260623_2454_聯發科_ms_MTK

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M June 23, 2026 01:35 PM GMT

MediaTek | Asia Pacific

Upside in both cloud and edge chip business; OW

We see better business development for AI ASICs. MediaTek's smartphone and WiFi chip price hikes should offset volume downside in smartphone and PC end markets.

MediaTek looks to be getting more sufficient ABF substrate supply for 3nm TPU:

In our recent AI supply chain tracker, we noted that MediaTek's 180k CoWoS-S booking implies ~3.6mn units of TPU 8t (ZebraFish), above our original 2.5mn shipment assumption - we had assumed ABF substrate shortages. However, it appears that MediaTek can assist Google in sourcing more T-Glass by visiting the Japanese fiber material vendor to secure supply. Hence, we see upside to our shipment and revenue assumptions for 3nm ZebraFish TPU - we now forecast 3mn units in 2027. According to our hardware analyst, Howard Kao, Zhen Ding (4958.TW) should be MediaTek's key second source for 3nm TPU besides Unimicron (3037.TW).

2nm TPU TAM is also growing: In our AI Summit, MediaTek management stated that its design service is capable of both training and inference design. Recently, investors have been asking whether MediaTek is involved in the design of 2nm TriggerFish TPU, intended for AI inference. Our supply chain checks suggest this could be true; thus, we raise our 2028 2nm TPU shipment forecast, to 3mn units. The TriggerFish chip has more features (I/O die upgrade, one more simulation die, and change of HBM controller to HBM4e), so we think MediaTek's 2nm TPU blended ASP could go higher. But again, the EMIB-T substrate yield should be the key risk to volume. As for the second CSP customer, we think both Meta (MTIA V5) and SpaceX (XPU attach and LEO satellite WiFi router) could be engaging. We hope this will be confirmed in 2H26 - there is still competition from other Taiwanese peers.

Edge device business - volume downside offset by ASP upside: During Computex, MediaTek reiterated its 'from edge to cloud' strategy and emphasized that edge devices (e.g., smartphones) remain its focus. We don't rule out the possibility that MediaTek could work with global AI LLM developers on further AI pin or AI smartphone projects. Our recent industry checks suggest that Chinese smartphone volume may drop 20% Y/Y (vs. our prior -15% projection) given memory cost impacts. However, MediaTek recently also informed customers that it may need to pass through rising chip costs (TSMC wafers, ASE packaging, KYEC testing, and substrate costs). Hence, we feel more comfortable with MediaTek's edge business.

Raise price target to NT$5,588: This implies P/Es 38x for 2027 and 18x for 2028e EPS, based on our increase estimates .We think that's still attractive vs. its 2025-28e revenue CAGR of >50%.

Idea

MediaTek (2454.TW, 2454 TT)

Top Pick

Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan

Stock Rating

Overweight Attractive NT$5,588.00 23 NT$4,535.00 NT$4,970.00- 1,130.00 1,565 NT$7,098,113 NT$6,882,584 NT$17,414

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