PDF 原檔：報告_BofA_南電8046_20261001_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-02）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_BofA_南電8046_20261001_001.png |
60KB | 真資料圖 | BofA 股價與目標價沿革圖：深藍線為 NANYF 股價（2024 年初至 2026 年 10 月）、淺藍階梯區為 PO，標註日期與 PO 數字（如 30-Sep NT$300、25-Jun NT$1200、19-Aug NT$1700 等）；含股價走勢，不嵌入公司頁 |
分類只有三類：真資料圖／裝飾·logo·banner／文字卡。<40KB 未 Read 者另註。
原始內容
NYPCB
Alarm cleared with new drivers into 2027; re-it. Buy with PO raise to NT$2,000
Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 2,000 TWD | Price: 1,340 TWD
BT substrate price hike resumed from 4Q26
Following (see report) the worries of moderating BT substrate price hike in early September, we now expect NYPCB to still raise relevant ASP by single-digit % in 4Q26, and the hike is purely driven by favorable S/D which will fully translate into the accretion in bottom-line. Following this, BT substrate price will likely be raised by another 20+% in 1Q27, due partly to the cost pass-through. We currently bake in ~10% revenue QoQ with 32-33% GM for 4Q26, but we do not rule out the possibility for its revenue to surprise on the upside, should there be a faster ramp of its ABF substrate capacity in Kunshan.
New driver for 2027: server CPU & mix optimization
Looking into 2027 we expect the benefits of demand overflow on (see report) server CPU side to materialize, and we flag a chance for the firm to record 20+% revenue from the emerging business with AMD server CPU, where NYPCB is working on the qualification in its Shulin site currently and should capture most of the spillover demand if the progress goes smooth. Meanwhile, the firm will likely allocate more capacity from other sites (e.g. Kunshan) to fulfill the demand from Broadcom, which also helps enhance the mix. Currently we model ~50% GM for its ABF substrate business in 2027, but we see chance for further upward revision, driven by more favorable S/D dynamics and mix.
Raise estimates/PO; prime beneficiary of price hike
NYPCB's share price (up ~50%) lags its major peers Unimicron/Kinsus (up ~70%) since late-July, but in our view it is still the best proxy to position for price hike in the substrate market. Judging from (see report) Kinsus' August prints last week, we believe NYPCB remains on track to meet or beat the market's expectations on N-T margins, and we reiterate Buy on the stock. Along with 13%/18% EPS raise in 2027/28E thanks to the more benign pricing/margin outlook driven by further mix improvement and S/D, we raise PO to NT$2,000 (from NT$1,700) same based on 35x 2H27-1H28E P/E.
| Estimates (Dec) (NT$) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (Adjusted - mn) | 204 | 1,947 | 11,914 | 28,304 | 45,287 |
| EPS | 0.315 | 3.01 | 18.44 | 43.80 | 70.09 |
| EPS Change (YoY) | -96.5% | 855.6% | 512.0% | 137.6% | 60.0% |
| Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha) | 17.80 | 47.79 | 79.59 | ||
| Dividend / Share | 1.00 | 2.00 | 12.00 | 23.00 | 32.00 |
| Free Cash Flow / Share | (0.210) | 1.05 | (1.78) | 26.70 | 58.13 |
| Valuation (Dec) | |||||
| P/E | 4,250x | 444.77x | 72.68x | 30.59x | 19.12x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.075% | 0.149% | 0.896% | 1.72% | 2.39% |
| EV / EBITDA* | 166.89x | 97.65x | 43.59x | 21.75x | 14.40x |
| Free Cash Flow Yield* | -0.016% | 0.078% | -0.133% | 1.99% | 4.34% |
| * For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 7. |
This research report provides general information only. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or other persons without the express written consent of BofA Securities.
