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54KB | 真資料圖 | BofA 評等／目標價沿革圖：MDTKF 股價線與 PO 階梯區塊（2024-2026），標註歷次 PO 調整（至 24-Sep NT$6,200）；屬股價／目標價圖 |
原始內容
MediaTek
TPU wins on track for steep ramp through '28 joined by further CSP/AI lab potential
Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 6,200 TWD | Price: 3,915 TWD
3Q26 beat on consumer builds; 4Q26 lifted by TPU ramp
3Q26 sales were +10% QoQ on its flagship mobile SoC launch and customers' pre-builds ahead of its chipset price hike on rising manufacturing cost. On higher sales and better mix, GM/OpM edged up to 46%/16%, taking 3Q26 EPS to NT$17.5 above BofAe/street. 4Q26 sales was guided +25-32% QoQ, in line with BofA preview, as steep TPUv8t ramp now tracking to US$2.5bn (vs. US$2bn guide before) partially balanced by soft demand elsewhere (-15-22% QoQ vs. 5-year seasonal +1%) following the early pull-in. Despite TPUv8t growing to ~35% of its sales at lower margins, GMs is guided resiliently at 45% in 4Q26, implying better margins for its merchant business at 47%. Fast sales scale-up and stable GMs should lift operating leverage with OpMs guided for 19% at midpoint.
ASIC pipeline spanning across CSPs and frontier AI labs
Mediatek sees TPUv8t ramping to US$16bn+ revenue in '27, lifting OpM to 20%+, with upside if it could secure more capacity. The follow on TPUv9 is tracking for a meaningful production potential in '28. Importantly, it confirmed a 2 nd ASIC customer win in design now and production contribution set to kick off in '28. We believe this new project would require Mediatek's component sourcing and supply chain management at a much higher dollar content. This along with potential Bytedance win could add upside to our base case for its data center revenue of US$19bn/US$53bn in '27/'28 with xAI ASIC revenue joined from 2H28 to supplement Google TPU upgrades.
AI project diversification supports earnings and valuation
As ASIC business inflects, we lift our 2026 EPS to NT$74.13 and keep '27/28 EPS at NT$168.93/404.32. Keep our Buy rating and NT$6,200 PO on 24x 2H27-1H28E P/E (implied 30x ASIC EPS + 10x merchant EPS), backed by sales/EPS 90%/134% CAGR. Growing AI project wins should alleviate the concerns on customer concentration and TPU competition debate with share downside protected by 23x/10x '27/28 straight P/E.
| Estimates (Dec) (NT$) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (Adjusted - mn) | 106,387 | 105,319 | 118,053 | 269,139 | 644,170 |
| EPS | 66.84 | 66.17 | 74.13 | 168.93 | 404.32 |
| EPS Change (YoY) | 38.2% | -1.0% | 12.0% | 127.9% | 139.3% |
| Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha) | 69.25 | 142.78 | 289.21 | ||
| Dividend / Share | 53.00 | 53.00 | 59.00 | 135.00 | 323.00 |
| Free Cash Flow / Share | 89.53 | 92.84 | 82.16 | 168.72 | 306.48 |
| Valuation (Dec) | |||||
| P/E | 58.58x | 59.17x | 52.81x | 23.18x | 9.68x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.35% | 1.35% | 1.51% | 3.45% | 8.25% |
| EV / EBITDA* | 48.99x | 47.79x | 43.53x | 19.02x | 8.08x |
| Free Cash Flow Yield* | 2.26% | 2.35% | 2.08% | 4.28% | 7.77% |
| * For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 6. |
This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or other persons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.
