PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_聯發科2454_20260923_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-09-24）
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51.0KB | 真資料圖 | MediaTek's forward P/E 折線圖，Jan-10 至 Sep-26，附 +1std=24x（黃線）／Average=18x（紅線）／-1std=12x（黃線）三條水平帶；2026 中後段股價本益比急升穿越 +1std 至約 55x |
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54.3KB | 真資料圖 | 股價（黑線）vs 目標價（藍線）走勢圖（2023/06-2026/09），下方 Buy／Neutral 評等區間色塊，目標價階梯自約 NT$1,400 一路上修至最新約 NT$6,800（本圖顯示至上次上修，正文最新已至 NT$7,300） |
原始內容
Key Call: MediaTek Inc.
Multiple catalysts ahead on TPU; quantifying upside in new A IC projects
Stronger TPU upside in 2028-29
We believe the market has not fully priced in MediaTek's strategic value and opportunity in Google TPU, and view several catalysts ahead. We keep TPU sales at U $18bn in 2027E, but raise 2028/29E to U $43.5bn/52.5bn from 35.0/40.0bn previously, as we factor in longer product cycle of v8t in 2028E and stronger growth of v9 in 2029E. ee our TPU financial analysis in Figure 1UB fo recas tM d iTk'Pb u n. Catalysts in next 6-9 months include 1) v9 tape out delivery by Nov 2026E, 2) improving visibility and execution of Intel EMIB-T, 3) Google further raising v9 volume forecast in H127 assuming constructive feedback from v9 system verification, 4) MediaTek upgrading TPU guidance during their earnings conference in Oct, Jan/Feb.
MediaTek potentially adding CoWoS on top of MIB-T to ramp more v9 in 202829
We are increasingly more optimistic about MediaTek's TPU v9 volume potential in 202829. Overall execution of Google and MediaTek appears smoother for v9 compared with v8t, and the tape out is so far on track for delivery by Nov 2026. On EMIB-T, our deep dive suggests better than feared execution for substrate manufacturing at Ibiden, with increasing support from Unimicron, hinko, and more suppliers. EMIB-T supply should be sufficient to drive >2m v9 volume in 2028. However, EMIB-T substrate could be tight if v9 volume grows to 4m or more in 2029. We believe that, likely due to supply consideration, MediaTek could be engaging with T MC to add a CoWo solution for v9. It's still early stage, but could reflect the meaningful upside potential for v9 into 2029.
Upside risk from new ASIC projects
MediaTek has been proactively exploring new projects to further scale A ICs sales. There are two projects with higher possibility, although not yet finalized. 1) paceX's Dojo 3 based on T MC N2 and oW ( ystem on Wafer) packaging. MediaTek could be collaborating with Nvidia to offer NVLink Fusion to secure this project. 2) Tesla's AI6 for ADA and robotics, which could be first produced at Intel fab, followed by Terafab. Tesla is already deploying AI6 at T MC and amsung Foundry, but the goal could be to move more volume to Terafab if the ramp is successful. Our initial view is both projects combined could drive up to U $10-15bn A IC revenue opportunity for MediaTek. We expect both projects to be finalized soon in coming months given the goal to enter mass production by 2029.
Valuation: reiterate Key Call Buy; raising price target to NT$7,300
We fine tune 2027E EP on softer smartphone outlook but raise 2028/29E EP by 21/28%. Our 2028 EP estimate is 44% above consensus. Raise price target to NT $7,300 from NT$6,500 based on unchanged 27x 2027-28E PE. Reiterate Key Call Buy.
| Highlights (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | 12/27 | 12/28 | 12/29 | 12/30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 433,446 | 530,586 | 595,966 | 673,973 | 1,248,996 | 2,139,567 | 2,484,450 | 2,791,050 |
| BIT (UBS) | 71,800 | 102,412 | 103,470 | 107,089 | 316,482 | 661,915 | 788,602 | 884,355 |
| Net earnings (UBS) | 76,979 | 106,387 | 105,319 | 107,707 | 282,719 | 578,726 | 690,737 | 777,310 |
| PS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | 48.34 | 66.81 | 66.07 | 67.49 | 177.15 | 362.63 | 432.81 | 487.06 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 79.48 | 82.90 | 53.50 | 54.10 | 142.01 | 290.69 | 346.95 | 390.44 |
| Net (debt) / cash | 163,196 | 202,756 | 234,290 | 168,863 | 214,787 | 184,681 | 420,108 | 573,404 |