>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Refer to important disclosures on page 8 to 10. Analyst Certification on page 5. Price
01 October 2026
Equity
| Key Changes (NT$) | Previous | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Price Obj. | 1,700.00 | 2,000.00 |
| 2026E EPS | 19.02 | 18.44 |
| 2027E EPS | 38.80 | 43.80 |
| 2028E EPS | 59.52 | 70.09 |
| 2026E EBITDA (m) | 20,341.5 | 19,885.3 |
| 2027E EBITDA (m) | 35,606.6 | 39,855.3 |
| 2028E EBITDA (m) | 52,409.1 | 60,168.3 |
Mike Yang >> Research Analyst Merrill Lynch (Taiwan) +886 2 2376 3729
Stock Data
| Price | 1,340 TWD |
| Price Objective | 2,000 TWD |
| Date Established | 1-Oct-2026 |
| Investment Opinion | C-1-7 |
| 52-Week Range | 222.50 TWD-1,415 |
| TWD | |
| Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) | 27,124 USD / 646.2 |
| Market Value (mn) | 865,862 TWD |
| Average Daily Value (mn) | 503.48 USD |
| Free Float | 38.2% |
| BofA Ticker / Exchange | NANYF / TAI |
| Bloomberg / Reuters | 8046 TT / 8046.TW |
| ROE (2026E) | 23.2% |
| Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2025A) | -18.9% |
CPU - central processing unit
BT - bismaleimide triazine
N-T - near-term
NYPCB - Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board
ABF - Ajinomoto build-up film
S/D - supply/demand
GM - gross margin
iQprofile SM NYPCB
| Key Income Statement Data (Dec) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ Millions) | |||||
| Sales | 32,283 | 40,173 | 58,925 | 90,325 | 120,648 |
| Gross Profit | 358 | 3,647 | 15,691 | 36,003 | 56,202 |
| Sell General & Admin Expense | (1,624) | (1,665) | (1,787) | (1,921) | (2,006) |
| Operating Profit | (1,267) | 1,982 | 13,904 | 34,082 | 54,196 |
| Net Interest & Other Income | 1,430 | 363 | 723 | 702 | 687 |
| Associates | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Pretax Income | 163 | 2,346 | 14,627 | 34,784 | 54,883 |
| Tax (expense) / Benefit | 41 | (399) | (2,713) | (6,480) | (9,596) |
| Net Income (Adjusted) | 204 | 1,947 | 11,914 | 28,304 | 45,287 |
| Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding | 646 | 646 | 646 | 646 | 646 |
| Key Cash Flow Statement Data | |||||
| Net Income | 204 | 1,947 | 11,914 | 28,304 | 45,287 |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 6,460 | 6,894 | 5,981 | 5,773 | 5,972 |
| Change in Working Capital | (1,779) | (3,218) | (1,528) | (7,152) | (6,880) |
| Deferred Taxation Charge | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Other Adjustments, Net | (2,725) | (2,596) | (517) | 325 | 186 |
| Cash Flow from Operations | 2,160 | 3,027 | 15,851 | 27,250 | 44,565 |
| Capital Expenditure | (2,296) | (2,348) | (17,000) | (10,000) | (7,000) |
| (Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Cash Inflow / (Outflow) | (306) | 625 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash Flow from Investing | (2,602) | (1,723) | (17,000) | (10,000) | (7,000) |
| Shares Issue / (Repurchase) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cost of Dividends Paid | (3,554) | (646) | (1,292) | (7,754) | (14,862) |
| Cash Flow from Financing | (3,843) | (887) | (1,292) | (7,754) | (14,862) |
| Free Cash Flow | (136) | 679 | (1,149) | 17,250 | 37,565 |
