SanDisk(SNDK)— 2026-10-29 FY27Q1 法說會逐字稿(英文原文+中譯)
日期:2026-10-29(美國時間盤後);與談人:CEO David Goeckeler、CFO Luis Visoso、IR VP Ivan Donaldson 逐字稿為 earnings call 音檔 AI 轉寫,英文原文與中譯並列;專有名詞與數字以公司 press release/10-Q 為準。中譯與英文原文不一致時以英文為準;部分中譯段落與英文有位移(Presentation 段),不影響內容。
校正紀錄
本檔為 AI 語音轉寫,落地前已校正下列轉寫誤植;未列出者為原文。 - 「guidance range of 10.3% to $10.8 billion」(CFO,00:11:05)→ $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion(量綱錯誤;中譯同步改為 103 億至 108 億美元) - 「bids」→「bits」(共 6 處;位元出貨量被轉寫成投標,例:「about 50% of our bits are under 6M for 2027 and about two-thirds for 2028」、「last quarter our bits were down 19% sequentially」、「percentage of bits allocated to 6Ms」;中譯「投標」3 處同步改為「位元」) - 00:45:28 Jim Schneider 問題「expect Q1 to be sequentially up, down, or flat」→ fiscal Q3(3 月季;同段 CFO 反問「You mean fiscal Q3?」,答「Yes, the March quarter」) - 財務交叉驗算:資料中心 48.0 億+Edge 58.4 億+消費 3.97 億=約 110.4 億,與營收約 110 億相符;非 GAAP 毛利率 85.1% 減營業費用率 4.7% 得營益率約 80.4%,與口述一致;EPS 49.51 × 稀釋股數 1.54 億股≈76.2 億美元非 GAAP 淨利;SBC 9,100 萬占營收 0.8%、資本支出 3.78 億占營收 3.4%,與口述一致;回購 320 萬股/50 億美元,均價約 US$1,560 - 財測驗算:拆分前 EPS 55–57 美元,稀釋股數 1.51 億股;8 股拆 1 股後 6.88–7.13 美元、12.08 億股(55/8=6.875、57/8=7.125、151×8=1,208),與口述一致 - 保留原樣:CEO 稱資料中心「17x YoY」,分析師稱「almost 20 times」,口徑不同,不改 - 保留原樣:00:39:22 出現孤立說話者標記「Mehdi Hosseini - SIG」(實為排隊轉場,下一位提問者為 Karl Ackerman),不影響內容;00:30:10「Kurnas」為對與談人名字的轉寫誤植,姓名類不改 - 保留原樣:QLC 企業級產品代號「Stargate」(00:49:10)未改
Presentation
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:00:00)Good afternoon, and welcome to SanDisk's first quarter fiscal year 2027 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. If you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing star, then zero on your telephone keypad. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, press star, then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star, then two. Please note that today's event is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the floor over to Ivan Donaldson, Vice President of Investor Relations.
(00:00:00)下午好,歡迎參加 SanDisk 2027 財政年度第一季度的收益電話會議。所有參與者將處於僅聆聽模式。如果您需要協助,請按下電話鍵盤上的星號,然後按零,來通知會議專家。在今天的簡報結束後,將有機會提問。要提問,請按下電話鍵盤上的星號,然後按一。要撤回您的問題,請按下電話鍵盤上的星號,然後按二。請注意,今天的活動正在錄音。此時,我想將話筒交給 SanDisk 投資者關係副總裁 Ivan Donaldson。
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:00:41)Please go ahead.
(00:00:41)請開始。
Ivan Donaldson - SanDisk, Investor Relation
(00:00:41)Before we begin, please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements based on management's current assumptions and expectations, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements include expectations for our technology and product portfolio, business plans and performance, capital allocation priorities, market trends and opportunities, and our financial results. We assume no obligation to update these statements. Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings for more information on risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.
(00:00:41)在我們開始之前,請注意,今天的討論將包含基於管理層當前假設和預期的前瞻性聲明,這些聲明受到各種風險和不確定性的影響。這些前瞻性聲明包括我們的技術和產品組合、商業計劃和表現、資本配置優先事項、市場趨勢和機會,以及我們的財務結果。我們不承擔更新這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性,請參閱我們的 10-K 表格年度報告和其他 SEC 文件。
Ivan Donaldson - SanDisk, Investor Relation
(00:01:26)We will also reference non-GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations between non-GAAP and comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the written materials posted in the investor relations section of our website. With that, I will turn the call over to David.
(00:01:26)今天我們還將提及非 GAAP 財務指標。非 GAAP 與可比 GAAP 財務指標之間的調整已包含在我們網站投資者關係部分的書面材料中。有了這些,我將把電話交給 David。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:01:42)Thanks, Ivan. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining SanDisk's fiscal first quarter 2027 earnings call. We began fiscal year 2027 with another strong quarter, creating value for customers and shareholders, delivering results above guidance. Our strategy is working, and our execution is delivering strong results. Revenue for the quarter was $11 billion, non-GAAP gross margin was 85.1%, and non-GAAP earnings per share were $49.51. We generated $5.7 billion of adjusted free cash flow and returned $5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases.
(00:01:42)謝謝你,Ivan。下午好,感謝您參加 SanDisk 2027 財政年度第一季度的收益電話會議。我們以另一個強勁的季度開始了 2027 財政年度,為客戶和股東創造價值,提供超出指導的結果。我們的策略正在奏效,我們的執行力帶來了強勁的結果。本季度的收入為 110 億美元,非 GAAP 毛利率為 85.1%,非 GAAP 每股收益為 49.51 美元。我們產生了 57 億美元的調整後自由現金流,並通過股票回購向股東返還了 50 億美元。我們對業務長期發展的信心基於三個持久的優勢:技術領導力、深厚的客戶夥伴關係和嚴謹的財務管理。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:02:30)Our confidence in the long-term trajectory of the business is grounded in three enduring strengths: technology leadership, deep customer partnerships, and disciplined financial management. These strengths are reinforced by a structural increase in NAND demand, driven particularly by AI, and by customer signals extending beyond fiscal year 2030, through our new business model, our NBM partnerships. Together, they position us to invest confidently in our technology roadmap, strengthen and expand customer relationships, and deliver growing, durable free cash flow while returning capital to shareholders.
(00:02:30)這些優勢受到 NAND 需求結構性增長的支持,特別是由 AI 驅動,並且客戶信號延伸至 2030 財政年度以後,通過我們的新商業模式,我們的 NBM 夥伴關係。這些共同使我們能夠自信地投資於我們的技術路線圖,加強和擴展客戶關係,並在向股東返還資本的同時,提供增長的、持久的自由現金流。這始於我們的技術領導力。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:03:15)It starts with our technology leadership. BiCS8 is the backbone of our current production portfolio and the industry benchmark for performance and density across TLC and QLC. BiCS8 introduced our CMOS directly bonded to array, our CBA architecture, enabling the performance required by AI data center customers and establishing the framework for future generations. BiCS9 pairs the proven BiCS8 cell array with next-generation CMOS, significantly increasing interface performance while retaining a mature memory architecture.
(00:03:15)BiCS8 是我們當前生產組合的基石,也是 TLC 和 QLC 性能和密度的行業基準。BiCS8 引入了我們的 CMOS 直接與陣列鍵合的 CBA 架構,實現了 AI 數據中心客戶所需的性能,並為未來幾代產品建立了框架。BiCS9 將經過驗證的 BiCS8 單元陣列與下一代 CMOS 配對,顯著提高了介面性能,同時保留了成熟的記憶體架構。BiCS10 在 TLC 和 QLC 之間推進了全節點架構,設計了一個針對性能密集型工作負載的一太比特 TLC 晶片,以及一個提供行業領先密度和 BiCS8 兩倍讀寫帶寬的兩太比特 QLC 晶片。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:03:52)BiCS10 advances the full-node architecture across both TLC and QLC, with a one-terabit TLC die designed for performance-intensive workloads and a two-terabit QLC die delivering industry-leading density and twice the read and write bandwidth of BiCS8. Together, these technologies extend the BiCS8 foundation to meet evolving performance and capacity requirements of next-generation infrastructure. Beyond the core roadmap, High Bandwidth Flash, or HBF, reached an important milestone in the fiscal first quarter with the tape-out of our first HBF memory die, with fabrication now underway.
(00:03:52)這些技術共同擴展了 BiCS8 基礎,以滿足下一代基礎設施不斷演變的性能和容量需求。除了核心路線圖,高帶寬閃存(HBF)在財政第一季度達到了重要的里程碑,首次 HBF 記憶體晶片的膠帶已經完成,現在正在進行製造。正如在投資者日上所概述的,HBF 是一種針對推理的新記憶體架構,目標是 HBM 級別的讀取帶寬,並具有顯著更大的容量,以支持更大的模型、更長的上下文長度和增長的 KV 快取。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:04:34)As outlined at Investor Day, HBF is a new memory architecture for inference that targets HBM-class read bandwidth with substantially greater capacity to support larger models, longer context lengths, and growing KV cache. It is designed to complement HBM by bringing NAND-class capacity closer to the processor, and we remain on track to deliver samples of our first HBF-based products next calendar year. HBF remains a future innovation and is not included in the long-term financial model introduced at Investor Day.
(00:04:34)它旨在通過將 NAND 級別的容量更接近處理器來補充 HBM,我們仍然按計劃在明年日曆年交付我們的第一批基於 HBF 的產品樣品。HBF 仍然是一項未來的創新,並未包含在投資者日上介紹的長期財務模型中。隨著客戶採用、產品需求和製造準備變得更加明確,我們預計將提供有關市場機會的進一步看法。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:05:11)As customer adoption, product requirements, and manufacturing readiness become clearer, we expect to provide further perspective on the market opportunity. Customers recognize the strength of our innovation and increasingly view SanDisk as an important partner in achieving their growth objectives. Through our NBMs, we continue to evolve customer relationships into long-term partnerships grounded in innovation, collaboration, and shared commitment. Our most recent customer engagements with the world's leading AI companies indicate further upside in demand for our technology.
(00:05:11)客戶認識到我們創新的力量,越來越多地將 SanDisk 視為實現其增長目標的重要夥伴。通過我們的 NBM,我們繼續將客戶關係發展為基於創新、合作和共同承諾的長期夥伴關係。我們最近與全球領先的 AI 公司進行的客戶接觸表明,我們的技術需求有進一步上升的潛力。我們的市場領先技術產品組合和客戶夥伴關係形成了我們強大財務狀況的基礎,使我們能夠再投資以維持技術領導地位,並通過專注於研發的資本支出擴大供應。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:05:50)Our market-leading technology product portfolio and customer partnerships form the backbone of our strong financial position, allowing us to reinvest to maintain technology leadership and expand supply through R&D-focused CapEx. Each of these strengths is reinforced by tailwinds from AI. The need for scalable memory and storage is expanding as inference workloads grow, making NAND increasingly integral to AI infrastructure. During inference, each generated token must reference the preceding context, creating a growing KV cache that serves as the model's working memory.
