Stock LLM Wiki

報告_UBS_南亞科2408_20260918

更新 2026-09-24
#來源/券商報告#公司/南亞科技

PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_南亞科2408_20260918_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-09-24）

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_UBS_南亞科2408_20260918_002.png 58.9KB 真資料圖 2408.TW 股價（黑線）與券商評等/目標價階梯圖（藍線＋Buy/Neutral/No Rating 色帶），01-Jun-23 至 08-Sep-26
報告_UBS_南亞科2408_20260918_001.png 56.7KB 真資料圖 Value drivers 情境表：18-Sep 收盤 NT$525、12個月目標價 NT$640（base），並列 NT$800（upside）/NT$380（downside）情境對應之 26E/27E DRAM ASP 與 OPM% 假設

原始內容

Nanya Technology

Pricing reset driving upside in 3Q

3Q26 tracking well ahead of consensus

Nanya Tech's July '26 revs were up 49 MoM and August 2 . Combined, July+August is equivalent to 80 of VA consensus 3Q revenue of NT$111bn. We understand this comes from both DRAM bit shipments and ASP upside. We now forecast QoQ bits up 5 vs -8 prior. More noticeably, we now forecast DRAM ASPs up 50 QoQ (vs. +32 prior). We believe this comes from some 6-month to 1-year contracts which reset last July, leading to well above average QoQ pricing momentum. Also, with niche DRAM exposure and less concentration around large clients, Nanya's DRAM ASPs are edging higher than its much larger peers as the upcycle continues. Looking into 4Q26, we forecast ASPs to increase 10 QoQ. With that, gross margin should improve in 3Q26 to 86.1 from 79.5 in 2Q, and remain at elevated levels throughout 2027. Reiterate Buy.

ot fulfilling customers' demand until the next fab ramps

Nanya sees 50-60 fulfillment rate for demand currently. Several large customers are not getting any allocation. Long term agreements cover >60 of bits already. Its new fab will start equipment moving-in in 1Q27, with initial output in 3Q27. Initial capacity will reach 30k wpm by 2028, with total theoretical capacity of 45-50k wpm. Nanya is also constructing an EUV litho building with equipment moving in in 1Q28. The goal is to secure 2 tools with space up to 5. Up to its 1d nm (which is 1a nm equivalent), Nanya does not require EUV litho.

Increasing forecasts

We increase 3Q26E revs/EPS estimates to NT$133bn/NT$26.44 (by 30 /40 ), 20 /37 above Visible Alpha consensus of NT$110bn/NT$19.26. We also increase 2026E/2027E/2028E EPS forecasts by 23 /12 /18 respectively on higher DRAM ASP assumptions (9 /9 /4 higher per Gb vs prior).

Valuation: PT to T$640 from T$555; maintain Buy

We value Nanya Tech shares at 3.16x NTM P/BV (was 3.01x) based on our LT ROE estimate of 26.5 (was 25.5 ) and CoE of 8.4 (was 8.5 ).

Equities

Taiwan

Semiconductors

12-month rating Buy
12m price target T$640.00
Prior : T$555.00
Price (18 Sep 2026) T$525.00

RIC: 2408.TWBBG: 2408 TT

Trading data and key metrics

52-wk range NT$543.00-71.00
Market cap. NT$1,811b/US$57.0b
Shares o/s 3,450m (ORD)
Free float 37
Avg. daily volume ('000) 86,127
Avg. daily value (m) NT$40,093.4
Common s/h equity (12/26E) NT$503b
P/BV (12/26E) 3.6x
et debt to EBITDA (12/26E) NM
EPS (UBS, From diluted) To (TWD) % ch Cons.
12/26E 62.35 76.97 23 62.24
12/27E 103.66 116.41 12 94.09
12/28E 106.54 125.68 18 86.23