>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 7 to 9. Analyst Certification on page 4. Price
30 October 2026
Equity
| Key Changes (NT$) | Previous | Current |
|---|---|---|
| 2026E EPS | 68.59 | 74.13 |
| 2027E EPS | 164.47 | 168.93 |
| 2028E EPS | 396.85 | 404.32 |
| 2026E EBITDA (m) | 132,215.7 | 138,822.6 |
| 2027E EBITDA (m) | 322,308.6 | 317,675.4 |
| 2028E EBITDA (m) | 753,730.4 | 747,774.5 |
Haas Liu >>
Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3727 haas.liu@bofa.com
Mike Yang >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) mike.c.yang@bofa.com
Cathy Hsu >>
Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) cathy.hsu3@bofa.com
| Stock Data | |
|---|---|
| Price | 3,915 TWD |
| Price Objective | 6,200 TWD |
| Date Established | 24-Sep-2026 |
| Investment Opinion | C-1-7 |
| 52-Week Range | 1,130 TWD-5,480 TWD |
| Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) | 192,837 USD / 1,605.0 |
| Market Value (mn) | 6,283,389 TWD |
| Average Daily Value (mn) | 1,024 USD |
| Free Float | 86.1% |
| BofA Ticker / Exchange | MDTKF / TAI |
| Bloomberg / Reuters | 2454 TT / 2454.TW |
| ROE (2026E) | 27.1% |
| Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) | -59.4% |
iQprofile SM MediaTek
| Key Income Statement Data (Dec) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ Millions) | |||||
| Sales | 530,586 | 595,966 | 687,867 | 1,289,495 | 2,477,884 |
| Gross Profit | 263,386 | 283,080 | 314,371 | 562,246 | 1,044,204 |
| Sell General & Admin Expense | (28,981) | (31,304) | (34,193) | (46,528) | (56,327) |
| Operating Profit | 102,412 | 103,470 | 111,663 | 284,760 | 708,284 |
| Net Interest & Other Income | 16,590 | 20,633 | 25,338 | 30,471 | 46,469 |
| Associates | 517 | 785 | 993 | 0 | 0 |
| Pretax Income | 119,519 | 124,888 | 137,993 | 315,232 | 754,753 |
| Tax (expense) / Benefit | (12,378) | (18,770) | (18,892) | (45,024) | (109,514) |
| Net Income (Adjusted) | 106,387 | 105,319 | 118,053 | 269,139 | 644,170 |
| Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,592 | 1,592 | 1,592 | 1,593 | 1,593 |
| Key Cash Flow Statement Data | |||||
| Net Income | 106,387 | 105,319 | 118,053 | 269,139 | 644,170 |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 20,936 | 22,974 | 27,160 | 32,915 | 39,491 |
| Change in Working Capital | (2,076) | (18,295) | (2,944) | (70,878) | (150,160) |
| Deferred Taxation Charge | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Other Adjustments, Net | 30,808 | 52,794 | 15,760 | 60,348 | (20,493) |
| Cash Flow from Operations | 156,055 | 162,793 | 158,028 | 291,524 | 513,007 |
| Capital Expenditure | (13,771) | (15,009) | (27,158) | (22,715) | (24,731) |
| (Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments | (14,671) | (9,972) | 5,411 | 697 | 44 |
| Other Cash Inflow / (Outflow) | (7,486) | (12,773) | (44,319) | (64,190) | (74,568) |
| Cash Flow from Investing | (35,928) | (37,754) | (66,066) | (86,208) | (99,255) |
| Shares Issue / (Repurchase) | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Cost of Dividends Paid | (87,551) | (86,070) | (85,392) | (94,630) | (216,526) |
| Cash Flow from Financing | (90,119) | (87,675) | 106,730 | 93,364 | (22,972) |
| Free Cash Flow | 142,284 | 147,784 | 130,871 | 268,809 | 488,276 |
| Net Debt | (210,705) | (243,168) | (388,778) | (687,437) | (1,078,215) |
| Change in Net Debt | (39,560) | (31,534) | (159,597) | (298,680) | (390,780) |
| Key Balance Sheet Data | |||||
| Property, Plant & Equipment | 56,917 | 60,427 | 69,113 | 75,364 | 82,151 |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 289,925 | 285,901 | 333,789 | 371,138 | 416,412 |
| Trade Receivables | 44,713 | 62,121 | 81,906 | 119,277 | 242,908 |
| Cash & Equivalents | 219,624 | 247,709 | 445,290 | 743,949 | 1,134,727 |
| Other Current Assets | 86,688 | 87,626 | 94,844 | 154,567 | 281,069 |
| Total Assets | 697,868 | 743,785 | 1,024,942 | 1,464,296 | 2,157,267 |
| Long-Term Debt | 0 | 60 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 25,910 | 31,180 | 151,149 | 151,089 | 151,085 |
| Short-Term Debt | 8,919 | 4,481 | 56,392 | 56,392 | 56,392 |
| Other Current Liabilities | 257,983 | 298,869 | 338,093 | 385,096 | 372,988 |
| Total Liabilities | 292,812 | 334,590 | 545,754 | 592,697 | 580,586 |
| Total Equity | 405,055 | 409,195 | 479,188 | 871,598 | 1,576,681 |
| Total Equity & Liabilities | 697,868 | 743,785 | 1,024,942 | 1,464,296 | 2,157,267 |
| iQmethod SM - Bus Performance* | |||||
| Return On Capital Employed | 23.9% | 22.0% | 19.0% | 30.2% | 44.8% |
| Return On Equity | 27.8% | 26.4% | 27.1% | 40.4% | 53.0% |
| Operating Margin | 19.3% | 17.4% | 16.2% | 22.1% | 28.6% |
| EBITDA Margin | 23.2% | 21.2% | 20.2% | 24.6% | 30.2% |
| iQmethod SM - Quality of Earnings* | |||||
| Cash Realization Ratio | 1.5x | 1.5x | 1.3x | 1.1x | 0.8x |
| Asset Replacement Ratio | 1.1x | 1.1x | 1.9x | 1.4x | 1.4x |
| Tax Rate (Reported) | 10.4% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 14.3% | 14.5% |
| Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio | -52.0% | -59.4% | -81.1% | -78.9% | -68.4% |
| Interest Cover | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
Key Metrics
- For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 6.
