PDF 原檔：260623_3189_景碩_citi_kinsus_original.pdf
原始內容
citivelocity.com
23 Jun 2026 10:46:11 ET │ 10 pages
Kinsus Interconnect Technology (3189.TW)
Strong unaudited May earnings likely supported by enhanced product mix in either ABF or BT substrate
CITI'S TAKE
Kinsus reported unaudited May EPS of NT$0.91 vs 2Q26 Citi/consensus EPS forecasts of NT$1.74/2.02. Assuming limited FX G/L or other non-op items, we think unaudited May earnings likely imply strong GM or OPM expansion from 2Q26 onward. As per our recent industry checks, we believe Kinsus' ABF substrate would benefit from higher UTR and enhanced product mix, along with ongoing ABF price hikes. For BT, we also observe other substrate makers would rather convert some parts of their BT production lines into ABF lines, given better profitability and longer order visibility. Thus, we think Kinsus' BT substrate might also surprise to the upside, given improving S/D status and price hikes. Considering these factors (i.e., rising Vera CPU orders for ABF and improving BT profitability), we see upside potential to Kinsus' GM profile/profitability in the coming quarters.
Buy
Price (23 Jun 26 13:30)
NT$727.00 NT$400.00
Target price
Expected share price return
-45.0%
Expected dividend yield
0.2% -44.7% NT$383,068M
Expected total return Market Cap
US$12,089M
Jack Chen AC
+886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com
Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093
nicholas.lai@citi.com
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations
Kinsus Interconnect Technology
Valuation
Our DCF-based target price for Kinsus is NT$400. Factoring in a 4.3% risk-free rate (YTD avg. 10-year government bond), a 7% risk premium and beta of 1.38, we calculate a WACC of 12.8%. Our DCF model assumes 1.5% long-term revenue growth and a 21.1% EBIT margin in 2028E with gradual margin improvement going forward. We believe the worst demand/profitability is over given recovery demand and more disciplined supply control by the industry. Our DCF-based target price equates to 42x/25X 2026/27E EPS and 5.0x/4.2x 2026/27E BVPS.
Risks
Key downside risks that could prevent the Kinsus stock from reaching our target price include: 1) weaker smartphone/smartphone demand.; 2) weaker-than-expected ABF demand momentum or market oversupply; and 3) lowerthan-expected contribution from AiP.
Kinsus Interconnect Technology
Fundamental Research
Analyst: Jack Chen
TWD
500
250
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2024
Rating Target Price Closing Price
11
*129.22
107.68
1|
1
1
Appendix A-1
Date
[2730-0ct-23 12:09:04
1
*105.29
90.17
17-Feb-25 17:29:49