| Profitability/valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | 12/27 | 12/28 | 12/29 | 12/30 |
| BIT (UBS) margin % | 16.6 | 19.3 | 17.4 | 15.9 | 25.3 | 30.9 | 31.7 | 31.7 |
| ROIC ( BIT) % | 61.8 | 231.3 | >500 | 198.9 | 210.4 | 192.6 | 172.8 | 199.3 |
| V/ BITDA (UBS core) x | 10.2 | 12.7 | 14.6 | 59.6 | 23.2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 8.4 |
| P/ (UBS, diluted) x | 15.8 | 17.9 | 20.8 | 76.8 | 29.3 | 14.3 | 12.0 | 10.6 |
| quity FCF (UBS) yield % | 13.1 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 8.4 | 9.0 |
| Dividend yield (net) % | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 7.5 |
ource: Company accounts, L EG Eikon, UB estimates. Metrics marked as (UB ) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 5,185.00 on 23- ep-2026 15:27:50 C T
quities
Taiwan
emiconductors
12-month rating
12m price target Buy NT$7,300.00
Prior : NT$6,500
Price (23 Sep 2026)
NT$5,185
RIC: 2454.TWBBG: 2454 TT
Trading data and key metrics
| 52-wk range | NT$5,185.00-1,145.00 |
|---|---|
| Market cap. | NT$8,316b/U $262b |
| Shares o/s | 1,604m (ORD) |
| Free float | 88% |
| Avg. daily volume ('000) | 9,668 |
| Avg. daily value (m) | NT$39,389.5 |
| Common s/h equity (12/26 ) | NT$445b |
| P/BV (12/26 ) | 18.6x |
| Net debt to BITDA (12/26 ) | NM |
| From | To | % ch | Cons. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PS (UBS, 12/26 | diluted) 67.48 | (TWD) 67.49 | 0 | 68.47 |
| 12/27 | 181.09 | 177.15 | -2 | 145.76 |
| 12/28 | 300.76 | 362.63 | 21 | 265.33 |
Sunny Lin
Analyst sunny.lin@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7346
Ryan Sun Analyst ryan-za.sun@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7267
Christine Chen, CFA
Associate Analyst christine.chen@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7352
Figure 1: UBS forecasts for MediaTek's TPU business
| 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google's TPU sales (US$mn) | 2,113 | 18,000 | 43,500 | 52,500 | 60,000 |
| Google's TPU sales (NT$mn) | 67,200 | 576,000 | 1,392,0001,680,0001,920,000 | ||
| % of total sales | 10% | 46% | 65% | 68% | 69% |
| Gross profits (NT$mn) | 28,224 | 241,920 | 584,640 | 705,600 | 806,400 |
| Gross margin | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| OPEX (NT$mn) | 13,440 | 28,800 | 41,760 | 50,400 | 57,600 |
| OPEX ratio | 20.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Operating profits (NT$mn) | 14,784 | 213,120 | 542,880 | 655,200 | 748,800 |
| Operating margin | 22% | 37% | 39% | 39% | 39% |
| Tax rate | 12.9% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| Net profits (NT$mn) | 12,875 | 182,218 | 464,162 | 560,196 | 640,224 |
| EPS contribution (NT$) | 8.1 | 114.4 | 291.4 | 351.7 | 402.0 |
| Consolidated EPS (NT$) | 67.6 | 177.5 | 363.4 | 433.7 | 488.0 |
ource: UB estimates
Figure 2: MediaTek's key growth drivers
| Base case (NT$m) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5G flagship | 110,921 | 107,181 | 159,929 | 174,779 |
| % of sales | 19% | 16% | 13% | 8% |
| Units (m) | 21.5 | 19.0 | 26.5 | 28.0 |
| ASP (US$) | 165.3 | 177.4 | 188.6 | 195.1 |
| 5G non-flagship | 166,745 | 124,168 | 117,948 | 135,831 |
| % of sales | 28% | 18% | 9% | 6% |
| Units (m) | 189.0 | 145.0 | 140.0 | 160.0 |
| ASP (US$) | 28.3 | 26.9 | 26.3 | 26.5 |
| PC CPUs | 4,744 | 9,217 | 15,190 | |
| % of sales | 1% | 1% | 1% | |
| Units (m) | 3.7 | 7.2 | 11.9 | |
| - Total NB units (m) | 181 | 186 | 192 | 198 |
| - WOA penetration in PC market | 10% | 15% | 20% | |
| - NVIDIA/MediaTek's share | 20% | 25% | 30% | |
| Royalty fee (US$ per chip) | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | |
| Cloud ASICs | 67,200 | 576,000 | 1,392,000 | |
| % of sales | 10% | 46% | 65% | |
| Edge AI ASICs | 16,000 | 32,000 | ||
| % of sales | 1% | 1% | ||
| Automotive | 11,233 | 15,139 | 20,480 | 56,000 |
| % of sales | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| TAM for cockpit, connectivity (US$bn) | 24 | 28 | 32 | 35 |
| MediaTek's share | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
| Wi-Fi 7 | 4,487 | 7,735 | 12,096 | 16,769 |
| % of sales | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Units (m) | 17.8 | 33.4 | 54.6 | 79.6 |
