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260701_1319_東陽_daiwa_Tong Yang

更新 2026-07-02

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PDF 原檔:260701_1319_東陽_daiwa_Tong Yang_original.pdf

原始內容

Taiwan

Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT)

Target price:

TWD81.00 (from TWD102.00)

Share price (30 Jun):

TWD77.40 | Up/downside: +4.7%

Downgrading: waiting for better order visibility

  • QTD unaudited pre-tax income came in below expectations
  • EPS likely to see downward revisions
  • Downgrading to Hold (3) from Outperform (2); new 12M TP of TWD81

What's new: Tong Yang released its unaudited profit data for May 2026 after market hours on 15 June 2026. We downgrade Tong Yang to Hold (3) from Outperform (2), as we believe weaker-than-expected earnings for 5M26 are partially factored into its share price, but we do not see any nearterm share price catalysts and see some pressure to cut its 2026 EPS due to the likely weaker-than-expected YTD revenue outlook. We suggest investors to revisit after better earnings visibility. Its dividend yield of 5.96.9% over 2026-28E, on Daiwa forecasts, should support its share price.

What's the impact: QTD unaudited operating profit below our and market estimates. Tong Yang posted operating profit of TWD273m (27.0% MoM; -0.5% YoY) for May 2026, with its QTD operating profit accounting for 64.1% and 60.8% of our previous and consensus 2Q26 operating profit forecasts, respectively. Its operating margin was 14.8% in May, down from 18.6% in April and 15.2% in May 2025. Its pre-tax profit was TWD289m (-18.2% MoM) in May, with QTD pre-tax profit accounting for 56.4% and 56.1% of our and consensus 2Q26 forecasts, respectively, with an FX loss of TWD27m. For 5M26, its aftermarket (AM) revenue was down 17.8% YoY and OEM revenue was down 14.2% YoY.

Rising AM penetration expected to continue in the long term despite a lack of share price catalysts and pressure on 2026E earnings in the near term. The US tariff has been lowered to 15% (from 27.5%) since 1 May 2026 (see news ), which we believe should be positive for its fundamentals. However, due to the off-season effect, we expect its revenue momentum to be subdued in the near term. We cut our 2026-27E EPS by 10-13%, mainly on our more conservative AM revenue and gross margin assumptions. We also introduce our 2028 forecasts.

What we recommend: We downgrade Tong Yang to Hold (3) from Outperform (2), due to the lack of near-term catalysts and the likely downward revisions to earnings. Our new 12-month TP of TWD81 (from TWD102), is based on a PER of 14x (from 15x) and applied to our 1-yearforward EPS. Its share price has corrected by 21.0% since February 2026, mainly due to ETF sell-offs, and we believe this also reflects the lacklustre near-term outlook. We suggest investors to revisit later once order visibility improves. Key upside/downside risks: stronger-/weaker-than-expected gross margin expansion and AM revenue.

How we differ: Our 2026-27E EPS are 10-15% below Bloomberg consensus, likely on our more conservative revenue estimates and lower operating leverage assumptions.

1 July 2026

Daiwa

5

3

Hold

Helen Chien

Helen Chien

(886) 2 8758 6254

helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Neil Teng (886) 2 8758 6256 neil.teng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change (7.5) (7.5) n.a.
Net profit change (9.8) (13.3) n.a.
Core EPS (FD) change (9.8) (13.3) n.a.

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

260701_1319_東陽_daiwa_Tong Yang_001
12-month range 73.60-115.00
Market cap (USDbn) 1.44
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 15.21
Shares outstanding (m) 591
Major shareholder Wu family (50.0%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 23,236 24,323 25,476
Operating profit (m) 3,905 4,351 4,806
Net profit (m) 3,618 3,808 4,195
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 6.116 6.438 7.092
EPS change (%) (4.9) 5.3 10.2
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (10.1) (14.7) n.a.
PER (x) 12.7 12.0 10.9
Dividend yield (%) 5.9 6.2 6.9
DPS 4.6 4.8 5.3
PBR (x) 1.6 1.5 1.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.3 6.2 5.0
ROE (%) 12.7 12.9 13.7

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Tong Yang: Daiwa revenue and earnings forecast revisions