icolas Gaudois

Analyst

nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com

+65-6495 5148

Jimmy Yoon

Analyst

jimmy.yoon@ubs.com +65-6495 4617

Luke Yoo

Analyst

luke.yoo@ubs.com +82-2-3702 8132

Highlights ( T$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Revenues 29,892 34,132 66,587 402,823 612,781 702,216 376,239 286,085
EBIT (UBS) (14,460) (10,555) 5,242 311,653 471,498 502,443 137,172 14,462
et earnings (UBS) (7,440) (5,083) 6,612 262,194 401,651 433,609 141,974 40,961
EPS (UBS, diluted) ( T$) (2.40) (1.64) 2.13 76.97 116.41 125.68 41.15 11.87
DPS (net) ( T$) 0.00 0.00 1.50 30.79 29.10 31.42 10.29 2.97
et (debt) / cash 47,631 36,638 49,018 320,864 442,379 660,751 726,245 648,883
Profitability/valuation 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
EBIT (UBS) margin % (48.4) (30.9) 7.9 77.4 76.9 71.6 36.5 5.1
ROIC (EBIT) % (13.4) (8.9) 4.4 213.9 179.5 123.4 30.6 3.1
EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x >100 23.9 8.2 4.6 2.7 2.0 5.2 10.2
P/E (UBS, diluted) x (27.9) (34.4) 32.5 6.8 4.5 4.2 12.8 44.2
Equity FCF (UBS) yield % (9.3) (8.1) 2.5 10.7 12.6 17.6 9.6 (2.3)
Dividend yield (net) % 0.0 0.0 2.2 5.9 5.5 6.0 2.0 0.6

Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 525.00 on 18-Sep-2026 15:27:58 CST

Thesis Map UBS Research THESIS MAP a guide to our thinking and what´s where in this report

Pivotal Questions

UBS VIEW

EVIDENCE

WHAT´S PRICED IN?

Company Description

Q: Will DRAM undersupply continue into 2028?

Yes in our view. Agentic AI is boosting further memory demand on multiple fronts beyond HBM, including DDR5/LPDDR5 for conventional servers and CPU head nodes in AI servers. We now forecast an acceleration of memory demand growth into 2027 with DRAM bit end-consumption growing 40 YoY vs 21 in 2026. As almost all of the incremental wafer capacity addition for DRAM is going to HBM, supply is not catching up with demand. The main risk remains affordability by customers as memory industry revenues are expected to reach US$1.64tn in 2027E.

Q: Can TC grow as a niche DRAM player?

Yes. 2026 and 2027 are likely to be years of more constrained growth. Subsequently though, we think its process tech migration to 1c nm and 1d nm will likely lead to a 30 increase in bits per wafer for each process tech migration (at comparable yields). NTC is also slightly pulling in its new fab ramp, with equipment expected to move in 1Q27. We also see a tail of DDR3 and DDR4 products NTC can address for a while.

Nanya Tech shares trade at 2.59x NTM P/BV, above +1SD of its 10-year average. That said, we believe the strength of the unfolding DRAM cycle as well as the tail of legacy products that Nanya can address as a niche player should continue to provide support for the stock.

Our industry checks suggest HBM demand continues to result in capacity allocation away from DDR, which may moderate possible cyclical corrections, supporting upside to DDR contract pricing for longer.

At 2.59x NTM P/BV, we believe Nanya Tech shares are discounting a LT average ROE of 21.7 vs our LT estimate of 26.5 .

Value drivers DRAM ASP OPM
'26E/'27E '26E/'27E
NT$800 upside +390 /+65 79 /80
NT$640 base NT$380 downside +370 /+51 +320 /+40 77 /77 72 /73

Source: UBS estimates

Nanya Tech is a specialty DRAM supplier in Taiwan focusing on legacy DDR products.

UBS Forecasts

Figure 1: anya Tech - UBSe vs Consensus

(NT$m) 3Q26E - UBSe 3Q26E - Cons 3Q26E - Delta 4Q26E - UBSe 4Q26E - Cons 4Q26E - Delta 2026E - UBSe 2026E - Cons 2026E - Delta 2027E - UBSe 2027E - Cons 2027E - Delta 2028E - UBSe 2028E - Cons 2028E - Delta
Sales 132,773 110,457 20% 138,414 118,075 17% 402,823 360,168 12% 612,781 577,846 6% 702,216 668,277 5%
Operating Profit 108,551 85,357 27% 112,174 89,878 25% 311,653 266,474 17% 471,498 422,580 12% 502,443 442,158 14%
% OP margin 81.8% 77.3% 448bps 81.0% 76.1% 492bps 77.4% 74.0% 338bps 76.9% 73.1% 381bps 71.6% 66.2% 539bps
EPS (NT$) 26.44 19.26 37% 27.45 20.09 37% 76.97 64.53 19% 116.41 100.28 16% 125.68 106.13 18%