(00:05:50)這些優勢都受到 AI 的順風影響。隨著推理工作負載的增長,對可擴展記憶體和存儲的需求正在擴大,使 NAND 在 AI 基礎設施中變得越來越重要。在推理過程中,每個生成的標記必須參考前面的上下文,創建一個不斷增長的 KV 快取,作為模型的工作記憶。更長的提示、更複雜的推理、多模態輸入和持續的用戶上下文實質性地增加了這些存儲需求。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:06:29)Longer prompts, more complex reasoning, multimodal inputs, and persistent user context materially increase these storage requirements. HBM and DRAM support the highest performance tier, while Flash provides the capacity required to efficiently retain broader context, and avoid costly recomputation. We believe this secular dynamic is expanding NAND's role across the AI stack. The memory hierarchy defines the role of each NAND architecture. TLC provides lower latency, higher write performance, and greater endurance required for active datasets, checkpointing, and latency-sensitive KV cache workloads.
(00:06:29)更長的提示、更複雜的推理、多模態輸入和持續的用戶上下文實質性地增加了這些存儲需求。HBM 和 DRAM 支持最高性能層級,而閃存則提供有效保留更廣泛上下文所需的容量,並避免昂貴的重新計算。我們相信這種世俗動態正在擴大 NAND 在 AI 堆疊中的角色。記憶體層級定義了每種 NAND 架構的角色。TLC 提供了較低的延遲、更高的寫入性能以及對於活躍數據集、檢查點和對延遲敏感的 KV 快取工作負載所需的更高耐用性。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:07:14)In our AI lab comparison, we presented an Investor Day update. Systems utilizing SSD delivered approximately three times the token throughput while using about 75% less energy than comparable systems relying solely on volatile memory. QLC further increases storage density for capacity-intensive applications, such as data lakes, vector databases powering AI search, and retrieval repositories. Between these layers, a growing persistent context tier establishes data to be retained and recalled rather than regenerated.
(00:07:14)在我們的 AI 實驗室比較中,我們呈現了投資者日的更新。使用 SSD 的系統在能耗上約比僅依賴揮發性記憶體的可比系統少了 75%,而且提供了約三倍的令牌吞吐量。QLC 進一步提高了對於容量密集型應用的存儲密度,例如數據湖、為 AI 搜索提供支持的向量數據庫和檢索庫。在這些層之間,出現了一個不斷增長的持久上下文層。確立了數據的保留和回憶,而不是重新生成。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:07:53)As inference costs decline, we expect adoption and usage to expand, supporting our view that KV cache will represent approximately one-third of the AI data center flash market by decade's end, and that the AI data center opportunity will approach the size of today's NAND industry. Turning to our end markets. In Data Center, our portfolio addresses the full range of AI infrastructure needs, from performance-intensive enterprise SSDs to high-capacity platforms. Demand remains strong and continues to grow; we estimate Data Center has expanded from about 20% of industry bits early in the decade to roughly half today.
(00:07:53)隨著推理成本的下降,我們預期採用和使用將擴大,支持我們的觀點,即到本世紀末,KV 快取將佔據 AI 數據中心快閃市場的約三分之一,而 AI 數據中心的機會將接近當今 NAND 產業的規模。轉向我們的最終市場。在數據中心,我們的產品組合滿足了從性能密集型企業 SSD 到高容量平台的全範圍 AI 基礎設施需求。需求仍然強勁並持續增長;我們估計數據中心的市場份額從本世紀初的約 20% 擴展到今天的約一半。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:08:44)This structural shift in customer mix is reshaping industry economics and is central to the transformation underway at SanDisk. This quarter, Data Center again delivered strong growth and continued to outpace the broader market as we allocated more supply to meet growing demand. Edge is a large and strategically important market for SanDisk. Expanding smartphones, PCs, automotive, tablets, and a growing range of physical AI applications. Automotive is becoming an increasingly important growth vector in our Edge business and a meaningful long-term opportunity.
(00:08:44)客戶組合的這一結構性變化正在重塑行業經濟,並且是 SanDisk 正在進行的轉型的核心。本季度,數據中心再次實現強勁增長,並繼續超越更廣泛的市場,因為我們分配了更多供應以滿足增長的需求。邊緣市場對 SanDisk 來說是一個龐大且戰略重要的市場。擴展的智能手機、PC、汽車、平板電腦以及不斷增長的物理 AI 應用範圍。汽車在我們的邊緣業務中正成為一個越來越重要的增長向量,並且是一個有意義的長期機會。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:09:25)We have deepening engagements with leading customers, reinforcing our confidence that automotive can become one of the largest markets within Edge over time. Our consumer business remains a differentiated strategic asset, combining direct brand engagement with hundreds of millions of end users and broad shelf presence across the world's leading channel partners. The consumer end market provides a durable foundation for our business, while its direct connection to the market informs product development and offers early insight into shifts in end-user demand.
(00:09:25)我們與領先客戶的合作日益加深,增強了我們的信心,即汽車市場隨著時間的推移可以成為邊緣市場中最大的市場之一。我們的消費者業務仍然是一項差異化的戰略資產,結合了與數億終端用戶的直接品牌互動以及在全球領先渠道合作夥伴中的廣泛上架。消費者最終市場為我們的業務提供了持久的基礎,而其與市場的直接聯繫則為產品開發提供了信息,並提供了對終端用戶需求變化的早期洞察。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:10:02)Taken together, these results reinforce the durability of the model we outlined at our Investor Day. We have established strong profitability and cash generation, and our focus now is consistent execution across the portfolio. With that, I'll turn the call over to Luis for a detailed update on our business and outlook.
(00:10:02)綜合來看,這些結果強化了我們在投資者日上概述的模型的持久性。我們已建立強大的盈利能力和現金產生能力,現在的重點是在整個產品組閤中保持一致的執行。有鑑於此,我將把電話轉交給 Luis,讓他詳細更新我們的業務和前景。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:10:25)Thank you, David. We're executing the strategies and plans outlined at Investor Day and delivering attractive financial results. In the first quarter, we closed two NBMs. Because both deals closed before our fourth quarter earnings call, we announced these partnerships during that call. We're actively engaging with existing NBM customers evaluating extensions and with new customers considering new NBMs. These long-term partnerships provide greater visibility into demand and financial performance. Supporting a more durable financial model.
(00:10:25)謝謝你,David。我們正在執行在投資者日上概述的策略和計劃,並交付吸引人的財務結果。在第一季度,我們完成了兩個 NBM。因為這兩筆交易在我們第四季度的收益電話會議之前完成,我們在那次會議中宣佈了這些合作夥伴關係。我們正在積極與現有的 NBM 客戶進行接觸,評估擴展,並與考慮新 NBM 的新客戶進行接觸。這些長期合作夥伴關係提供了對需求和財務表現的更大可見性。支持更持久的財務模型。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:11:05)We will remain patient and disciplined in selecting the right long-term partners as we define the optimal percentage of bits allocated to NBMs, likely higher than current levels. Revenue for the first quarter was $11 billion, up 23% sequentially and 378% year-over-year. This compares favorably with our guidance range of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion. Both volume growth and higher pricing contributed to revenue growth, with approximately 60% attributable to volume and 40% to pricing. Data Center revenue was $4.8 billion, up 61% sequentially, outpacing estimated market growth for the quarter.
(00:11:05)在選擇合適的長期合作夥伴時,我們將保持耐心和紀律,因為我們定義分配給 NBM 的最佳出價百分比,可能高於當前水平。第一季度的收入為 110 億美元,環比增長 23%,同比增長 378%。這與我們的指導範圍 103 億至 108 億美元相比是有利的。銷售量增長和更高的價格共同促進了收入增長,其中約 60% 歸因於銷售量,40% 歸因於價格。數據中心的收入為 48 億美元,環比增長 61%,超過了本季度的市場增長預估。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:11:56)Our leading products and strong customer partnerships including three U.S. hyperscalers, underpin our continued expansion in this fast-growing end market. Edge revenue was $5.8 billion, up 7% sequentially, reflecting resilience in premium and mainstream markets, partially offset by contraction at the lower end. Within Edge, we saw strong growth with automotive and IoT customers. Consumer revenue was $397 million, down 29% sequentially, as the market adjusts to higher pricing. We remain committed to serving all three end markets with a diversified portfolio that optimizes performance over time.
(00:11:56)我們的領先產品和強大的客戶合作夥伴關係包括三家美國的超級雲端服務商,支撐了我們在這個快速增長的最終市場中的持續擴張。邊緣市場的收入為 58 億美元,環比增長 7%,反映了高端和主流市場的韌性,部分被低端市場的收縮所抵消。在邊緣市場中,我們與汽車和物聯網客戶看到了強勁增長。消費者收入為 3.97 億美元,環比下降 29%,因為市場正在調整以適應更高的價格。我們仍然致力於以多元化的產品組合服務所有三個最終市場,並隨著時間的推移優化性能。第一季度的非 GAAP 毛利率為 85.1%,高於前一季度的 84.6%,這得益於更高的銷售量和價格。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:12:43)Non-GAAP gross margin for the first quarter was 85.1%, up from 84.6% in the prior quarter, driven by higher volumes and pricing. This compares favorably with our guidance range of 83 to 85%. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $513 million, representing 4.7% of revenue. Non-GAAP operating margin was 80.4%, compared to 79.2% in the prior quarter. Non-GAAP EPS was $49.51, up from $39.25 in the prior quarter. And $1.22 in the same quarter of the prior fiscal year. This compares favorably with our guidance range of $44 to $46.
(00:12:43)這與我們的指導範圍 83% 至 85% 相比是有利的。非 GAAP 營業費用為 5.13 億美元,佔收入的 4.7%。非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 80.4%,相比前一季度的 79.2%。非 GAAP 每股收益為 49.51 美元,高於前一季度的 39.25 美元。以及前一財政年度同一季度的 1.22 美元。這與我們的指導範圍 $44 到 $46 相比是相當有利的。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:13:32)We closed the quarter with 154 million diluted shares outstanding. Key GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation items include $91 million in stock-based compensation, representing 0.8% of revenues. Additionally, there was a $513 million gain on equity securities, primarily attributable to our investment in Nanya. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 3.2 million shares of our common stock for $5 billion. Over the past two quarters, we have repurchased 6 million shares, representing approximately 4% of our total shares outstanding.
(00:13:32)我們在本季度結束時擁有 1.54 億股稀釋後的流通股。主要的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節項目包括 9100 萬美元的股票補償,佔收入的 0.8%。此外,還有 5.13 億美元的股權證券收益,主要歸因於我們對南亞科技的投資。在本季度,我們回購了約 320 萬股普通股,總金額為 50 億美元。在過去兩個季度中,我們回購了 600 萬股,約佔我們總流通股的 4%。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:14:13)Our repurchases reflect our conviction in the long-term value of the business and our disciplined approach to capital allocation. We continue to invest appropriately in the business while returning 100% of excess cash to shareholders. Moving on to free cash flow, cash flow from operations was $6.4 billion. Gross capital expenditures totaled $378 million, representing 3.4% of revenue. We expect gross capital spending to increase during the remainder of the year and represent a mid-single-digit percentage of revenue for fiscal year 2027.
