報告_大和_川湖2059_20260507

PDF 原檔:報告_大和_川湖2059_20260507_original.pdf

原始內容

Taiwan

King Slide Works (2059 TT)

Target price:

TWD5,888.00 (from TWD3,880.00)

Share price (7 May):

TWD4,840.00

|

Up/downside:

+21.7%

Upgrading: 1Q26 review; riding a growing TAM

  • Amazon ASIC ramp-up and TPU mix shift drive strong growth
  • Leading market share position benefits from regular server demand
  • Upgrading to Buy (1) rating; raising 12M TP to TWD5,888

What’s new: We review King Slide’s 1Q26 results after its earnings call.

What’s the impact: 1Q26 results beat expectations on FX gains. King Slide’s 1Q26 earnings came in at TWD3.5bn (EPS: TWD36.6), which was 10% and 18% higher than our and street expectations, respectively, due to higher-than-expected FX gains. While revenue was TWD5.5bn (up 10% QoQ and 38% YoY), largely on track with our expectations, the gross margin rose by 1.6pp QoQ due to the favourable FX trend (avg. USD/TWD FX rate was +2% in 1Q26 vs. +4% in 4Q25). However, the operating margin declined by 2.1pp to 67.1% due to a one-time freight expense of c.TWD200m. Lastly, net profit was boosted by higher-than-expected nonoperating gains of TWD697m (mainly FX gains of TWD476m).

Business outlook. As we highlighted in our first-take memo (link here), we expect King Slide’s market share loss with Nvidia to be fully priced in, while rising demand for regular servers and its dominant c.70% share in the AI server rail kit market position the company well to sustain positive revenue momentum. We believe King Slide’s April sales strength was driven by its role as the main rail kit supplier for Amazon’s new ASIC AI servers, a contribution we expect to become a key growth driver into 2026. On the ASIC front, we forecast revenue to grow 73% YoY in 2026, reflecting shipment volume increases and ASP expansion, with TPU potentially playing a meaningful role in the ASIC revenue mix by 2027 as the overall TAM continues to scale. For CPUs, expanding demand further benefits King Slide, given its commanding c.60% global share of the regular server market, which underpins our 78%/41% regular server revenue YoY growth estimates for 2026/27E, reflecting the strength we are seeing in the server supply chain. Beyond compute, Nvidia’s GTC showcase of comprehensive rack solutions, including switches and power, could generate an extra 300600k sets of rail kit demand by 2028E, representing an upside opportunity for King Slide. Taken together, these tailwinds across AI and regular server markets reinforce our positive outlook on King Slide.

What we recommend: We raise our 2026-27E EPS by 21-27% to factor in the 1Q26 results. Therefore, we raise our 12M TP to TWD5,888, based on a PER of 30x (high end of its past-3-year range of 10-32x; raised from 26x on a higher earnings growth trajectory), applied to our 4-quarter forward EPS forecast. Given the 2025-28E earnings CAGR of 30%, implying a PEG of 1.0, we think our valuation is not demanding and upgrade King Slide to Buy (1). Key downside risk: worse-than-expected demand for AI servers.

How we differ: Our 2026-27E EPS are 15-19% above consensus, likely as we are more positive on King Slide’s revenue.

7 May 2026

Daiwa

5

3

2

1

Buy

Sheng Cheng

(886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Allan Wang

(886) 2 8758 6249 allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec26E27E28E
Revenue change16.125.6n.a.
Net profit change21.327n.a.
Core EPS (FD) change21.327n.a.

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range1,880.00-4,840.00
Market cap (USDbn)14.66
3m avg daily turnover (USDm)87.22
Shares outstanding (m)95
Major shareholderMing Wei Global Co., Ltd. (6.7%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec26E27E28E
Revenue (m)27,58933,51438,185
Operating profit (m)18,85522,84126,018
Net profit (m)16,44219,22721,453
Core EPS (fully-diluted)172.529201.763225.115
EPS change (%)67.016.911.6
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%)19.314.5(10.6)
PER (x)28.124.021.5
Dividend yield (%)1.11.21.4
DPS51.060.066.0
PBR (x)11.68.76.8
EV/EBITDA (x)22.017.614.9
ROE (%)48.641.435.3