Company Sector
Semiconductors
Company Description
MediaTek is a fabless IC design company supplying to wireless communications and digital consumer markets. Before taking leadership in mobile SoC area, it had built solid ground in the TV SoC and optical disk drive markets. The firm invests heavily in R&D to seek better positioning in the 5G cycle, and has a complete offering including ASIC, Wi-Fi, PMIC etc. to address applications beyond smartphone, such as IoT and auto.
Investment Rationale
We have Buy rating on MediaTek as we think MediaTek is ready and has the strength to brace for the upcoming proliferation of IoT devices and opportunities in growing markets like ASIC, ARM-based PC, auto, and etc., and we believe its solid balance sheet and cashflow could provide downside support to the share price. Meanwhile, we expect 5G smartphone penetration to be a multi-year theme for the company, with its better competitive landscape in duopoly 5G era and an improved margin profile.
Stock Data
Price to Book Value
13.3x
lül
Focus tables
Exhibit 1: Mediatek's 3Q26-4Q26 and 2026-27 estimates BofAe vs. street
Our EPS estimates for '26/27 are now NT$74.13/168.93
| 3Q26E - Actual | 3Q26E - Old | 3Q26E - Street | 4Q26E - BofAe | 4Q26E - Old | 4Q26E - Street | 2026E - BofAe | 2026E - Old | 2026E - Street | 2027E - BofAe | 2027E - Old | 2027E - Street | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (NT$mn) Sales QoQ / YoY (%) | $168,058 10.4% | $156,165 2.6% | $161,392 6.1% | $218,476 30.0% | $210,226 34.6% | $210,676 30.5% | $687,867 15.4% | $667,725 12.0% | $670,436 12.5% | $1,289,495 87.5% | $1,287,745 92.9% | $1,170,447 74.6% |
| Gross profit (NT$mn) GMs (%) | $77,849 46.3% | $71,791 46.0% | $74,626 46.2% | $97,159 44.5% | $92,733 44.1% | $94,369 44.8% | $314,371 45.7% | $303,888 45.5% | $306,919 45.8% | $562,246 43.6% | $560,024 43.5% | $516,019 44.1% |
| Operating profit (NT$mn) OpMs (%) | $27,103 16.1% | $23,640 15.1% | $25,331 15.7% | $38,801 17.8% | $35,914 17.1% | $37,733 17.9% | $111,663 16.2% | $105,313 15.8% | $108,774 16.2% | $284,760 22.1% | $289,855 22.5% | $251,126 21.5% |
| Pretax profit (NT$mn) Pretax margins (%) | $33,573 20.0% | $28,955 18.5% | $29,718 18.4% | $49,439 22.6% | $43,110 20.5% | $41,955 19.9% | $137,993 20.1% | $127,046 19.0% | $126,965 18.9% | $315,232 24.4% | $305,619 23.7% | $268,537 22.9% |
| Tax expense (NT$mn) Tax rate (%) | -$5,691 17.0% | -$4,604 15.9% | -$4,367 14.7% | -$7,758 15.7% | -$6,770 15.7% | -$5,430 12.9% | -$19,941 14.5% | -$17,867 14.1% | -$16,531 13.0% | -$46,093 14.6% | -$43,834 14.3% | -$37,899 14.1% |
| Net profit (NT$mn) Net margins (%) | $27,882 16.6% | $24,351 15.6% | $25,351 15.7% | $41,682 19.1% | $36,340 17.3% | $36,525 17.3% | $118,053 17.2% | $109,179 16.4% | $110,434 16.5% | $269,139 20.9% | $261,785 20.3% | $230,638 19.7% |
| EPS (NT$) | $17.50 | $15.30 | $15.88 | $26.16 | $22.91 | $74.13 | $168.93 | $164.47 | ||||
| $22.83 | $68.59 | $69.32 | $143.83 |
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg
Exhibit 2: Mediatek P&L analysis from 2026-28
