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93KB | 真資料圖 | 貿聯股價（黑線）vs UBS 目標價（藍階梯線）沿革圖，2023/04–2026/06；下方 Buy／No Rating 評等區間色塊 |
原始內容
First Read
BizLink Holding
June sales rose, Credo NDR positive outlook
Maintain Buy: positive read-through from Credo; sales accelerating
We attended Credo's NDR meeting in Taiwan, hosted by UBS, on July 7. Credo is bullish on the continued growth of AEC TAM and plans to demonstrate ALC at the next OCP event (August/October 2026). Bizlink remains Credo's major supplier for AEC and ALC products. Meanwhile, Bizlink's sales rose strongly MoM in June, implying a return to normalized production levels and growing contribution from optical fiber assembly through XFS. We estimate Bizlink's proposed GDR and ECB imply limited EPS dilution of 6-7%. Besides data cables, we estimate a gradual margin recovery and higher contribution from power cables to serve as major earnings growth drivers in H226.
Credo remains bullish on AEC TAM growth; more companies entering ALC
On the divergence between Credo and Bizlink's latest quarterly results, Credo reiterated that neither company should be viewed as a reliable proxy for the other as product mix and customer mix are different. On AEC, Credo expects TAM to continue to expand, supported by growth in AI-related capex, increasing pluggables adoption, and copper replacing optical cables as network densities increase. On product transitions, though Rubin has a design of up to 1.6T transmission, Credo sees some hyperscalers sticking to 800G. Credo indicates 100gig/lane remain as the major shipment while expect a cross over of more 200gig/lane solutions around 2028-29. For 1.6T data transmission design, one could utilize either eight 200gig lanes or two ports consisting of eight 100gig lanes each. The rack-rack distance is mostly c.5 meters. Credo's AEC support distances of 1-7 meters while its ALC support 30-50 meters. Credo is bullish about scale up and scale out opportunities. Bizlink remains Credo's primary AEC supplier. Credo highlighted examples of Bizlink helping Credo to win orders through new specification development and competitive pricing. On ALC, more companies such as MediaTek and AUO are starting to explore this data interconnect solution. Credo is confident in its product roadmap and expects to demonstrate its ALC solution at upcoming OCP events, with customer sample qualification targeted for late FY27 to H1 FY28.
BizLink's GDR and ECB issuance imply 6-7% EPS dilution
On July 3, BizLink announced plans to issue 4.5-6.0mn GDR shares and ECB of up to US $500m to fund the overseas procurement needs. We estimate the two transactions to raise total capital of c.US$775-870m and Bizlink's net gearing ratio to become 28-35% post the issuance and the Interplex acquisition. The GDR issuance would result in 2.3%3.1% EPS dilution and full dilution from the ECB conversion would be 4.1%, assuming $500m proceeds, a conversion price at previous close, and USD/TWD of 32.
Valuation: maintain Buy on BizLink with PT of NT$3,430 (30x 2027E PE)
BizLink's June sales grew a robust 16% MoM, driving Q226 sales 3-4% ahead of UBS/ consensus. Maintain Buy and PT NT$3,430 (30x 2027E PE).
| Highlights (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 51,052 | 54,080 | 71,247 | 92,443 | 122,167 | 141,255 | 152,195 | 165,142 |
| EBIT (UBS) | 4,237 | 6,566 | 12,458 | 16,343 | 30,044 | 35,502 | 38,224 | 41,458 |
| Net earnings (UBS) | 2,317 | 4,396 | 9,005 | 12,120 | 22,547 | 26,868 | 29,130 | 31,824 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | 13.78 | 23.59 | 46.33 | 62.06 | 114.94 | 136.85 | 148.32 | 161.98 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 10.10 | 8.83 | 10.51 | 15.00 | 37.30 | 69.39 | 82.69 | 89.65 |
| Net (debt) / cash | 832 | 690 | 5,601 | 8,826 | 16,524 | 24,516 | 34,252 | 44,750 |
| Profitability/valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EBIT (UBS) margin% | 8.3 | 12.1 | 17.5 | 17.7 | 24.6 | 25.1 | 25.1 | 25.1 |
| ROIC (EBIT)% | 13.3 | 19.1 | 29.1 | 31.3 | 50.9 | 54.2 | 54.7 | 56.5 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x | 8.7 | 7.1 | 11.8 | 19.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 7.8 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) x | 19.7 | 16.0 | 19.8 | 31.9 | 17.2 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 12.2 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield% | 10.3 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 7.2 |
| Dividend yield (net)% | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.5 |
Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 1,980.00 on 07-Jul-2026
| Equities | Equities |
|---|---|
| Taiwan | Taiwan |
| Industrial, Diversified | Industrial, Diversified |
| 12-month rating | Buy |
| 12m price target | NT$3,430.00 |
| Price (07 Jul 2026) | NT$1,980 |
| RIC: 3665.TW BBG: 3665 TT | RIC: 3665.TW BBG: 3665 TT |
| Trading data and key metrics | Trading data and key metrics |
| 52-wk range | NT$2,940.00-818.00 |
| Market cap. | NT$386b/US$12.0b |
| Shares o/s | 195m (ORD) |
| Free float | 88% |
| Avg. daily volume ('000) | 3,144 |
| Avg. daily value (m) | NT$7,195.7 |
| Common s/h equity (12/26E) | NT$55.8b |
| P/BV (12/26E) | 6.9x |
| Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | NM |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) |
| UBS | Cons. |
| 12/26E 62.06 | 67.27 |
| 12/27E 114.94 | 109.42 |
| 12/28E 136.85 | 144.28 |
Ally Chen
Analyst ally.chen@ubs.com
+886-2-8722 7347
Megan Li Analyst megan.li@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7393
Forecast returns
| Forecast price appreciation | 73.2% |
|---|---|
| Forecast dividend yield | 0.8% |
| Forecast stock return | 74.0% |
| Market return assumption | 6.3% |
| Forecast excess return | 67.7% |
Company Description
Founded in 1996, BizLink is headquartered in Fremont, California. BizLink provides interconnect solutions, including connectors, harnesses and cables for a wide range of industries, such as industrials, automotive, IT & data communications, and electrical appliances. BizLink has 34 production facilities located in Asia, America and Europe.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
Our price target is based on a PE multiple.
The key company-specific risks are: 1) a global economic slowdown impacting end-demand; 2) a slower-than-expected change in the product mix leading to slower-than-expected grossmargin expansion; and 3) a rise in raw material prices.
The key industry-specific risks are: unexpected changes in the underlying global macro environment, currency and interest rate movement and commodity price inflation.
Quantitative Research Review
UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.
BizLink Holding
| Question | Response |
|---|---|
| 1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 5. What's driving the difference? | |
| 6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 7. What's driving the difference? | |
| 8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the next three months? | |
| 9. Is there an actual or approximate date for the catalyst? | |
| 10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approximate date? | |
| 11. What is the catalyst? |
Required Disclosures
This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".
For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 08 July 2026 03:32 AM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts coauthor research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses, please see the Quantitative Research Review Addendum at the back of this report, where applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/ quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quantanswers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.