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

King Slide Works (2059 TT): 7 May 2026

King Slide: Daiwa revenue and earnings forecasts revisions vs. the consensus

2026E2026E2026E2027E2027E2027E2028E2028E2028E
(TWDm)PreviousNewConsensusPreviousNewConsensusPreviousNewConsensus
Revenue23,76427,58923,99026,69133,51428,594n.a.38,18541,802
Diff (%)16.1%15.0%25.6%17.2%n.a.-8.7%
Gross Margin (%)75.1%76.1%76.2%74.9%75.1%75.7%n.a.75.1%75.5%
Operating profit16,15918,85516,61518,13922,84120,416n.a.26,01827,436
Op Margin (%)68.0%68.3%69.3%68.0%68.2%71.4%n.a.68.1%65.6%
Net profit13,55416,44213,78415,14619,22716,799n.a.21,45323,991
EPS (TWD)142.23172.53144.65158.93201.76176.29n.a.225.11251.75
Diff (%)21.3%19.3%27.0%14.5%n.a.-10.6%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

King Slide: quarterly and annual P&L statement

2026E2026E2026E2026E2027E20252026E2027E2028E
(TWDm)1Q2QE3QE4QE1QE2QE3QE4QE
Net revenue5,4507,1957,1227,8227,7758,5788,4638,69817,50127,58933,51438,185
COGS-1,213-1,747-1,729-1,906-1,908-2,123-2,096-2,209-4,192-6,594-8,336-9,495
Gross profit4,2375,4495,3935,9165,8686,4556,3676,48813,30920,99425,17828,690
Operating expenses-582-504-506-548-544-596-588-609-1,220-2,139-2,337-2,672
Operating profit3,6544,9454,8875,3685,3235,8595,7795,87912,08918,85522,84126,018
Non-operating profit6971953983993963981981983431,6891,191795
Pre-tax profit4,3525,1395,2865,7685,7206,2575,9776,07812,42320,54524,03126,813
Income taxes-866-1,027-1,057-1,153-1,143-1,251-1,195-1,215-2,586-4,103-4,804-5,360
Net profit3,4864,1124,2294,6154,5765,0064,7824,8639,83716,44219,22721,453
Net EPS (TWD)36.5843.1544.3848.4248.0252.5350.1851.03103.23172.53201.76225.11
Operating Ratios
Gross margin77.7%75.7%75.7%75.6%75.5%75.3%75.2%74.6%76.0%76.1%75.1%75.1%
Operating margin67.1%68.7%68.6%68.6%68.5%68.3%68.3%67.6%69.1%68.3%68.2%68.1%
Pre-tax margin79.9%71.4%74.2%73.7%73.6%72.9%70.6%69.9%71.0%74.5%71.7%70.2%
Net margin64.0%57.1%59.4%59.0%58.9%58.4%56.5%55.9%56.2%59.6%57.4%56.2%
YoY (%)
Net revenue38%70%63%58%43%19%19%11%73%58%21%14%
Gross profit41%66%66%57%38%18%18%10%90%58%20%14%
Operating profit34%67%64%57%46%18%18%10%98%56%21%14%
Pre-tax profit39%472%32%31%31%22%13%5%59%65%17%12%
Net profit39%570%32%31%31%22%13%5%60%67%17%12%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue10%32%-1%10%-1%10%-1%3%
Gross profit12%29%-1%10%-1%10%-1%2%
Operating profit7%35%-1%10%-1%10%-1%2%
Pre-tax profit-1%18%3%9%-1%9%-4%2%
Net profit-1%18%3%9%-1%9%-4%2%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

King Slide: 1Q26 comparison table

(TWDm)ActualQoQ%YoY%DaiwaDiff%ConsensusDiff%
Revenue5,45010%38%5,495-1%5,1147%
Gross profit4,23712%41%4,1562%3,8749%
Gross margin (%)77.7%75.6%75.8%
Operating profit3,6547%34%4,048-10%3,5204%
Operating margin (%)67.1%68.4%68.8%
Pre-tax profit4,352-1%39%3,95110%4,742-8%
Net profit3,486-1%39%3,16110%2,94518%
EPS (TWD)36.58-1%39%33.1710%30.9118%

Source: Company data, Daiwa forecasts, Bloomberg

King Slide: 1-year forward PER bands

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

King Slide: revenue breakdown

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E
Server railkit shipment (k)3,938.04,477.03,556.92,711.96,021.210,264.314,291.617,836.8
HGX railkit shipment (k)0.00.090.0360.0270.0248.5180.085.0
NVL railkit shipment (k)0.00.00.00.0636.71,392.21,560.81,522.5

