PDF 原檔：報告_Aletheia_聯發科2454_20261020_original.pdf

原始內容

119530

MediaTek

Semiconductor #5G Smartphone #AI #TPU #ASIC

Price: TWD 4,205

No CNY

Target Price: TWD 6,500

USD

Total return: 58.1%

Risk: High

0.089

0.135

Angus Lin

+852 9250 7088

angus.lin@aletheia-capital.com

Warren Lau

+852 9181 4766

warren.lau@aletheia-capital.com

MediaTek

Bloomberg

RIC

2454 TT

2454.TW

Market cap (USDbn)

208

Average daily T/O (USD|bn)

1.4

119530

3Q Earnings Preview and 4Q Outlook

We preview MediaTek's 3Q26 results and 4Q26 outlook, scheduled for release on 30 October. We forecast a strong beat across both quarters, driven by aggressive pull-in demand for smartphones and Smart Edge devices ahead of MTK's September price hikes. Growth will be further amplified by an initial $2.5bn revenue contribution from TPUv8t in 4Q. Near-term catalysts include TPUv8t HVM in 4Q26E, TPUv9 tapeout results in 4Q26E1Q27E and ABF substrate execution milestones, TPUv10 design partner confirmation in 1H27E and ByteDance onboarding as a new ASIC client. We reiterate BUY on MTK as the company successfully transforms from a smartphone vendor into a premier AI supplier.

3Q results preview and 4Q outlook

MTK's 3Q26 preliminary sales of NT$168bn (+10% QoQ, +18% YoY) exceeded the high end of guidance (flat to +5% QoQ), driven by smartphone pull-in ahead of MTK's planned SoC price hikes. We expect GPM of ~46%, at the mid-point of the 44.5%-47.5% guidance range, as price hikes offset rising foundry, OSAT, and substrate costs. For 4Q26, we expect the core business to be flat to up low-single digits QoQ (vs our previous estimate of -10% QoQ), driven by strong pull-in demand for Smart Edge devices, MTK's higher allocation in Samsung's mid-range phones at the expense of the low-yield Exynos, and the launch of its flagship SoC. Together with a $2.5bn contribution from the TPUv8t ramp (one-third of group sales), this should lift 4Q revenue by 50%+ QoQ and 65-70% YoY. While 4Q GPM is expected to decline 1.3ppts QoQ to below 45% (ASIC mix up), due to operating leverage, we forecast earnings to double YoY!

Datacenter ASIC upside in FY27E/28E

We expect management to reiterate its 2026 datacenter ASIC revenue guidance of $2bn+ vs our $2.5bn estimate, with TPUv8t shipments starting in 4Q26E. We forecast TPUv8t shipments of 4.2m/4.0m units in 2027E/28E, implying 2027E ASIC revenue above $20bn (accounting for half of company's revenue) vs the company's recent guidance of $12bn$16bn. We believe the Street has yet to factor in ByteDance as MTK's second ASIC customer. Although MTK acts mainly as a capacity supplier, similar to Qualcomm, we estimate this represents a $1bn+ revenue opportunity in 2027E. Because of the surge in the datacenter ASIC business, we forecast revenue and earnings to double and surge 2.5x YoY in FY27E.

Enhancing sight into TPUv9 and v10

We stated in our July note that Humufish (TPUv9) will only kick off in 1H28E, with HVM in 2H28E, with the Zebrafish lifecycle lasting into 1H29E (seven quarters). The recent compute die design tweak by Google does not affect this timeline. We have also highlighted in our Oct 1 notes that the EMIB-T process yield has improved to 50%s while the initial ABF substrate reached 30%s. Besides the initial three substrate suppliers, Intel has added AT&S and SEMCO to the supplier list. For TPUv10, we reiterate our view of two versions, both slated for HVM in 2029E: Merope (V10t) - Google/AMD and/or AVGO and Icefish (V10i): Google/MTK/GUC.

KEY FINANCIAL AND VALUATION MATRIX

Source: MediaTek, Aletheia/TAG

Upside: 54.6%

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3Q Earnings Preview and 4Q Outlook

Earnings estimates and stock recommendation

Earnings revision

We tweaked our 2026E-28E earnings up by 1%-7% as we factor in slightly higher ASP reflecting input cost inflation for foundry, OSAT, and substrate. We now assume 4Q26E core business to grow by 3% QoQ driven mainly by a strong pull-in demand for Smart Edge devices and customers' pull-ins ahead of MTK's SoC price increase in September and early-2027E.