(00:14:13)我們的回購反映了我們的信念在業務的長期價值和我們對資本配置的嚴謹方法。我們繼續適當地投資於業務,同時將 100% 的超額現金返還給股東。接下來談談自由現金流,來自營運的現金流為 64 億美元。總資本支出為 3.78 億美元,佔收入的 3.4%。我們預計在今年剩餘時間內,總資本支出將增加,並佔 2027 財年的收入中位數的單位數百分比。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:14:54)During the quarter, we generated $5.7 billion in adjusted free cash flow, representing approximately a 52 percent margin. We closed the quarter with $5.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents and no debt. Moving on to guidance, our confidence in the long-term health of the market is reinforced by the structural growth of AI infrastructure and the expanding role of NAND across inference workloads. Before turning to our second quarter outlook, I will announce that SanDisk's Board of Directors has approved an 8-for-1 stock split of the company's common stock.
(00:14:54)在本季度,我們產生了 57 億美元的調整後自由現金流,約佔 52% 的利潤率。我們在季度結束時擁有 51 億美元的現金及現金等價物,且沒有負債。接下來談談指導,我們的信心在市場的長期健康上,受到 AI 基礎設施的結構性增長和 NAND 在推理工作負載中擴大角色的強化。在轉向我們的第二季度展望之前,我將宣佈 SanDisk 的董事會已批准公司普通股的 8 比 1 股票分割。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:15:34)The additional shares are expected to be distributed on November 19, with trading on a split-adjusted basis expected to begin on November 20. For the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, we expect revenue between $12.2 billion and $12.6 billion. We expect non-GAAP gross margin between 84.5% and 85.5%, which includes modest like-for-like price increases. On a pre-split basis, we expect non-GAAP EPS between $55 and $57, assuming 151 million fully diluted shares. On an 8-for-1 split-adjusted basis, this equates to non-GAAP EPS between $6.88 and $7.13, assuming approximately 1,208 million fully diluted shares.
(00:15:34)這些額外的股份預計將於11 月 19 日分配,並預計於 11 月 20 日開始以分割調整後的基準進行交易。對於 2027 財年的第二季度,我們預計收入在 122 億美元到 126 億美元之間。我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率在 84.5% 到 85.5% 之間,其中包括適度的同類價格上漲。在未分割的基礎上,我們預計非 GAAP 每股收益在 55 美元到 57 美元之間,假設有 1.51 億股完全稀釋的股份。在 8 比 1 分割調整後的基礎上,這相當於非 GAAP 每股收益在 6.88 美元到 7.13 美元之間,假設約有 12.08 億股完全稀釋的股份。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:16:32)For context, we expect a strong market in calendar year 2027. Data Center is expected to be, again, the engine of growth, representing over 55% of the market, with bit demand growing about 40% year-over-year, enabled by higher AI-driven capital spending. This follows more than doubling in 2026. Our NBM pipeline exceeds our supply through the end of the decade. Without further ado, let me turn the call back to David.
(00:16:32)為了提供背景,我們預計 2027 日曆年將是一個強勁的市場。數據中心預計將再次成為增長的引擎,佔市場的 55% 以上,隨著 AI 驅動的資本支出增加,位元需求年增長約 40%。這是在 2026 年增長超過一倍之後的情況。我們的 NBM 管道超過了我們在十年末的供應。不再多說,讓我把電話交回給 David。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:17:06)Thank you, Luis. We continue to execute on the strategy we outlined at Investor Day, reinforcing our confidence in SanDisk's long-term trajectory. Our technology leadership, deep customer partnerships, and disciplined financial management, supported by a structural increase in demand driven by AI, position us to serve our customers, deliver growing and durable free cash flow, and return capital to shareholders. Over the past year, we have transformed the earnings and cash generation power of the business and established a strong foundation for durable performance.
(00:17:06)謝謝你,Luis。我們繼續執行我們在投資者日上概述的策略,增強了我們對 SanDisk 長期發展的信心。我們的技術領導地位、深厚的客戶夥伴關係和嚴謹的財務管理,加上 AI 驅動的需求結構性增長,使我們能夠服務客戶,提供增長和持久的自由現金流,並將資本返還給股東。在過去的一年中,我們已經轉變了業務的收益和現金生成能力,並建立了持久表現的堅實基礎。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:17:45)We remain focused on disciplined execution, sustained value creation, and delivering against our long-term financial objectives.
(00:17:45)我們仍然專注於嚴謹的執行、持續的價值創造,以及實現我們的長期財務目標。
Q&A Speaker01 - Operator
(00:17:54)With that, Ivan, let's open it up for questions. At this time, we'll begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you wish to withdraw it, you may press star then 2. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble the roster. Our first question today comes from Ben Reitzes from Melius Research. Please go ahead with your question.
(00:17:54)有鑑於此,Ivan,讓我們開始提問。現在,我們將開始問答環節。要提問,您可以在電話鍵盤上按星號然後按 1。如果您使用的是免提電話,請在按鍵之前拿起話筒。如果在任何時候您的問題已經被解答,並且您希望撤回,您可以按星號然後按 2。現在,我們將暫停片刻以整理名單。我們今天的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Ben Reitzes。請提出您的問題。
Ben Reitzes - Melius Research, Analyst
(00:18:33)Hey, guys. Thank you very much. I appreciate it. Hey, Dave. I wanted to ask two questions, if I could. One on the NBMs. You signed two before the last call, so I'm just wondering if we're going to have many more of them, because it seems like you're already capacity constrained to agree to them. And then, do you mind reminding us what the bits under contract will be over the next few years, and if that has changed at all? And then I have a quick follow-up. Thanks.
(00:18:33)嘿,大家好。非常感謝。我很感激。嘿,Dave。我想問兩個問題,如果可以的話。一個關於 NBM。您在上次通話之前簽署了兩個,所以我只是想知道我們是否會有更多的,因為看起來您已經受到產能限制。然後,您介意提醒我們未來幾年合同下的位元數量是多少,這是否有任何變化?然後我有一個簡短的跟進問題。謝謝。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:19:05)Yeah, I'll make a few comments – thanks, Ben. We appreciate it. Always good to hear from you. So I'll make a few comments on NBMs, and then Luis will add his perspective. Yeah, we have a very strong pipeline of NBMs. And, you know, you touched on all the key issues there. As the portfolio becomes more subscribed and committed — we're at half the bits for this fiscal year and two-thirds for next year — it's a fitting exercise to bring in the next tranche. But the pipeline remains very strong. I believe we said last quarter that we would be patient and carefully consider the next set of customers.
(00:19:05)是的,我會做幾個評論——謝謝,Ben。我們很感謝。聽到你的消息總是很好。所以我會對 NBMs 做幾個評論,然後 Luis 會補充他的觀點。是的,我們有一個非常強大的 NBM 管道。而且,你知道,你觸及了所有關鍵問題。隨著投資組合的訂閱和承諾越來越多——我們在本財年已經達到一半的比特,明年則達到三分之二——這是一個合適的行動來引入下一批。但管道仍然非常強勁。我相信我們在上個季度說過,我們會耐心並仔細考慮下一批客戶。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:19:43)And that's exactly what we're doing. We expect more customers over the coming months and quarters as we continue allocating the rest of the portfolio. So the pipeline is strong and growing, and it has become the predominant way we engage with our customers. I expect the percentage of the portfolio committed to continue increasing over the next couple of quarters. Luis?
(00:19:43)而這正是我們正在做的。我們預計在接下來的幾個月和季度會有更多客戶,因為我們繼續分配其餘的投資組合。所以管道強勁且在增長,這已成為我們與客戶互動的主要方式。我預計在接下來的幾個季度中,投資組合的承諾百分比將繼續增加。Luis?
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:20:11)Yeah, just a few points since David covered most of it. We feel very confident about where we stand with the NBMs. As you know, we've been very selective and strategic in choosing who to sign these deals with. Looking at the companies we have, 95% of our NBMs are with investment-grade companies that generated about $130 billion in operating cash flow. So we believe we've made the right choices. And as David mentioned, we'll continue to be patient. We'll remain selective. The pipeline is excellent. You should expect us to continue making progress.
(00:20:11)是的,David 已經涵蓋了大部分內容,我只想補充幾點。我們對 NBMs 的現狀感到非常有信心。如你所知,我們在選擇簽署這些交易的對象時非常謹慎和有策略。看看我們的公司,95% 的 NBMs 都是與投資級公司合作,這些公司產生了約 1300 億美元的營運現金流。所以我們相信我們做出了正確的選擇。正如 David 提到的,我們將繼續保持耐心。我們將保持選擇性。管道非常出色。你應該期待我們繼續取得進展。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:20:53)In my prepared remarks, I noted that we expect the bits to keep growing. We shared that about 50% of our bits are under NBM for 2027 and about two-thirds for 2028. We expect that number to increase slightly beyond the two-thirds.
(00:20:53)在我準備的發言中,我提到我們預期位元將持續增長。我們分享了大約 50% 的位元是針對 2027 年的 NBM,約三分之二是針對 2028 年的。我們預計這個數字會略微超過三分之二。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:21:14)Hey Ben, I'll just add one more comment. You have to ask two questions, or I'll make two comments. We're also balancing customers who are returning for more. That is a real phenomenon, and generally, our customers have underestimated the amount of NAND they need to run their infrastructure, so we have multiple customers coming back for a second round, balanced against bringing new customers into the portfolio. These are complex agreements, but we feel very confident about the pipeline, the portfolio, and the product resonance, and we'll continue updating you as we build out the NBMs over the next quarters.
(00:21:14)嘿,Ben,我再補充一點。你必須問兩個問題,否則我會做兩個評論。我們也在平衡那些回來尋求更多的客戶。這是一個真實的現象,通常我們的客戶低估了運行其基礎設施所需的 NAND 數量,因此我們有多位客戶回來進行第二輪,並平衡引入新客戶到投資組閤中。這些是複雜的協議,但我們對管道、投資組合和產品共鳴感到非常有信心,我們將在接下來的幾個季度中持續更新你們,隨著 NBMs 的擴展。
Ben Reitzes - Melius Research, Analyst
(00:22:06)Okay, great. And Just a quick follow-up. You may have seen that Intel guided down for the next quarter due to PCs, and the memory impact is greater than expected, at least based on their guidance. I don't know about others. Just wondering if you are seeing more NBM interest from those in the PC market, and if that market, regarding some device makers, is becoming an NBM opportunity or is now more attractive because they are willing to pay more? How should we think about that, given they seem starved for product and are missing numbers in that segment?
(00:22:06)好的,很好。而且只是快速跟進一下。你可能已經看到,Intel 因為 PC 的原因下調了下個季度的預測,記憶體的影響超出預期,至少根據他們的指導。我不知道其他情況。只是想知道你是否看到來自 PC 市場的更多 NBM 興趣,以及該市場對某些設備製造商來說,是否成為了 NBM 機會,或者現在更具吸引力,因為他們願意支付更多?鑒於他們似乎對產品需求迫切,並且在該細分市場中錯過了數字,我們應該如何看待這一點?
