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原始內容
First Read
Wiwynn
Reaffirm the strong growth through 2027
New platforms support AI stren th into 2027 while eneral server slower before next ramp in 2027
We maintain our Buy on Wiwynn with a price target of $ 2,470 and also in the UBS regional most preferred tech list Amid the market noise, we stay positive on the company's growth, with catalysts from liquid cooled ASIC servers in initial production and ramping up further through 2027 and Helios racks on track as a new project commencing from late 2026E through 2027 We do see general server cooling into Sep and Q426 to offset the ASIC server ramp before picking up from Q127 as customers transition to the next-generation Clearwater Forest/Venice platforms
Au ust sales ahead supported by eneral server rowth
Wiwynn August sales of NT$144 3bn, +22 6% MoM, 50 4% YoY tracked ahead at 74%/73% UBSe/Street of +27%/+29% QoQ estimate in Q3 We believe the growth is driven mainly driven by pre-build ahead of further price hikes The company is seeing tight supply across major component includes memory, CPU and PCB, but the impact on deliveries has been limited through August Since Q226, the company has booked general server memory on its balance sheet rather than through sales and COGs, which lifted gross margin in Q2 We factor in lower NRE and mix shifting from general server now the highest margin with the consigned memory toward ASIC to lower GM/OpM off the higher Q2 base of 9 3/7 3% to 8 8/6 8% in Q3 and 8 7/6 7% in Q4
Multiple drivers support another stron year in 2027
We maintain 2027 revenue growth +89% YoY to NT$2,491bn, reflecting strength across ASICs further ramping and rising liquid penetration toward 30% this generation, GPUs with Helios racks ramping to 6-7k and general server continuing double digit volume growth We keep more conservative on Vera Rubin following limited shipments on GB300 although should begin shipping in small volumes in Q426 and contributing ~2% of sales in 2027
Reiterate our BUY with price tar et of NT$2,470 (7,350 pre-split)
Following the recent 3-1 stock split, all per-share data below are on a post-split basis We reiterate our Buy rating and keep our basic EPS of NT$226 4/NT$174 1 reflecting better margins, intact ASIC and general server ramps and customer AMD project from Q4 into 2027 Our PT of NT$2,470 is based on same 14x P/E on 2027E EPS also with 3% cash yield (NT$74 cash dividend) We maintain a positive view reflecting Wiwynn's leverage to ASIC servers, AMD racks, alongside healthy general server demand
| Hi hli hts (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 241,901 | 360,541 | 950,663 | 1,315,206 | 2,491,432 | 3,041,549 | 3,471,055 | 4,067,017 |
| EBIT (UBS) | 15,871 | 28,099 | 63,918 | 88,819 | 127,715 | 149,247 | 168,770 | 192,931 |
| Net earnin s (UBS) | 12,044 | 22,776 | 51,118 | 67,457 | 97,567 | 113,643 | 128,687 | 146,809 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | 23 09 | 42 79 | 92 22 | 121 69 | 176 01 | 205 01 | 232 15 | 264 84 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 16 76 | 14 08 | 24 81 | 38 81 | 73 65 | 105 61 | 123 01 | 139 29 |
| Net (debt) / cash | 30,168 | 26,425 | 2,907 | 7,421 | 20,785 | 27,993 | 36,416 | 42,493 |
| Profitability/valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EBIT (UBS) mar in % | 6 6 | 7 8 | 6 7 | 6 8 | 5 1 | 4 9 | 4 9 | 4 7 |
| ROIC (EBIT) % | 94 2 | 77 0 | 70 5 | 77 2 | 97 1 | 84 3 | 74 3 | 67 7 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x | 12 8 | 12 1 | 7 7 | 12 5 | 8 6 | 7 4 | 6 4 | 5 6 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) x | 19 9 | 17 3 | 10 5 | 17 5 | 12 1 | 10 4 | 9 2 | 8 1 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield % | 7 6 | (6 5) | (2 7) | 1 1 | 2 7 | 5 3 | 6 3 | 6 8 |