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E
Regular server railkit sales4,4895,0812,6782,4516,12610,93415,43520,334
AI server railkit sales009825,6689,12214,54215,78515,470
Other Revenue1,8532,7172,1032,0112,2522,1122,2942,381
Total Revenue6,3427,7995,76310,12917,50127,58933,51438,185
Other income00000000
COGS(2,987)(3,333)(2,231)(3,128)(4,192)(6,594)(8,336)(9,495)
SG&A(386)(474)(408)(550)(743)(1,332)(1,332)(1,527)
Other op.expenses(250)(239)(235)(351)(477)(807)(1,005)(1,146)
Operating profit2,7203,7532,8886,10112,08918,85522,84126,018
Net-interest inc./(exp.)10159495653692711716716
Assoc/forex/extraord./others(134)1,162431,035(350)97847578
Pre-tax profit2,5965,0733,4267,78912,43120,54524,03126,813
Tax(523)(1,017)(721)(1,633)(2,586)(4,103)(4,804)(5,360)
Min. int./pref. div./others00000000
Net profit (reported)2,0734,0562,7046,1569,84516,44219,22721,453
Net profit (adjusted)2,0734,0562,7046,1569,84516,44219,22721,453
EPS (reported)(TWD)21.74842.56328.37864.594103.309172.529201.763225.115
EPS (adjusted)(TWD)21.74842.56328.37864.594103.309172.529201.763225.115
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD)21.74842.56328.37864.594103.309172.529201.763225.115
DPS (TWD)6.12010.88020.00014.19032.20051.00060.00066.000
EBIT2,7203,7532,8886,10112,08918,85522,84126,018
EBITDA2,9343,9773,1576,42912,55219,45923,66527,030

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E
Profit before tax2,5965,0733,4267,78912,43120,54524,03126,813
Depreciation and amortisation2142242693284646048241,012
Tax paid(523)(1,017)(721)(1,633)(2,586)(4,103)(4,804)(5,360)
Change in working capital(997)(209)52(1,598)2,097(1,079)(649)(502)
Other operational CF items228(133)252301000(0)
Cash flow from operations1,5183,9383,2785,18712,40515,96619,40321,963
Capex(768)(824)(375)(354)(1,750)(2,759)(2,346)(2,673)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals(1,495)3892158840000
Other investing CF items1(1)(0)(0)0000
Cash flow from investing(2,261)(436)(161)530(1,750)(2,759)(2,346)(2,673)
Change in debt257448(32)(130)0000
Net share issues/(repurchases)00000000
Dividends paid(583)(1,037)(1,906)(1,352)(3,069)(4,860)(5,718)(6,290)
Other financing CF items(33)(35)(28)(26)0000
Cash flow from financing(359)(624)(1,966)(1,508)(3,069)(4,860)(5,718)(6,290)
Forex effect/others(22)788(141)6760000
Change in cash(1,124)3,6661,0104,8867,5878,34711,33913,000
Free cash flow7513,1142,9034,83310,65513,20717,05719,290

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

King Slide Works (2059 TT): 7 May 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E
Cash & short-term investment9,42112,69813,49417,49525,07433,42144,75957,760
Inventory9269201,0121,2319191,4451,8272,081
Accounts receivable1,7741,8661,6563,1801,6782,6453,2143,662
Other current assets3136404343434343
Total current assets12,15115,52016,20221,94927,71337,55449,84363,545
Fixed assets2,4462,9553,1923,2874,5746,7298,2519,911
Goodwill & intangibles32322222
Other non-current assets8327591,1841,2341,2341,2341,2341,234
Total assets15,43319,23620,58126,47233,52345,51959,33074,693
Short-term debt00000000
Accounts payable4693743094417241,1381,4391,639
Other current liabilities1,2111,5991,8662,7082,7082,7082,7082,708
Total current liabilities1,6801,9732,1743,1493,4323,8464,1474,347
Long-term debt452895741615615615615615
Other non-current liabilities6987301,2291,4161,4161,4161,4161,416
Total liabilities2,8303,5984,1455,1805,4625,8776,1786,378
Share capital953953953953953953953953
Reserves/R.E./others11,65014,68515,48320,33927,10838,68952,19967,362
Shareholders’ equity12,60315,63816,43621,29228,06139,64253,15268,315
Minority interests00000000
Total equity & liabilities15,43319,23620,58126,47233,52345,51959,33074,693
EV452,269449,434448,485444,358436,779428,432417,093404,093
Net debt/(cash)(8,969)(11,804)(12,753)(16,880)(24,459)(32,806)(44,145)(57,145)
BVPS (TWD)132.253164.101172.473223.431294.457415.986557.749716.864