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:22:50)Yeah, Ben, we cannot discuss specific customers. What we've said before is that we do have NBMs in the data center business. It's data center-centric, but we also have customers on the edge. We've offered this construct to any customer who wants it and started the process where it makes sense. So we're not restricting it from any customer. We're open for business.
(00:22:50)是的,Ben,我們不能討論具體的客戶。我們之前提到過,我們確實在數據中心業務中有 NBMs。它以數據中心為中心,但我們也有邊緣客戶。我們已經向任何需要的客戶提供了這種結構,並在合適的地方啟動了過程。所以我們並不限制任何客戶。我們隨時歡迎業務。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:23:16)So, Ben, the other thing I'll say is that we reviewed this internally. We know that units were down this year. They're expected to be slightly down next year, around low single digits. These two calendar quarters represent the trough of the year-over-year comparisons, where the declines are most pronounced. This is where we are experiencing the largest year-over-year changes in that market on a unit basis. That said, we expect PC exabytes to grow next year. In fact... Our internal models indicate growth across every segment in the NAND market.
(00:23:16)所以,Ben,我還要說的是,我們在內部審查了這個問題。我們知道今年的單位數量下降了。預計明年會略微下降,大約在低個位數。這兩個日曆季度代表了年比年比較的低谷,下降幅度最為明顯。這是我們在該市場上按單位計算經歷最大年比年變化的地方。也就是說,我們預計明年的 PC Exabytes 會增長。事實上……我們的內部模型顯示 NAND 市場的每個細分市場都有增長。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:23:58)PCs, smartphones, and data centers will all show positive growth next year, driven by increasing content per device and a shift toward premium products. There is no doubt that the market has undergone an adjustment. From a unit perspective, as I mentioned, we are currently at the lowest point year-over-year. However, we anticipate improvement from this point forward.
(00:23:58)PC、智能手機和數據中心明年都將顯示正增長,這是由於每個設備的內容增加以及向高端產品的轉變。毫無疑問,市場已經經歷了一次調整。從單位的角度來看,正如我提到的,我們目前正處於年比年最低點。然而,我們預計從這一點開始會有所改善。
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:24:24)Thanks, everyone.
(00:24:24)謝謝大家。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:24:25)Thank you. Thanks, Ben.
(00:24:25)謝謝你。謝謝,Ben。
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:24:28)Our next question comes from Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead with your question.
(00:24:28)我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Joe Moore。請提出你的問題。
Joe Moore - Morgan Stanley, Analyst
(00:24:34)Great. Thank you. It seems the underlying story here, beyond the strong market, is your presence in the data center segment. You're up almost 20 times year-over-year and 61% sequentially. Can you discuss whether this is due solely to the favorable market or if your participation has also improved significantly? Is this growth attributable to BiCS8? Or is it because the market dynamics are different? What factors are enabling you to achieve these levels of penetration? And if data center eventually represents half of BiTS, will your own product mix reflect that as well?
(00:24:34)很好。謝謝你。似乎這裡的根本故事,除了強勁的市場外,還有你在數據中心細分市場的存在。你們的年比年增長幾乎達到 20 倍,環比增長 61%。你能否討論這是否僅僅是由於有利的市場,還是你們的參與也顯著改善了?這一增長是否歸因於 BiCS8?還是因為市場動態不同?什麼因素使你們能夠實現這些滲透率?如果數據中心最終佔 BiTS 的一半,你們自己的產品組合是否也會反映這一點?
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:25:04)Thanks for the question, Joe. We feel very confident about our position in the data center market. Achieving the kind of year-over-year growth we've posted is due to several factors. It starts with the fundamental NAND node. BiCS8 is a very strong node. Additionally, CBA provides very clean CMOS, enabling excellent interface speeds and other benefits. We have developed the right products. Our TLC product has been in the market for several years now. Just a few quarters ago, we began selling our QLC product for revenue, and as expected, it is ramping up.
(00:25:04)謝謝你的問題,Joe。我們對自己在數據中心市場的地位非常有信心。我們所取得的年比年增長是由幾個因素促成的。這始於基本的 NAND 節點。BiCS8 是一個非常強大的節點。此外,CBA 提供非常乾淨的 CMOS,實現卓越的接口速度和其他好處。我們開發了合適的產品。我們的 TLC 產品已經在市場上幾年了。就在幾個季度前,我們開始銷售我們的 QLC 產品以獲取收入,正如預期的那樣,它正在增長。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:25:37)So, we have the right product at the right time, based on the right technology. And then, Over the last quarter or so, there has been significant refinement in AI inference architecture. Internally, when we analyze the market, customers are becoming more sophisticated in how they use NAND, deciding where to deploy TLC versus QLC. This includes various phases such as KV cache, staging, fast data lakes, and sub-segments like inference, agent orchestration, model pre-training, and post-training. Overall, we are seeing NAND applied in a more nuanced way.
(00:25:37)因此,我們在正確的時間擁有正確的產品,基於正確的技術。然後,在過去的一個季度左右,AI 推理架構有了顯著的改進。在內部,當我們分析市場時,客戶在使用 NAND 方面變得更加成熟,決定在何處部署 TLC 與 QLC。這包括各種階段,如 KV 緩存、分級、快速數據湖,以及推理、代理編排、模型預訓練和後訓練等子細分市場。總體而言,我們看到 NAND 的應用變得更加細緻。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:26:25)Previously, QLC was used appropriately, and now some customers are even deploying QLC in KV cache where it can be supported. Where it can be supported. On the other end, we are seeing SLC being integrated into architectures. This is not yet reflected in sales. It is more part of architectural discussions. These discussions are not about performance. Rather, they focus on endurance, particularly for agent workloads requiring high endurance. In these cases, the question is where NAND can substitute for DRAM.
(00:26:25)之前,QLC 的使用是適當的,而現在一些客戶甚至在 KV 緩存中部署 QLC,這是可以支持的。在可以支持的地方。在另一端,我們看到 SLC 被整合到架構中。這尚未反映在銷售中。這更多是架構討論的一部分。這些討論並不是關於性能。而是專注於耐用性,特別是對於需要高耐用性的代理工作負載。在這些情況下,問題是 NAND 可以替代 DRAM 的地方。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:27:04)We believe these architectures will be very sticky over time. Once the transition is made, customers tend to remain due to the price differential. So, we see all these factors working together. And I think these NBMs position us well for very deep and strategic conversations with our customers about how they are using our products, including detailed discussions with our engineers about how they could leverage our products to address different use cases. All of this is driving a strong pull on our portfolio.
(00:27:04)我們相信這些架構隨著時間的推移會非常穩定。一旦轉型完成,客戶往往會因為價格差異而保持不變。因此,我們看到所有這些因素共同發揮作用。我認為這些 NBM 使我們能夠與客戶進行非常深入和戰略性的對話,討論他們如何使用我們的產品,包括與我們的工程師進行詳細的討論。他們如何利用我們的產品來應對不同的使用案例。所有這些都在強烈推動我們的產品組合。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:27:41)As I mentioned, with our largest customers, we have already signed a second tranche of an NBM and are in discussions with others. The overall setup is very strong, and we feel confident about it. We appreciate your recognition of our year-over-year performance. It truly is quite outstanding.
(00:27:41)正如我提到的,與我們最大的客戶,我們已經簽署了第二批 NBM,並且正在與其他客戶進行討論。整體設置非常強大,我們對此感到自信。我們感謝您對我們年同比表現的認可。這確實是相當出色的。
Joe Moore - Morgan Stanley, Analyst
(00:27:59)Yes, it is surprising. Where do you see the mix going long-term in terms of potential overhappening?
(00:27:59)是的,這令人驚訝。您認為長期來看,這種組合會如何發展?
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:28:04)Oh, yes. We are working hard to align our portfolio mix to match the market segments. We expect to continue making progress throughout calendar year 2027. We'll see if we can actually catch up by the end of the quarter. I believe we will achieve a substantially higher mix percentage compared to fiscal year 2026. We will keep making progress in this area. Thank you.
(00:28:04)哦,是的。我們正在努力調整我們的產品組合,以匹配市場細分。我們預計在 2027 日曆年內將持續取得進展。我們將看看是否能在季度結束前實際趕上。我相信我們將實現比 2026 財年更高的組合百分比。我們將在這個領域持續取得進展。謝謝您。
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:28:35)Our next question comes from Mark Newman from Bernstein. Please go ahead with your question.
(00:28:35)我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Mark Newman。請提出您的問題。
Mark Newman - Bernstein, Analyst
(00:28:41)All right. Thank you for taking my question. First, I would like to discuss price and volume in the guidance. You mentioned that in fiscal Q1, about 60% of revenue growth came from volume and 40% from pricing baked into your guidance. How do you expect that mix to evolve? Any comments on pricing? I understand a large portion of volumes are from NBMs, but I would appreciate some clarity on pricing. There was a mention of modest pricing improvements in fiscal Q2; could you provide further details? Also, I have a follow-up question regarding High Bandwidth Flash and some of the new NAND technologies.
(00:28:41)好的。感謝您回答我的問題。首先,我想討論指導中的價格和銷量。您提到在 2026 財年第一季度,大約 60% 的收入增長來自於銷量,40% 來自於您指導中所包含的價格。您預計這種組合會如何演變?對於價格有什麼評論嗎?我知道大量的銷量來自 NBM,但我希望能對價格有更清晰的瞭解。在 2026 財年第二季度提到了一些適度的價格改善;您能提供更多細節嗎?此外,我有一個關於高帶寬閃存和一些新 NAND 技術的後續問題。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:29:34)Let me address the first question. You are correct. We reported that approximately 60% of revenue growth in Q1 came from volume and 40% from pricing. We expect both factors to contribute in the next quarter as well. We typically do not break down this metric into its components. However, we do anticipate modest pricing improvements, as noted in our prepared remarks. Both volume and pricing are expected to contribute during the quarter. We expect pricing to continue increasing modestly throughout the year.
(00:29:34)讓我先回答第一個問題。您是對的。我們報告稱,第一季度約 60% 的收入增長來自於銷量,40% 來自於價格。我們預計這兩個因素在下一季度也會有所貢獻。我們通常不會將這個指標分解成其組成部分。不過,正如我們的準備發言中所提到的,我們確實預期會有適度的價格改善。銷量和價格預計在本季度都會有所貢獻。我們預計價格在整個年度內將持續適度上升。
Mark Newman - Bernstein, Analyst
(00:30:10)That's helpful, Kurnas. My follow-up question concerns High Bandwidth Flash and other new NAND technologies in the data center. There was mention of progress on High Bandwidth Flash, which was encouraging to hear. Could you provide more details on progress and discussions with partners and customers? Additionally, Dave, you mentioned other new NAND technologies in the data center. Storage class memory and also CMX context memory. What is your perspective on these new NAND tiers in the data center? Do you believe they will all succeed?
(00:30:10)這很有幫助,Kurnas。我的後續問題涉及數據中心的高帶寬閃存和其他新 NAND 技術。提到了高帶寬閃存的進展,這聽起來令人鼓舞。您能提供更多有關進展和與合作夥伴及客戶的討論的細節嗎?此外,Dave,您提到數據中心的其他新 NAND 技術。存儲類內存以及 CMX 上下文內存。您對這些新 NAND 層在數據中心的看法是什麼?您認為它們都會成功嗎?