| ASP (US$) | 8.1 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.6 |
| Revenue from new growth drivers (NT$m) | 293,386 | 326,167 | 911,670 | 1,822,569 |
| % of sales | 49% | 48% | 73% | 85% |
| Total MediaTek sales (NT$m) | 595,966 | 673,973 | 1,248,996 | 2,139,567 |
| YoY growth | 12% | 13% | 85% | 71% |
ource: Company data, UB estimates
Figure 3: MediaTek's operating metrics
| Mobile Metrics | Q126 | Q226 | Q326E | Q426E | Q127E | Q227E | Q327E | Q427E | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4G Units (m) | 40.0 | 37.0 | 33.0 | 40.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 370.0 | 228.0 | 251.0 | 207.0 | 150.0 | 140.0 |
| 4G ASPs (US$) | 7.38 | 7.36 | 7.43 | 7.43 | 7.58 | 7.58 | 7.58 | 7.58 | 10.38 | 8.31 | 8.49 | 7.79 | 7.40 | 7.58 |
| 4G Sales (NT$m) | 9,340 | 8,600 | 7,845 | 9,509 | 8,487 | 8,487 | 8,487 | 8,487 | 114,454 | 59,049 | 68,141 | 50,302 | 35,294 | 33,948 |
| 5G Units (m) | 42.5 | 41.0 | 39.5 | 41.0 | 41.5 | 41.5 | 41.0 | 42.5 | 166.0 | 152.5 | 198.9 | 210.5 | 164.0 | 166.5 |
| 5G ASPs (US$) | 47.43 | 41.52 | 43.15 | 45.17 | 51.17 | 51.17 | 49.52 | 56.62 | 36.39 | 35.14 | 36.91 | 42.27 | 44.35 | 52.15 |
| 5G Sales (NT$m) | 63,744 | 53,795 | 54,542 | 59,268 | 67,948 | 67,948 | 64,972 | 77,008 | 180,025 | 166,960 | 234,620 | 277,667 | 231,349 | 277,877 |
| Smartphone Units (m) | 82.5 | 78.0 | 72.5 | 81.0 | 76.5 | 76.5 | 76.0 | 77.5 | 536.0 | 380.5 | 449.9 | 417.5 | 314.0 | 306.5 |
| Smartphone ASPs (US$) | 28.02 | 25.31 | 26.89 | 26.53 | 31.22 | 31.22 | 30.21 | 34.47 | 18.43 | 19.07 | 21.06 | 25.18 | 26.70 | 31.79 |
| Smartphone Sales (NT$m) | 73,084 | 62,395 | 62,387 | 68,777 | 76,435 | 76,435 | 73,460 | 85,495 | 294,479 | 226,009 | 302,761 | 327,969 | 266,643 | 311,825 |
| QoQ / YoY Change | -18% | -15% | 0% | 10% | 11% | 0% | -4% | 16% | 9% | -23% | 34% | 8% | -19% | 17% |
| % of Sales | 49% | 41% | 40% | 32% | 27% | 25% | 23% | 25% | 54% | 52% | 57% | 55% | 40% | 25% |
| Non Mobile Metrics | Q126 | Q226 | Q326E | Q426E | Q127E | Q227E | Q327E | Q427E | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E |
| IoT, Compute, ASIC Sales (NT$m) | 41,016 | 48,809 | 52,226 | 111,592 | 172,392 | 192,831 | 202,597 | 212,975 | 145,357 | 107,721 | 116,056 | 137,459 | 253,643 | 780,796 |
| QoQ / YoY Change | 23% | 19% | 7% | 114% | 54% | 12% | 5% | 5% | 26% | -26% | 8% | 18% | 85% | 208% |
| % of Sales | 27% | 32% | 33% | 52% | 61% | 63% | 63% | 63% | 26% | 25% | 22% | 23% | 38% | 63% |
| Smart Home Sales (NT$m) | 27,593 | 31,848 | 33,758 | 27,007 | 25,656 | 29,505 | 32,750 | 31,113 | 68,975 | 70,671 | 81,269 | 102,241 | 120,206 | 119,025 |
| QoQ / YoY Change | 24% | 15% | 6% | -20% | -5% | 15% | 11% | -5% | -5% | 2% | 15% | 26% | 18% | -1% |
| % of Sales | 19% | 21% | 21% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 17% | 18% | 10% |
| Power IC Sales (NT$m) | 7,458 | 9,131 | 9,131 | 7,761 | 7,528 | 9,034 | 10,660 | 10,127 | 39,985 | 29,046 | 30,501 | 28,296 | 33,481 | 37,350 |
| QoQ / YoY Change | 24% | 22% | 0% | -15% | -3% | 20% | 18% | -5% | 15% | -27% | 5% | -7% | 18% | 12% |
| % of Sales | 5% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| Mediatek Totals | Q126 | Q226 | Q326E | Q426E | Q127E | Q227E | Q327E | Q427E | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E |
| Total Sales (NT$m) | 149,151 | 152,183 | 157,503 | 215,137 | 282,012 | 307,805 | 319,468 | 339,711 | 548,796 | 433,446 | 530,586 | 595,966 | 673,973 | 1,248,996 |
| QoQ / YoY Change | -1% | 2% | 3% | 37% | 31% | 9% | 4% | 6% | 11% | -21% | 22% | 12% | 13% | 85% |
| GM % | 46.3% | 46.2% | 46.3% | 45.8% | 44.9% | 44.8% | 45.0% | 44.8% | 49.4% | 47.8% | 49.6% | 47.5% | 46.1% | 44.9% |
| OpM % | 15.3% | 15.0% | 15.3% | 17.3% | 23.8% | 25.7% | 25.9% | 25.8% | 23.1% | 16.6% | 19.3% | 17.4% | 15.9% | 25.3% |
| Pro Forma EPS (NT$) | 15.17 | 15.28 | 14.98 | 22.20 | 38.00 | 44.20 | 46.29 | 49.03 | 74.59 | 48.51 | 66.94 | 66.17 | 67.63 | 177.51 |
| Dividend Per Share (NT$) | 0.0 | 24.4 | 0.0 | 29.7 | 0.0 | 65.8 | 0.0 | 76.2 | 76.2 | 55.0 | 54.0 | 53.5 | 54.1 | 142.0 |
ource: Company data, UB estimates