(TWDm) 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
New Previous Change New Previous Change New Previous Change
Sales 23,236 25,111 -7.5% 24,323 26,286 -7.5% 25,476 n.a. n.a.
Gross profit 7,669 8,447 -9.2% 8,194 9,018 -9.1% 8,754 n.a. n.a.
Gross profit margin 33.0% 33.6% -0.6pp 33.7% 34.3% -0.6pp 34.4% n.a. n.a.
Operating profit 3,905 4,529 -13.8% 4,351 5,023 -13.4% 4,806 n.a. n.a.
Operating profit margin 16.8% 18.0% -1.2pp 17.9% 19.1% -1.2pp 18.9% n.a. n.a.
Net profit 3,618 4,009 -9.8% 3,808 4,391 -13.3% 4,195 n.a. n.a.
Net profit margin 15.6% 16.0% -0.4pp 15.7% 16.7% -1pp 16.5% n.a. n.a.
Diluted EPS (TWD) 6.12 6.78 -9.8% 6.44 7.42 -13.3% 7.09 n.a. n.a.

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Tong Yang: quarterly P&L

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E
Revenue 5,631 5,627 5,625 6,353 5,850 5,900 5,700 6,873 23,236 24,323 25,476
Gross profit 1,830 1,868 1,856 2,115 1,931 1,947 1,853 2,464 7,669 8,194 8,754
Operating profit 887 968 936 1,113 951 1,007 923 1,471 3,905 4,351 4,806
Pre-tax profit 1,188 1,053 1,021 1,199 1,044 1,100 1,016 1,564 4,461 4,725 5,199
Net profit 956 825 828 1,010 840 886 817 1,264 3,618 3,808 4,195
Basic EPS (TWD) 1.62 1.39 1.40 1.71 1.42 1.50 1.38 2.14 6.12 6.44 7.09
Margin
Gross margin 32.5% 33.2% 33.0% 33.3% 33.0% 33.0% 32.5% 35.8% 33.0% 33.7% 34.4%
Operating margin 15.8% 17.2% 16.6% 17.5% 16.2% 17.1% 16.2% 21.4% 16.8% 17.9% 18.9%
Pre-tax margin 21.1% 18.7% 18.2% 18.9% 17.8% 18.7% 17.8% 22.8% 19.2% 19.4% 20.4%
Net margin 17.0% 14.7% 14.7% 15.9% 14.4% 15.0% 14.3% 18.4% 15.6% 15.7% 16.5%
YoY
Revenue -22.8% -4.5% 4.1% -2.4% 3.9% 4.9% 1.3% 8.2% -7.4% 4.7% 4.7%
Gross profit -34.1% -4.0% 22.7% -3.5% 5.5% 4.2% -0.2% 16.5% -9.0% 6.8% 6.8%
Operating profit -50.0% -6.4% 51.4% -5.3% 7.1% 4.0% -1.5% 32.1% -15.1% 11.4% 10.4%
Pre-tax profit -36.7% 90.9% 22.7% -21.6% -12.2% 4.5% -0.5% 30.5% -6.9% 5.9% 10.0%
Net profit -34.8% 80.6% 25.9% -17.5% -12.1% 7.5% -1.2% 25.2% -4.9% 5.3% 10.2%
QoQ
Revenue -13.5% -0.1% 0.0% 12.9% -7.9% 0.9% -3.4% 20.6%
Gross profit -16.5% 2.1% -0.6% 13.9% -8.7% 0.9% -4.9% 33.0%
Operating profit -24.5% 9.1% -3.3% 18.9% -14.6% 5.9% -8.4% 59.5%
Pre-tax profit -22.3% -11.4% -3.0% 17.3% -12.9% 5.4% -7.7% 54.0%
Net profit -21.9% -13.7% 0.3% 22.0% -16.8% 5.5% -7.8% 54.6%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Tong Yang: pre-tax margin and operating margin

260701_1319_東陽_daiwa_Tong Yang_002

Source: Company

Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT): 1 July 2026

Tong Yang: 1-year forward PER

260701_1319_東陽_daiwa_Tong Yang_003

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales growth of OEM business (%) 12 12.8 3.9 0.9 (6.4) (6.8) 1.7 1.8
Sales growth of AM business (%) 3.7 17.1 15.6 9.8 (0.4) (7.6) 5.7 5.7
Consolidated gross margin (%) 19 23.6 29.9 33.3 33.6 33.0 33.7 34.4