| Dividend yield (net) % | 3 6 | 1 9 | 2 6 | 1 8 | 3 4 | 4 9 | 5 8 | 6 5 |
Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 2,135 00 on 17-Sep-2026
Equities
Taiwan
Electric Components & Equipment
| 12-month ratin | Buy |
|---|---|
| 12m price tar et | NT$2,470.00 Prior : NT$2,464 |
| Price (17 Sep 2026) | NT$2,135 |
| RIC: 6669 TWBBG: 6669 TT |
Tradin data and key metrics
| 52-wk ran e | NT$2,615 00-1,022 53 |
|---|---|
| Market cap. | NT$1,172b/US$36 8b |
| Shares o/s | 549m (ORD) |
| Free float | 43% |
| Av . daily volume ('000) | 5,312 |
| Av . daily value (m) | NT$10,501 6 |
| Common s/h equity (12/26E) | NT$119b |
| P/BV (12/26E) | 9 9x |
| Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | NM |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | UBS | Cons. |
|---|---|---|
| 12/26E | 121 69 | 123 85 |
| 12/27E | 176 01 | 179 17 |
| 12/28E | 205 01 | 223 71 |
Randy Abrams
Analyst randy abrams@ubs com +886-2-8722 7338
Irene Chan
Associate Analyst irene chang@ubs com +886-2-8722 7280
Fi ure 1: UBSe vs. VA Consensus Q126-Q226E and 2026-27E
| (NT$m) | Q126 - Actual | Q226 - Actual | Q326E - UBSe | Q326E - VA | Q426E - UBSe | Q426E - VA | 2025 2026E - Actual UBSe | 2025 2026E - VA | 2027E - UBSe | 2027E - VA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 276,508 | 278,153 | 352,297 | 353,672 | 408,249 | 429,709 | 950,663 | 1,315,206 1,338,041 | 2,491,432 | 2,485,855 |
| - QoQ / YoY | -5.4% | 0.6% | 26.7% | 27.2% | 15.9% | 21.5% | 163.7% | 38.3% 40.7% | 89.4% | 85.8% |
| Gross profit | 20,881 | 25,763 | 31,028 | 30,556 | 35,478 | 34,778 | 78,454 | 113,150 111,859 | 177,908 | 170,620 |
| - Gross margin | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% |
| Operating profit | 17,458 | 20,218 | 23,912 | 24,962 | 27,231 | 28,301 | 63,918 | 88,819 90,979 | 127,715 | 137,564 |
| - OP margin | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% |
| Non-op profit | 476 | -1,244 | -768 | -642 | -810 | -764 | 2,135 | -2,346 -1860 | -4,210 | -3,473 |
| Pre-tax profit | 17,934 | 18,974 | 23,144 | 24,320 | 26,421 | 27,537 | 66,052 | 86,473 88,842 | 123,506 | 134,091 |
| Tax | -3,820 | -4,005 | -5,092 | -5,421 | -5,608 | -5,920 | -14,934 | -18,524 -19,201 | -26,846 | -29,534 |
| - Tax rate | 21% | 21.1% | 22.0% | 22.3% | 21.2% | 21.5% | 22.6% | 21.4% 21.6% | 21.7% | 22.0% |
| Net profit | 14,114 | 14,969 | 18,052 | 18,899 | 20,813 | 21,617 | 51,118 | 67,949 69,641 | 96,659 | 104,557 |
| EPS (NT$) | 75.95 | 80.43 | 32.52 | 34.89 | 37.49 | 41.26 | 275.06 | 226.39 128.40 | 174.12 | 188.18 |
Source: Company data, Visible Alpha, UBS estimates Note: 2026E EPS shows reported number (pre-abnormal and goodwill) Wiwynn had a 3-for-1 stock split (ex-rights date 2026/9/2, calculation starting from Q326)
Fi ure 2: Wiwynn revenue drivers from General, ASIC and AI servers
| Sales % by Product | Q126 | Q226 | Q326E | Q426E | Q127E | Q227E | Q327E | Q427E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASIC server chips (k units) | 326.0 9.1 | 281.0 7.8 | 375.0 | 441.0 | 455.0 12.6 | 465.0 | 465.0 12.9 | 465.0 12.9 |
| ASIC server rack (k units) | 10.4 | 12.3 | 12.9 | |||||
| ASIC server rack ASP (NT$k) | $12,382 | $12,739 | $15,284 | $16,512 | $16,515 | $16,516 | $16,516 | $16,681 |
| ASIC Server Revenue (NT$mn) | $112,122 | $99,439 | $159,206 | $202,272 | $208,727 | $213,338 | $213,338 | $215,459 |
| QoQ (%) | -21% | -11% | 60% | 27% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| YoY (%) | 144% | 40% | 29% | 42% | 86% | 115% | 34% | 7% |
