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260622_8046_南電_daiwa_NYPCB

更新 2026-06-23

PDF 原檔:260622_8046_南電_daiwa_NYPCB_original.pdf

原始內容

Taiwan

22 June 2026

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corp (8046 TT)

5

Daiwa

3

2

1

Buy

Sheng Cheng (886) 2 8758 6253 sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Allan Wang

(886) 2 8758 6249 allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (1.9) 19.8 30.1
Net profit change 10.8 32.5 49.1
Core EPS (FD) change 10.8 32.5 49.1

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

260622_8046_南電_daiwa_NYPCB_001
260622_8046_南電_daiwa_NYPCB_002
12-month range 107.50-1,005.00
Market cap (USDbn) 17.70
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 482.70
Shares outstanding (m) 646
Major shareholder Nan Ya Plastics Corp (67.0%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 58,494 102,461 138,301
Operating profit (m) 12,367 36,180 62,239
Net profit (m) 10,600 29,979 51,319
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 16.405 46.395 79.421
EPS change (%) 444.5 182.8 71.2
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 16.1 44.6 57.3
PER (x) 52.7 18.6 10.9
Dividend yield (%) 0.9 2.7 4.6
DPS 8.2 23.2 39.7
PBR (x) 10.0 7.0 4.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 27.8 12.3 7.2
ROE (%) 20.8 44.2 52.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Target price:

TWD1,444.00 (from TWD1,222.00)

Share price (22 Jun):

TWD864.00 | Up/downside: +67.1%

Stronger-than-expected margin profile

  • Margin set to beat expectations on cost inflation and capacity shortage
  • Likely no meaningful capacity expansion until end-2028
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; raising 12M TP to TWD1,444

What's new: ABF substrate QTD price levels are tracking stronger than our estimates, leading us to adjust up our gross margins accordingly.

What's the impact: Stronger-than-expected price hike for substrate in 2Q26E. Based on the feedback from the supply chain, we believe the ABF/BT substrate shortage has turned more fierce over the past 3 months given the resilient AI server demand and the rising demand from generalpurpose server demand since early-2026 driven by agentic AI. In 2026E, the components will likely see the highest shortage levels within the supply chain should remain high-end foundry capacity, memory, substrate, and PCB, based on the feedback within our coverage. Besides, we highlight the AI data centre outlook has turned more promising given recent positive developments at AI companies. Compute providers believe they can lease all computing power they build to end customers in the near term, which we believe will trigger strong inflation in key component prices over our forecast horizon. We believe substrates will be one of the sectors to ride on this mega cost inflation trend. One of NYPCB's key competitors stated it plans to hike prices quarterly by 7-8% in 2H26 (vs. previous comment of 58%). We believe this supports our view that the pricing environment has recently turned more positive vs. our original expectation. We believe NYPCB has room to hike its ASP more than this competitor, supported by its business strategy. Based on our analysis, NYPCB likely won't significantly expand its capacity before 2028, and we note NYPCB's client base is broader than its global peers (ie, revenue derived more from smaller clients vs. peers). As such, we forecast its price hikes for ABF/BT substrate will be larger than its competitors over 2026-28E. If we look back to previous substrate upcycles when ABF/BT substrate gross margins hit c.50/30% levels, the historical record could be broken this time considering two sequential price hikes in 2026E. The first was triggered by component shortages, and the second will likely be driven by substrate capacity shortage from 2H26. As such, we lift our GM assumptions over our forecast period by 2.6-5.3pp to factor in the favourable pricing trend. GM in 2Q26E should come in at 21.3%, higher than the market consensus of 18-20%.

What we recommend: We raise our 2026-28E EPS by 11-49% to factor in higher-than-expected price hikes from both raw materials and substrates. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call and raise our 12-month TP to TWD1,444 (from TWD1,222), based on an unchanged target PER multiple of 49x applied to our 1-year-forward EPS. We view our target PER multiple as undemanding as 2026-28E PEG (EPS CAGR at 120%) comes in at only 0.4x. Downside risks: weaker-than-expected demand for switches/PCs/smartphones.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 16-57% higher than Bloomberg consensus due likely to our more bullish view on the ABF/BT ASP increase.