Mark Newman - Bernstein, Analyst
(00:30:57)Any comments on how these technologies interplay, their roles, how SanDisk participates, and timing would be appreciated. Thank you.
(00:30:57)任何關於這些技術如何相互作用、它們的角色、SanDisk 如何參與以及時間安排的評論都將不勝感激。謝謝您。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:31:07)Sure. So, Mark, no, the conversations with potential customers regarding High Bandwidth Flash are robust and ongoing. We will continue these discussions as we provide samples for customers to evaluate and understand how it fits into their systems. We will keep updating on this; it is an ongoing conversation. Your second question is, I believe this is very healthy for the current state of AI inference, as the architecture is being relentlessly refined for economic efficiency as it scales. This is beneficial because the more scalable and economical the architecture becomes, the better it is for growth.
(00:31:07)當然。所以,Mark,不,與潛在客戶關於高帶寬閃存的對話是強勁且持續的。我們將繼續這些討論,因為我們提供樣品讓客戶評估並瞭解它如何融入他們的系統。我們將持續更新這方面的情況;這是一個持續的對話。您的第二個問題是,我相信這對於當前的人工智慧推理狀態非常健康,因為架構正在不斷地為經濟效率進行精煉,隨著規模的擴大而改進。這是有益的,因為架構越具可擴展性和經濟性,對於增長就越有利。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:31:56)This trend is driving NAND integration into more parts of the architecture, given that NAND is the most scalable semiconductor technology available. So, as I mentioned, we are observing this development closely. A few years ago, the focus was primarily on increasing density, moving from TLC to QLC. We continue to pursue that strategy. While that remains a significant part of our approach, we are also exploring some movement in the opposite direction. Specifically, how can we achieve greater endurance in certain parts of the architecture?
(00:31:56)這一趨勢正在推動 NAND 整合進入架構的更多部分,因為 NAND 是目前最具可擴展性的半導體技術。所以,正如我提到的,我們正在密切觀察這一發展。幾年前,重點主要是提高密度,從 TLC 轉向 QLC。我們繼續追求這一策略。雖然這仍然是我們方法中的重要部分,但我們也在探索一些相反方向的動作。具體來說,我們如何在架構的某些部分實現更大的耐用性?
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:32:25)Is the endurance and performance of NAND sufficient to address use cases in areas of the architecture where it can be used instead of competing technologies that are often more expensive and harder to obtain? I would characterize this as a very dynamic discussion. There are many ideas being considered. And rightly so, there should be a wide range of ideas on the table. I expect all of these ideas will be actively pursued. The most important aspect is to stay closely connected with the people investing in scaling the infrastructure.
(00:32:25)NAND 的耐用性和性能是否足以應對使用案例在架構的某些領域,能否用它來取代那些通常更昂貴且更難獲得的競爭技術?我會將這描述為一個非常動態的討論。有許多想法正在考慮中。而且這是正確的,應該有廣泛的想法在桌面上。我預期所有這些想法都會被積極追求。最重要的方面是與投資於擴展基礎設施的人保持密切聯繫。基礎設施。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:33:02)Ultimately, they will decide what is best for their needs based on the use cases they aim to solve at scale and where they allocate their investments. We are deeply engaged in these conversations and anticipate they will remain robust, with many ideas on how to extend our technology in various directions to address more use cases. When building a product, the principle is always the same. I want the right technology at the right time, with the right intensity and cost—nothing less, nothing more. That is the essence of product development: delivering at the right price to achieve the appropriate return.
(00:33:02)最終,他們將根據他們希望在規模上解決的使用案例以及他們分配的投資來決定什麼是最適合他們的需求。我們深度參與這些對話,預計它們將保持強勁,並有許多想法來擴展我們的技術,以應對更多的使用案例。在構建產品時,原則始終是相同的。我想要在正確的時間,使用正確的技術,以正確的強度和成本——不多也不少。這就是產品開發的本質:以正確的價格交付,以實現適當的回報。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:33:44)This process is fully underway in AI inference architecture as we collaborate with our customers.
(00:33:44)在我們與客戶合作的過程中,這一過程在人工智慧推理架構中已經全面展開。
Mark Newman - Bernstein, Analyst
(00:33:53)Fantastic. Thanks for the call. Sure.
(00:33:53)太好了。感謝您的來電。當然。
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:33:57)Our next question comes from David Gibson of MST Financial. Please go ahead with your question.
(00:33:57)我們的下一個問題來自 MST Financial 的 David Gibson。請提出您的問題。
David Gibson - MST Financial, Analyst
(00:34:05)Thanks, everyone. It’s been a really great quarter. Well done. I’m just curious. Can you hear me? Sorry? Yes, yes. Hi, David. Thank you very much for your time today. Just a quick question. Are you looking to accelerate the BiCS transition from 8 to 9, 10, and beyond as a way to boost bit growth in the short term and meet the very strong customer demand?
(00:34:05)謝謝大家。這是一個非常棒的季度。做得好。我只是好奇。你能聽到我嗎?抱歉?是的,是的。嗨,David。非常感謝您今天的時間。只是個簡單的問題。你們是否希望加速 BiCS 從 8 到 9、10 及以後的過渡,作為短期內提升位元增長和滿足非常強勁的客戶需求的一種方式?
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:34:32)No, we remain committed to the bit growth guidance we provided, targeting mid to high teens. These node transitions require extensive planning, including tool purchases and line setups. So, we have a fab plan established to support the bit growth we've been discussing for quite some time. Therefore, there are no plans to change that at this point.
(00:34:32)不,我們仍然致力於我們提供的位元增長指導,目標是中高十幾。這些節點過渡需要廣泛的規劃,包括工具購買和生產線設置。所以,我們已經建立了一個工廠計劃,以支持我們已經討論了相當長一段時間的位元增長。因此,目前沒有改變這一點的計劃。
David Gibson - MST Financial, Analyst
(00:35:00)Okay, thank you. Just one follow-up. You mentioned earlier about allocating more supply to the data center in Q1. Are there any limitations to increasingly allocating your bits to data centers?
(00:35:00)好的,謝謝。只是有一個後續問題。你之前提到過在第一季度將更多供應分配給數據中心。在越來越多地將你的位元分配給數據中心方面,有沒有任何限制?
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:35:16)Well, in some respects, yes. I mean, coming out of the fab, you have a specific mix of TLC, QLC, and various die types, among other factors. So, it's a continuous balancing act to deliver the right product to the right customer. There's a lot of expertise and coordination involved within the organization. Luis's team plays a significant role in this, collaborating closely with our sales teams. They assess available inventory, production output from the fab, product mix, and determine allocation. Would you like to elaborate further on that?
(00:35:16)嗯,在某些方面,是的。我的意思是,從晶圓廠出來後,您會有特定的 TLC、QLC 和各種晶片類型的混合,還有其他因素。因此,這是一個持續的平衡行為,以便將正確的產品交付給正確的客戶。在組織內部涉及大量的專業知識和協調。Luis 的團隊在這方面扮演著重要角色,與我們的銷售團隊密切合作。他們評估可用的庫存、晶圓廠的生產產出、產品混合,並確定分配。您想進一步闡述一下嗎?
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:35:53)Sure. I would add that the dynamics vary depending on the timeframe considered. In the short term, it's nearly impossible to make adjustments. It takes approximately 120 days to produce a wafer. However, looking further ahead, there is more flexibility and options available.
(00:35:53)當然。我想補充的是,根據考慮的時間框架,動態會有所不同。在短期內,幾乎不可能進行調整。生產一片晶圓大約需要 120 天。然而,展望未來,會有更多的靈活性和選擇。
David Gibson - MST Financial, Analyst
(00:36:11)Okay, that's great. Thank you very much. Thank you, David.
(00:36:11)好的,這很好。非常感謝。謝謝你,David。
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:36:15)The next question is from CJ Muse of Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead with your question.
(00:36:15)下一個問題來自 Cantor Fitzgerald 的 CJ Muse。請提出您的問題。
CJ Muse - Cantor Fitzgerald, Analyst
(00:36:21)Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I have a question regarding your comment about the NBM pipeline exceeding supply through the end of the decade, as mentioned in the slide deck. Could you please elaborate on that? Also, how is this influencing your perspective on bit supply for the industry over the next several years? And, how are you adjusting, if at all, your CapEx plans? I understand you mentioned mid-single-digit growth, implying roughly $2.5 to $3 billion in gross CapEx. These are relatively modest figures.
(00:36:21)下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。我有一個問題,關於您提到的 NBM 管道在十年末超過供應的評論,如幻燈片中所述。您能否進一步闡述一下?此外,這如何影響您對未來幾年行業位元供應的看法?而且,如果有的話,您如何調整您的資本支出計劃?我理解您提到中單位數增長,這意味著大約 25 億到 30 億美元的總資本支出。這些數字相對較為謙遜。
CJ Muse - Cantor Fitzgerald, Analyst
(00:36:57)We would appreciate your thoughts on how this visibility is shaping your views on bit growth and supply. Okay.
(00:36:57)我們希望聽聽您對這種可見性如何塑造您對位元增長和供應的看法。好的。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:37:08)Well, CJ, my first comment is that the process is working. Just two or three quarters ago, we discussed implementing this business model, and we had some customers aligned with this approach. We've made significant progress since then, as we mentioned after our investor day. Customers have approached us offering NBMs, which now represents just one of the ways we conduct business. We serve many customers with varying volume levels and product needs, and we aim to meet them where they are. There's no question about that.
(00:37:08)好吧,CJ,我的第一個評論是這個過程正在運行。就在兩三個季度前,我們討論了實施這種商業模式,我們有一些客戶與這種方法對齊。自那時以來,我們取得了顯著的進展,正如我們在投資者日後提到的。客戶已經主動接觸我們,提供 NBM,這現在代表了我們進行業務的方式之一。我們為許多客戶提供不同的產量水平和產品需求,我們的目標是滿足他們的需求。這一點毫無疑問。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:37:46)However, it's encouraging to see a robust pipeline extending through 2030 and beyond, with customers providing demand signals and financial commitments. Regarding the earlier question, these developments will enable us, if we choose, to begin adjusting supply and demand dynamics. But we are not at that stage yet. We still need to complete negotiations. We need to secure commitments. Everything must be fully aligned. That said, the process is progressing well, and we are pleased with the current status, which provides much greater visibility for our planning.
(00:37:46)然而,看到一個穩健的管道延伸到 2030 年及以後,客戶提供需求信號和財務承諾,這令人鼓舞。關於之前的問題,這些發展將使我們能夠,如果我們選擇的話,開始調整供需動態。但我們還沒有到那個階段。我們仍然需要完成談判。我們需要確保承諾。一切必須完全對齊。話雖如此,這個過程進展良好,我們對當前狀態感到滿意,這為我們的規劃提供了更大的可見性。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:38:30)However, the process is still ongoing. It remains underway. As I mentioned, we will continue to provide updates over the next few quarters as we make further progress.