Source: Visible Alpha, UBS estimates

Figure 2: anya Tech - ew vs Old

(NT$m) 3Q26E - New 3Q26E - Old 3Q26E - Delta 4Q26E - New 4Q26E - Old 4Q26E - Delta 2026E - New 2026E - Old 2026E - Delta 2027E - New 2027E - Old 2027E - Delta 2028E - New 2028E - Old 2028E - Delta
Sales 132,773 102,486 30% 138,414 110,838 25% 402,823 344,960 17% 612,781 570,140 7% 702,216 671,311 5%
Operating Profit 108,551 76,558 42% 112,174 82,831 35% 311,653 250,317 25% 471,498 420,399 12% 502,443 426,491 18%
% OP margin 81.8% 74.7% 706bps 81.0% 74.7% 631bps 77.4% 72.6% 480bps 76.9% 73.7% 321bps 71.6% 63.5% 802bps
EPS 26.44 18.84 40% 27.45 20.45 34% 76.97 62.35 23% 116.41 103.66 12% 125.68 106.54 18%

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 3: anya Tech - DRAM forecasts

2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
DRAM revenues (NT$m) 66,587 49,087 82,549 132,773 138,414 402,823 139,476 146,589 156,766 169,950 612,781 702,216 376,239 286,085
% QoQ 63% 68% 61% 4% 1% 5% 7% 8%
% YoY 95% 583% 684% 607% 360% 505% 184% 78% 18% 23% 52% 15% -46% -24%
DRAM revenues (US$m) 2,158 1,579 2,647 4,144 4,352 12,722 4,385 4,609 4,929 5,343 19,266 22,078 11,829 8,995
% QoQ 62% 68% 57% 5% 1% 5% 7% 8%
% YoY 97% 623% 677% 563% 347% 490% 178% 74% 19% 23% 51% 15% -46% -24%
DRAM unit shipment (1Gb eq) 4,643 1,441 1,438 1,504 1,442 5,825 1,371 1,393 1,465 1,600 5,829 8,169 10,284 12,448
% QoQ -6% 0% 5% -4% -5% 2% 5% 9%
% YoY 54% 123% 32% 10% -6% 25% -5% -3% -3% 11% 0% 40% 26% 21%
DRAM ASP (US$ 1Gb eq) 0.46 1.10 1.84 2.75 3.02 2.18 3.20 3.31 3.36 3.34 3.31 2.70 1.15 0.72
% QoQ 73% 68% 50% 10% 6% 3% 2% -1%
% YoY 28% 224% 487% 505% 376% 370% 192% 80% 22% 11% 51% -18% -57% -37%
Operating Profit (NT$m) 5,242 30,102 60,826 108,551 112,174 311,653 110,882 115,324 120,109 125,183 471,498 502,443 137,172 14,462
% OP margin 7.9% 61.3% 73.7% 81.8% 81.0% 77.4% 79.5% 78.7% 76.6% 73.7% 76.9% 71.6% 36.5% 5.1%

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 4: anya Tech - Income Statement forecasts