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corp (8046 TT): 22 June 2026

NYPCB: Daiwa revenue and earnings forecasts revisions vs. the consensus

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 59,652 58,494 58,299 85,536 102,461 85,543 106,264 138,301 118,941
Diff (%) -1.9% 0.3% 19.8% 19.8% 30.1% 16.3%
Gross Margin (%) 21.5% 24.0% 20.6% 34.0% 37.1% 29.0% 41.1% 46.4% 30.5%
Operating profit 11,104 12,367 10,059 27,199 36,180 23,431 41,597 62,239 38,656
Op Margin (%) 18.6% 21.1% 17.3% 31.8% 35.3% 27.4% 39.1% 45.0% 32.5%
t profit 9,566 10,600 9,128 22,624 29,979 20,735 34,417 51,319 32,620
EPS (TWD) 14.80 16.41 14.13 35.01 46.39 32.09 53.26 79.42 50.48
Diff (%) 10.8% 16.1% 32.5% 44.6% 49.1% 57.3%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

NYPCB: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 11,177 13,083 16,203 18,032 19,723 23,764 28,977 29,996 40,173 58,494 102,461 138,301
COGS (9,406) (10,290) (11,899) (12,833) (13,340) (15,296) (18,095) (17,730) (36,526) (44,428) (64,461) (74,123)
Gross profit 1,771 2,793 4,303 5,199 6,383 8,468 10,883 12,267 3,647 14,066 38,000 64,179
Operating expenses (419) (425) (425) (430) (440) (450) (460) (470) 1,665 1,699 1,820 1,940
Operating profit 1,352 2,368 3,878 4,769 5,943 8,018 10,423 11,797 1,982 12,367 36,180 62,239
Non-operating profit 246 112 110 111 106 106 108 111 363 579 432 436
Pre-tax profit 1,598 2,480 3,988 4,880 6,049 8,125 10,531 11,908 2,346 12,946 36,612 62,675
Net profit 1,309 2,030 3,266 3,996 4,953 6,653 8,623 9,750 1,947 10,600 29,979 51,319
Net EPS (TWD) 2.03 3.14 5.05 6.18 7.67 10.30 13.34 15.09 3.0 16.4 46.4 79.4
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 15.8% 21.3% 26.6% 28.8% 32.4% 35.6% 37.6% 40.9% 9.1% 24.0% 37.1% 46.4%
Operating margin 12.1% 18.1% 23.9% 26.4% 30.1% 33.7% 36.0% 39.3% 4.9% 21.1% 35.3% 45.0%
Pre-tax margin 14.3% 19.0% 24.6% 27.1% 30.7% 34.2% 36.3% 39.7% 5.8% 22.1% 35.7% 45.3%
Net margin 11.7% 15.5% 20.2% 22.2% 25.1% 28.0% 29.8% 32.5% 4.8% 18.1% 29.3% 37.1%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 32% 37% 48% 62% 76% 82% 79% 66% 24% 46% 75% 35%
Gross profit 312% 263% 310% 272% 260% 203% 153% 136% 920% 286% 170% 69%
Operating profit 3986% 547% 525% 395% 339% 239% 169% 147% -257% 524% 193% 72%
Pre-tax profit 524% -1194% 340% 246% 278% 228% 164% 144% 1338% 452% 183% 71%
Net profit 531% -1183% 351% 232% 278% 228% 164% 144% 856% 445% 183% 71%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 0% 17% 24% 11% 9% 20% 22% 4%
Gross profit 27% 58% 54% 21% 23% 33% 29% 13%
Operating profit 40% 75% 64% 23% 25% 35% 30% 13%
Pre-tax profit 13% 55% 61% 22% 24% 34% 30% 13%
Net profit 9% 55% 61% 22% 24% 34% 30% 13%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

NYPCB: 1-year-forward PER bands

260622_8046_南電_daiwa_NYPCB_003

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

NYPCB: revenue breakdown by product

260622_8046_南電_daiwa_NYPCB_004

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Global PC shipment (m) 361 301 260 263 287 244 244 244
Regular server shipment (m) 14 15 12 14 16 18 22 26
Global smartphone shipment (m) 1,655 1,437 1,380 1,437 1,429 1,249 1,255 1,300

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
ABF 25,805 38,250 25,758 15,797 22,701 34,164 67,645 94,844
BT 15,987 16,905 9,393 9,880 12,153 19,901 30,475 39,203
Other Revenue 10,437 9,492 7,101 6,606 5,320 4,429 4,341 4,254
Total Revenue 52,228 64,647 42,253 32,283 40,173 58,494 102,461 138,301
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (37,346) (38,779) (34,075) (31,926) (36,526) (44,428) (64,461) (74,123)
SG&A (2,012) (2,293) (1,847) (1,624) (1,665) (1,699) (1,820) (1,940)
Other op.expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Operating profit 12,871 23,575 6,330 (1,267) 1,982 12,367 36,180 62,239
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (32) (22) (19) (18) (14) (15) (15) (15)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 257 1,809 796 1,447 377 594 446 451
Pre-tax profit 13,095 25,362 7,107 163 2,346 12,946 36,612 62,675
Tax (2,514) (5,946) (1,290) 41 (399) (2,346) (6,634) (11,356)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit (reported) 10,582 19,416 5,817 204 1,947 10,600 29,979 51,319
Net profit (adjusted) 10,582 19,416 5,817 204 1,947 10,600 29,979 51,319
EPS (reported)(TWD) 16.376 30.047 9.002 0.315 3.013 16.405 46.395 79.421
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 16.376 30.047 9.002 0.315 3.013 16.405 46.395 79.421
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 16.376 30.047 9.002 0.315 3.013 16.405 46.395 79.421
DPS (TWD) 10.000 18.000 5.500 1.000 1.000 8.203 23.197 39.711
EBIT 12,871 23,575 6,330 (1,267) 1,982 12,367 36,180 62,239
EBITDA 16,505 27,919 12,226 5,193 8,876 19,468 42,571 67,990