(00:38:30)然而,這個過程仍在進行中。它仍在進行中。正如我提到的,我們將繼續在接下來的幾個季度提供更新,隨著我們的進一步進展。
CJ Muse - Cantor Fitzgerald, Analyst
(00:38:42)Just a quick follow-up for Luis. Regarding these contracts, considering some include deposits, are you able to use those deposits for buybacks, or is that cash restricted? Thank you very much.
(00:38:42)只是對 Luis 的快速跟進。關於這些合同,考慮到一些包括押金,您能否使用這些押金進行回購,還是這些現金受到限制?非常感謝。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:38:55)In theory, we could, CJ, but as explained at Analyst Day, the vast majority are financial guarantees held by third-party financial institutions, so they do not appear on our balance sheet. The only amounts on the balance sheet are prepayments, which represent a very small portion. However, there are no legal restrictions on those funds.
(00:38:55)理論上,我們可以,CJ,但正如在分析師日上所解釋的,大多數是由第三方金融機構持有的財務擔保,因此它們不會出現在我們的資產負債表上。資產負債表上唯一的金額是預付款,這只佔很小的一部分。然而,這些資金沒有法律限制。
CJ Muse - Cantor Fitzgerald, Analyst
(00:39:20)Great. Thanks so
(00:39:20)很好。謝謝你。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:39:20)much. Thank you. Thanks, CJ.
(00:39:20)非常感謝。謝謝你,CJ。
Mehdi Hosseini - SIG, Analyst
(00:39:22)Okay.
(00:39:22)好的。
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:39:24)Our next question comes from Karl Ackerman from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead with your question.
(00:39:24)我們的下一個問題來自 BNP Paribas 的 Karl Ackerman。請提出你的問題。
Karl Ackerman - BNP Paribas, Analyst
(00:39:30)Yes, thank you. It's encouraging to see increasing NAND content per XPU and AI servers to support KV cache demand, which I believe contrasts with reductions in memory content in some server SKUs. But Dave, could you discuss how you see enterprise SSD content per server progressing in 2027? In the context of this agentic AI proliferation? Because it's certainly becoming a larger portion of your portfolio.
(00:39:30)是的,謝謝。看到每個 XPU 和 AI 伺服器中增加的 NAND 內容以支持 KV 快取需求,這是令人鼓舞的,我相信這與某些伺服器 SKU 中記憶體內容的減少形成對比。但是,Dave,你能談談你對 2027 年企業 SSD 每台伺服器內容的看法嗎?在這種代理 AI 普及的背景下?因為這無疑成為你們投資組閤中更大的一部分。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:40:00)Yeah, that's a big question, Karl. I mean, look, what we're doing is, you know, there's no doubt that in inference and agent orchestration, our product is tied to CPU demand for those types of applications. I mean, we know at a pretty granular level the amount of demand that we expect per CPU—something like 60 to 90 gigabytes per CPU is what we see in those kinds of applications. I haven't run the math against what the server TAM is and the elasticity between those two, but we can follow up on that.
(00:40:00)是的,這是一個大問題,Karl。我的意思是,看看我們正在做的事情,毫無疑問,在推理和代理編排中,我們的產品與這些應用類型的 CPU 需求息息相關。我的意思是,我們知道在相當細微的層面上每個 CPU 的需求量。我們預期每個 CPU 的需求量大約是 60 到 90GB,這是我們在這類應用中看到的。我還沒有計算伺服器的市場總量(TAM)以及這兩者之間的彈性,但我們可以在這方面進一步跟進。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:40:40)But as I said earlier, we continue to see more NAND being integrated into the inference architecture in all parts of the architecture and in very different ways, right? TLC, QLC, and as I mentioned earlier, now people are looking for high endurance solutions that fit parts of the workload where they don't need to use DRAM and can use that type of NAND. So it's all very encouraging, and we'll continue to stay close, but we'll do some work on the two TAM analysis and the trade-offs between them. Sure.
(00:40:40)但正如我之前所說,我們繼續看到更多的 NAND 被整合到推理架構中。在架構的各個部分以非常不同的方式,對吧?TLC、QLC,正如我之前提到的,現在人們正在尋找適合某些工作負載的高耐用性解決方案,這些工作負載不需要使用 DRAM,而可以使用這類 NAND。所以這一切都非常令人鼓舞,我們將繼續保持密切關注,但我們會在兩個市場總量分析及其之間的權衡上做一些工作。當然。
Karl Ackerman - BNP Paribas, Analyst
(00:41:17)If I may, a quick follow-up. Do you have an updated view or progress on your goal for enterprise SSD share? I mean, can you achieve perhaps that low to mid-teens share in 2027? Because you're seeing quite a bit of success right now. Thank you.
(00:41:17)如果可以的話,快速跟進一下。你對企業 SSD 市場份額的目標有更新的看法或進展嗎?我的意思是,你能在 2027 年達到大約 10% 到 15% 的市場份額嗎?因為你現在看到相當多的成功。謝謝。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:41:33)Yeah, we've tried not to. I mean, in the past, many years ago, we put some share goals out there, and I've tried very hard not to put share goals out there because sometimes it leads to perverse choices in the portfolio. We want to maximize... the value of the portfolio across all time horizons: near-term, mid-term, and long-term. So we want to keep some balance in it. Clearly, we're going to mix higher into data center. I mean, you see that. We talked about that earlier. I think 17x growth year over year.
(00:41:33)是的,我們已經努力不去這樣做。我的意思是,很多年前,我們曾經提出一些市場份額目標,我非常努力地不去設定市場份額目標,因為有時這會導致投資組閤中的不當選擇。我們希望最大化...投資組合在所有時間範疇內的價值:短期、中期和長期。所以我們希望保持一定的平衡。顯然,我們將在數據中心中增加更高的比例。我的意思是,你可以看到這一點。我們之前談過這個。我認為是 17 倍的年增長。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:42:03)You don't see 17x very often in a business at this scale. And as I said, I expect that to go higher as we go through 2027. And the balance point, in some ways, will depend quarter by quarter on what we see and then what NBMs we sign, right? Those will give us a lot of visibility over the next several years regarding where we see that mix going. So it's going higher, but I'm not going to put a specific target out there. Thank you.
(00:42:03)在這種規模的業務中,你不會經常看到 17 倍的增長。正如我所說,我預計這個數字會在 2027 年之後更高。而且在某些方面,平衡點將根據我們每個季度看到的情況以及我們簽署的 NBM 而有所不同,對吧?這些將在未來幾年內為我們提供很多可見性,讓我們瞭解這種混合的走向。所以這個比例會上升,但我不會設定具體的目標。謝謝。
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:42:34)Our next question comes from Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho. Please go ahead with your question.
(00:42:34)我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Vijay Rakesh。請提出你的問題。
Vijay Rakesh - Mizuho, Analyst
(00:42:39)Yeah, hi, Dave. It's just a great quadrant guide. Just a quick question. As you look at data center, 2027 looks like you mentioned 40% demand bit growth, which is massive. As you look at this BiCS8, BiCS9, BiCS10 transition, do they help you drive some bits to meet that demand? How is the supply on that side, I guess? A quick follow-up.
(00:42:39)是的,嗨,Dave。這真是一個很好的象限指南。只是個簡單的問題。當你看數據中心時,2027 年看起來你提到的需求增長是 40%,這是巨大的。當你看這個 BiCS8、BiCS9、BiCS10 的過渡時,它們是否幫助你推動一些出價以滿足這一需求?我想問一下那一邊的供應情況如何?快速跟進一下。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:43:06)I mean, BiCS8 and BiCS9 are significant parts of our data center strategy, enabling faster interface speeds with the same cell, and CBA provides us with that flexibility. We discussed that at the investor day. So, in that sense, yes, those are key components of the strategy. There's no doubt about it. As I mentioned earlier, it's about delivering the right product to the right customer. And the TLC product has been performing very well for quite some time now. Now we're seeing the ramp-up of QLC, and we'll see some ramp of BiCS9, but BiCS10 is still a bit further out.
(00:43:06)我的意思是,BiCS8 和 BiCS9 是我們數據中心策略的重要部分,使得在相同的單元上實現更快的接口速度,而 CBA 為我們提供了這種靈活性。我們在投資者日上討論過這個。所以,從這個意義上說,是的,這些是策略的關鍵組成部分。毫無疑問。正如我之前提到的,這是關於將正確的產品交付給正確的客戶。TLC 產品已經表現得非常好有一段時間了。現在我們看到 QLC 的增長,而 BiCS9 也會有一些增長,但 BiCS10 還需要一段時間。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:43:49)We announced BiCS10, but we're still ramping BiCS8. So, we have some way to go before reaching those future BiCS nodes.
(00:43:49)我們已經宣佈了 BiCS10,但我們仍在推進 BiCS8。所以,在達到那些未來的 BiCS 節點之前,我們還有一段路要走。
Vijay Rakesh - Mizuho, Analyst
(00:43:59)Got it. Regarding endurance, as you mentioned, some of your peers have commented. Speaking about SLC NAND, do you have any thoughts on how that will play out next year? Obviously, that could tighten the NAND market further, in addition to the overall demand growth you're seeing.
(00:43:59)明白了。關於耐用性,正如你提到的,你的一些同行也有評論。談到 SLC NAND,你對明年這會如何發展有什麼看法?顯然,這可能會進一步收緊 NAND 市場,除了你所看到的整體需求增長。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:44:20)Thanks. I think it's a bit early to have a strong view on that. We are talking to some customers who are giving us signals regarding demand for SLC. Demand for SLC? Clearly, when you start mixing SLC, it reduces supply since there's a trade ratio of three to one or four to one compared to TLC or QLC. So, it will impact the overall market supply depending on how much SLC is used and deployed. However, it's too early to provide a specific forecast at this time. What I would say is that it's an architectural discussion.
(00:44:20)謝謝。我認為現在對此有強烈看法還為時尚早。我們正在與一些客戶交談,他們給我們發出有關 SLC 需求的信號。SLC 的需求?顯然,當你開始混合 SLC 時,供應會減少,因為與 TLC 或 QLC 相比,貿易比率是三比一或四比一。所以,這將影響整體市場供應,具體取決於使用和部署多少 SLC。不過,目前提供具體預測還為時尚早。我想說的是,這是一個架構討論。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:45:01)Customers are requesting a better understanding of the technology and how it could fit parts of their use cases as they build out their inference architecture. We'll update you over the next couple of quarters as this develops. It's definitely something to keep an eye on. All right, thank you.
(00:45:01)客戶希望更好地瞭解技術,以及它如何適應他們在構建推理架構時的使用案例。隨著這一進展,我們會在接下來的幾個季度更新你。這絕對是值得關注的事情。好的,謝謝。
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:45:22)Our next question comes from Jim Schneider from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.
(00:45:22)我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jim Schneider。請提出你的問題。
Jim Schneider - Goldman Sachs, Analyst
(00:45:28)Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering, on a more tactical basis, your consumer business has seasonality in Q1 historically, and the PC business does too, but data center is in secular growth mode. Luis, based on your visibility, could you provide any color on whether you expect fiscal Q3 to be sequentially up, down, or flat?