| ASIC server (%) of total | 41% | 36% | 45% | 50% | 44% | 34% | 31% | 31% |
| General servers (k units) | 660.8 | 798.5 | 838.4 | 843.0 | 852.1 | 902.7 | 951.4 | 932.6 |
| General server rack (k units) | 17.4 | 21.0 | 22.1 | 22.2 | 22.4 | 23.8 | 25.0 | 24.5 |
| General server ASP (NT$k) | $9,290 | $8,360 | $8,611 | $8,876 | $8,892 | $8,882 | $8,878 | $8,877 |
| General Server Revenue (NT$mn) | $161,539 | $175,674 | $189,991 | $196,899 | $199,399 | $211,007 | $222,278 | $217,858 |
| QoQ (%) | 27% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 5% | -2% |
| YoY (%) | 33% | 23% | 41% | 55% | 23% | 20% | 17% | 11% |
| General server (%) of total | 58% | 63% | 54% | 48% | 42% | 34% | 32% | 31% |
| NVIDIA Racks (units) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 40 | 50 | 70 | 90 |
| AMD Racks (units) GPU Racks (units) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 35 | 500 540 | 1,500 1,550 | 2,000 2,070 | 2,000 2,090 |
| Rack blended ASP (US$mn) | $4.0 | $4.0 | $4.0 | $5.4 | $4.0 | $3.9 | $3.9 | |
| NT$/US$ | $31.6 | $31.6 | $32.0 | $32.0 | $32.0 | $32.0 | $32.0 | $3.9 $32.0 |
| GPU AI server (%) of total | 0% | $126 | 0% | $6,016 | $68,480 | $192,000 31% | $256,640 37% | $260,480 37% |
| GPU AI server revenue (NT$mn) | $126 | 0% | $128 | 1% | 14% | $619,436 | $695,378 | $696,951 |
| AI mix (%) | 51% | 58% | 65% | 68% | 68% | |||
| Total Revenue (NT$mn) | $276,508 41% | $278,153 | $352,297 45% | $408,249 | $479,667 $7,680 | $9,600 | $13,440 | $17,280 |
| Nvidia AI server revenue (NT$mn) GPU AI server (%) of total | $126 0% | 36% $126 0% | $128 0% | $4,800 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Storage and Other | $2,721 | $2,914 | $2,972 | $3,061 | $3,061 | $3,092 | $3,122 | $3,154 |
| Total Revenue (NT$mn) | $276,508 | $278,153 | $352,297 | $408,249 | $479,667 | $619,436 | $695,378 | $696,951 |
| QoQ | -5% | 1% | 27% | 16% | 17% | 29% | 12% | 0% |
| (%) | 62% | 26% | ||||||
| YoY (%) | 32% | 40% | 73% | 123% | 97% | 71% |
| 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1057.6 33.1 $11,579 | 1423.0 39.5 $14,497 | 1850.0 51.4 $16,557 | 2204.5 55.1 $17,902 |
| 888% | 50% 44% | 48% 34% | $986,638 16% |
| 40% | |||
| $382,671 | $573,039 | $850,862 | |
| 32% | |||
| 2329.6 $8,562 $524,898 | 3140.7 82.6 $8,761 | 3638.8 95.8 $8,882 | 4002.7 105.3 |
| 61.3 | $850,541 | ||
| $9,015 | |||
| $724,103 | $949,629 | ||
| 68% 55% | 38% 55% | 17% 34% | 12% 31% |
| 355 | 3 | 250 | 700 |
| 10 | 6,000 | 6,000 | |
| 355 3.3 $32.0 | 13 15.9 $32.0 | 6,250 3.7 $32.0 | 6,700 4.4 $0.0 |
| $32,960 | $6,397 | $777,600 | $1,092,480 |
| 3% | 0% | 31% | 36% |
| $950,663 | $1,315,206 | $2,491,432 | $3,041,549 |
| 44% | 44% | 65% | 68% |
| $32,960 | $5,181 | $48,000 | $144,000 |
| 3% | 0% | 2% | 5% |
| $10,135 | $11,667 | $12,429 | $12,802 |
| $950,663 | $1,315,206 | $2,491,432 | $3,041,549 |
| 164% | 38% | 22% | |
| 89% |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Fi ure 3: Wiwynn mar in drivers
| Margin Drivers | Q126 | Q226 | Q326E | Q426E | Q127E | Q227E | Q327E | Q427E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Server Revenue | $161,539 | $175,674 | $189,991 | $196,899 | $199,399 | $211,007 | $222,278 | $217,858 |
| AI Server Revenue | $112,122 | $99,439 $126 | $159,206 $128 | $202,272 | $208,727 | $213,338 | $213,338 | $215,459 |
| GB 200/300 NVL72 Revenue VR NVL144/576 Revenue AMD MI455/Helios Revenue | $126 | $2,914 | $2,972 | $4,800 $1,216 $3,061 | $7,680 $60,800 $3,061 | $9,600 $182,400 $3,092 | $13,440 $243,200 | $17,280 $243,200 |
| Storage/Other Revenue | $2,721 | $352,297 | $408,249 | $3,122 | $3,154 | |||