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 13,095 25,362 7,107 163 2,346 12,946 36,612 62,675
Depreciation and amortisation 3,634 4,344 5,896 6,460 6,894 7,101 6,391 5,752
Tax paid (2,514) (5,946) (1,290) 41 (399) (2,346) (6,634) (11,356)
Change in working capital (2,337) (2,805) 7,510 (1,779) (3,218) (6,153) (10,845) (5,594)
Other operational CF items 4,050 11,352 (2,709) (2,725) (2,596) 0 0 0
Cash flow from operations 15,929 32,307 16,513 2,160 3,027 11,548 25,524 51,477
Capex (8,451) (16,922) (11,779) (2,379) (2,422) (2,543) (2,416) (2,295)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other investing CF items 3,061 53 (471) (223) 700 7 24 15
Cash flow from investing (5,391) (16,869) (12,251) (2,602) (1,723) (2,537) (2,393) (2,280)
Change in debt 983 (1,981) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (2,197) (6,462) (11,631) (3,554) (646) (646) (5,300) (14,989)
Other financing CF items (1,678) (222) (180) (289) (241) (413) 0 0
Cash flow from financing (2,892) (8,665) (11,811) (3,843) (887) (1,059) (5,300) (14,989)
Forex effect/others (25) 76 (166) 436 (309) (72) (76) (85)
Change in cash 7,621 6,850 (7,714) (3,849) 109 7,881 17,755 34,122
Free cash flow 7,478 15,386 4,734 (219) 605 9,005 23,108 49,181

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corp (8046 TT): 22 June 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 13,194 20,044 12,567 8,587 8,706 16,587 34,342 68,465
Inventory 5,348 5,803 3,896 4,101 5,068 6,680 9,214 9,435
Accounts receivable 11,062 14,893 6,898 6,996 9,552 15,729 25,915 31,598
Other current assets 572 570 1,113 991 296 296 296 296
Total current assets 30,176 41,310 24,474 20,675 23,623 39,292 69,768 109,794
Fixed assets 25,668 39,926 45,476 41,804 37,085 32,527 28,553 25,097
Goodwill & intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 502 514 487 460 500 494 470 455
Total assets 56,345 81,750 70,437 62,938 61,207 72,313 98,791 135,346
Short-term debt 1,669 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 6,710 8,895 5,808 3,672 3,979 5,614 7,490 7,800
Other current liabilities 2,137 4,794 3,292 2,992 3,210 3,210 3,210 3,210
Total current liabilities 10,516 13,689 9,100 6,664 7,189 8,825 10,700 11,010
Long-term debt 227 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current liabilities 5,123 14,339 13,429 10,824 7,896 7,896 7,896 7,896
Total liabilities 15,866 28,028 22,530 17,488 15,085 16,720 18,596 18,906
Share capital 6,462 6,462 6,462 6,462 6,462 6,462 6,462 6,462
Reserves/R.E./others 34,017 47,261 41,446 38,989 39,661 49,131 73,733 109,979
Shareholders' equity 40,479 53,723 47,908 45,450 46,123 55,593 80,195 116,440
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity & liabilities 56,345 81,750 70,437 62,938 61,207 72,313 98,791 135,346
EV 546,990 538,243 545,720 549,700 549,581 541,700 523,945 489,823
Net debt/(cash) (11,298) (20,044) (12,567) (8,587) (8,706) (16,587) (34,342) (68,465)
BVPS (TWD) 62.645 83.141 74.142 70.339 71.379 86.035 124.109 180.202