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
AM 12,716 14,891 17,216 18,895 18,818 17,387 18,375 19,421
OEM-China 3,658 4,408 4,639 4,602 4,264 3,838 3,838 3,838
Other Revenue 2,007 1,983 2,004 2,099 2,012 2,011 2,111 2,217
Total Revenue 18,380 21,283 23,859 25,596 25,094 23,236 24,323 25,476
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (14,893) (16,255) (16,725) (17,065) (16,667) (15,566) (16,129) (16,721)
SG&A (2,434) (2,591) (2,823) (3,025) (2,950) (2,951) (3,016) (3,083)
Other op.expenses (510) (503) (567) (692) (875) (813) (827) (866)
Operating profit 543 1,935 3,744 4,813 4,602 3,905 4,351 4,806
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (110) (72) 29 97 78 42 49 49
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 334 738 39 619 111 514 324 344
Pre-tax profit 767 2,600 3,812 5,530 4,791 4,461 4,725 5,199
Tax (130) (564) (765) (1,074) (889) (828) (876) (964)
Min. int./pref. div./others 50 115 (28) (78) (99) (16) (40) (40)
Net profit (reported) 688 2,151 3,019 4,377 3,804 3,618 3,808 4,195
Net profit (adjusted) 688 2,151 3,019 4,377 3,804 3,618 3,808 4,195
EPS (reported)(TWD) 1.162 3.637 5.105 7.400 6.431 6.117 6.439 7.092
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 1.162 3.637 5.105 7.400 6.431 6.117 6.439 7.092
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 1.160 3.636 5.104 7.399 6.430 6.116 6.438 7.092
DPS (TWD) 0.850 2.500 4.000 5.300 5.000 4.588 4.829 5.319
EBIT 543 1,935 3,744 4,813 4,602 3,905 4,351 4,806
EBITDA 3,511 4,794 6,507 7,436 7,186 6,547 7,235 7,921

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 767 2,600 3,812 5,530 4,791 4,461 4,725 5,199
Depreciation and amortisation 2,967 2,859 2,762 2,623 2,583 2,642 2,884 3,115
Tax paid (130) (564) (765) (1,074) (889) (828) (876) (964)
Change in working capital (537) (438) 125 (778) (2,084) 3,903 (4,822) 4,760
Other operational CF items 819 1,134 1,152 885 15 55 35 15
Cash flow from operations 3,886 5,592 7,087 7,186 4,417 10,234 1,946 12,125
Capex (2,373) (2,216) (2,824) (3,479) (2,949) (3,300) (3,000) (3,000)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 451 1,522 187 70 114 0 0 0
Other investing CF items (349) (100) (337) 37 (329) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (2,271) (793) (2,974) (3,372) (3,163) (3,300) (3,000) (3,000)
Change in debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (473) (503) (1,479) (2,366) (3,135) (2,713) (2,856) (3,146)
Other financing CF items (1,209) (3,449) (1,177) (578) (207) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing (1,682) (3,952) (2,655) (2,943) (3,342) (2,713) (2,856) (3,146)
Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in cash (67) 847 1,458 870 (2,088) 4,220 (3,911) 5,979
Free cash flow 1,513 3,376 4,263 3,706 1,468 6,934 (1,054) 9,125

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT): 1 July 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 1,454 2,344 3,817 4,737 2,662 6,886 2,989 8,982
Inventory 3,047 3,057 2,687 3,089 3,179 2,382 3,532 2,521
Accounts receivable 3,769 4,159 5,030 5,099 7,060 3,167 8,078 3,417
Other current assets 374 426 572 332 292 292 292 292
Total current assets 8,643 9,987 12,106 13,257 13,192 12,727 14,891 15,211
Fixed assets 18,884 18,192 17,605 17,346 18,228 18,887 19,003 18,887
Goodwill & intangibles 1,261 874 590 424 598 598 598 598
Other non-current assets 5,666 4,487 4,745 7,264 6,574 6,574 6,574 6,574
Total assets 34,453 33,540 35,046 38,292 38,592 38,786 41,066 41,271
Short-term debt 2,202 1,620 916 736 939 939 939 939
Accounts payable 4,411 4,269 5,152 5,417 5,307 4,521 5,760 4,848
Other current liabilities 295 1,000 984 883 711 711 711 711
Total current liabilities 6,908 6,890 7,052 7,036 6,958 6,171 7,410 6,498
Long-term debt 4,568 1,839 1,452 1,143 801 801 801 801
Other non-current liabilities 710 545 630 1,957 2,149 2,149 2,149 2,149
Total liabilities 12,186 9,275 9,134 10,136 9,907 9,121 10,360 9,448
Share capital 5,915 5,915 5,915 5,915 5,915 5,915 5,915 5,915
Reserves/R.E./others 15,723 17,834 19,537 21,696 22,151 23,115 24,116 25,193
Shareholders' equity 21,637 23,749 25,451 27,610 28,066 29,030 30,030 31,108
Minority interests 630 517 461 546 619 635 675 715
Total equity & liabilities 34,453 33,540 35,046 38,292 38,592 38,786 41,066 41,271
EV 51,727 47,413 44,792 43,468 45,478 41,270 45,207 39,254
Net debt/(cash) 5,316 1,115 (1,449) (2,858) (921) (5,146) (1,249) (7,242)
BVPS (TWD) 36.582 40.151 43.030 46.681 47.450 49.080 50.772 52.593

