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報告_UBS_南亞科2408_20260710

更新 2026-07-13
#來源/券商報告#公司/南亞科技

PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_南亞科2408_20260710_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-13）

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_UBS_南亞科2408_20260710_001.png 67KB 真資料圖 南亞科股價走勢圖（灰線，2023-2026）+ 12 個月目標價情境帶（Upside NT$660／Base NT$555／Downside NT$300）與對應 DRAM ASP、OPM 假設表
報告_UBS_南亞科2408_20260710_002.png 98KB 真資料圖 南亞科股價（黑線）vs 歷次目標價沿革（藍色階梯線，2023-04至2026），下方附 Buy／Neutral／No Rating 評等時期色塊

原始內容

Nanya Technology

Solid 2Q26; further upside for 2H26

2Q26 results above consensus, again

Nanya Tech (NTC) reported strong 2Q26 revenue of NT$82.5bn (+68% QoQ, +684% YoY) and EPS of NT$14.66, in line with UBSe of NT$80.8bn/NT$14.32 and 15%/6% above pre-results Visible Alpha consensus of NT$71.8bn/NT$13.81. Given FX was flat QoQ, growth was driven almost entirely ASPs, which we believe increased by 68% QoQ (UBSe: +67%); while bit shipment was flat QoQ (UBSe: -3%) from a relatively high base in 1Q26. Profitability improved further QoQ, with gross/operating margins coming in at 80%/74% (from 68%/61% in 1Q26; UBSe was 79%/73%) even after accounting for sequentially higher employee bonuses and R&D expenses.

Pricing momentum continues; upside to capex

NTC management struck a positive tone on the 2H26 outlook, guiding for operational results to improve sequentially into 3Q26, and possibly again into 4Q26, amid supply tightness across all products. With the company's full-year 2026 bit growth guidance of "up mid-teens %" YoY implying bit shipments will be down YoY in 2H26 (we now estimate -8% QoQ in both 3Q26E and 4Q26E), we believe strong pricing momentum will likely remain the primary growth driver and now, in line with or latest industry checks (link), forecast NTC's ASPs to increase by 32% QoQ in 3Q26. In an environment where the ability of the top-three DRAM makers to allocate wafers to DDR4 remains limited, NTC indicated negotiations with customers for longer contracts - that extend beyond a quarter - are ongoing, beyond those announced with the private placement last quarter. Amid such unprecedented undersupply, NTC's efforts to bring the new fab online are progressing well, with equipment move in set to begin in 1Q27. With initial output by mid 2027, NTC expects the new fab to reach 30k wafer starts per month by 2028. NTC now expects to spend a total of US$16bn in capex over the next several years on this new fab which, upon completion, is expected to add 45k wpm of incremental capacity.

Changes to forecasts

Reflecting 2Q26 results as well as our new bit shipment and ASP assumptions, we raise our 2026E/2027E revenue forecasts by 12%/10% to NT$345bn/NT$570bn (from NT $308bn/NT$518bn) and EPS forecasts by 18%/17% to NT$62.35/NT$103.66 (from NT $52.84/NT$88.63 previously). Our EPS forecasts now sit 18%/43% above pre-results Visible Alpha consensus.

Valuation: PT to NT$555 from NT$495; maintain Buy

Our price target rises to reflect our revised estimates. We value Nanya Tech shares at 3.01x NTM P/BV based on our LT ROE estimate of 25.5% and CoE of 8.5%.