(00:45:28)下午好。謝謝你回答我的問題。我想知道,從戰術的角度來看,你的消費者業務在歷史上第一季度有季節性,而 PC 業務也是如此,但數據中心則處於持續增長模式。Luis,根據你的可見性,你能提供任何信息,讓我們知道你預期第一季度是環比上升、下降還是持平嗎?
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:45:55)You mean fiscal Q3?
(00:45:55)你是指財政第三季度嗎?
Jim Schneider - Goldman Sachs, Analyst
(00:45:58)Yes, the March quarter.
(00:45:58)是的,三月季度。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:46:00)Historically, our Q3 is normally our weakest sequential quarter. For example, last quarter our bits were down 19% sequentially. We're not providing guidance for Q3, but for modeling purposes, I would be conservative about sequential growth from Q2 to Q3.
(00:46:00)歷史上,我們的第三季度通常是我們最弱的環比季度。例如,上個季度我們的出價環比下降了 19%。我們不會對第三季度提供指導,但就建模而言,我會對第二季度到第三季度的環比增長持保守態度。
Jim Schneider - Goldman Sachs, Analyst
(00:46:26)Thank you. And then just as a matter of... principle regarding the buybacks. It's good to see continued execution there. I'm curious, as you start to run down the authorization, would you expect the board to renew their authorization on a quarterly basis? Or could you provide more color on how you're thinking about executing buybacks given the much lower stock price today? Thank you.
(00:46:26)謝謝。然後,作為一個...關於回購的原則。很高興看到那裡持續的執行。我很好奇,當你開始使用授權時,你是否預期董事會會按季度更新他們的授權?或者你能否提供更多信息,讓我們瞭解在今天的股價大幅下跌的情況下,你是如何考慮執行回購的?謝謝。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:46:54)Yes. We have a very clear strategy. One hundred percent of excess cash will be returned to shareholders. We will execute that aggressively and appropriately. We know how to engage with the board. We have meetings every quarter. So, I don't expect any obstacles from our side regarding execution. I expect us to continue to be I don't expect us to be; we will continue to be faithful to our strategy, which is to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. We're off to a good start over the last couple of quarters.
(00:46:54)是的。我們有一個非常明確的策略。一百百分之百的多餘現金將返還給股東。我們將積極且適當地執行這一點。我們知道如何與董事會互動。我們每季度都有會議。所以,我不預期在執行方面會有任何障礙。我預期我們將繼續保持我不預期我們會;我們將繼續忠於我們的策略,即將 100% 的超額現金回饋給股東。在過去幾個季度,我們有一個良好的開端。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:47:34)Totally. I think we've bought back 4% of the shares outstanding from where we started, and we will continue to execute that program appropriately.
(00:47:34)完全如此。我認為我們已經回購了 4% 的流通股,從我們開始的時候起,我們將繼續適當地執行這個計劃。
Speaker02 - Operator
(00:47:46)Thank you. Our next question comes from Krish Sankar from TD
(00:47:46)謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 TD 的 Krish Sankar。
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:47:55)Cowen. Please go ahead with your question.
(00:47:55)Cowen。請提出你的問題。
Steven Chin - TD Cowen, Analyst
(00:47:58)Hi. Thanks so much for taking my questions. This is Steven Chin calling on behalf of Krish. First question I have for Dave. Looking at your CSP customer base, I wanted to get some color on the current demand between TLC versus QLC bits. Going forward with the NBMs in place, does the TLC versus QLC mix shift meaningfully later this decade?
(00:47:58)嗨。非常感謝你們回答我的問題。我是 Steven Chin,代表 Krish 打電話。我對 Dave 的第一個問題是。看著你們的 CSP 客戶基礎,我想了解一下 TLC 與 QLC 位元之間的當前需求。在 NBM 到位的情況下,這十年後期 TLC 與 QLC 的比例會有顯著變化嗎?
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:48:25)We're still around that 70-30 split between TLC and QLC. TLC has been a major driver of the portfolio. We are hearing more from customers about a reacceleration of QLC in different use cases. We'll see how that develops through the end of the decade. But that's the current situation. That 70-30 ratio is a reliable figure. Of course, there is some quarter-to-quarter fluctuation, with slight ups and downs. That's been the trend, and we expect it to continue at least through the rest of this fiscal year. Let me set that time horizon, and we'll continue to monitor customer sentiment on QLC.
(00:48:25)我們仍然保持在 70-30 的比例之間,TLC 與 QLC。TLC 一直是投資組合的主要驅動力。我們聽到更多客戶提到 QLC 在不同用例中的重新加速。我們將看看這在十年結束前如何發展。但這就是當前的情況。這 70-30 的比例是一個可靠的數字。當然,季度之間會有一些波動,略有起伏。這一直是趨勢,我們預期它至少會持續到本財年的剩餘時間。讓我設定一下這個時間範圍,我們將繼續監測客戶對 QLC 的情緒。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:49:10)Okay. We will continue to have those discussions. The Stargate product, which is our QLC offering, has been very well received. Not many quarters ago, we were still going through qualifications. That process is now 100% behind us. Customers are ramping up. It's a very well-received product and a key part of the portfolio.
(00:49:10)好的。我們將繼續進行這些討論。Stargate 產品,即我們的 QLC 產品,受到了非常好的反響。不久前,我們仍在進行資格認證。那個過程現在已經完全結束。客戶正在逐步增加。這是一個非常受歡迎的產品,也是投資組合的關鍵部分。
Steven Chin - TD Cowen, Analyst
(00:49:40)Got it. As a quick follow-up, I have a question about the mobile edge market. Given the double-digit unit declines in that market this year, mostly in the entry and mid-tier segments, I'm curious: based on demand signals from your customers, can your mobile bits still grow overall next year?
(00:49:40)明白了。作為快速跟進,我有一個關於移動邊緣市場的問題。鑒於今年該市場的單位數量下降了兩位數,主要是在入門和中端市場,我很好奇:根據客戶的需求信號,你們的移動位元明年還能整體增長嗎?
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:50:09)Yeah, I think, let's talk about the market first. You got it. The low end is under pressure, leading to unit declines, but content per unit is increasing. When you add it all up, we expect exabyte growth in that market next year despite a slight decline in unit count. Regarding our portfolio, it's similar to data center. I don't want to make projections on individual markets. We will manage the portfolio with agility and flexibility. We've been clear that we want balance in the portfolio. We will optimize the financial outcome over the short, mid, and long term, integrating these to achieve the best results.
(00:50:09)是的,我認為,我們先談談市場。你說得對。低端市場面臨壓力,導致單位數量下降,但每個單位的內容在增加。當你把所有因素加起來時,我們預期明年該市場的 exabyte 增長,儘管單位數量略有下降。關於我們的投資組合,它與數據中心相似。我不想對個別市場做出預測。我們將靈活地管理投資組合。我們已經明確表示希望在投資組閤中保持平衡。我們將在短期、中期和長期內優化財務結果,整合這些以實現最佳結果。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:50:58)We'll update you on the mobile mix as we move forward.
(00:50:58)隨著我們的推進,我們將更新移動組合的情況。
Steven Chin - TD Cowen, Analyst
(00:51:03)Perfect. Thank you so much.
(00:51:03)完美。非常感謝。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:51:05)Thank you.
(00:51:05)謝謝。
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:51:07)Our next question comes from Wamsi Mohan from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.
(00:51:07)我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。請提出你的問題。
Wamsi Mohan - Bank of America, Analyst
(00:51:13)Yes, thank you very much. On your slide, you mentioned that leading AI companies could indicate further demand upside. I was wondering if these are AI labs or NeoClouds, and if any credit concerns around the NeoClouds are filtering back to you in any way at the moment? I will follow up on that.
(00:51:13)是的,非常感謝。在您的幻燈片上,您提到領先的人工智慧公司可能會顯示出進一步的需求上升。我想知道這些是人工智慧實驗室還是 NeoClouds,並且目前有關 NeoClouds 的任何信用問題是否以某種方式回饋給您?我會跟進這個問題。
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:51:35)We haven't seen any such issues. On the contrary, we are seeing very strong demand from our customers. As I mentioned, our largest customers are essentially all investment-grade companies generating very strong cash flow. Therefore, we are not experiencing any impacts from credit issues, even if they exist in the market. In fact, demand from our customers is strengthening compared to a quarter ago.
(00:51:35)我們沒有看到任何這樣的問題。相反,我們看到客戶的需求非常強勁。正如我提到的,我們最大的客戶基本上都是產生非常強勁現金流的投資級公司。因此,即使市場上存在信用問題,我們也沒有受到任何影響。事實上,與一個季度前相比,我們客戶的需求正在增強。
Wamsi Mohan - Bank of America, Analyst
(00:52:05)To clarify, Luis, when you say leading AI companies, are you referring to AI labs specifically?
(00:52:05)為了澄清,Luis,當您說領先的人工智慧公司時,您是特指人工智慧實驗室嗎?
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:52:11)We sell to everyone in our business. We sell to hyperscalers. We sell to model makers. We sell to all types of customers.
(00:52:11)我們向我們業務中的每個人銷售。我們向超大規模客戶銷售。我們向模型製造商銷售。我們向各類客戶銷售。
Wamsi Mohan - Bank of America, Analyst
(00:52:23)Okay, thanks, Luis. Regarding linearity in the quarter, it seems receivables increased slightly. Should we expect this due to payment terms as more bits move under the New Business Model, or was there another reason this quarter?
(00:52:23)好的,謝謝你,Luis。關於本季度的線性,應收賬款似乎略有增加。我們應該預期這是由於支付條件,因為更多的位元轉入新的商業模式,還是本季度有其他原因?
Luis Visoso - SanDisk, CFO
(00:52:38)We saw a slight change in customer mix, which impacted receivables and linearity somewhat, but it is mostly due to customer mix.
(00:52:38)我們看到客戶組合略有變化,這在某種程度上影響了應收賬款和線性,但主要是由於客戶組合的變化。
Wamsi Mohan - Bank of America, Analyst
(00:52:52)Thank you very much.
(00:52:52)非常感謝。
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:52:54)Thanks, Ramzi. Our next question comes from Amit. Daryani from Evercore, please go ahead with your question.
(00:52:54)謝謝,Ramzi。我們的下一個問題來自 Amit。Daryani 來自 Evercore,請提出您的問題。
Amit Daryanani - Evercore, Analyst
(00:53:04)Thank you for that as well. David, to start on capital allocation, as you transition to a more predictable New Business Model-driven approach, does that change your view on capital structure? Historically, memory has been seen as cyclical, so balance sheet flexibility was important. But as you become structurally less cyclical, would that support a willingness to take on leverage and potentially accelerate capital returns, or do you remain comfortable with the $5 billion per quarter buyback, which is quite impressive?
(00:53:04)也謝謝您。David,關於資本配置,當您轉向更可預測的新商業模式驅動的方法時,這是否改變了您對資本結構的看法?歷史上,記憶體被視為週期性,因此資產負債表的靈活性很重要。但隨著您結構上變得不那麼週期性,這是否支持您願意承擔槓桿並可能加速資本回報,還是您仍然對每季度 50 億美元的回購感到滿意,這相當令人印象深刻?
