PDF 原檔：260528_2382_廣達_ms_quanta_original.pdf
原始內容
M May 28, 2026 11:40 AM GMT
Quanta Computer Inc. | Asia Pacific
Asia AI Summit 2026 Takeaways
Key Takeaways
- NB shipments are guided to be flat to slightly up q/q in 2Q; full-year NB shipments guidance is unchanged at down in high single digits to double digits y/ y.
- AI server sales will grow in double digits q/q in 2Q; the preliminary view on 3Q is that GB300 shipments will likely plateau without sharp declines.
- 4Q will likely be the platform transition period (from GB300 to VR200).
- AI server sales doubled y/y in CY25, and are guided to grow in triple digits y/y again in CY26.
- General server sales guidance: up in double digits y/y in CY26 (unchanged vs. 1Q earnings call), but units to grow y/y as well.
- NB made up <15% of the revenue mix in 1Q, and will remain below 20% for the full year.
- AI server capacity will double by end-2026 vs. end-2025, primarily in Thailand and the US. Hence, Quanta's capex guidance is NT$30bn.
- VR200 rack shipments should be limited in CY26, with some sampling shipments expected to start in 3Q26. The majority of shipments will happen in CY27.
- Some customers are willing to accept the consignment model to alleviate ODMs' dual burdens of c apex expansion and working capital pressures, thereby preventing potential supply constraints and roadmap delays from longer investment cycles (owing to lack of funds).
- NVIDIA is still looking to standardize the computing trays for Rubin, but Quanta is not sure if the CSP customers will accept. NVIDIA might run the risk of losing more share to the ASIC camp if it insists on standardizing the trays.
Update
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ | Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ | Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ | Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Howard Kao | Howard Kao | Howard Kao | Howard Kao |
| Equity Analyst Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com | Equity Analyst Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com | Equity Analyst Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2989 |
| Sharon Shih | Sharon Shih | Sharon Shih | |
| Equity Analyst | Equity Analyst | Equity Analyst | |
| Sharon.Shih@morganstanley.com | Sharon.Shih@morganstanley.com | Sharon.Shih@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2865 |
| Irene Yen | Irene Yen | Irene Yen | |
| Research Associate | Research Associate | Research Associate | |
| Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com | Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com | Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2869 |
| Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW, 2382 TT) | Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW, 2382 TT) | Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW, 2382 TT) | |
| Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan | Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan | Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan | |
| Stock Rating | Overweight | ||
| Industry View | Industry View | Industry View | In-Line |
| Price target | Price target | Price target | NT$385.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | 25 |
| Shr price, close (May 28, 2026) | Shr price, close (May 28, 2026) | Shr price, close (May 28, 2026) | NT$308.50 |
| 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | NT$352.50-252.50 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 3,862 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | US$37,962 |
| EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | US$40,027 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$5,874 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e 12/28e |
| EPS (NT$)** | 19.42 | 24.66 | 28.80 30.80 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 18.43 | 23.57 | 28.61 32.85 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ bn) | 2,123.7 | 3,582.6 | 3,937.2 4,276.9 |
| EBITDA (NT$ bn) | 99.8 | 135.1 | 158.3 169.0 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 75.0 | 95.2 | 111.2 118.9 |
| $ bn) | |||
| P/E | 14.0 | 12.5 | 10.7 10.0 |
| P/BV | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.2 2.7 |
| RNOA (%) | 27.9 | 31.5 | 23.7 23.4 |
| ROE (%) | 32.6 | 37.2 | 35.8 31.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.2 | 10.3 | 8.6 7.8 |
| Div yld (%) | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.0 4.3 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | (2.4) | (7.4) | 5.9 6.8 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | 31.3 | 67.4 | 48.5 33.4 |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.