260630_2454_聯發科_廣發

PDF 原檔：260630_2454_聯發科_廣發_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-01）

兩張皆為估值/股價走勢圖，lib 不嵌（公司頁已具內容）。報告核心資料為文字表格（Google TPU Roadmap、Meta ASIC Roadmap、TPU 獲利假設）。 <40KB 未列者預設 logo/裝飾。

原始內容

MediaTek (2454 TT)

Triggerfish Implications & Contribution to be Significant

C Progress Intact, with >$170 Annualized EPS Potential

Raise TP to NT$6,420: Despite sell-side's raise for MTK's TP, the share price pulled back by 17% in the past one week due to broad market weakness, Qualcomm's entry into datacenter ASIC and speculated 2nm/Bladerunner project from Broadcom. In our view, Qualcomm's AI250 has little overlap with MTK, due to significant differences in client base and performance. Additionally, we believe the rumored Bladerunner hasn't been started as a project and still expect Broadcom to have only one new TPU SKU, Whalefish (or Sunfish x2), in 2028, suggesting a positioning disadvantage, vs. MTK's. On the other hand, we believe the Street underestimated MTK's Triggerfish's potential on much higher ASP/content and the large SRAM design, extending MTK's positioning from training (v8t) to inferencing which is Broadcom's market. Moreover, we reiterate our earlier report of Likely SpaceX's Win on May 27 of MTK's 2 nd datacenter ASIC in late-2028, adding momentum on top of TPU's Icefish at the same timeframe. As such, we raise the ASIC revenue to $2.5bn/$18bn/$73bn in 2026/27/28; accordingly revise our EPS estimates +0%/+3% in 2026E/2027E and lift TP from NT$5,520 to NT$6,420, now based on a 45x 2027E EPS or 19x 2028E EPS.

Triggerfish to boost ASPs and positioning in TPU: Despite the MTK Triggerfish's news come-out a week ago, the share price didn't react, yet, we expect upside to Triggerfish in: 1) ASPs of $18k , vs. Humufish's $13k or Zebrafish's $5.5k; 2) Triggerfish's mix of v9 (incl. Humufish and Triggerfish) to ~50%; 3) MTK's content of 4x companion compute core embedded large SRAM (~250MB x 4), one simulator based on 5nm, 4x I/O cores and backend; 4) MTK's positioning in TPU , as the large SRAM and the simulator CPU, which manages workload between large-SRAM cores and performance cores, will help MTK extend from training (v8t) to inferencing.

Accelerated share gains in TPU: For v8, we expect MTK's v8t to be in mass volume at earlier timeframe, vs. v8i which could be in late-2026. For v9, we still believe MTK's Humufish is the only SKU in 2nm; that said, we see little chance for its competitor to come out 2nm at that time and believe the speculated Bladerunner (i.e., 2nm) hasn't been progressed as a project. Having said that, its competitor's new SKU, Whalefish (Sunfish x2), in 2028 could be a small volume SKU due to disadvantages in process node and HBM. Looking ahead, we believe MTK's Icefish for v10 is solid, while other projects of v10 aren't clear by now.

Risks: 1) AI demand slowdown; 2) consumer demand; 3) peer competition.

Profit forecast

Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.

Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.

数据来源：公司

财务报

表，广

发证

券

发

展研究中心

Maintained Target price

Buy NT$ 6,420

Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk

Henry Huang SFC CE No. BYA749 henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk

Earnings Forecast

Figure 1: MTK share price (NT$), vs. revenue YoY (%), OP YoY (%)

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 2: Google TPU Roadmap

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.

Figure 3: Meta's ASIC Roadmap

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 4: MTK's TPU earnings assumptions

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Earnings revision

We estimate the ASIC revenue to be $2.5bn/$18bn/$73bn in 2026/27/28, from earlier $2.2bn/18bn/$48bn, to factor in Triggerfish's mix and higher ASPs. Hence, we revise our EPS estimates +0%/+3% in 2026E/2027E and expect a strong earnings growth in 2028E.

Figure 5: Earnings revision

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 6: MTK's P&L forecast

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Valuation and Recommendation

Maintain Buy with TP of $6,420

We rate MTK (2454 TT) Buy and set our TP at NT$6,420 which is based on 45x our 2027E EPS estimate or 19x 2028E EPS. We raise our 2027 multiple to reflect higher earnings growth in 2027/2028, but it suggests an undemanding valuation for 2028. MTK's P/E traded at an average of 18x since 2021 but was up to an average of 22x since 1Q24 when the company starts to see the AI opportunity. Our target multiple for 2027 is much higher than the mid-cycle level given Google TPU momentum and our bullish estimate of its 2027E/2028E earnings growth.

We adopt 2027 and/or 2028 as valuation basis to capture its datacenter ASIC potential which is the key market focus and expect the business to take off starting 2027. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market now mainly focuses on the company's earnings outlook, and we usually apply P/E method to downstream firms.

Fundamentally, we are positive on MTK, as it is well-positioned to expand its value position in smartphone SoCs amid the edge-AI trend, as well as the expansion into datacenter/enterprise ASICs and smart automotive solutions. The datacenter ASIC business is the key for upside, in our view, and we expect TPU to provide a volume boost for MTK, while the market will continue to monitor for its execution.

Figure 7: MTK's 12-month forward P/E

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Risks

1) AI demand slowdown; 2) consumer demand; 3) peer competition.

Rating definitions

Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)

Company ratings Buy

Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %

Hold

Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10 % and 10 %

Underperform

Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10 %

Sector ratings Positive

Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%

Neutral

Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Cautious

Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Hong Kong Company

GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited

Address

27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong

Telephone

(852) 37191111

Email

evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk

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