Figure 4: Revisions to UBS earnings estimates
| (NT$m) | New - 2026E | New - 2027E | New - 2028E | Old - 2026E | Old - 2027E | Old - 2028E | Change - 2026E | Change - 2027E | Change - 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 673,973 | 1,248,996 | 2,139,567 | 673,974 | 1,278,048 | 1,902,512 | 0% | -2% | 12% |
| - YoY chg (%) Gross profit - Gross margin | 13% 310,833 46.1% | 85% 560,341 44.9% | 71% 938,344 43.9% | 13% 310,834 46.1% | 90% 574,069 44.9% | 49% 840,709 44.2% | 0% | -2% | 12% |
| Operating profit - Operating margin | 107,089 15.9% | 316,482 25.3% | 661,915 30.9% | 107,089 15.9% | 324,646 25.4% | 546,963 28.7% | 0% | -3% | 21% |
| Pre-tax profit | 124,243 | 330,666 | 676,873 | 124,220 | 338,009 | 561,372 | 0% | -2% | 21% |
| Reported net profit | 107,707 | 282,719 | 578,726 | 107,688 | 288,998 | 479,973 | 0% | -2% | 21% |
| - Net margin Reported EPS (NT$) | 16.0% 67.63 | 22.6% 177.51 | 27.0% 363.36 | 16.0% 67.61 | 22.6% 181.45 | 25.2% 301.36 | 0% | -2% | 21% |
| - YoY chg (%) UBS EPS (NT$) | 2% 67.63 | 162% 177.51 | 105% 363.36 | 2% 67.61 | 168% 181.45 | 66% 301.36 | 0% | -2% | 21% |
| - YoY chg (%) | 2% | 162% | 105% | 2% | 168% | 66% | - | - | - |
ource: UB estimates. Note: Our EP estimates here are based on basic EP , and may differ from the table on the cover page.
Figure 5: UBS vs consensus earnings estimates
| (NT$m) | UBS - 2026E | UBS - 2027E | UBS - 2028E | Consensus - 2026F | Consensus - 2027F | Consensus - 2028F | Difference - 2026E | Difference - 2027E | Difference - 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 673,973 | 1,248,996 | 2,139,567 | 652,231 | 1,042,344 | 1,780,037 | 3% | 20% | 20% |
| - YoY chg (%) | 13% | 85% | 71% | 9% | 60% | 71% | |||
| Gross profit | 310,833 | 560,341 | 938,344 | 299,005 | 465,779 | 780,855 | 4% | 20% | 20% |
| - Gross margin | 46.1% | 44.9% | 43.9% | 45.8% | 44.7% | 43.9% | |||
| Operating profit | 107,089 | 316,482 | 661,915 | 105,903 | 208,530 | 423,548 | 1% | 52% | 56% |
| - Operating margin | 15.9% | 25.3% | 30.9% | 16.2% | 20.0% | 23.8% | |||
| Net profit | 107,707 | 282,719 | 578,726 | 107,083 | 211,725 | 405,157 | 1% | 34% | 43% |
| - Net margin | 16.0% | 22.6% | 27.0% | 16.4% | 20.3% | 22.8% | |||
| Basic EPS (NT$) | 67.63 | 177.51 | 363.36 | 66.93 | 130.71 | 252.85 | 1% | 36% | 44% |
| - YoY chg (%) | 2% | 162% | 105% | 1% | 95% | 93% |
ource: L EG, UB estimates. Note: Our EP estimates are based on basic EP and may differ from the table on the cover page
Figure 6: UBS earnings forecasts
| (NT$m) | 2025 | Q126 | Q226 | Q326E | Q426E | 2026E | Q127E | Q227E | Q327E | Q427E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 595,966 | 149,151 | 152,183 | 157,503 | 215,137 | 673,973 | 282,012 | 307,805 | 319,468 | 339,711 | 1,248,996 | 2,139,567 | 2,484,450 | 2,791,050 |
| - YoY chg (%) | 12% | -3% | 1% | 11% | 43% | 13% | 89% | 102% | 103% | 58% | 85% | 71% | 16% | 12% |
| - QoQ chg (%) | - | -1% | 2% | 3% | 37% | - | 31% | 9% | 4% | 6% | - | - | - | - |
| Revenue (US$ mn) | 19,100 | 4,717 | 4,816 | 4,922 | 6,723 | 21,191 | 8,813 | 9,619 | 9,983 | 10,616 | 39,031 | 66,861 | 77,639 | 87,220 |
| - YoY chg (%) | 15% | 1% | -1% | 4% | 39% | 11% | 87% | 100% | 103% | 58% | 84% | 71% | 16% | 12% |
| - QoQ chg (%) | - | -2% | 2% | 2% | 37% | - | 31% | 9% | 4% | 6% | - | - | - | - |
| Gross profit | 283,080 | 69,055 | 70,308 | 72,911 | 98,559 | 310,833 | 126,507 | 137,969 | 143,692 | 152,172 | 560,341 | 938,344 | 1,084,251 | 1,216,490 |
| - Gross margin | 47.5% | 46.3% | 46.2% | 46.3% | 45.8% | 46.1% | 44.9% | 44.8% | 45.0% | 44.8% | 44.9% | 43.9% | 43.6% | 43.6% |
| Operating profit | 103,470 | 22,891 | 22,868 | 24,086 | 37,245 | 107,089 | 67,003 | 79,179 | 82,674 | 87,627 | 316,482 | 661,915 | 788,602 | 884,355 |
| - Operating margin | 17.4% | 15.3% | 15.0% | 15.3% | 17.3% | 15.9% | 23.8% | 25.7% | 25.9% | 25.8% | 25.3% | 30.9% | 31.7% | 31.7% |
| Non-op profit | 21,418 | 4,129 | 5,094 | 3,818 | 4,113 | 17,154 | 3,789 | 3,150 | 3,549 | 3,697 | 14,184 | 14,958 | 19,278 | 24,780 |
| Pre-tax profit | 124,888 | 27,019 | 27,962 | 27,903 | 41,358 | 124,243 | 70,791 | 82,328 | 86,222 | 91,324 | 330,666 | 676,873 | 807,879 | 909,134 |