| Net Debt | (8,587) | (8,706) | (6,265) | (15,761) | (38,463) |
| Change in Net Debt | 3,849 | (109) | 2,442 | (9,496) | (22,703) |
| Key Balance Sheet Data | |||||
| Property, Plant & Equipment | 39,991 | 35,373 | 46,392 | 50,619 | 51,646 |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 2,273 | 2,211 | 2,263 | 2,314 | 2,365 |
| Trade Receivables | 6,996 | 9,552 | 12,480 | 19,130 | 25,552 |
| Cash & Equivalents | 8,587 | 8,706 | 6,265 | 15,761 | 38,463 |
| Other Current Assets | 5,092 | 5,364 | 6,487 | 8,075 | 9,525 |
| Total Assets | 62,938 | 61,207 | 73,887 | 95,898 | 127,552 |
| Long-Term Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 10,824 | 7,896 | 7,896 | 7,896 | 7,896 |
| Short-Term Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Current Liabilities | 6,664 | 7,189 | 9,247 | 10,708 | 11,937 |
| Total Liabilities | 17,488 | 15,085 | 17,142 | 18,604 | 19,833 |
| Total Equity | 45,450 | 46,123 | 56,745 | 77,294 | 107,719 |
| Total Equity & Liabilities | 62,938 | 61,207 | 73,887 | 95,898 | 127,552 |
| iQmethod SM - Bus Performance* | |||||
| Return On Capital Employed | -1.6% | 3.2% | 19.3% | 37.2% | 44.6% |
| Return On Equity | 0.4% | 4.3% | 23.2% | 42.2% | 49.0% |
| Operating Margin | -3.9% | 4.9% | 23.6% | 37.7% | 44.9% |
| EBITDA Margin | 16.1% | 22.1% | 33.7% | 44.1% | 49.9% |
| iQmethod SM - Quality of Earnings* | |||||
| Cash Realization Ratio | 10.6x | 1.6x | 1.3x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Asset Replacement Ratio | 0.4x | 0.3x | 2.8x | 1.7x | 1.2x |
| Tax Rate (Reported) | NM | 17.0% | 18.5% | 18.6% | 17.5% |
| Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio | -18.9% | -18.9% | -11.0% | -20.4% | -35.7% |
| Interest Cover | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Key Metrics
- For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 7.
Company Sector
Semiconductors
Company Description
Founded in 1997, NYPCB was listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange in 2006. The firm is a 67%-owned subsidiary of Nan Ya Plastics Corporation (1303 TT). NYPCB's main products are HDI, PCB and IC substrates (including ABF and BT substrates), widely used in telecommunication, consumers, PC, and Auto applications. The clients include AMD, Broadcom, Samsung, Apple, Continental, etc. The main competitors include Unimicron, Kinsus, Ibiden, Shinko, and SEMCO, etc.
Investment Rationale
We have a Buy rating on NYPCB, in view of its continuous improvement of utilization rate and gross margin across ABF and BT substrate business into 2027, thanks to the robust demand growth from fabless customers and demand overflow in AI ASICs.
Stock Data
Price to Book Value
15.3x
il
Exhibit 1: Earnings estimate change
We raise 2027/28E EPS by 13%/18% after baking in the assumptions of stronger revenue growth, gross margin, and operating leverage
| (NT$mn) | BofA 26 (E) - New | BofA 26 (E) - Old | BofA 26 (E) - Diff (%) | BofA 27 (E) - New | BofA 27 (E) - Old | BofA 27 (E) - Diff (%) | BofA 28 (E) - New | BofA 28 (E) - Old | BofA 28 (E) - Diff (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total sales | 58,925 | 59,349 | -0.7 | 90,325 | 86,962 | 3.9 | 120,648 | 117,347 | 2.8 |