We retain our forecast for datacenter ASIC revenue of $2.5bn and $22bn in FY26E and FY27E, respectively. Notably, we believe MTK not only has TPU but also has ByteDance's ASIC business starting in 2027E, with a revenue contribution of $1b-$2bn/$2bn-$3bn for 2027E/28E. We believe ASIC business for ByteDance is similar to QCOM's, that MTK is basically a capacity supplier and chips are still based on ByteDance's design. Our revised 2026E/27E/28E EPS are 14%/38%/19% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates.

Reiterate BUY with TP of TWD6,500

We reiterate our BUY rating for MTK and retain our TP of TWD6,500, based on unchanged 25x average 2027E/28E P/E, which also implies 20x 2028E P/E. We think MTK deserves a higher P/E vs its AI compute peers globally, justified by its rapid earnings growth in the next 24 months (+154%/+66% in 2027E/28E) thanks to its market share gains and better earnings predictability. We may be able to rollover to later years' multiples once we can identify more ASIC project wins and quantify them. In a bull case scenario, MTK not only secures TPUv10 but also wins another few ASIC projects it is working on now, it is not impossible to see TWD400-500 earnings power in future years and this can further drive the shares - we just need more time for the company to prove this. Near-term catalysts include TPUv8t HVM (4Q26), TPUv10 design partner confirmation (in the next few months), a new ASIC customer (ByteDance), and the TPUv9 tapeout result (tapeout in 4Q26E and result in 1Q27E).

FIGURE 1: EARNINGS REVISION FOR MEDIATEK

Source: MediaTek, Aletheia Capital/TAG

FIGURE 2: EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR MEDIATEK VS CONSENSUS

Source: Bloomberg, MediaTek, Aletheia Capital /TAG

MediaTek

3Q Earnings Preview and 4Q Outlook

Earnings model

Source: Company, Aletheia Capital/TAG

MediaTek

3Q Earnings Preview and 4Q Outlook

Financial Statements

INCOME STATEMENT

FY23A FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E FYE Dec (TWDb)

723 1,444 2,172 Cash/ST investments

937 Receivable

(362) Current assets

598 Fixed assets

575 Goodwill & intangibles

20 Other LT assets

0 LT assets

595 Total assets

(71) Payable

524 ST debt

48.33 66.78 66.11 77.90 197.70 328.77 Current liabilities

-21% 22% 12% 21% 100% 50% Total liabilities

-23% 27% 7% 17% 93% 47% Retained earnings

-35% 39% -1% 17% 153% 66% Liability&Equity

CASH FLOW

RATIO & PER SHARE DATA

FY23A FY24A FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E FYE Dec (TWD)

524 Gross margin

23 EBITDA margin

(76) Op. Profit margin

0 Net Profit margin

471 ROE (%)

(18) ROA (%)

0 Gross gearing

0 Net gearing

(18) Asset turnover (%)

0 Leverage (x)

0 Payable days

(252) Receivable days

0 Inventory days

(252) EPS (TWD)

0 BVPS

201 Net cash per share

276 SPS

477 FCFPS

453 Total returns (%)

Source: Company, Aletheia Capital /TAG

3Q Earnings Preview and 4Q Outlook

Alētheia Research1 Team

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3Q Earnings Preview and 4Q Outlook

Firm Disclosures

Aletheia Capital Ltd ("Aletheia") is a limited company registered in Hong Kong, located at Unit 2407, World-Wide House, 19 Des Voeux Road, Central, Hong Kong.

Aletheia Analyst Network Ltd ('AAN') is a limited company registered in Hong Kong and is a wholly owned by Aletheia and is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, is a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 794762.

Aletheia Capital (Singapore) Pte Ltd ('ACSG') is a limited company registered in Singapore, UEN 201823248E, and is a wholly owned by AAN and is an Exempt Financial Adviser as defined in the Financial Advisers Act.

This report was published by AAN and is distributed by AAN and ACSG. For investors in Singapore, this material is provided by ACSG pursuant to Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. If there are any matters arising from, or in connection with this material, please contact ACSG, Level 39, MBFC Tower 2, 10 Marina Blvd, Singapore 018983.

Additional information will be made available upon request.