Amit Daryanani - Evercore, Analyst
(00:53:34)At what point would you consider taking on more leverage to capitalize on being less cyclical?
(00:53:34)在什麼時候您會考慮承擔更多的槓桿,以利用不那麼週期性的優勢?
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:53:41)We have a financial model in place. We spent three and a half hours discussing this at our analyst day and committed to a financial model through 2030, which I believe is quite impressive. We plan to execute that and are very comfortable with our strategy of remaining debt-free, maintaining a strong balance sheet, and investing in our business. Our business is growing, and we have many opportunities for internal innovation, such as High Bandwidth Flash and 3D matrix memory, alongside the BiCS roadmap and other excellent products.
(00:53:41)我們有一個財務模型。我們在分析師日上花了三個半小時討論這個問題,並承諾到 2030 年有一個財務模型,我相信這相當令人印象深刻。我們計劃執行這個計劃,並對保持無債務、維持強勁的資產負債表和投資於我們的業務的策略感到非常滿意。我們的業務正在增長,我們有許多內部創新的機會,例如高帶寬閃存和 3D 矩陣記憶體,還有 BiCS 路線圖和其他優秀產品。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:54:21)After these investments, we intend to return 100% of the cash flow to the company’s shareholders. That is the plan. We will execute this plan for the foreseeable future until we decide to update it. I do not anticipate any changes in the near term.
(00:54:21)在這些投資之後,我們打算將 100% 的現金流回報給公司的股東。這就是計劃。我們將在可預見的未來執行這個計劃,直到我們決定更新它。我不預期在短期內會有任何變化。
Amit Daryanani - Evercore, Analyst
(00:54:46)Fair enough. Regarding High Bandwidth Flash, rather than estimating its size, could you explain what the key scaling variables are as inference models and context windows expand? Should we expect High Bandwidth Flash capacity to grow in line with GPU compute or potentially faster? I believe you mentioned initial sampling will start in 2027. What are the key milestones from that point to achieving a meaningful revenue ramp? Thank you.
(00:54:46)公平。關於高帶寬閃存,而不是估計其規模,您能否解釋隨著推理模型和上下文窗口擴展,關鍵的擴展變量是什麼?我們應該預期高帶寬閃存的容量與 GPU 計算增長一致,還是可能更快?我相信您提到初步取樣將在 2027 年開始。從那時起到實現有意義的收入增長的關鍵里程碑是什麼?謝謝。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:55:15)It is a bit early to answer your first question. But regarding the second question, we receive the die back. We have the base die, which we will tape out; this is the controller. We will assemble them, put the product in customers' hands, and they will begin evaluating how it integrates with their infrastructure. We have done extensive modeling, but having the actual product and performing integration work is crucial. That kind of feedback from the customer will then enable us to start answering some of the key questions, such as: what's the market opportunity?
(00:55:15)現在回答您的第一個問題還為時尚早。但關於第二個問題,我們收到晶片回饋。我們有基礎晶片,我們將進行晶片設計;這是控制器。我們將組裝它們,將產品交到客戶手中,他們將開始評估它如何與他們的基礎設施集成。我們已經進行了廣泛的建模,但擁有實際產品並進行集成工作是至關重要的。來自客戶的這種反饋將使我們能夠開始回答一些關鍵問題,例如:市場機會是什麼?
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:55:51)How quickly is it going to happen? What is the total addressable market (TAM)? Where exactly will the architecture fit? We will follow our customers on that, but the crucial step is to actually put a product in their hands, which then leads to a whole new set of conversations where we have the device that we're delivering, so instead of running simulations, we can see exactly how it performs in their infrastructure and whether it meets their expectations. That also helps us continue to expand the range of use cases.
(00:55:51)這將多快發生?總可尋址市場(TAM)是多少?架構將具體適合在哪裡?我們會跟隨客戶的需求,但關鍵步驟是實際將產品交到他們手中,這將引發一系列全新的對話,因為我們有了這個設備。因此,我們不再進行模擬,而是可以確切看到它在他們基礎設施中的表現,以及是否符合他們的期望。這也幫助我們繼續擴展使用案例的範圍。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:56:24)At this stage in the development process, you want to be cautious not to engage too much, as you could overwhelm your engineering team with numerous ideas on how the product might be used. Once we have an actual device to put in people's hands, we can broaden those conversations, which I believe will lead to more use cases for the product. But that is still to be determined. I think many developments begin once you reach the milestone of having a real product that people can use and understand how it impacts their objectives, which is to deliver a world-class inference architecture at the best possible cost point.
(00:56:24)在開發過程的這個階段,您需要謹慎,不要過度參與,因為這可能會使您的工程團隊面臨大量關於產品使用的想法。一旦我們有了實際的設備可以交給人們,我們就可以擴大這些對話,我相信這將導致更多的產品使用案例。但這仍然有待確定。我認為許多發展始於您達到擁有一個人們可以使用的真實產品的里程碑,並理解它如何影響他們的目標,即提供一個世界級的推理架構,並以最佳的成本點實現。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:57:09)We believe this is a fantastic technology for achieving that.
(00:57:09)我們相信這是一項實現該目標的絕佳技術。
Speaker03
(00:57:13)But, of course, we'll see when we get there and produce it. Perfect. Thank you very much.
(00:57:13)但當然,我們會在到達並生產它時再看看。完美。非常感謝。
Speaker02 - Operator
(00:57:23)Thank you.
(00:57:23)謝謝你。
Speaker01 - Operator
(00:57:23)Our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini from SIG. Please go ahead with your question.
(00:57:23)我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。請提出您的問題。
Mehdi Hosseini - SIG, Analyst
(00:57:32)Yes, thanks for taking my question. David, I want to go back to—sorry for the audio. David, I want to revisit what you said earlier. You mentioned that AI inferencing is being refined, having an impact, and that more SLC is needed. My question is: is this having an adverse impact on the adoption or growth of TLC, or is SLC demand additive to the demand driven by TLC?
(00:57:32)是的,謝謝您回答我的問題。大衛,我想回到——抱歉,音頻有點問題。大衛,我想重提您之前所說的。您提到 AI 推理正在被精煉,正在產生影響,並且需要更多的 SLC。我的問題是:這是否對TLC 的採用或增長產生了不利影響,還是 SLC 的需求是對 TLC 驅動的需求的附加?
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:58:11)No, I don't think it's cannibalizing other NAND products. I see it as an expansion of the TAM into areas requiring different technology attributes. You need different endurance. You need different performance. Our product can be run in SLC mode directly from the fab. So there is a lot of flexibility in the product. Our team is discovering this and beginning to understand how to apply it to get the attributes needed for specific problems. It's a more refined view of the architecture, but I don't see it as cannibalizing other parts of the NAND stack. If anything, and I want to be cautious since it's early, the question is whether it can replace places where DRAM is used.
(00:58:11)不,我不認為這會侵蝕其他 NAND 產品。我將其視為 TAM 擴展到需要不同技術屬性的領域。您需要不同的耐用性。您需要不同的性能。我們的產品可以直接從工廠以 SLC 模式運行。因此,產品具有很大的靈活性。我們的團隊正在發現這一點,並開始理解如何應用它以獲得特定問題所需的屬性。這是對架構的更精細的看法,但我不認為這會侵蝕 NAND 堆疊的其他部分。如果有的話,我想謹慎一點,因為這還很早,問題是它是否可以取代 DRAM 使用的地方。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:59:08)Can I get enough endurance? Can I get sufficient performance running NAND in SLC mode? Because the cost differential is huge—20 to 40 times. I see this as a very healthy sign in many ways, Mehdi. One aspect is that it is very real how you scale an architecture. When scaling an architecture, it must be done in the most cost-effective way possible. NAND is the most scalable semiconductor technology. So it is not surprising that people are finding more ways to use it. Scalable technologies tend to attract TAM.
(00:59:08)我能獲得足夠的耐用性嗎?我能在 SLC 模式下運行 NAND 以獲得足夠的性能嗎?因為成本差異巨大——20 到 40 倍。我在很多方面都將這視為一個非常健康的信號,Mehdi。一個方面是如何擴展架構是非常真實的。在擴展架構時,必須以最具成本效益的方式進行。NAND 是最具可擴展性的半導體技術。因此,人們發現更多的使用方式並不令人驚訝。可擴展技術往往會吸引 TAM。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(00:59:46)That is what is happening here as these architectures become more detailed and refined.
(00:59:46)隨著這些架構變得更加詳細和精緻,這正是這裡發生的事情。
Mehdi Hosseini - SIG, Analyst
(00:59:54)OK. Let me approach this from a different angle: if there is demand for more enduring SLC, and customers are waiting for commercialization of HBF, what flexibility does the JV have to add some SLC capacity to meet short-term demand?
(00:59:54)好的。讓我從另一個角度來看這個問題:如果對更耐用的 SLC 有需求,而客戶在等待 HBF 的商業化,合資企業有什麼靈活性可以增加一些 SLC 產能以滿足短期需求?
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(01:00:20)We don't think of it as SLC capacity per se. Our cells are flexible enough to run in any mode we want—SLC, MLC, or TLC. So we can supply the market with the wafers we have available. That's how we think about it. And, you know, we're... I understand the desire to address the supply question immediately, but it's still very early for that. These are currently just conversations, with customers exploring how they might use the technology and beginning to estimate their potential demand if they proceed this way.
(01:00:20)我們不將其視為 SLC 產能本身。我們的單元足夠靈活,可以以我們想要的任何模式運行——SLC、MLC 或 TLC。因此,我們可以向市場提供我們可用的晶圓。我們就是這樣看待這件事的。而且,你知道,我們...我理解立即解決供應問題的願望,但現在還為時尚早。目前這些只是與客戶的對話,他們正在探索如何使用這項技術,並開始估算如果這樣進行的潛在需求。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(01:01:01)It's something to keep an eye on. It will impact the market because a small amount of SLC is equivalent to a large amount of QLC. But I suppose there is more to come, Matty.
(01:01:01)這是一個需要關注的事情。這將影響市場,因為少量的 SLC 相當於大量的 QLC。不過,我想還會有更多的消息,Matty。
Speaker03
(01:01:17)Okay. Got it. Thank you. Thanks for all the details.
(01:01:17)好的。明白了。謝謝你。感謝提供所有細節。
Speaker01 - Operator
(01:01:30)At this point, ladies and gentlemen, we will conclude today's question and answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.
(01:01:30)此時,女士們先生們,我們將結束今天的問答環節。我想把話筒交回管理層,讓他們做最後的發言。
David Goeckeler - SanDisk, CEO
(01:01:40)All right, everyone, thank you for joining us on the call. We appreciate it. It was a great conversation, and we look forward to connecting with you throughout the quarter. Thank you.
(01:01:40)好的,大家,感謝你們參加此次通話。我們非常感謝。這是一場很棒的對話,我們期待在整個季度中與你們保持聯繫。謝謝你。
Speaker01 - Operator
(01:01:48)Thank you. With that, we will conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.
(01:01:48)謝謝你。到此,我們將結束今天的電話會議和簡報。感謝你們的參加。現在可以斷開你的電話線。