| Gross profit | 15,691 | 16,150 | -2.8 | 36,003 | 31,739 | 13.4 | 56,202 | 48,430 | 16.0 |
| Gross margin | 26.6% | 27.2% | -0.6 ppt | 39.9% | 36.5% | 3.4 ppt | 46.6% | 41.3% | 5.3 ppt |
| Operating profit | 13,904 | 14,360 | -3.2 | 34,082 | 29,833 | 14.2 | 54,196 | 46,437 | 16.7 |
| Operating margin | 23.6% | 24.2% | -0.6 ppt | 37.7% | 34.3% | 3.4 ppt | 44.9% | 39.6% | 5.3 ppt |
| Pretax income | 14,627 | 15,083 | -3.0 | 34,784 | 30,535 | 13.9 | 54,883 | 47,124 | 16.5 |
| Pretax margin | 24.8% | 25.4% | -0.6 ppt | 38.5% | 35.1% | 3.4 ppt | 45.5% | 40.2% | 5.3 ppt |
| Net income | 11,914 | 12,293 | -3.1 | 28,304 | 25,071 | 12.9 | 45,287 | 38,459 | 17.8 |
| Net margin | 20.2% | 20.7% | -0.5 ppt | 31.3% | 28.8% | 2.5 ppt | 37.5% | 32.8% | 4.8 ppt |
| EPS (NT$) | 18.44 | 19.02 | -3.1 | 43.80 | 38.80 | 12.9 | 70.09 | 59.52 | 17.8 |
Source: BofA Global Research estimates
Exhibit 2: BofAe vs consensus
We are more conservative in the assumptions of revenue growth vs consensus, but our gross margin estimates are slightly higher vs street numbers
| (NT$mn) | 2026E - BofAe | 2026E - Consensus | 2026E - Diff (%) | 2027E - BofAe | 2027E - Consensus | 2027E - Diff (%) | 2028E - BofAe | 2028E - Consensus | 2028E - Diff (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total sales | 58,925 | 59,361 | -0.7 | 90,325 | 102,641 | -12.0 | 120,648 | 150,845 | -20.0 |
| Gross profit | 15,691 | 15,504 | 1.2 | 36,003 | 39,395 | -8.6 | 56,202 | 69,122 | -18.7 |
| Gross margin | 26.6% | 26.1% | 0.5 ppt | 39.9% | 38.4% | 1.5 ppt | 46.6% | 45.8% | 0.8 ppt |
| Operating profit | 13,904 | 13,753 | 1.1 | 34,082 | 38,511 | -11.5 | 54,196 | 66,377 | -18.4 |
| Operating margin | 23.6% | 23.2% | 0.4 ppt | 37.7% | 37.5% | 0.2 ppt | 44.9% | 44.0% | 0.9 ppt |
| Pretax income | 14,627 | 14,382 | 1.7 | 34,784 | 36,124 | -3.7 | 54,883 | 67,011 | -18.1 |
| Pretax margin | 24.8% | 24.2% | 0.6 ppt | 38.5% | 35.2% | 3.3 ppt | 45.5% | 44.4% | 1.1 ppt |
| Net income | 11,914 | 11,538 | 3.3 | 28,304 | 29,651 | -4.5 | 45,287 | 54,116 | -16.3 |
| Net margin | 20.2% | 19.4% | 0.8 ppt | 31.3% | 28.9% | 2.4 ppt | 37.5% | 35.9% | 1.7 ppt |
| EPS (NT$) | 18.44 | 17.86 | 3.3 | 43.80 | 45.89 | -4.5 | 70.09 | 83.75 | -16.3 |
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg
il
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
Exhibit 3: Income statement
We expect the firm to record 40+% revenue CAGR during 2025-28, and its gross margin will expand to 40+% level during 2027-28
| (NT$mn) | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,177 | 13,575 | 16,264 | 17,909 | 19,001 | 21,625 | 23,788 | 25,911 | 40,173 | 58,925 | 90,325 | 120,648 |
| COGS | -9,406 | -10,215 | -11,548 | -12,065 | -12,290 | -13,411 | -14,006 | -14,615 | -36,526 | -43,234 | -54,322 | -64,447 |
| Gross Profit | 1,771 | 3,360 | 4,716 | 5,844 | 6,711 | 8,213 | 9,782 | 11,296 | 3,647 | 15,691 | 36,003 | 56,202 |
| Operating expenses | -419 | -461 | -442 | -465 | -457 | -505 | -470 | -488 | -1,665 | -1,787 | -1,921 | -2,006 |
| SG&A | -419 | -461 | -442 | -465 | -457 | -505 | -470 | -488 | -1,665 | -1,787 | -1,921 | -2,006 |
| R&D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Operating income | 1,352 | 2,899 | 4,274 | 5,378 | 6,254 | 7,708 | 9,312 | 10,808 | 1,982 | 13,904 | 34,082 | 54,196 |
