PDF 原檔：3491昇達科(UMT)｜20260612｜GS_original.pdf
原始內容
UMT (3491.TWO): Sequential MoM growth ahead on rising LEO satellite business; Model transition a ff ects May revenues; Buy
UMT's monthly revenues were up 57% YoY, while down 15% MoM in May to NT$296m, or 21% below our previous estimates, which is mainly a ff ected by major customers' model transition. Looking ahead, we expect to see the sequential MoM improvement in Jun to Aug, supported by the new models ramp up and expansion of clients' constellation networking with improving launch e ffi ciency, leading 2Q26E/ 3Q26E revenues up 88%/ 115% YoY to NT$966m/ NT$1.0bn. We expect to see rising LEO satellite revenues contribution at 78%/ 89% in 2026/ 27E (vs. 59% in 2025). Maintain Buy.
UMT provides rectangular waveguides, which are conducting pipes with a rectangular cross-section used to guide the propagation of microwave or mmwave signals. Di ff erent shapes and combinations of waveguides can form various RF passive components, such as fi lter / diplexer, coupler, isolator, antenna, power ampli fi ers (PAs), etc. The company serves leading global LEO satellite operators, and its waveguides can be seen in LEO satellites / payloads (main), and gateways in ground stations.
Exhibit 1: We expect company's Jun revenues at 136% YoY/ 8% MoM to NT$320m UMT monthly/ quarterly revenues
| Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026E | Jul 2026E | Aug 2026E | Sep 2026E | 2Q26E | 3Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$m) | 349 | 296 | 320 | 337 | 360 | 345 | 966 | 1,042 |
| YoY | 84% | 57% | 136% | 166% | 117% | 81% | 88% | 115% |
| MoM/QoQ | 6% | -15% | 8% | 5% | 7% | -4% | -5% | 8% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 372 | 373 | ||||||
| Actual vs. GS | -6% | -21% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in company's May revenues and revise down 2026E earnings by 9% mainly on lower revenues to re fl ect the impact from model transition, while we remain positive on rising LEO satellite business on clients' satellite launches and the new models ramp up to drive speci fi cation upgrade and dollar content increase. We keep 2027/ 28E earnings largely unchanged.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Ting Song
+852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
Exhibit 2: Earnings revision
｜20260612｜GS_001.png)
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT$m | Old | New | Diff% | Old | New | Diff% | Old | New | Diff% |
| Revenues | 4,800 | 4,276 | -11% | 8,977 | 8,991 | 0% | 12,635 | 12,645 | 0% |
| GP | 3,059 | 2,706 | -12% | 6,076 | 6,060 | 0% | 8,751 | 8,732 | 0% |
| OP | 1,715 | 1,559 | -9% | 3,563 | 3,560 | 0% | 5,239 | 5,242 | 0% |
| Net income | 1,384 | 1,262 | -9% | 2,849 | 2,851 | 0% | 4,136 | 4,135 | 0% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 63.7% | 63.3% | 67.7% | 67.4% | 69.3% | 69.1% | |||
| OPM | 35.7% | 36.5% | 39.7% | 39.6% | 41.5% | 41.5% | |||
| NM | 28.8% | 29.5% | 31.7% | 31.7% | 32.7% | 32.7% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to derive our target price based on a discounted P/E, and based on 2029E (methodology unchanged). We continue to derive the target P/E multiple from the average PEG&M ratio of peers in the satellite supply chain, and we remove outliers (telecom operators who face competition from LEO satellite operators). Our target 2029E discounted P/E multiple is at 37.0x (unchanged) which is based on peers' avg. PEG&M, and UMT's 2029-30E avg. NI YoY and OPM. We apply the 37.0x multiple to 2029E EPS and discount it back to 2027E via a COE of 7.8% (no change). Our target price is at NT$2,513 (unchanged), implying 60x 2027E P/E, which is above the company's average +1 stv. P/E of 40x, re fl ecting our positive view on UMT's product mix upgrade toward LEO satellites. Maintain Buy.