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 6.1 15.8 12.1 7.3 (2.0) (7.4) 4.7 4.7
EBITDA (YoY) (8.4) 36.6 35.7 14.3 (3.4) (8.9) 10.5 9.5
Operating profit (YoY) 0.6 256.2 93.6 28.6 (4.4) (15.1) 11.4 10.4
Net profit (YoY) (16.1) 212.9 40.4 45.0 (13.1) (4.9) 5.3 10.2
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) (16.3) 213.4 40.4 45.0 (13.1) (4.9) 5.3 10.2
Gross-profit margin 19.0 23.6 29.9 33.3 33.6 33.0 33.7 34.4
EBITDA margin 19.1 22.5 27.3 29.1 28.6 28.2 29.7 31.1
Operating-profit margin 3.0 9.1 15.7 18.8 18.3 16.8 17.9 18.9
Net profit margin 3.7 10.1 12.7 17.1 15.2 15.6 15.7 16.5
ROAE 3.2 9.5 12.3 16.5 13.7 12.7 12.9 13.7
ROAA 2.0 6.3 8.8 11.9 9.9 9.4 9.5 10.2
ROCE 1.8 6.8 13.4 16.5 15.2 12.6 13.6 14.6
ROIC 1.6 5.7 12.0 15.6 14.1 12.2 13.1 14.5
Net debt to equity 24.6 4.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 16.9 21.7 20.1 19.4 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5
Accounts receivable (days) 72.9 68 70.3 72.2 88.4 80.3 84.4 82.3
Current ratio (x) 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.3
Net interest cover (x) 5.0 26.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 73.1 68.7 78.4 71.6 77.7 75.0 75.0 75.0
Free cash flow yield 3.3 7.4 9.3 8.1 3.2 15.1 n.a. 19.9

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1967, Tong Yang Industry is the world's leading after-market (AM) collision-parts manufacturer, with 2025 global revenue market shares of 70% for plastic parts and 38% for sheet-metal parts. The company is also a major OEM auto parts supplier to China and international automakers.

Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT): 1 July 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 2 The CEO and Chairperson of Tong Yang are not the same individual. Tong Yang's board has 7 directors, including 3 independent directors. The board is led by the Wu family (three brothers: Chairman, Vice Chairman, and CEO), which we view as a sign of a stable board as the directors have worked together since the company was established.
Capital management 2 Tong Yang maintained its dividend payout ratio between 58-78% between 2020-25, which is relatively lower than that of its peers; the company is considered to be a mature player with a limited capacity expansion plan.
Related party & transaction 2 Revenue generated from related-party transactions is currently between 1-2%, and the transaction conditions are no different than those of normal transactions. Thus, we see limited risk.
S Product quality & safety 1 Through advanced product and quality planning (APQP), Tong Yang can better manage the product development process, which allows it to fulfil clients' needs in a timely manner. Tong Yang is focused on developing high-quality, eco-friendly, lightweight, and automated products. This is reflected in its 2022 CSR report and we believe that Tong Yang is putting in considerable effort into this area.
S Materials sourcing & efficiency 2 Tong Yang has set up an online supply chain management (SCM) platform to communicate effectively with its suppliers. This allows it to conduct evaluations and provide feedback to its suppliers to improve efficiency. Moreover, we see an increasing usage of renewable materials in its Aftermarket division, indicating its continuous efforts in boosting efficiency along its production line.
E Product design & lifecycle management 2 We note Tong Yang's product design and lifecycle management follows four focal points: high- quality, eco-friendly, lightweight, and automated products. This allows the company to effectively engage in the ESG trend, in our view. As shown in its 2022 CSR report, it also focuses on waste reduction and water management in order to create a more eco-friendly production lifecycle.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 1 Jul 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company

Tong Yang Industry (1319 TT): 1 July 2026

Daiwa