| Net profit | 105,319 | 24,154 | 24,335 | 23,857 | 35,361 | 107,707 | 60,527 | 70,391 | 73,720 | 78,082 | 282,719 | 578,726 | 690,737 | 777,310 |
| - YoY chg (%) | -1% | -18% | -13% | -5% | 54% | 2% | 151% | 189% | 209% | 121% | 162% | 105% | 19% | 13% |
| - QoQ chg (%) | - | 5% | 1% | -2% | 48% | - | 71% | 16% | 5% | 6% | - | - | - | - |
| Basic EPS (NT$) | 66.17 | 15.17 | 15.28 | 14.98 | 22.20 | 67.63 | 38.00 | 44.20 | 46.29 | 49.03 | 177.51 | 363.36 | 433.69 | 488.05 |
| - YoY chg (%) | -1% | -18% | -13% | -5% | 54% | 2% | 151% | 189% | 209% | 121% | 162% | 105% | 19% | 13% |
| - QoQ chg (%) | - | 5% | 1% | -2% | 48% | - | 71% | 16% | 5% | 6% | - | - | - | - |
| UBS EPS (NT$) | 66.17 | 15.17 | 15.28 | 14.98 | 22.20 | 67.63 | 38.00 | 44.20 | 46.29 | 49.03 | 177.51 | 363.36 | 433.69 | 488.05 |
| - YoY chg (%) | -1% | -17% | -12% | -5% | 55% | 2% | 151% | 189% | 209% | 121% | 162% | 105% | 19% | 13% |
| - QoQ chg (%) | - | 6% | 1% | -2% | 48% | - | 71% | 16% | 5% | 6% | - | - | - | - |
ource: Company data, UB estimates. Note: Our EP estimates are based on basic EP and may differ from the table on the cover page
Figure 7: MediaTek's 12-month forward P (x)
ource: Company data, L EG, UB
MediaTek Inc. (2454.TW)
| Income Statement (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | %ch | 12/27 | %ch | 12/28 | 12/29 | 12/30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 433,446 | 530,586 | 595,966 | 673,973 | 13.1 | 1,248,996 | 85.3 | 2,139,567 | 2,484,450 | 2,791,050 |
| Gross profit | 207,367 | 263,386 | 283,080 | 310,833 | 9.8 | 560,341 | 80.3 | 938,344 | 1,084,251 | 1,216,490 |
| BITDA (UBS) | 90,000 | 123,348 | 126,444 | 133,369 | 5.5 | 343,189 | 157.3 | 690,308 | 818,534 | 915,918 |
| Depreciation & amortisation | (18,200) | (20,936) | (22,974) | (26,279) | -14.4 | (26,707) | -1.6 | (28,393) | (29,932) | (31,563) |
| BIT (UBS) | 71,800 | 102,412 | 103,470 | 107,089 | 3.5 | 316,482 | 195.5 | 661,915 | 788,602 | 884,355 |
| Associates & investment income | 278 | 517 | 785 | 630 | -19.8 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other non-operating income | 7,726 | 5,903 | 10,411 | 7,976 | -23.4 | 8,400 | 5.3 | 9,200 | 9,200 | 9,200 |
| Net interest | 6,979 | 10,687 | 10,222 | 8,548 | -16.4 | 5,784 | -32.3 | 5,758 | 10,078 | 15,580 |
| Exceptionals (incl goodwill) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pre-tax profit | 86,782 | 119,519 | 124,888 | 124,243 | -0.5 | 330,666 | 166.1 | 676,873 | 807,879 | 909,134 |
| Tax | (9,591) | (12,378) | (18,770) | (16,043) | 14.5 | (47,947) | -198.9 | (98,147) | (117,143) | (131,824) |
| Profit after tax dividends | 77,191 | 107,141 | 106,118 | 108,200 | 2.0 | 282,719 | 161.3 | 578,726 | 690,737 | 777,310 |
| Preference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minorities | (212) | (754) | (798) | (493) | 38.3 - | 0 0 | - | 0 0 | 0 | 0 0 |
| Extraordinary items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | ||||
| Net earnings (local GAAP) | 76,979 | 106,387 | 105,319 | 107,707 | 2.3 | 282,719 | 162.5 | 578,726 | 690,737 | 777,310 |
| Net earnings (UBS) | 76,979 | 106,387 | 105,319 | 107,707 | 2.3 | 282,719 | 162.5 | 578,726 | 690,737 | 777,310 |
| Tax rate (%) | 11.1 | 10.4 | 15.0 | 12.9 | -14.1 | 14.5 | 12.3 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| Per Share (NT$) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | %ch | 12/27 | %ch | 12/28 | 12/29 | 12/30 |
| EP (UB , diluted) | 48.34 | 66.81 | 66.07 | 67.49 | 2.1 | 177.15 | 162.5 | 362.63 | 432.81 | 487.06 |
| EP (local GAAP, diluted) | 48.34 | 66.81 | 66.07 | 67.49 | 2.1 | 177.15 | 162.5 | 362.63 | 432.81 | 487.06 |
| EP (UB , basic) | 48.51 | 66.94 | 66.17 | 67.63 | 2.2 | 177.51 | 162.5 | 363.36 | 433.69 | 488.05 |
| DP (net) (NT$) | 79.48 | 82.90 | 54.10 | 142.01 | 162.5 | 290.69 | 346.95 | 390.44 | ||
| Cash EP (UB , diluted) 1 | 59.77 | 79.95 | 53.50 80.48 | 83.96 | 1.1 4.3 | 193.89 | 130.9 | 380.42 | 451.57 | 506.84 |
| Book value per share | 230.18 | 247.95 | 249.76 | 279.16 | 11.8 | 361.17 | 29.4 | 522.19 | 622.31 | 740.77 |
| Average shares (diluted) | 1,592 | 1,592 | 1,594 | 1,596 | 0.1 | 1,596 | 0.0 | 1,596 | 1,596 | 1,596 |