| (NT$ mn) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milestones | Telecom components | Telecom components | Telecom components | LEO satellite launch accelerations | LEO satellite launch accelerations | LEO satellite launch accelerations | LEO satellite launch accelerations | LEO satellite users ramp up | LEO satellite users ramp up |
| Satellite revenues% | 15% | 15% | 43% | 59% | 78% | 89% | 92% | ||
| Revenue | 1,838 | 1,585 | 2,335 | 2,452 | 4,276 | 8,991 | 12,645 | 16,312 | 19,901 |
| YoY | 5% | -14% | 47% | 5% | 74% | 110% | 41% | 29% | 22% |
| Gross margin | 40.9% | 40.4% | 51.3% | 51.1% | 63.3% | 67.4% | 69.1% | 69.6% | 69.9% |
| Operating profit | 294 | 202 | 624 | 575 | 1,559 | 3,560 | 5,242 | 6,860 | 8,469 |
| YoY | 33% | -31% | 208% | -8% | 171% | 128% | 47% | 31% | 23% |
| Operating margin | 16% | 13% | 27% | 23% | 36% | 40% | 41% | 42% | 43% |
| Net profit | 271 | 200 | 547 | 518 | 1,262 | 2,851 | 4,135 | 5,411 | 6,669 |
| EPS (NT$, diluted) | 4.34 | 3.12 | 8.27 | 7.60 | 18.39 | 41.55 | 60.27 | 78.87 | 97.21 |
| YoY | 15% | -26% | 173% | -5% | 143% | 126% | 45% | 31% | 23% |
| TP implied P/E | 579 | 807 | 304 | 331 | 137 | 60 | 42 | 32 | 26 |
Exhibit 3: UMT discounted P/E
｜20260612｜GS_002.png)
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
Exhibit 4: UMT 12M forward P/E
｜20260612｜GS_003.png)
Source: Eikon Datastream
Price target risks and methodology - UMT
Valuation: We use a discounted P/E methodology and apply a 37.0x target P/E multiple to UMT's 2029E EPS, discounting it back to 2027E at a COE of 7.8% (beta 1.2x, risk-free rate 1.6% and market risk premium at 5.1%), which leads to our 12-month target price of NT$2,513. The target P/E is based on the average PEG&M ratio of peers in the satellite supply chain. We are Buy-rated on UMT.
Key Risks: Slower-than-expected LEO satellite deployment; Potential competition from new-entrant suppliers; LEO satellite operators manufacturing in-house components.
｜20260612｜GS_004.png)
| 3491.TWO | 12m Price Target: NT$2,513.00 | 12m Price Target: NT$2,513.00 | Price: NT$1,690.00 | Price: NT$1,690.00 | Upside: 48.7% | Upside: 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | Buy | GS Forecast | ||||
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |||
| Market c ap: NT$111.9bn / $ 3 . 5 bn | Market c ap: NT$111.9bn / $ 3 . 5 bn | Revenue (NT$ m n ) Ne w | 2 ,4 52 . 2 | 4, 276 .4 | 8 ,990.9 | 12 , 6 44.9 |
| E nterpr is e v a lu e: | E nterpr is e v a lu e: | Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 2,452.2 | 4,799.5 | 8,976.9 | 12,635.0 |
| NT$111. 3 bn / $ 3 . 5 bn | NT$111. 3 bn / $ 3 . 5 bn | EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 688.6 | 1,681.9 | 3,699.6 | 5,397.9 |
| 3m AD T V : NT$ 3 . 4 bn / $1 08 . 5m n | 3m AD T V : NT$ 3 . 4 bn / $1 08 . 5m n | E PS (NT$ ) Ne w | 7 . 6 0 | 18 .39 | 4 1 . 55 | 6 0. 27 |
| Ta iw an | Ta iw an | EPS (NT$) Old | 7.60 | 20.17 | 41.53 | 60.29 |
| G reater Chi na Te ch n ology 3 | G reater Chi na Te ch n ology 3 | P/E (X) | 54.5 | 91.9 | 40.7 | 28.0 |
| M &A R ank: | M &A R ank: | P/B (X) | 9.0 | 34.5 | 29.1 | 23.7 |
| L ea s e s i n cl . i n net d ebt & EV? : Y e s | L ea s e s i n cl . i n net d ebt & EV? : Y e s | Dividend yield (%) | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| CROCI (%) | 21.5 | 45.3 | 90.1 | 136.1 | ||
| 3 /26 | 6/26E | 9 /26E | 12/26E | |||
| EPS (NT$) | 3.69 | 3.79 | 4.88 | 6.03 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 12 Jun 2026 close.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-02）
回補驗證：僅涵蓋已被 lib 頁嵌入的圖片，非全量驗證。
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
3491昇達科(UMT)｜20260612｜GS_001.png |
70KB | 真資料圖 | 財測數字表格，標題NT$m，欄位2026E/2027E/2028E各含Old/New/Diff%，列項Revenues/GP/OP/Net income及Margins(GM/OPM/NM) |