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260616_daiwa_emc

更新 2026-06-20

PDF 原檔:260616_daiwa_emc_original.pdf

原始內容

Taiwan

Elite Material (2383 TT)

Target price:

TWD6,022.00 (from TWD5,234.00)

Share price (15 Jun): TWD5,030.00 | Up/downside:

+19.7%

Solid position to ride on CCL spec upgrades

  • Spec upgrade roadmap debate only short-term noise
  • EMC to retain leading position in CCL with full range of solutions
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; lifting 12M TP to TWD6,022

What's new: We provide our latest view on EMC.

What's the impact: On-track spec upgrade trend. We believe the spec upgrade trend remains the key growth driver for CCL vendors. As per EMC management, above M7-grade (including M7) revenue in 4Q25 was over 50% and would likely reach 70% by end-2026. Before 3Q25, EMC used M6 as the broader line to distinguish AI-related (or high-end) CCL, indicating the ongoing spec upgrade driven by high-speed data transmission requirements. We believe from 2026, M7-M9 would be the mainstream materials, while mainstream materials would gradually migrate to M8-M10 from 2027. Based on our assumption, CCL vendors should benefit by c.30% ASP hikes from every generation upgrade, which would be a key growth story for EMC. As in our previous note on TUC, we further lift our CCL ASP by c.10% from 2H26 to reflect the increasing cost from resin, which is the key reason why we lift our earnings forecasts by 9-26%.

CCL grade migration roadmap. In the near term, we believe there are several debates on the CCL migration roadmap, with Quartz glass (Q-glass) fibre and polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) resin at the centre of discussion. To meet the high-end CCL requirement on electrical properties, Q-glass and PFTE resin became key materials in 2025 given the original M8 resin (ie, hydrocarbon resin) took some time to migrate to M9/M10 resin (still hydrocarbon). We believe the M9/10 resin has gone under certification in 2026, which then dissipates the importance of Q-glass fibre and PTFE resin. Also, EMC has devoted its majority resources to test different formulas between advanced hydrocarbon resin/PTFE resin and fibres (including low dk2, low dk3 glass, and Q glass). In fact, we believe the cost performance ratio for reaching M9/10 CCL requirements by adopting advanced hydrocarbon resins might be the easier way. However, considering the potential shortage of high-end glass fibre, we believe end customers will likely verify multiple solutions to meet end demand. In sum, we see EMC maintaining its lead position on advanced CCL with several solutions (different combinations of resin, glass fibre, and copper foil) and >50% market share in AI server and high-speed switches. Of note, EMC will also ramp up c.0.9m (c.10% capacity) of ABF CCL in 2027E, which could be another key ASP driver.

What we recommend: We reaffirm our Buy (1) rating. We raise our 12month TP to TWD6,022, based on a higher 48x PER (vs. prior: 43x) on 1year-forward EPS due to the steeper earnings trajectory growth. Key downside risk: weaker-than-expected AI server demand.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 2-4% below the Bloomberg consensus, likely due to our higher opex ratio assumptions.

15 June 2026

5

Daiwa

3

2

1

Buy

Sheng Cheng

(886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Stacy Lin (886) 2 8758 6252 stacy.lin@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 6.5 10.3 12.3
Net profit change 9 19.4 26.4
Core EPS (FD) change 8.9 19.3 26.3

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

260616_daiwa_emc_001
12-month range 834.00-5,505.00
Market cap (USDbn) 57.00
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 390.08
Shares outstanding (m) 358
Major shareholder Yu Chang Investment Co Ltd (7.4%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 168,675 270,192 394,466
Operating profit (m) 41,090 75,568 117,298
Net profit (m) 31,867 58,978 91,549
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 88.877 164.489 255.329
EPS change (%) 113.3 85.1 55.2
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (1.5) (3.7) (1.7)
PER (x) 56.6 30.6 19.7
Dividend yield (%) 1.1 2.0 3.0
DPS 53.4 98.8 153.3
PBR (x) 26.2 16.5 10.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 41.5 23.0 14.8
ROE (%) 53.4 66.1 66.3

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

EMC: Daiwa's revenue and earnings forecast revisions

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 158,433 168,675 166,386 244,880 270,192 271,800 351,176 394,466 394,150
Diff (%) 6.5% 1.4% 10.3% -0.6% 12.3% 0.1%
Gross margin (%) 31.9% 32.1% 32.2% 33.9% 35.2% 35.0% 34.5% 36.7% 35.5%
Operating profit 37,878 41,090 41,457 63,520 75,568 78,948 93,000 117,298 117,147
Operating margin (%) 23.9% 24.4% 24.9% 25.9% 28.0% 29.0% 26.5% 29.7% 29.7%
Net profit 29,244 31,867 32,072 49,415 58,978 60,185 72,434 91,549 93,070
EPS (TWD) 81.61 88.88 90.26 137.90 164.49 170.78 202.14 255.33 259.67
Diff (%) 8.9% -1.5% 19.3% -3.7% 26.3% -1.7%