| Balance Sheet (NT$m) Cash and equivalents | 12/23 165,396 | 12/24 203,696 | 12/25 235,290 | 12/26 186,083 | %ch -20.9 | 12/27 232,007 | %ch 24.7 | 12/28 | 12/29 | 12/30 590,624 |
| Other current assets | 125,493 | 147,330 | 162,166 | 226,295 | 39.5 | 354,651 | 56.7 | 201,901 662,817 | 437,328 668,999 | 735,328 |
| Total current assets | 290,889 | 351,025 | 397,456 | 412,378 | 586,658 | 42.3 | 864,718 | 1,106,327 | 1,325,952 | |
| Net tangible fixed assets | 53,291 | 56,917 | 60,427 | 59,001 | 3.8 -2.4 | 50,455 | -14.5 | 42,039 | 34,082 | 26,691 |
| Net intangible fixed assets | 138,631 | 117,400 | 114,400 | 197,957 | 73.0 | 312,582 | 57.9 | 586,459 | 591,849 | 651,255 |
| Investments / other assets | 152,228 | 172,525 | 171,501 | 179,939 | 4.9 | 172,361 | -4.2 | 164,783 | 157,205 | 149,628 |
| Total assets | 635,038 | 697,868 | 743,785 | 849,275 | 1,122,057 | 32.1 | 1,657,999 | 1,889,463 | 2,153,526 | |
| Trade payables & other T liabilities | 229,799 | 265,962 | 302,410 | 330,400 | 14.2 | 444,439 | 34.5 | 656,697 | 727,386 | 788,195 |
| hort term debt | 2,200 | 940 | 940 | 17,100 | 9.3 NM | 17,100 | 0.0 | 17,100 | 17,100 | 17,100 |
| Total current liabilities | 231,999 | 266,902 | 303,350 | 347,500 | 14.6 | 461,539 | 32.8 | 673,797 | 744,486 | 805,295 |
| Long term debt | 0 | 0 | 60 | 120 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 120 | 120 | ||
| Other long term liabilities | 28,834 | 25,910 | 31,180 | 48,585 | 120 76,718 | 57.9 | 143,936 | 145,259 | 120 159,840 | |
| Preferred shares | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 55.8 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total liabilities (incl pref shares) | 260,833 | 292,812 | 334,590 | 396,205 | - 18.4 | 538,377 | 35.9 | 817,853 | 889,866 | 965,254 |
| Common s/h equity | 6,000 | 8,428 | 8,594 | 8,451 | -1.7 | 8,451 | 0.0 | 8,451 | 8,451 | 8,451 |
| Minority interests | 368,206 | 396,627 | 400,601 | 444,618 | 11.0 | 575,228 | 29.4 | 831,694 | 991,146 | 1,179,820 |
| Total liabilities & equity | 635,038 | 697,868 | 743,785 | 849,275 | 14.2 | 1,122,057 | 32.1 | 1,657,999 | 1,889,463 | 2,153,526 |
| Cash Flow (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | %ch | 12/27 | %ch | 12/28 | 12/29 | 12/30 |
| Net income (before pref divs) Depreciation & amortisation | 76,979 18,200 | 106,387 20,936 | 105,319 22,974 | 107,707 26,279 | 2.3 14.4 | 282,719 26,707 | 162.5 1.6 | 578,726 28,393 | 690,737 29,932 | 777,310 31,563 |
| Net change in working capital | 30,356 | (1,001) | (19,508) | (24,177) | -23.9 | (61,271) | -153.4 | (146,622) | (2,903) | (31,725) |
| Other operating | 43,759 | 30,981 | 40,016 | (14,095) | - | (11,412) | 19.0 | (37,794) | 6,685 | (2,264) |
| Operating cash flow | 169,294 | 157,303 | 148,801 | 95,715 | -35.7 | 236,744 | 147.3 | 422,704 | 724,450 | 774,884 |
| Tangible capital | (9,317) | (13,771) | (15,009) 0 | (16,510) | -10.0 | (18,161) | -10.0 | (19,977) | (21,975) | (24,172) |
| expenditure Intangible capital expenditure | - | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Net (acquisitions) & disposals | 0 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | |||
| Other investing | (19,429) | 0 (22,157) | 0 (22,745) | 0 (70,851) | - -211.5 | (114,626) | - -61.8 | 0 (273,876) | 0 (5,390) | 0 (59,407) |
| Investing cash flow | (28,746) | (35,928) | (37,754) | (87,362) | -131.4 | (132,787) | -52.0 | (293,853) | (27,365) | (83,579) |
| Equity dividends paid | (120,981) | (87,551) | (86,070) 0 | (85,583) | 0.6 | (86,166) | -0.7 | (226,175) | (462,981) | (552,590) |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| hare issues / (buybacks) | 0 | 0 | - | - | ||||||
| Other financing | 4,740 0 | (1,309) 0 | (1,665) | 13,134 0 | - | 28,133 | 114.2 - | 67,218 0 | 1,323 | 14,580 0 |
| Change in debt & pref shares Financing cash flow | (116,241) | (88,859) | 0 (87,735) | (72,449) | - 17.4 | 0 (58,033) | 19.9 | (158,957) | 0 (461,658) | (538,009) |
| Cash flow inc/(dec) in | 24,307 | 32,516 | 23,312 | - | - | (30,106) | 235,427 | |||
| cash | (6,413) | (64,095) 14,888 | 79.8 | 45,924 0 | 0 | 0 | 153,296 | |||
