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原始內容
Warren Lau 9 TT 6 warren.lau@aletheia-capital.com
All Good Except Margins
- While TSMC reported a strong set of results and issued equally impressive guidance, margins came in below our optimistic forecast. Beyond this, TSMC's comments on robust Al demand, capacity supply tightness in 2027 and significant uplift in capex for 2026-2028 are consistent with our expectations. We forecast TSMC's revenue and earnings to double from 2026-2028 and retain Buy rating, with a target price of NT$5,000 / $1,000.
- Our initial take on the profit margins: Our quick analysis suggests the faster than expected rise in variable costs (depreciation is within our expectations) is probably due to the initial ramp of 2nm wafers as well as the overseas businesses - both lack scale for the time being. Variable cost increased more than 33% sequentially in 3Q26 (vs our forecast of 15-20%). This resulted in a shortfall in gross margin of 2.5ppts: 66.4% as compared to our estimates of 68-69%. The company reported gross margin of 67.7% in 2Q. Given the 4Q margin guidance of 65-67% vs our expectation of 68-70%, we will need to recalibrate our assumptions on the company's variable cost structure.
- 4Q revenue guidance points to acceleration of momentum: TSMC expects revenue to be $52.3-54.3bn, implying mid-teen QoQ and nearly 60% YoY growth, compared to our expectation of $51-53bn. 3Q revenue grew just below 51% YoY. We believe TSMC continues to execute well on manufacturing by improving the productivity of its tools as well as leveraging its under-utilized mature capacity to generate more advanced wafers. These are in addition to the richer mix of leading-edge wafers as well as rapid expansion of advanced packaging services. We expect TSMC's revenue to sustain well over 40% growth run rate in FY27E/28E, with cutting edge wafer revenue (N5-A14) to double in FY26E-28E and advanced packaging to jump four-folds in the same period.
- The sustainability of Al demand: TSMC revealed that it has sent teams to perform due diligence on the build out of Al datacentre and power supply in the US. This is in addition to investigation into its customers' demand. The due diligence is to ensure that TSMC does not over invest in capacity which may negatively impact its profitability. We will publish a more detailed update on TSMC shortly.
Buy
第 2-3 頁（圖像轉寫）
本檔 PDF 第 2-3 頁文字層為亂碼，以下為依頁面圖像轉寫。
- 第 2 頁：Alētheia Research Team 名單與 Product Marketing Teams 聯絡資訊（Technology Hardware 主責分析師 Warren Lau；團隊涵蓋 Global Strategy、Asianomics、Tech Thematic Strategy、Asia Equity Strategy、China Strategy、Tactical Alpha Strategy、Global Commodities，及 Consumer & Internet、China Technology、Telecoms、CrossASEAN、India、MENA 各產業主責），並列美洲／歐洲／亞洲業務聯絡人；與台積電內容無關。
- 第 3 頁：Firm Disclosures、Analyst Certification and Disclosures、Disclaimer 標準揭露條文（Aletheia Capital Ltd 為香港註冊公司，報告由 Aletheia Analyst Network Ltd 發行；分析師聲明觀點反映個人看法、報酬與特定建議無關、本人及關聯人無財務利益；報告僅供專業投資人使用，不得轉發；© 2026 Aletheia Capital Ltd）。