(NT$m) 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Revenues 66,587 49,087 82,549 132,773 138,414 402,823 139,476 146,589 156,766 169,950 612,781 702,216 376,239 286,085
% QoQ % YoY 95% 63% 583% 68% 684% 61% 607% 4% 360% 505% 1% 184% 5% 78% 7% 18% 8% 23% 52% 15% -46% -24%
COGS 51,600 15,761 16,930 18,455 20,038 71,184 21,755 23,473 27,910 35,066 108,204 157,153 188,813 213,736
Gross Profit 14,986 33,325 65,619 114,318 118,376 331,639 117,721 123,116 128,856 134,884 504,577 545,063 187,426 72,349
% GP margin 22.5% 67.9% 79.5% 86.1% 85.5% 82.3% 84.4% 84.0% 82.2% 79.4% 82.3% 77.6% 49.8% 25.3%
Operating Expenses 9,745 3,224 4,793 5,767 6,202 19,986 6,838 7,792 8,747 9,701 33,078 42,620 50,253 57,887
R&D 7,043 2,118 3,230 3,730 3,930 13,008 4,330 4,830 5,330 5,830 20,320 27,920 35,520 39,320
SG&A 2,702 1,105 1,563 2,037 2,272 6,978 2,508 2,962 3,417 3,871 12,758 14,700 14,733 18,567
Opex as % of revenues 14.6% 6.6% 5.8% 4.3% 4.5% 5.0% 4.9% 5.3% 5.6% 5.7% 5.4% 6.1% 13.4% 20.2%
Operating Profit 5,242 30,102 60,826 108,551 112,174 311,653 110,882 115,324 120,109 125,183 471,498 502,443 137,172 14,462
% OP margin 7.9% 61.3% 73.7% 81.8% 81.0% 77.4% 79.5% 78.7% 76.6% 73.7% 76.9% 71.6% 36.5% 5.1%
Non-Operating Income 2,641 1,616 1,504 2,694 3,343 9,158 4,249 4,874 4,230 4,966 18,320 26,348 35,968 35,490
Investment Income 417 239 239 239 239 955 239 239 239 239 955 955 955 955
Interest Income 1,907 527 1,029 2,456 3,105 7,116 4,011 4,635 3,991 4,728 17,365 25,394 35,013 34,535
Others 316 851 237 0 0 1,087 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Earnings Before Tax 7,882 31,718 62,330 111,245 115,517 320,811 115,132 120,198 124,340 130,149 489,818 528,791 173,140 49,952
Tax Expenses 1,269 5,660 12,138 20,024 20,793 58,615 20,724 21,636 22,381 23,427 88,167 95,182 31,165 8,991
% Tax rate 16.1% 17.8% 19.5% 18.0% 18.0% 18.3% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%
Earnings After Tax 6,613 26,058 50,192 91,221 94,724 262,196 94,408 98,562 101,958 106,722 401,651 433,609 141,974 40,961
Minority Interest (1) (1) 0 0 0 (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Profit After MI 6,614 26,059 50,192 91,221 94,724 262,197 94,408 98,562 101,958 106,722 401,651 433,609 141,974 40,961
EPS 2.13 8.41 14.66 26.44 27.45 76.97 27.36 28.57 29.55 30.93 116.41 125.68 41.15 11.87

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 5: anya Tech - Balance Sheet forecasts

(Won bn) 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Cash and Cash Equivalents 58,074 86,281 200,451 252,380 324,861 324,861 374,803 323,314 382,218 446,375 446,375 664,747 730,242 652,880
Accounts Receivable 16,558 25,247 45,232 65,477 68,259 68,259 68,783 72,291 77,309 83,811 83,811 88,483 34,482 51,126
Inventories 27,288 24,331 11,132 12,135 13,176 13,176 14,305 15,434 18,352 23,057 23,057 27,104 34,131 38,146
Other Current Assets 6,621 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748
Total Current Assets 108,541 141,607 262,563 335,740 412,043 412,043 463,638 416,787 483,627 558,991 558,991 786,082 804,603 747,901
Tangible Assets 85,031 87,349 88,425 107,186 125,972 125,972 168,481 207,841 244,052 277,425 277,425 384,473 402,852 466,387
Intangible Assets 531 500 511 700 890 890 1,319 1,717 2,083 2,420 2,420 3,501 3,687 4,329
Investments 5,904 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111
Other Non-Current Assets 8,446 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401
Total Non-Current Assets 99,912 99,361 100,447 119,398 138,374 138,374 181,312 221,070 257,646 291,357 291,357 399,486 418,051 482,228
Total Assets 208,453 240,968 363,011 455,138 550,417 550,417 644,950 637,856 741,273 850,348 850,348 1,185,568 1,222,654 1,230,128
Account Payables 6,481 7,298 5,566 6,472 7,027 7,027 7,152 7,717 9,176 11,529 11,529 13,552 17,065 19,073
ST Debts 5,060 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Current Liabilities 7,480 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910
Current Liabilities 19,020 25,207 23,476 24,381 24,936 24,936 25,062 25,627 27,085 29,438 29,438 31,461 34,975 36,983
LT Liabilities 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996
Other Non-Current Liabilities 35 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83
Non-Current Liabilities 18,894 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724
Total Liabilities 37,914 47,931 46,199 47,105 47,660 47,660 47,786 48,350 49,809 52,162 52,162 54,185 57,699 59,706
Total Shareholders' Equity 170,538 193,037 316,811 408,033 502,757 502,757 597,165 589,506 691,464 798,187 798,187 1,131,383 1,164,955 1,170,422