| FX / non cash items cash | 5,784 | 8,282 | (49,207) | - | - | 235,427 | 0 | |||
| Balance sheet inc/(dec) in | 17,894 | 38,300 | 45,924 | (30,106) | ||||||
| 153,296 | ||||||||||
| 31,594 | - |
ource: Company accounts, UB estimates. (UB ) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UB analysts. 1 Cash EP (UB , diluted) is calculated using UB net income adding back depreciation and amortization.
MediaTek Inc. (2454.TW)
| Valuation (x) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | 12/27 | 12/28 | 12/29 | 12/30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (local GAAP, diluted) | 15.8 | 17.9 | 20.8 | NM | 29.3 | 14.3 | 12.0 | 10.6 |
| P/E (UB , diluted) | 15.8 | 17.9 | 20.8 | 76.8 | 29.3 | 14.3 | 12.0 | 10.6 |
| P/CEP | 12.7 | 15.0 | 17.0 | 61.6 | 26.7 | 13.6 | 11.4 | 10.2 |
| Equity FCF (UB ) yield % | 13.1 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 8.4 | 9.0 |
| Dividend yield (net) % | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 7.5 |
| P/BV | 3.3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 18.6 | 14.3 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 |
| EV/revenues (core) | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | NM | 6.4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 2.7 |
| EV/EBITDA (UB core) | 10.2 | 12.7 | 14.6 | 59.5 | 23.2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 8.4 |
| EV/EBIT (core) | 12.8 | 15.3 | 17.9 | 74.1 | 25.1 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 8.7 |
| EV/OpFCF (core) | 10.2 | 12.7 | 14.6 | 59.4 | 23.2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 8.4 |
| EV/op. invested capital | 7.9 | 35.4 | >100 | >100 | 52.9 | 23.1 | 17.2 | 17.3 |
| nterprise value (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | 12/27 | 12/28 | 12/29 | 12/30 |
| Market cap. | 1,223,015 | 1,917,245 | 2,194,728 | 8,316,285 | 8,316,285 | 8,316,285 | 8,316,285 | 8,316,285 |
| Net debt (cash) | (153,499) | (182,976) | (182,976) | (201,577) | (191,825) | (199,734) | (302,394) | (496,756) |
| Buy out of minorities | 4,474 | 7,214 | 8,511 | 8,523 | 8,451 | 8,451 | 8,451 | 8,451 |
| Pension provisions/other | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 | 61 |
| Total enterprise value | 1,074,051 | 1,741,544 | 2,020,324 | 8,123,292 | 8,132,972 | 8,125,063 | 8,022,403 | 7,828,041 |
| Non core assets | (152,228) | (172,525) | (171,501) | (179,939) | (172,361) | (164,783) | (157,205) | (149,628) |
| Core enterprise value | 921,823 | 1,569,020 | 1,848,823 | 7,943,353 | 7,960,611 | 7,960,280 | 7,865,198 | 7,678,414 |
| Growth (%) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | 12/27 | 12/28 | 12/29 | 12/30 |
| Revenue | (21.0) | 22.4 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 85.3 | 71.3 | 16.1 | 12.3 |
| EBITDA (UB ) | (36.5) | 37.1 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 157.3 | 101.1 | 18.6 | 11.9 |
| EBIT (UB ) | (43.4) | 42.6 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 195.5 | 109.1 | 19.1 | 12.1 |
| EP (UB , diluted) | (35.0) | 38.2 | (1.1) | 2.1 | 162.5 | 104.7 | 19.4 | 12.5 |
| Net DP | 4.3 | 4.3 | (35.5) | 1.1 | 162.5 | 104.7 | 19.4 | 12.5 |
| Margins & Profitability (%) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | 12/27 | 12/28 | 12/29 | 12/30 |
| Gross profit margin | 47.8 | 49.6 | 47.5 | 46.1 | 44.9 | 43.9 | 43.6 | 43.6 |
| EBITDA margin | 20.8 | 23.2 | 21.2 | 19.8 | 27.5 | 32.3 | 32.9 | 32.8 |
| EBIT (UB ) margin | 16.6 | 19.3 | 17.4 | 15.9 | 25.3 | 30.9 | 31.7 | 31.7 |
| Net earnings (UB ) margin | 17.8 | 20.1 | 17.7 | 16.0 | 22.6 | 27.0 | 27.8 | 27.9 |
| ROIC (EBIT) | 61.8 | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
| ROIC post tax | 54.9 | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
| ROE (UB ) | 19.0 | 27.8 | 26.4 | 25.5 | 55.4 | 82.3 | 75.8 | 71.6 |
| Capital structure & Coverage (x) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | 12/27 | 12/28 | 12/29 | 12/30 |
| Net debt / EBITDA | (1.8) | (1.6) | (1.9) | (1.3) | (0.6) | (0.3) | (0.5) | (0.6) |
| Net debt / total equity % | (43.6) | (50.1) | (57.3) | (37.3) | (36.8) | (22.0) | (42.0) | (48.3) |