| Total Revenue (NT$mn) | $276,508 | $278,153 | $479,667 | $619,436 | $695,378 | $696,951 | ||
| QoQ (%) YoY (%) | -5% 62% | 1% 26% | 27% 32% | 16% 40% | 17% 73% | 29% 123% | 12% 97% | 0% 71% |
| Gross Profit (NT$mn) | $20,881 7.5% | $25,763 | $31,028 | $35,478 | $38,420 | $44,305 | $47,666 | $47,517 |
| General Server Rack GM% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% |
| AI Server Rack GM% | 2.8% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| GB 200/300 L11 GM% VR NVL144/576 GM% AMD MI455/Helios GM% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% 3.7% | 2.7% 3.6% | 2.7% 3.6% | 2.7% 3.6% | 2.7% 3.6% | |
| Storage/Other GM% % | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% 6.8% |
| Wiwynn Blended GM | 7.6% -$3,423 | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% -$8,247 | 8.0% -$9,641 | 7.2% | 6.9% | -$14,078 |
| Opex (NT$mn) | -$5,545 | -$7,116 -2.0% | -2.0% | -2.0% | -$12,451 | -$14,022 | ||
| Opex/Sales % | -1.2% | -2.0% | -2.0% | -2.0% | -2.0% | |||
| Operating Profit (NT$mn) | $17,458 | $20,218 | $23,912 | $27,231 | $28,779 | $31,854 | $33,644 | $33,439 |
| Wiwynn OpM % | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Net Income | $14,114 | $14,969 | $18,052 | $20,934 | $22,405 | $24,204 | $25,768 | $25,190 |
| EPS (NT$) | $75.95 | $80.43 | $97.14 | $112.64 | $120.56 | $130.24 | $138.66 | $135.55 |
| 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|
| $524,898 | $724,103 | $850,541 | $949,629 |
| $382,671 $32,960 | $573,039 $381 $4,800 | $850,862 | $986,638 |
| $10,135 | $1,216 $11,667 | $48,000 $729,600 $12,429 | $144,000 $948,480 $12,802 |
| $950,663 | $1,315,206 | $2,491,432 | $3,041,549 |
| 164% | 38% | 89% | 22% |
| $78,454 | $113,150 | $177,908 | $208,628 |
| 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% |
| 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| 2.3% | 2.8% | ||
| 2.8% 3.7% | 2.7% 3.6% | 2.6% 3.6% | |
| 7.5% | 7.6% 8.6% | 6.5% 7.1% | 6.5% 6.9% |
| 8.3% -$14,537 | -$24,331 | -$50,193 | -$59,381 |
| -1.5% | -2.0% | ||
| -1.8% | -2.0% | ||
| $63,918 | $88,819 | $127,715 | $149,247 |
| 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% |
| $51,118 | $68,070 | $97,567 | $113,643 |
| $275.06 | $366.16 | $525.00 | $611.51 |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates Note: 2026E EPS shows reported number (pre-abnormal and goodwill)
Fi ure 4: Wiwynn annual and quarterly P&L
| Ticker Shares outstanding (mn) - Year | Ticker Shares outstanding (mn) - 2023 | 6669.TW 555 - 2024 | Current Price (NT$) Mkt cap (NT$ mn) - 2025 | Current Price (NT$) Mkt cap (NT$ mn) - 2026E | $2,135 $1,185,236 - 2027E 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$ mn) | $241,901 | $360,541 | $950,663 | $1,315,206 $2,491,432 | $3,041,549 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 49.0% | 163.7% | 38.3% | 89.4% 22.1% | |
| Gross profit (NT$mn) | $22,657 | $37,400 | $78,454 | $113,150 | $177,908 $208,628 |
| GM (%) | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% 6.9% |
| Operating profit (NT$mn) | $15,871 | $28,099 | $63,918 | $88,819 | $127,715 $149,247 |
| OPM (%) | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% 4.9% |
| Net profit (NT$ mn) | $12,044 | $22,776 | $51,118 | $67,949 | $96,659 $113,393 |
| EPS (NT$) | $68.88 | $127.29 | $275.06 | $226.39 | $174.12 $204.26 |
| EPS growth (%) | 85% | 116% | -18% | -23% 17% | |
| P/E (x) | 31.0 | 16.8 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 12.3 10.5 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 2% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 11.6% | 6.4% 4.9% |