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 6: anya Tech - Cash Flow Statement forecasts

(Won bn) 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Net Profit 6,614 26,059 50,192 91,221 94,724 262,197 94,408 98,562 101,958 106,722 401,651 433,609 141,974 40,961
Depreciation and Amortization 14,281 2,897 2,960 3,517 3,491 12,865 4,771 7,952 11,132 13,998 37,853 58,853 76,853 94,853
Changes in Assets and Liabilities (3,610) (6,911) (8,518) (20,342) (3,267) (39,038) (1,528) (4,073) (6,477) (8,854) (20,932) (6,696) 50,487 (18,652)
Changes in A/R (12,259) (8,414) (19,985) (20,245) (2,781) (51,425) (524) (3,508) (5,019) (6,502) (15,552) (4,672) 54,001 (16,644)
Changes in Inventories 8,031 2,957 13,199 (1,003) (1,041) 14,112 (1,129) (1,129) (2,917) (4,706) (9,882) (4,047) (7,027) (4,015)
Changes in A/P 618 (1,454) (1,732) 906 555 (1,725) 125 565 1,459 2,353 4,502 2,023 3,513 2,008
Others 1,284 9,503 0 0 0 9,503 0 0 0 0 (0) (0) 0 0
Cash Flow from Operations 18,568 31,549 44,634 74,396 94,948 245,527 97,651 102,441 106,613 111,866 418,572 485,766 269,315 117,162
Capital Expenditures (13,245) (2,851) (4,046) (22,468) (22,468) (51,832) (47,709) (47,709) (47,709) (47,709) (190,836) (166,982) (95,418) (159,030)
Others (865) 37 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
NOCF 5,324 28,698 40,588 51,929 72,481 193,695 49,942 54,732 58,904 64,157 227,736 318,785 173,897 (41,868)
Cash Flow from Investments (14,110) (2,814) (4,046) (22,468) (22,468) (51,795) (47,709) (47,709) (47,709) (47,709)(190,836)(166,982) (95,418)(159,030)
Dividend 0 0 (5,135) 0 0 (5,135) 0 (106,221) 0 0 (106,221) (100,413) (108,402) (35,494)
Other (6,317) (1,547) 78,717 0 0 77,170 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Flow from Financing (6,317) (1,547) 73,582 0 0 72,035 0 (106,221) 0 0 (106,221) (100,413) (108,402) (35,494)
Cash Flow from Others (1,970) 1,019 0 0 0 1,019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Cash flow (3,829) 28,207 114,170 51,929 72,481 266,786 49,942 (51,489) 58,904 64,157 121,515 218,372 65,495 (77,362)

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 7: anya Tech - UBS valuation

UBS price target (NT$) 640.00
Current stock price (NT$) 525.00
Number of shares (mil) 3,450
Market cap (NT$m) 1,811,354
Net debt (NT$m) (196,455)
EV (NT$m) 1,614,899
2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Current valuation (x)
EV/Revenues 24.25 4.01 2.64 2.30 4.29 5.64
P/Book 9.54 3.56 2.27 1.60 1.55 1.55
P/E 245.97 6.82 4.51 4.18 12.76 44.22
EV/EBITDA 82.72 4.98 3.17 2.88 7.55 14.77
Target price valuation (x)
EV/Revenues 30.21 4.99 3.28 2.86 5.35 7.03
P/Book 11.63 4.34 2.77 1.95 1.90 1.89
P/E 299.85 8.32 5.50 5.09 15.55 5.09
EV/EBITDA 103.04 6.20 3.95 3.58 9.40 18.40
Other
EPS 2.13 76.97 116.41 125.68 41.15 11.87
% ROE 3.9% 77.9% 61.7% 44.9% 12.4% 3.5%
Book value per share (NT$) 55.04 147.58 231.35 327.92 337.65 339.23
Cash per share (NT$) 18.74 95.36 129.38 192.67 211.65 189.23
Free cash flow per share (NT$) 1.44 56.87 66.01 92.40 50.40 (12.14)
% Free cash flow yield 0.3% 10.8% 12.6% 17.6% 9.6% -2.3%