We estimate Mediatek's ASIC business including TPUs and xAI's accelerator project to be the key growth driver in 2028
| Mediatek business analysis | TPUv8t | Merchant | Mediatek '26 | TPUv8t | Merchant | Mediatek '27 | TPUv8t | TPUv9t | xAI | Merchant | Mediatek '28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASIC demand (mn units) ASIC ASP (US$000) | 0.5 $4.6 | 4.2 $4.6 | 1.9 $4.6 | 3.1 $11.5 | 0.9 $9.0 | ||||||
| Sales (US$bn) | $2.5 | $19.3 | $21.8 | $19.2 | $21.8 | $40.9 | $8.7 | $36.2 | $8.5 | $25.3 | $78.7 |
| Gross profit | $1.1 | $8.9 | $10.0 | $8.1 | $9.8 | $17.8 | $3.7 | $14.8 | $3.7 | $11.0 | $33.1 |
| GMs | 42% | 46% | 46% | 42% | 45% | 44% | 42% | 41% | 43% | 44% | 42% |
| Opex | $1.0 | $5.5 | $6.4 | $3.3 | $5.6 | $8.8 | $0.3 | $3.3 | $0.9 | $6.2 | $10.7 |
| Opex/sales | 39% | 28% | 29% | 17% | 25% | 22% | 3% | 9% | 11% | 25% | 14% |
| Operating profit | $0.1 | $3.5 | $3.5 | $4.8 | $4.2 | $9.0 | $3.4 | $11.6 | $2.7 | $4.8 | $22.5 |
| OpMs | 3% | 18% | 16% | 25% | 20% | 22% | 39% | 32% | 32% | 19% | 29% |
| Tax rate | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 15% |
| Net profit (US$bn) | $0.1 | $3.0 | $3.8 | $4.1 | $3.6 | $8.6 | $2.9 | $9.9 | $2.3 | $4.1 | $20.5 |
| EPS (NT$) | $1.3 | $59.2 | $74.1 | $81.2 | $72.0 | $168.9 | $57.5 | $195.6 | $46.0 | $81.3 | $404.3 |
Source: BofA Global Research estimates
Exhibit 3: Terms and definitions
Glossary of abbreviations/acronyms
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| AI | Artificial Intelligence |
| ASIC | Application Specific Integrated Circuit |
| BoD | Board of Directors |
| ECB | Euro-Convertible Bond |
| EMIB | Embedded Multi-die Interconnect Bridge |
| HBM | High Bandwidth Memory |
| HPC | High-Performance Computing |
| IC | Integrated Circuit |
| TPU | Tensor Processing Unit |
Source: BofA Global Research
il BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Price objective basis & risk
MediaTek (MDTKF)
Our PO of NT$6,200 is based on 24x 2H27-1H28 P/E. which is towards the higher end of its historical P/E range of 8-25x, as we believe the company's broadening ASIC pipeline could drive an earnings upgrade cycle.
Upside risks to our PO are: (1) better than expected smartphone demand, especially in China, (2) a better pricing in mobile communication segment thanks to alleviated competition and rising exposure to high-end/flagship market, and (3) an even more superior investment return on non-op side to uplift its net cash position. (4) Unexpected collaboration with global technology leaders leads to higher than expected margins/profits
Downside risks to our PO are: (1) weaker-than-expected end-market situation in consumer-related smartphone/TV space, (2) macro challenges including inflation/policyrelated pressures, (3) rising competition from existing players and/or newcomers in smartphone/TV SoC (system on chip) space, and (4) ASP/margin pressure caused by each or all of the above and/or rising foundry costs. (4) Bidding process for Meta Inference ASIC is slower than expected.