| Non-operating income | 246 | 77 | 200 | 200 | 176 | 175 | 175 | 175 | 363 | 723 | 702 | 687 |
| Interest income | 37 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 33 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 158 | 145 | 128 | 113 |
| Investment income | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 18 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| Others | 196 | 29 | 151 | 151 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 187 | 527 | 523 | 523 |
| Pre-tax profit | 1,598 | 2,976 | 4,474 | 5,578 | 6,430 | 7,883 | 9,487 | 10,983 | 2,346 | 14,627 | 34,784 | 54,883 |
| Tax | -290 | -714 | -761 | -948 | -964 | -1,971 | -1,897 | -1,648 | -399 | -2,713 | -6,480 | -9,596 |
| Net income | 1,309 | 2,262 | 3,714 | 4,630 | 5,465 | 5,912 | 7,590 | 9,336 | 1,947 | 11,914 | 28,304 | 45,287 |
| EPS (NT$) | 2.03 | 3.50 | 5.75 | 7.16 | 8.46 | 9.15 | 11.75 | 14.45 | 3.01 | 18.44 | 43.80 | 70.09 |
| Margin | ||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 15.8% | 24.8% | 29.0% | 32.6% | 35.3% | 38.0% | 41.1% | 43.6% | 9.1% | 26.6% | 39.9% | 46.6% |
| Operating margin | 12.1% | 21.4% | 26.3% | 30.0% | 32.9% | 35.6% | 39.1% | 41.7% | 4.9% | 23.6% | 37.7% | 44.9% |
| Pre-tax margin | 14.3% | 21.9% | 27.5% | 31.1% | 33.8% | 36.5% | 39.9% | 42.4% | 5.8% | 24.8% | 38.5% | 45.5% |
| Net margin | 11.7% | 16.7% | 22.8% | 25.9% | 28.8% | 27.3% | 31.9% | 36.0% | 4.8% | 20.2% | 31.3% | 37.5% |
| QoQ growth | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | 0.1% | 21.5% | 19.8% | 10.1% | 6.1% | 13.8% | 10.0% | 8.9% | ||||
| Gross profit | 26.7% | 89.7% | 40.4% | 23.9% | 14.8% | 22.4% | 19.1% | 15.5% | ||||
| Operating profit | 40.4% | 114.4% | 47.4% | 25.8% | 16.3% | 23.3% | 20.8% | 16.1% | ||||
| Pre-tax profit | 13.4% | 86.2% | 50.3% | 24.7% | 15.3% | 22.6% | 20.4% | 15.8% | ||||
| Net profit | 8.9% | 72.9% | 64.2% | 24.7% | 18.1% | 8.2% | 28.4% | 23.0% | ||||
| YoY growth | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | 32.1% | 41.7% | 48.3% | 60.4% | 70.0% | 59.3% | 46.3% | 44.7% | 24.4% | 46.7% | 53.3% | 33.6% |
| Gross profit | 311.7% | 337.1% | 349.2% | 317.9% | 278.9% | 144.4% | 107.4% | 93.3% | 919.6% | 330.2% | 129.4% | 56.1% |
| Operating profit | 3986.4% | 691.9% | 589.1% | 458.5% | 362.5% | 165.9% | 117.9% | 101.0% | n.a. | 601.4% | 145.1% | 59.0% |
| Pre-tax profit | 524.0% | n.a. | 393.2% | 295.9% | 302.3% | 164.9% | 112.0% | 96.9% | 1338.4% | 523.6% | 137.8% | 57.8% |
| Net profit | 530.7% | n.a. | 412.3% | 285.2% | 317.7% | 161.4% | 104.4% | 101.7% | 855.6% | 512.0% | 137.6% | 60.0% |
Source: BofA Global Research estimates, company data
BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH
lül
Price objective basis & risk
NYPCB (NANYF)
Our PO of NT$2,000 is based on 35x 2H27-1H28E P/E. We view this multiple as fair given ROE and operating margin expansion to 39% and 41% in 2027-28E (vs 13% and 14% in 2025-26E).
Upside risks to our PO are (1) tighter ABF supply, (2) higher SiP/AiP adoption, and (3) less intensified competition pressure in PCB business.
Downside risks are (1) greater ABF expansion from peers, (2) muted SiP/AiP adoption, and (3) more severe competition in PCB business.