Source: Company data, UBS estimates. Priced as of September 18 th , 2026.

anya Technology (2408.TW)

Income Statement ( T$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E %ch 12/27E %ch 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Revenues 29,892 34,132 66,587 402,823 NM 612,781 52.1 702,216 376,239 286,085
Gross profit (4,483) (421) 14,986 331,639 NM 504,577 52.1 545,063 187,426 72,349
EBITDA (UBS) 865 5,589 19,523 324,518 NM 509,351 57.0 561,296 214,025 109,315
Depreciation & amortisation (15,326) (16,144) (14,281) (12,865) 9.9 (37,853) -194.2 (58,853) (76,853) (94,853)
EBIT (UBS) (14,460) (10,555) 5,242 311,653 NM 471,498 51.3 502,443 137,172 14,462
Associates & investment income 193 101 417 955 128.7 955 0.0 955 955 955
Other non-operating income 549 923 316 1,087 243.6 0 - 0 0 0
Net interest 3,014 2,974 1,907 7,116 273.2 17,365 144.0 25,394 35,013 34,535
Exceptionals (incl goodwill) 0 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 0 0
Pre-tax profit (10,705) (6,557) 7,882 320,811 NM 489,818 52.7 528,791 173,140 49,952
Tax 3,265 1,474 (1,269) (58,615) NM (88,167) -50.4 (95,182) (31,165) (8,991)
Profit after tax (7,440) (5,083) 6,613 262,196 NM 401,651 53.2 433,609 141,974 40,961
Preference dividends 0 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 0 0
Minorities 0 0 (1) (1) -21.4 - 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 0 0
Extraordinary items 0 0 0 0 401,651 - 433,609 141,974 40,961
et earnings (local GAAP) et earnings (UBS) (7,440) (7,440) (5,083) (5,083) 6,612 6,612 262,194 NM 401,651 53.2 53.2 433,609 141,974 40,961
0.0 0.0 262,194 NM 18.0 18.0
Tax rate ( ) 16.1 18.3 13.5 -1.5 18.0 18.0
Per Share ( T$) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E %ch 12/27E %ch 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
EPS (UBS, diluted) (2.40) (1.64) 2.13 76.97 NM 116.41 51.3 125.68 41.15 11.87
EPS (local GAAP, diluted) (2.40) (1.64) 2.13 76.97 NM 116.41 51.3 125.68 41.15 11.87
EPS (UBS, basic) (2.40) (1.64) 2.13 76.97 NM 116.41 51.3 125.68 41.15 11.87
DPS (net) (NT$) 0.00 0.00 1.50 30.79 NM 29.10 -5.5 31.42 10.29 2.97
Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) 1 2.55 3.57 6.74 80.74 NM 127.39 57.8 142.73 63.42 39.36
Book value per share 53.98 53.37 55.04 147.58 168.2 231.35 56.8 327.92 337.65 339.23
Average shares (diluted) 3,098 3,099 3,099 3,407 9.9 3,450 1.3 3,450 3,450 3,450
Balance Sheet ( T$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E %ch 12/27E %ch 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Cash and equivalents 58,812 61,903 58,074 50,467 324,861 87,182 NM 446,375 112,616 37.4 29.2 664,747 121,335 730,242 74,361 652,880 95,021
Other current assets Total current assets 37,698 96,510 46,043 107,946 108,541 412,043 72.8 558,991 35.7 786,082 804,603 747,901
