PDF 原檔：260629_2330_台積電_ms_TSMC_original.pdf
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57KB | 真資料圖 | 半導體供應鏈庫存天數長條圖（1Q13–1Q26，2026 約 119 天） |
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217KB | 真資料圖 | 3DFabric 產能：CoWoS CAGR>80%、TSMC-SoIC CAGR>90% |
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52KB | 真資料圖 | TSMC 年度 capex + 資本密集度（2011–2028e，2026e≈$56bn） |
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60KB | 真資料圖 | TSMC P/B vs ROE band（avg 3.8x） |
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63KB | 真資料圖 | MS Risk/Reward：Bull 3,480／Base 2,888／Bear 1,590 + consensus PT 分布 |
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原始內容
M June 29, 2026 03:19 PM GMT
TSMC | Asia Pacific
Domination in leading-edge foundry continues; OW
| What's Changed TSMC (2330.TW) | From | To |
|---|---|---|
| Price Target | NT$2,588.00 | NT$2,888.00 |
The Samsung foundry and Intel foundry competition should be a minor issue, given TSMC's capacity scale, EUV supply priority, and process node leadership. Raise price target to NT$2,888 given better revenue and pricing outlook. Stay OW.
On July 16, we expect TSMC to further raise revenue and capex guidance for 2026: Given the strong AI capex and chip demand (CPU, GPU, ASIC, and optical networking), we expect TSMC to lift 2026e revenue guidance to close to 40% Y/Y growth and raise capex to US$56bn, the high end of its initial US$52-56bn range. See Exhibit 1 for the earnings preview table. We expect upside surprise.
Key questions for the coming 2Q26 earnings call:
- How will TSMC address competition from Samsung foundry (strong memory profits) and Intel foundry (US policy support)? In that case, could TSMC hike wafer prices in 2027 and further improve gross margin?
- Memory cost impact on demand: is TSMC seeing that in foundry orders?
- How could TSMC use advanced packaging capacity if customers go for other sources of foundry/OSAT support? Will consumer/networking demand start to consume meaningful amounts of advanced packaging by 2027?
Our latest industry checks suggest very strong 2nm demand; TSMC remains the only game in town: TSMC recently changed the floorplan of its 3nm fabs (Fab 18 P10/11/12) to 2nm (F22 P7/8/9), implying that 2nm demand is 60kwpm greater than its plan a year ago. Clearly, AI CPU, GPU, ASIC, and networking are the major drivers. Separately, we don't rule out the possibility that Intel may start to outsource some 2nm server CPU from 2028, given very strong agentic AI demand. Intel also needs to reserve some EUV/capacity for its foundry service.
What do we think about the competition? Capacity and technology matter: We think US customers (e.g., Tesla, Google, Apple ) are seeking second sources, mainly because of TSMC's 3nm capacity shortage. However, TSMC is catching up on capacity expansion quickly. Key customers need to stick with TSMC for the most important and volume products to 'stay in the game.' In terms of scale, TSMC's 2nm + 3nm capacity could be 400k in total by the end of 2028, almost 10x Intel's 14A + 18A at 40k-50k, and Samsung's SF2 at similar size. From the 2027 EUV allocation for logic foundry, TSMC's 40+ units is also much larger than Intel's (IDM + Foundry) 9-11 units, and Samsung foundry's 5-7 units. In that case, TSMC should still possess good pricing power and hike its leading-edge prices 5%-10% in 2027.
Idea
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ | +852 2848-7310 |
| Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Lucas Wang Research Associate Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
TSMC (2330.TW, 2330 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive |
| Price target | NT$2,888.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 22 |
| Shr price, close (Jun 29, 2026) | NT$2,370.00 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$61,449,313 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$62,280 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 66.25 | 107.56 | 143.01 | 177.30 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | 103.34 | 128.97 | 158.42 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 64.56 | 98.70 | 126.33 | 157.36 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 1,718 | 2,778 | 3,708 | 4,597 |
| $ bn) | ||||
| P/E | 23.4 | 22.1 | 16.6 | 13.4 |
| Div yld (%) | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
- ** = Based on consensus methodology
- § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
- e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.