Source: Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

EMC: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 33,067 42,246 44,778 48,584 56,111 64,103 70,711 79,267 94,261 168,675 270,192 394,466
COGS -23,338 -28,913 -30,135 -32,209 -36,769 -41,680 -45,708 -50,901 -66,141 -114,594 -175,058 -249,555
Gross profit 9,729 13,334 14,643 16,375 19,342 22,423 25,003 28,366 28,120 54,081 95,134 144,911
Operating expenses 2,601 3,295 3,403 3,692 4,152 4,615 5,091 5,707 9,012 12,991 19,566 27,613
Operating profit 7,128 10,038 11,240 12,683 15,190 17,807 19,912 22,658 19,108 41,090 75,568 117,298
Non-operating profit 66 -35 37 40 41 42 -20 -24 -232 108 39 66
Pre-tax profit 7,194 10,004 11,277 12,723 15,231 17,849 19,892 22,634 18,876 41,197 75,607 117,364
Net profit 5,340 7,805 8,798 9,925 11,882 13,924 15,517 17,656 14,649 31,867 58,978 91,549
Net EPS (TWD) 14.90 21.78 24.55 27.70 33.16 38.86 43.31 49.27 41.7 88.9 164.5 255.3
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 29.4% 31.6% 32.7% 33.7% 34.5% 35.0% 35.4% 35.8% 29.8% 32.1% 35.2% 36.7%
Operating margin 21.6% 23.8% 25.1% 26.1% 27.1% 27.8% 28.2% 28.6% 20.3% 24.4% 28.0% 29.7%
Pre-tax margin 21.8% 23.7% 25.2% 26.2% 27.1% 27.8% 28.1% 28.6% 20.0% 24.4% 28.0% 29.8%
Net margin 16.1% 18.5% 19.6% 20.4% 21.2% 21.7% 21.9% 22.3% 15.5% 18.9% 21.8% 23.2%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 53% 88% 78% 95% 70% 52% 58% 63% 46% 79% 60% 46%
Gross profit 48% 95% 93% 130% 99% 68% 71% 73% 56% 92% 76% 52%
Operating profit 57% 116% 125% 157% 113% 77% 77% 79% 57% 115% 84% 55%
Pre-tax profit 54% 124% 120% 175% 112% 78% 76% 78% 56% 113% 84% 55%
Net profit 54% 124% 122% 166% 123% 78% 76% 78% 53% 113% 85% 55%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue 33% 28% 6% 9% 15% 14% 10% 12%
Gross profit 37% 37% 10% 12% 18% 16% 12% 13%
Operating profit 44% 41% 12% 13% 20% 17% 12% 14%
Pre-tax profit 56% 39% 13% 13% 20% 17% 11% 14%
Net profit 43% 46% 13% 13% 20% 17% 11% 14%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

EMC: 1-year forward PER bands

260616_daiwa_emc_002

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Elite Material (2383 TT): 15 June 2026

EMC: revenue breakdown by product

260616_daiwa_emc_003

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Global PC shipment (m) 361 301 260 263 287 244 244 244
Regular server shipment (m) 14 15 12 14 16 18 22 26
Global smartphone shipment (m) 1,655 1,437 1,381 1,439 1,429 1,249 1,255 1,300

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Infra 12,089 15,289 21,125 39,046 64,617 134,338 232,735 354,444
Handset 19,413 16,378 14,716 17,033 20,538 24,005 26,303 27,549
Other Revenue 6,998 7,005 5,455 8,297 9,106 10,333 11,155 12,473
Total Revenue 38,500 38,673 41,296 64,377 94,261 168,675 270,192 394,466
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (28,431) (28,962) (29,964) (46,407) (66,141) (114,594) (175,058) (249,555)
SG&A (2,379) (2,532) (2,717) (4,048) (6,320) (9,002) (13,631) (19,244)
Other op.expenses (767) (953) (1,269) (1,770) (2,692) (3,990) (5,935) (8,368)
Operating profit 6,923 6,225 7,346 12,152 19,108 41,090 75,568 117,298
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (76) (184) (319) (459) (476) (499) (496) (494)
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 66 255 392 440 244 607 535 560
Pre-tax profit 6,912 6,296 7,420 12,133 18,876 41,197 75,607 117,364
Tax (1,412) (1,220) (1,931) (2,564) (4,231) (9,336) (16,634) (25,820)
Min. int./pref. div./others (7) (3) 0 9 4 6 5 5
Net profit (reported) 5,493 5,073 5,488 9,578 14,649 31,867 58,978 91,549
Net profit (adjusted) 5,493 5,073 5,488 9,578 14,649 31,867 58,978 91,549
EPS (reported)(TWD) 16.500 15.238 16.349 27.807 41.667 88.935 164.596 255.495
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 16.500 15.238 16.349 27.807 41.667 88.935 164.596 255.495
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 16.472 14.798 15.797 27.552 41.667 88.877 164.489 255.329
DPS (TWD) 10.000 8.407 9.979 16.575 24.996 53.359 98.758 153.297
EBIT 6,923 6,225 7,346 12,152 19,108 41,090 75,568 117,298
EBITDA 7,642 7,000 8,648 13,921 20,958 43,804 79,282 122,012