Net tangible fixed assets 81,838 84,327 85,031 125,972 279.6 48.1 277,425 120.2 384,473 402,852 466,387
Net intangible fixed assets 927 688 531 890 67.5 2,420 171.9 3,501 3,687 4,329
Investments / other assets 13,076 13,745 14,349 11,512 -19.8 11,512 0.0 11,512 11,512 11,512
Total assets 192,351 206,706 850,348 54.5 1,185,568 1,222,654 1,230,128
208,453 550,417 164.0
Trade payables & other ST liabilities 8,937 11,510 13,960 24,936 78.6 29,438 18.1 31,461 34,975 36,983
Short term debt Total current liabilities 11,181 20,118 21,270 5,060 19,020 0 24,936 - 31.1 0 29,438 - 18.1 0 31,461 0 34,975 0 36,983
Long term debt 0 32,780 3,995 3,996 3,996 0.0 3,996 0.0 3,996 3,996 3,996
Other long term liabilities 5,309 4,878 14,898 18,727 25.7 18,727 0.0 18,727 18,727 18,727
Preferred shares 0 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 0 0
Total liabilities (incl pref shares) 25,427 41,653 37,914 47,660 25.7 52,162 9.4 54,185 57,699 59,706
Common s/h equity 166,924 165,053 170,538 502,757 194.8 798,187 58.8 1,131,383 0 1,164,955 1,170,422
Minority interests 0 192,351 0 206,706 0 208,453 0 550,417 - 164.0 0 850,348 - 54.5 1,185,568 0 1,222,654 0 1,230,128
Total liabilities & equity %ch 12/27E %ch 12/30E
Cash Flow ( T$m) Net income (before pref divs) 12/23 (7,440) 12/24 (5,083) 12/25 12/26E 262,194 NM 401,651 53.2 12/28E 433,609 12/29E 141,974 40,961
Depreciation & amortisation 15,326 16,144 6,612 14,281 12,865 -9.9 37,853 194.2 58,853 76,853 94,853
Net change in working capital (5,679) (6,705) (3,610) (39,038) NM (20,932) 46.4 (6,696) 50,487 0 (18,652)
Other operating (8,303) (2,404) 1,284 9,503 NM 0 - 0 0
Operating cash flow (6,095) 1,952 18,566 245,525 NM 418,572 70.5 485,766 269,315 117,162
Tangible capital expenditure (13,112) (15,981) (13,112) (51,314) -291.3 (188,928) -268.2 (165,312) (94,464) (157,440)
Intangible capital expenditure (132) (161) (132) (518) -291.3 (1,908) -268.2 - (1,670) (954) (1,590)
Net (acquisitions) & disposals 0 0 0 - 0 0 0
Other investing 459 (45) 0 37 0 - 0 0 0
Investing cash (12,786) (16,188) (865) (14,110) (51,795) - -267.1 (190,836) -268.4 0 (95,418) (159,030)
flow Equity dividends paid (6,600) 0 0 0 (5,135) - (106,221) NM - (166,982) (100,413) (108,402) (35,494)
0 0 0 0 0 0
Share issues / (buybacks) Other financing 0 - - - 0
(596) 11,392 4,051 (97) 78,448 (1,278) 0 0 0 0
Change in debt & pref shares Financing cash flow 4,196 9,656 13,707 (6,221) (6,317) 72,035 79.5 - 0 (106,221) - 0 (100,413) 0 (108,402) (35,494)
Cash flow inc/(dec) in cash (14,685) (529) - 121,515 - -54.3 218,372 65,495 (77,362)
FX / non cash items (96) 3,619 (1,860) (1,968) 265,765 1,021 - 0 -100.0 0 0 0
Balance sheet inc/(dec) in cash 3,091 (3,829) 266,786 - 121,515 218,372 65,495 (77,362)
(14,781) -54.5