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 35.6 23.8 (34.6) (23.6) 24.4 45.6 75.2 35.0
EBITDA (YoY) 134.4 69.2 (56.2) (57.5) 70.9 119.3 118.7 59.7
Operating profit (YoY) 213.3 83.2 (73.1) n.a. n.a. 523.8 192.6 72.0
Net profit (YoY) 188.6 83.5 (70.0) (96.5) 855.6 444.5 182.8 71.2
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 188.6 83.5 (70.0) (96.5) 855.6 444.5 182.8 71.2
Gross-profit margin 28.5 40.0 19.4 1.1 9.1 24.0 37.1 46.4
EBITDA margin 31.6 43.2 28.9 16.1 22.1 33.3 41.5 49.2
Operating-profit margin 24.6 36.5 15.0 n.a. 4.9 21.1 35.3 45.0
Net profit margin 20.3 30.0 13.8 0.6 4.8 18.1 29.3 37.1
ROAE 29.1 41.2 11.4 0.4 4.3 20.8 44.2 52.2
ROAA 21.0 28.1 7.6 0.3 3.1 15.9 35.0 43.8
ROCE 34.0 49.1 12.5 n.a. 4.3 24.3 53.3 63.3
ROIC 36.6 57.4 15.0 n.a. 4.4 26.5 69.8 n.a
Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Effective tax rate 19.2 23.4 18.2 0.0 17.0 18.1 18.1 18.1
Accounts receivable (days) 70.7 73.3 94.1 78.5 75.2 78.9 74.2 75.9
Current ratio (x) 2.9 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.3 4.5 6.5 10.0
Net interest cover (x) 406.2 1,128.2 367.9 10.3 170.8 852.3 2,522.4 4,252.9
Net dividend payout 61.1 59.9 61.2 n.a. 33.2 50.0 50.0 50.0
Free cash flow yield 1.3 2.8 0.8 n.a. 0.1 1.6 4.1 8.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Nan Ya PCB originated as one of the business divisions of Nan Ya Plastics Corporation before transforming into a subsidiary in 1997, specialising in the manufacturing of printed circuit boards (PCBs) and integrated circuit (IC) substrates. The company's primary end applications include networking (c.50%), PCs (c.20%), consumer electronics (c.10%), automotive (c.10%) and other sectors. Its manufacturing facilities are located in Taiwan and China.

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corp (8046 TT): 22 June 2026

Daiwa

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board Corp (8046 TT): 22 June 2026

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
Executive/board quality 2 Nan Ya PCB's board of directors (BoD) is responsible for overseeing the company's operations and ensuring adherence to corporate governance principles. The board comprises individuals with diverse expertise, contributing to effective decision-making and strategic planning. The company emphasizes the importance of corporate governance as a set of processes, customs, policies, laws, and institutions affecting the way the corporation is directed, administered, or controlled. Principal stakeholders include stockholders, management, and the board of directors, among others.
Capital management 2 Nan Ya PCB maintains a prudent approach to capital management, ensuring financial stability and the availability of resources necessary for operational and strategic initiatives. The company's financial statements reflect a solid capital structure, supporting its growth and sustainability objectives.
Related party & transaction 1 The company adheres to strict policies regarding related party transactions to maintain transparency and fairness. Such transactions are conducted under terms comparable to those with independent third parties and are disclosed in financial reports to ensure compliance with regulatory standards and corporate governance best practices. For example, the company's consolidated financial statements provide details on transactions with related parties, ensuring transparency and accountability.
Supply chain management 1 Nan Ya PCB is committed to sustainable supply chain management, emphasizing environmental protection, procurement policies, and social responsibility. The company has established a comprehensive procurement policy that integrates sustainability considerations, ensuring that suppliers adhere to ethical standards and environmental regulations. This commitment is part of the company's broader sustainable responsibility policy, which includes areas such as corporate governance, environmental protection, and social welfare.
Data security 1 While specific details on Nan Ya PCB's data security measures are not extensively disclosed in the available sources, the company recognizes the importance of information security in its operations. As part of its corporate governance framework, Nan Ya PCB is likely to implement standard data protection practices to safeguard sensitive information and ensure compliance with relevant regulations. Stakeholders are encouraged to consult the company's official communications or contact the company directly for detailed information on data security policies.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 7 May 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Daiwa

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-07-02)

回補驗證:僅涵蓋已被 lib 頁嵌入的圖片,非全量驗證。

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
260622_8046_南電_daiwa_NYPCB_003.png 44KB 真資料圖 股價與本益比倍數沿革圖,Y軸(TWD)0-1400,深藍色實際股價折線疊加10x/18x/30x/45x四條本益比倍數線,X軸Jun-19至Jun-26
260622_8046_南電_daiwa_NYPCB_004.png 19KB 真資料圖 產品組合佔比堆疊長條圖,Y軸0-100%,分BT/ABF/PCB三色區塊,X軸為2024/2025/2026E/2027E/2028E五個年度,圖上標示各區塊百分比數字