fujiwara@citi.com

Masahiro Shibano

+81-3-6776-4641 masahiro.shibano@citi.com

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Higher-power BBUs should continue to supporti healthy profitability Our Taiwan channel checks suggest pricing dynamics vary across product generations. Mature 3kW and 5kW BBUs have become increasingly competitive, with limited pricing power. However, higher-power products including 8kW, 12kW, and 25kW BBUs continue to benefit from higher qualification barriers, greater engineering complexity, and a limited number of qualified suppliers. We thus believe future industry profitability will depend on engineering capability and system integration rather than simply battery cell cost. Current GPM for Taiwan BBU suppliers is 30-35%, below Panasonic's 40-45% (likely reflecting the company's ability to capture value across broader system solutions rather than only supplying packs).

HVDC contribution to become more meaningful in CY28 Takero Fujiwara expects Panasonic's HVDC BBU to enter mass production in CY27, although meaningful sales contribution is more likely in CY28. This broadly aligns with our Taiwan supply chain checks; we expect customer qualification during 1H27 and shipments to begin in 2H27, while material contribution is unlikely before 2028.

Prepared for Kevin Lu

Panasonic Holdings

(6752.T; ¥4218.0; 1; 16 Jul 26; 15:30)

Valuation

To derive our target price, we use a global sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) approach. In the case of Panasonic Holdings, we reference 52 other companies in the Citi coverage universe to set a fair value PER for each business division, which we sum to derive our overall target price.

Panasonic fair-value PERs for individual business segments range from 9x to 33x, and have a weighted average of 28.6x (excluding subsidies in the battery business), taking minority interest and equity in earnings into account. We estimate business-derived equity value of ¥4,700/share. We calculate the present value of the amount we expect Panasonic to receive in battery subsidies over five years at ¥400/share. Combining these two values, we derive a target price of ¥5,100.

Risks

Risks to our target price include 1) unsuccessful management policies or strategies resulting in weaker-than-expected business investment returns or sales growth, or conversely producing greater-than-expected results at a relatively early stage, 2) stagnation in the global economy or an upturn in it, and rises or declines in demand in the electrical industry, and 3) forex trends. If these factors manifest themselves differently than we have anticipated, the share price may vary from our target price.

Panasonic Holdings (6752)

Analyst: Masahiro Shibano

If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788

Date

Appendix A-1

2 18-Jun-24 08:36:01

1

*1,900

1,272

E 29-Aug-25 02:35:06