| P/B (x) | 8.8 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 13.6 | 15.0 8.8 |
| ROE (%) | 29% | 26% | 41% | 117% | 122% 84% |
| Quarters | Q325 | Q425 | Q126 | Q226 | Q326E | Q426E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$ mn) | $266,824 | $292,440 | $276,508 | $278,153 | $352,297 | $408,249 |
| QoQ Growth (%) | 9.6% | -5.4% | 0.6% | 26.7% | 15.9% | |
| Gross profit (NT$mn) | $23,532 | $21,129 | $20,881 | $25,763 | $31,028 | $35,478 |
| GM (%) | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% |
| Operating profit (NT$mn) | $19,572 | $16,466 | $17,458 | $20,218 | $23,912 | $27,231 |
| OPM (%) | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% |
| Net profit (NT$ mn) | $15,411 | $13,792 | $14,114 | $14,969 | $18,052 | $20,813 |
| EPS (NT$) | $82.93 | $74.21 | $75.95 | $80.43 | $32.52 | $37.49 |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates Note: 2026E EPS shows reported number (pre-abnormal and goodwill)
Fi ure 5: Wiwynn sales driven by its top 3 customers
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Fi ure 7: Wiwynn cash flow summary
| Annual (NT$mn) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 21-25 Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $192,626 | $292,876 | $241,901 | $360,541 | $950,663 | $1,315,206 | $2,491,432 | $407,721 |
| Capital spending | $506 | $1,466 | $4,885 | $4,887 | $13,101 | $18,125 | $34,335 | $4,969 |
| Capex/revenue (%) | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Dep and amort | $548 | $762 | $1,002 | $2,005 | $2,690 | $4,370 | $6,489 | $1,401 |
| Depr/revenue (%) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Operating cash flow | -$14,212 | $30,678 | $23,060 | -$19,993 | -$624 | $31,048 | $65,029 | $3,782 |
| Free cash flow | -$14,719 | $29,212 | $18,175 | -$24,880 | -$13,726 | $12,923 | $30,694 | -$1,187 |
| FCF and Dividends | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 21-25 Avg |
| FCF / share (NT$) | -$84 | $167 | $104 | -$139 | -$74 | $35 | $55 | -$5 |
| FCF / EV Yield (%) | -1.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | -2.0% | -1.1% | 1.1% | 2.5% | -0.1% |
| FCF Yield (%) | -3.9% | 7.7% | 4.8% | -6.4% | -3.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | -0.2% |
| Dividend/share (NT$) | $32.00 | $25.00 | $50.00 | $41.15 | $74.00 | $247.25 | $135.83 | $44.43 |
| Payout rate (%) | 65% | 51% | 62% | 60% | 58% | 90% | 60% | 59% |
| Dividend amount (NT$) | $5,595 | $4,371 | $8,742 | $7,343 | $13,752 | $91,620 | $75,407 | $7,961 |
| Pre-Dividend close (NT$) | $773 | $1,045 | $730 | $1,945 | $2,440 | $2,180 | $2,180 | |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 4.1% | 2.4% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 11.3% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Fi ure 6: ASIC server has been an additional rowth driver beyond eneral server since H224
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Fi ure 8: Wiwynn inventory buildin ahead of 2H26 ramps
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Fi ure 10: Wiwynn at the lower-end of its lon -term P/E ran e
Source: Eikon, UBS estimates
Fi ure 12: UBS upside / downside / base case scenario
| 2025 | New UBS - 2026 | New UBS - 2027 | Prior UBS - 2026 | Prior UBS - 2027 | Upside Case - 2026 | Upside Case - 2027 | Downside Case - 2026 | Downside Case - 2027 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales YoY Growth Gross Profit | $950,663 38.3% 78,454 | $1,315,206 38.3% 113,150 | $2,491,432 89.4% 177,908 | $1,315,206 38.3% 113,150 | $2,491,432 89.4% 177,908 | $1,407,271 48.0% 122,056 | $2,644,406 87.9% 190,455 | $1,183,685 24.5% 100,651 | $1,744,002 47.3% 112,528 |