| Net debt / (net debt + total equity) % | (77.3) | NM | NM | (59.4) | (58.2) | (28.2) | (72.5) | (93.3) |
| Net debt/EV % | (14.3) | (10.5) | (10.8) | (2.5) | (2.4) | (2.5) | (3.8) | (6.3) |
| Capex / depreciation % | 51.2 | 65.8 | 65.3 | 62.8 | 68.0 | 70.4 | 73.4 | 76.6 |
| Capex / revenue % | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| EBIT / net interest | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Dividend cover (UB ) | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Div. payout ratio (UB ) % | 163.8 | 123.8 | 80.9 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 |
| Revenues by division (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26 | 12/27 | 12/28 | 12/29 | 12/30 |
| Others | 433,446 | 530,586 | 595,966 | 673,973 | 1,248,996 | 2,139,567 | 2,484,450 | 2,791,050 |
| Total | 433,446 | 530,586 | 595,966 | 1,248,996 | 2,139,567 | 2,791,050 | ||
| BIT (UBS) | 673,973 | 2,484,450 | ||||||
| by division (NT$m) Core | 12/23 71,800 | 12/24 102,412 | 12/25 103,470 | 12/26 107,089 | 12/27 316,482 | 12/28 661,915 | 12/29 788,602 | 12/30 884,355 |
| Others | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 71,800 | 102,412 | 103,470 | 107,089 | 316,482 | 661,915 | 788,602 | 884,355 |
ource: Company accounts, UB estimates. (UB ) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UB analysts.
Forecast returns
| F recast price appreciati n | 40.8% |
|---|---|
| F recast dividend yield | 1.0% |
| F recast st ck return | 41.8% |
| Market return assumpti n | 6.3% |
| F recast excess return | 35.6% |
Company Description
MediaTek is a leading integrated circuit (IC) design company in Taiwan, focusing on solutions from the edge to the cloud, applications for its product offerings range from smartphones, smart homes and AI PCs to high-performance computing, automotive, and AI data centers.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
Our price target for MediaTek is based on a target PE methodology.
Fabless integrated circuit (IC) design houses face a variety of uncertainties, including rapidly changing technology, end-market demand, competition, employee turnover and foundry wafer costs. They are also vulnerable to legal disputes over intellectual property rights. In addition, MediaTek is exposed to potential price competition in handset oC, TV oC, etc. Downside risks include slower-than-expected market share gains and a weaker-thanexpected demand recovery.
Quantitative Research Review
UB Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UB Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UB sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UB sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.
MediaTek Inc.
| Question | Response |
|---|---|
| 1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely t impr ve r deteri rate ver the next six m nths? Rate n a scale f 1-5 (1 = getting w rse, 3 = n change, 5 = getting better, N/A = n view) | 4 |
| 2. Is the regulat ry/g vernment envir nment facing the firm likely t impr ve r deteri rate ver the next six m nths? Rate n a scale f 1-5 (1 = getting t ugher 3 = n change, 5 = getting better, N/A = n view) | 3 |
| 3. Over the last 3-6 m nths in br ad terms have things been impr ving/n change/getting w rse f r this st ck? Rate n a scale f 1-5 (1 = getting a l t w rse, 3 = n t much change, 5 = getting a l t better, N/A = n view) | 4 |
| 4. Relative t the current CONSENSUS EPS f recast, is the next c mpany EPS update likely t lead t : (1 = negative surprise vs c nsensus, 3 = in-line with c nsensus, 5 = p sitive surprise vs c nsensus expectati ns, N/A = n view) | 4 |
| 5. What's driving the difference? | |
| 6. Relative t YOUR current earnings f recast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result f:(1 = d wnside skew risk t earnings, 3 = equal upside r d wnside risk t earnings, 5 = upside skew risk t earnings, N/A = n view) | 3 |
| 7. What's driving the difference? | |
| 8. Is there an upc ming catalyst f r the c mpany ver the next three m nths? | P sitive Catalyst |
| 9. Is there an actual r appr ximate date f r the catalyst? | |
| 10. Is the catalyst date an actual r appr ximate date? | |
| 11. What is the catalyst? |