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 6,912 6,296 7,420 12,133 18,876 41,197 75,607 117,364
Depreciation and amortisation 719 774 1,302 1,769 1,849 2,714 3,714 4,714
Tax paid (1,412) (1,220) (1,931) (2,564) (4,231) (9,336) (16,634) (25,820)
Change in working capital 7,481 (4,810) 12,237 16,078 25,148 52,606 98,933 71,286
Other operational CF items (9,679) 6,457 (16,138) (20,153) (29,674) (78,876) (126,121) (93,183)
Cash flow from operations 4,022 7,498 2,890 7,263 11,968 8,306 35,500 74,361
Capex (2,470) (6,493) (3,281) (5,867) (9,490) (18,664) (21,463) (24,683)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (26) 0 6 13 (18) 1 (9) (4)
Other investing CF items (122) (103) (782) (47) (380) (8) 0 0
Cash flow from investing (2,618) (6,596) (4,057) (5,901) (9,888) (18,671) (21,472) (24,687)
Change in debt 1,719 2,732 2,954 5,296 8,721 11,241 9,530 9,748
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (2,333) (3,333) (2,830) (3,439) (5,894) (8,957) (19,120) (35,387)
Other financing CF items 194 3,289 (15) 2,259 (51) 3,109 0 0
Cash flow from financing (420) 2,687 109 4,116 2,776 5,394 (9,590) (25,639)
Forex effect/others (73) 211 (126) 251 163 800 786 700
Change in cash 910 3,802 (1,185) 5,729 5,020 (4,172) 5,224 24,735
Free cash flow 1,551 1,005 (391) 1,397 2,478 (10,358) 14,037 49,678

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Elite Material (2383 TT): 15 June 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 6,642 10,444 9,259 14,989 20,008 15,836 21,061 45,796
Inventory 5,465 4,236 6,135 9,437 16,752 26,597 44,965 56,283
Accounts receivable 13,274 11,683 17,327 25,897 36,115 69,085 113,779 149,052
Other current assets 463 217 955 1,171 1,106 1,110 1,110 1,110
Total current assets 25,844 26,580 33,675 51,494 73,980 112,629 180,914 252,240
Fixed assets 10,721 16,803 19,746 24,568 33,933 51,105 68,854 88,822
Goodwill & intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other non-current assets 0 0 6 18 0 (1) 8 12
Total assets 36,565 43,382 53,427 76,080 107,913 163,733 249,776 341,075
Short-term debt 2,717 5,299 7,866 7,781 11,264 15,405 19,226 22,909
Accounts payable 10,969 9,802 14,491 21,199 33,285 55,816 91,689 116,384
Other current liabilities 799 659 716 1,202 1,682 4,098 4,098 4,098
Total current liabilities 14,485 15,760 23,073 30,182 46,231 75,319 115,013 143,391
Long-term debt 721 4,218 2,109 8,772 8,219 15,799 21,508 27,573
Other non-current liabilities 1,585 1,330 1,435 2,032 3,027 3,726 3,726 3,726
Total liabilities 16,791 21,308 26,617 40,986 57,477 94,844 140,247 174,690
Share capital 3,329 3,329 3,432 3,466 3,583 3,583 3,583 3,583
Reserves/R.E./others 16,424 18,745 23,378 31,644 46,872 65,332 105,977 162,839
Shareholders' equity 19,753 22,075 26,809 35,111 50,456 68,915 109,560 166,422
Minority interests 21 0 0 (17) (20) (26) (31) (37)
Total equity & liabilities 36,565 43,382 53,427 76,080 107,913 163,733 249,776 341,075
EV 1,799,172 1,801,429 1,803,071 1,803,902 1,801,809 1,817,696 1,821,996 1,807,004
Net debt/(cash) (3,203) (926) 716 1,564 (525) 15,368 19,673 4,686
BVPS (TWD) 59.332 66.306 79.860 101.931 143.516 192.329 305.760 464.451