| GM% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.5% |
| Opex Op Profit | 14,537 63,918 | 24,331 88,819 | 50,193 127,715 | 24,331 88,819 | 50,193 127,715 | 25,864 96,192 | 52,966 137,489 | 23,358 77,294 | 44,170 68,359 |
| OpM% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 3.9% |
| Non-Op Pretax Tax Rate Tax Net EPS Shares | $2,135 66,052 -23% ($14,934) | -$2,346 86,473 -23% ($19,551) | -$4,210 -23% | -$2,102 86,717 -23% ($19,606) | -$2,873 124,843 -23% ($28,226) 97,707 | -$2,346 93,846 -23% ($21,218) 72,628 | -$4,210 133,279 -23% ($30,134) 103,145 | -$2,346 74,948 -23% ($16,945) 58,003 | -$4,210 64,149 -23% ($14,504) 49,645 |
| income EPS vs. base case Current Price P/E Implied Share | 51,118 $275.06 186 | 67,949 $226.39 371 $2,135 | 123,506 ($27,924) 96,659 $174.12 555 | 68,141 $366.23 186 | 14 $7,350 | 6.7% 15 $2,787 31% | -48.6% 13 $1,163 -46% | ||
| $524.98 | $195.99 | $185.80 | $156.53 | $89.43 | |||||
| 186 | 371 | 555 | 371 | 555 | |||||
| -13.4% | -30.9% | ||||||||
| $6,100 | |||||||||
| 14 | |||||||||
| Price Upside/Downside | $2,470 16% |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates Note: 2026E EPS shows reported number (pre-abnormal and goodwill)
Fi ure 9: Wiwynn turnin net cash ne ative on as hi her ASP next- en platform racks ramp
Source: Company data, UBS estimates
Fi ure 11: Wiwynn FWD EPS movin up faster than the share price
Source: Eikon, UBS estimates
Forecast returns
| Forecast price appreciation | 15. % |
|---|---|
| Forecast dividend yield | 0.6% |
| Forecast stock return | 16.3% |
| Market return assumption | 6.3% |
| Forecast excess return | 10.0% |
Company Description
Spun off from Wistron in March 2012, Wiwynn designs and manufactures cloud infrastructure equipment for hyperscaler data centres Prior to 2015, Wiwynn provided storage servers and traditional servers In 2015, Wiwynn began to shift its focus to manufacturing full rack server for hyperscale data centre clients Its key clients include US Facebook (50-60% of total revenue), Microsoft (40-50%) and Amazon Wiwynn is the second-largest white-box server manufacturer in terms of shipments It has production sites in Mexico, the Czech Republic and China
UBS EPS and Consensus EPS
The UBS EPS is an adjusted diluted EPS metric It is calculated using the UBS analyst's interpretation of earnings suitable for valuation purposes divided by the diluted number of shares This may differ to the way the consensus EPS metric has been calculated
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
Our price target is based on PE multiple methodology
Key downside risks for Wiwynn include: 1) a slowdown in the US CSP capex cycle; 2) margin compression due to intense competition; and 3) unfavourable FX movement
Quantitative Research Review
UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review' The views for this month can be found below Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo ubs com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs com A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above
Wiwynn
| Question | Response |
|---|---|
| 1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) | 5 |
| 4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view) | 5 |
| 5. What's driving the difference? | |
| 6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) | 5 |
| . What's driving the difference? | |
| 8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the next three months? | |
| 9. Is there an actual or approximate date for the catalyst? | |
| 10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approximate date? | |
| 11. What is the catalyst? |