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec202120222023202420252026E2027E2028E
Sales (YoY)32.123.0(26.1)75.872.857.621.513.9
EBITDA (YoY)36.035.5(20.6)103.695.355.021.614.2
Operating profit (YoY)38.638.0(23.0)111.298.256.021.113.9
Net profit (YoY)78.095.7(33.3)127.659.967.016.911.6
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY)78.095.7(33.3)127.659.967.016.911.6
Gross-profit margin52.957.361.369.176.076.175.175.1
EBITDA margin46.351.054.863.571.770.570.670.8
Operating-profit margin42.948.150.160.269.168.368.268.1
Net profit margin32.752.046.960.856.359.657.456.2
ROAE17.528.716.932.639.948.641.435.3
ROAA14.423.413.626.232.841.636.732.0
ROCE22.325.417.131.247.854.748.642.4
ROIC73.580.360.7n.an.an.an.an.a
Net debt to equityn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Effective tax rate20.220.021.121.020.820.020.020.0
Accounts receivable (days)83.085.2111.687.150.728.631.932.9
Current ratio (x)7.27.97.57.08.19.812.014.6
Net interest cover (x)n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.
Net dividend payout50.150.047.050.049.949.434.832.7
Free cash flow yield0.20.70.61.02.32.93.74.2

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1986, King Slide Works started as a rail kit manufacturer. Leveraging its years of mechanism design experience, the company soon started manufacturing server rail kit in 2000. With 40 years of development, King Slide’s product portfolio now comprises server rail kit, kitchen rail kit and hinge. The company is headquartered in Kaohsiung city with two production sites including King Slide Works Co., LTD (ball bearing slide and hinge) and King Slide Technology Co., LTD (server rail kit and functional kitchen rail kit). King Slide also owns sales offices in the US and China. It was listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange in 2008.

King Slide Works (2059 TT): 7 May 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

RisksManagementAnalyst comments
GExecutive/board quality2King Slide’s board consists of 7 directors, including 4 independent directors. The total number of directors is lower than that of other listed companies in our coverage. King Slide held 6 board meetings in 2024; the actual attendee rate was 100%. Most of the board members are King Slide’s founder’s family members, which we believe presents downside risks to independent governance. However, the independent directors have diversified backgrounds with expertise in accounting and management, a positive for the board’s quality.
Capital management2King Slide declared a DPS of TWD32.2 in 2024, representing a payout ratio of 50%. The payout ratio was in line with the level of 46-53% during 2012-22. As a rail kit manufacturer, King Slide is set to deliver solid revenue growth and FCF over our forecast horizon amidst strong ASP increase in the AI server market.
Related party & transaction1The company did not report any related-party transactions in 2024. We see limited risks from related party transactions.
SProduct design & lifecycle management2King Slide applies life cycle thinking and the 3R principle (Reduce/Reuse/Recycle) across its product design to minimise environmental impact. Its green designs focus on controlling environmentally sensitive substances, using non toxic materials, and enabling easy assembly/disassembly to extend product lifespans. The company continues to advance its green product program. Based on 2024 shipments, carbon reductions amounted to 68,067 metric tons of CO2e versus 2023, underscoring progress in lowering the environmental footprint of its products.
SGHG emissions2King Slide is cutting greenhouse-gas emissions through targeted energy-efficient upgrades and process improvements. Across its Works and Technology sites, the company is replacing older motors and lighting with more efficient alternatives, introducing a formal GHG-reducing inventory, and refining equipment controls to eliminate unnecessary idling. These practical measures reduce electricity use, improve operational efficiency and lower the company’s carbon footprint in a cost-effective, scalable way.

Note: Management score represents a company’s ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 3 Feb 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

King Slide Works (2059 TT): 7 May 2026

Daiwa