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 41.5 0.4 6.8 55.9 46.4 78.9 60.2 46
EBITDA (YoY) 44.4 (8.4) 23.6 61 50.5 109.0 81 53.9
Operating profit (YoY) 47.8 (10.1) 18.0 65.4 57.2 115.0 83.9 55.2
Net profit (YoY) 48.9 (7.7) 8.2 74.5 52.9 117.5 85.1 55.2
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 48.9 (10.2) 6.7 74.4 51.2 113.3 85.1 55.2
Gross-profit margin 26.2 25.1 27.4 27.9 29.8 32.1 35.2 36.7
EBITDA margin 19.8 18.1 20.9 21.6 22.2 26.0 29.3 30.9
Operating-profit margin 18.0 16.1 17.8 18.9 20.3 24.4 28 29.7
Net profit margin 14.3 13.1 13.3 14.9 15.5 18.9 21.8 23.2
ROAE 30.1 24.3 22.5 30.9 34.2 53.4 66.1 66.3
ROAA 17.1 12.7 11.3 14.8 15.9 23.5 28.5 31
ROCE 33.2 22.7 21.5 27.5 31.4 48.3 60.4 63.9
ROIC 37.6 26.6 22.3 29.9 34.3 47.4 55.2 60.9
Net debt to equity net cash net cash 2.7 4.5 net cash 22.3 18 2.8
Effective tax rate 20.4 19.4 26.0 21.1 22.4 22.7 22 22
Accounts receivable (days) 110.0 117.8 128.2 122.5 120.1 113.8 123.5 121.6
Current ratio (x) 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8
Net interest cover (x) 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4
Net dividend payout 60.6 55.2 61.1 59.6 60.0 60.0 60 60
Free cash flow yield 0.1 0.1 n.a. 0.1 0.1 n.a. 0.8 2.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Established in 1992 and listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange in 1996, Elite Material Co. (EMC) is a leading manufacturer of copper clad laminate (CCL) and prepreg (PP), and a mass lamination foundry for PCB players. The company is also the world's largest green (halogen-free) CCL supplier.

Elite Material (2383 TT): 15 June 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 2 EMC has incorporated 3 independent members into its 7-people board of directors in pursuit of better governance. Besides, EMC's Chairman and CEO roles are held separately, which reduce the risk of conflict of interest and excessive concentration of power. In addition, the company has 2 committees: the Audit Committee and the Remuneration Committee to assist the Board of Directors in performing their supervisory duties
G Capital management 1 EMC has declared a dividend payout ratio of over 50% in the past ten years, which we view as a shareholder-friendly dividend policy.
G Related party & transaction 2 Revenue from related parties accounted for <1% of total revenue, and the purchases from related parties comprised <1% of cost of sales. We see limited risk from related-party transactions
S Product design & lifecycle management 2 EMC strives to create a safe and healthy workplace for every employee. EMC has introduced the occupational safety and health management systems (ISO 45001) in its Headquarters and all production plants to reduce the workplace hazards and enhance its safety and health management level.
S GHG emissions 2 To ensure data security, EMC has formulated its Directions for Information Security Management based on three principles for information security management, which are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. In 2023, there were no incidents involving the violation of information-security-related laws and regulations, and no information security incidents occurred.
Company specific Company specific Management Analyst comments
E GHG emissions 2 EMC follows ISO 14061-1 2018 standards to conduct GHG emissions inventory and propose feasible solutions for greenhouse gas reduction. Besides, a third-party inspection agency is appointed to perform external verification.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 30 Jul 2025

Source: Daiwa, Company

Elite Material (2383 TT): 15 June 2026

Daiwa

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-07-02)

回補驗證:僅涵蓋已被 lib 頁嵌入的圖片,非全量驗證。

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
260616_daiwa_emc_001.png 23KB 真資料圖 台光電(Elite Mate)股價走勢圖,藍線為股價(TWD,左軸),橘色虛線為相對台灣加權指數表現(%,右軸),時間軸 Jun-25 至 Mar-26
260616_daiwa_emc_002.png 30KB 真資料圖 股價與本益比區間圖,深藍線為股價,灰/橘/淺藍虛線分別標示 6x/18x/30x/44x 本益比帶,時間軸 Jun-19 至 Jun-26
260616_daiwa_emc_003.png 24KB 真資料圖 收入結構堆疊長條圖,Infra(深藍)/Handset(灰)/Automotive-Others(淺藍)三類占比,橫軸 2024 至 2028E,Infra 占比標示由 61% 升至 90%