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts. 1 Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) is calculated using UBS net income adding back depreciation and amortization.

anya Technology (2408.TW)

Valuation (x) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
P/E (local GAAP, diluted) NM NM 32.5 6.8 4.5 4.2 12.8 44.2
P/E (UBS, diluted) (27.9) (34.4) 32.5 6.8 4.5 4.2 12.8 44.2
P/CEPS 26.3 15.8 10.3 6.5 4.1 3.7 8.3 13.3
Equity FCF (UBS) yield (9.3) (8.1) 2.5 10.7 12.6 17.6 9.6 (2.3)
Dividend yield (net) 0.0 0.0 2.2 5.9 5.5 6.0 2.0 0.6
P/BV 1.2 1.1 1.3 3.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 1.5
EV/revenues (core) 5.2 3.9 2.4 3.7 2.2 1.6 3.0 3.9
EV/EBITDA (UBS core) >100 23.9 8.2 4.6 2.7 2.0 5.2 10.2
EV/EBIT (core) NM NM 30.4 4.8 2.9 2.3 8.1 77.3
EV/OpFCF (core) NM NM 24.9 5.4 4.3 2.9 9.3 NM
EV/op. invested capital 1.4 1.1 1.3 10.2 5.2 2.8 2.5 2.4
Enterprise value ( T$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Market cap. 207,317 174,677 214,287 1,811,354 1,811,354 1,811,354 1,811,354 1,811,354
Net debt (cash) (47,631) (36,638) (49,018) (320,864) (442,379) (660,751) (693,498) (687,564)
Buy out of minorities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pension provisions/other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total enterprise value 159,686 138,039 165,268 1,490,490 1,368,975 1,150,603 1,117,856 1,123,790
Non core assets (5,120) (4,645) (5,904) (6,111) (6,111) (6,111) (6,111) (6,111)
Core enterprise value 154,566 133,394 159,365 1,484,379 1,362,864 1,144,493 1,111,745 1,117,679
Growth (%) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Revenue (47.5) 14.2 95.1 NM 52.1 14.6 (46.4) (24.0)
EBITDA (UBS) (96.7) NM NM NM 57.0 10.2 (61.9) (48.9)
EBIT (UBS) - 27.0 - NM 51.3 6.6 (72.7) (89.5)
EPS (UBS, diluted) - 31.7 - NM 51.3 8.0 (67.3) (71.1)
Net DPS - - - NM (5.5) 8.0 (67.3) (71.1)
Margins & Profitability (%) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Gross profit margin NM NM 22.5 NM NM NM 49.8 25.3
EBITDA margin 2.9 16.4 29.3 NM NM NM 56.9 38.2
EBIT (UBS) margin (48.4) (30.9) 7.9 77.4 76.9 71.6 36.5 5.1
Net earnings (UBS) margin NM NM 9.9 65.1 65.5 61.7 37.7 14.3
ROIC (EBIT) NM NM 4.4 NM NM NM 30.6 3.1
ROIC post tax NM NM 3.7 NM NM NM 25.1 2.5
ROE (UBS) (4.3) (3.1) 3.9 77.9 61.7 44.9 12.4 3.5
Capital structure & Coverage (x) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Net debt / EBITDA (55.0) (6.6) (2.5) (1.0) (0.9) (1.2) (3.4) (5.9)
Net debt / total equity (28.5) (22.2) (28.7) (63.8) (55.4) (58.4) (62.3) (55.4)
Net debt / (net debt + total equity) (39.9) (28.5) (40.3) NM NM NM NM NM
Net debt/EV (38.0) (30.5) (25.9) (12.4) (27.9) (47.9) (62.0) (61.2)
Capex / depreciation 86.4 100.0 92.7 NM NM NM 124.2 167.7
Capex / revenue NM NM 19.7 12.7 NM 23.5 25.1 NM
EBIT / net interest - - - - - - - -
Dividend cover (UBS) - - 1.4 2.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Div. payout ratio (UBS) - - 70.3 40.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Revenues by division ( T$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Others 29,892 34,132 66,587 402,823 612,781 702,216 376,239 286,085
Total 29,892 34,132 66,587 402,823 612,781 702,216 376,239 286,085
EBIT (UBS) by division ( T$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Others (14,460) (10,555) 5,242 311,653 471,498 502,443 137,172 14,462
(14,460) 5,242 311,653
Total (10,555) 471,498 502,443 137,172 14,462

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 21.9%
Forecast dividend yield 5.9%
Forecast stock return 27.8%
Market return assumption 6.3%
Forecast excess return 21.5%

Company Description

Nanya Tech is a pure DRAM company based in Taiwan, focusing on legacy products for consumers, broad-based applications and is now growing in servers.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Nanya Tech is a pure-play DRAM manufacturer based in Taiwan mainly focused on legacy DDR products for customers across various end applications. We think downside risks to our thesis could include a potential slowdown in end demand and hence the conventional memory cycle as well as Nanya's legacy-centric product portfolio. We value Nanya Tech shares using a target NTM P/BV multiple based on long-term average ROE and cost of equity.

Quantitative Research Review

UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.

anya Technology

Question Response
1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view 4
2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view 3
3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view 4
4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view 4
5. What's driving the difference?
6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view 3
7. What's driving the difference?
8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the next three months? Positive Catalyst
9. Is there an actual or approximate date for the catalyst? October 12, 2026
10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approximate date? Approximate
11. What is the catalyst? Further upside to DDR pricing

被誰引用

相關公司
南亞科技