Highlights (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Revenues 29,892 34,132 66,587 344,960 570,140 671,311 376,715 276,208
EBIT (UBS) (14,460) (10,555) 5,242 250,317 420,399 426,491 141,475 80,136
Net earnings (UBS) (7,440) (5,083) 6,612 211,777 357,650 367,576 139,319 88,905
EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) (2.40) (1.64) 2.13 62.35 103.66 106.54 40.38 25.77
DPS (net) (NT$) 0.00 0.00 1.50 24.94 25.92 26.63 10.10 6.44
Net (debt) / cash 47,631 36,638 49,018 283,382 366,285 520,862 557,683 553,944
Profitability/valuation 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
EBIT (UBS) margin% (48.4) (30.9) 7.9 72.6 73.7 63.5 37.6 29.0
ROIC (EBIT)% (13.4) (8.9) 4.4 179.8 163.5 103.2 29.4 15.6
EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x >100 23.9 8.2 4.0 2.1 1.7 3.7 4.5
P/E (UBS, diluted) x (27.9) (34.4) 32.5 7.0 4.2 4.1 10.8 16.9
Equity FCF (UBS) yield% (9.3) (8.1) 2.5 11.6 12.5 18.1 9.5 2.3
Dividend yield (net)% 0.0 0.0 2.2 5.7 6.0 6.1 2.3 1.5

Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 435.50 on 09-Jul-2026

Equities Equities Equities Equities
Taiwan Semiconductors Taiwan Semiconductors Taiwan Semiconductors Taiwan Semiconductors
12-month rating 12-month rating 12-month rating Buy
12m price target 12m price target 12m price target NT$555.00 Prior : NT$495.00
Price (09 Jul 2026) Price (09 Jul 2026) Price (09 Jul 2026) NT$435.50
RIC: 2408.TW BBG: 2408 TT RIC: 2408.TW BBG: 2408 TT RIC: 2408.TW BBG: 2408 TT RIC: 2408.TW BBG: 2408 TT
Trading data and key metrics Trading data and key metrics Trading data and key metrics Trading data and key metrics
52-wk range 52-wk range 52-wk range NT$505.00-40.55
Market cap. Market cap. Market cap. NT$1,349b/US$41.9b
Shares o/s Shares o/s Shares o/s 3,099m (ORD)
Free float Free float Free float 37%
Avg. daily volume ('000) Avg. daily volume ('000) Avg. daily volume ('000) 125,613
Avg. daily value (m) Avg. daily value (m) Avg. daily value (m) NT$40,946.1
Common s/h equity (12/26E) Common s/h equity (12/26E) Common s/h equity (12/26E) NT$452b
P/BV (12/26E) P/BV (12/26E) P/BV (12/26E) 3.3x
Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) NM
EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$)
From To %ch Cons.
12/26E 52.84 62.35 18 54.18
12/27E 88.63 103.66 17 74.74
12/28E 94.19 106.54 13 66.31
Nicolas Gaudois Analyst nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com
+65-6495 5148 Jimmy
Yoon Analyst jimmy.yoon@ubs.com +65-6495 4617
Luke Yoo Analyst
luke.yoo@ubs.com +82-2-3702 8132

Nanya Technology - 2408. TW Price

Pivotal Questions

2024

UBS VIEW

EVIDENCE

WHAT´S PRICED IN?

Company Description

2025

TWD 435.5

09 Jul

660.0

• 555.0

1.7 to 1

Upside to Downside

Upside:

+52%

Base:

+27%

Thesis Map UBS Research THESIS MAP a guide to our thinking and what´s where in this report

300.0

Downside: -31%

Q: Will DRAM undersupply continue into 2028?

Yes in our view. Agentic AI is boosting further memory demand on multiple fronts beyond HBM, including DDR5/LPDDR5 for conventional servers and CPU head nodes in AI servers. We now forecast an acceleration of memory demand growth into 2027 with DRAM bit end-consumption growing 36% YoY vs 22% in 2026. As almost all of the incremental wafer capacity addition for DRAM is going to HBM, supply is not catching up with demand. The main risk remains affordability by customers as memory industry revenues are expected to reach US$1.8tn in 2027E.

Q: Can NTC grow as a niche DRAM player?

Yes. 2026 and 2027 are likely to be years of more constrained growth. Subsequently though, we think its process tech migration to 1c nm and 1d nm will likely lead to a 30% increase in bits per wafer for each process tech migration (at comparable yields). NTC is also slightly pulling in its new fab ramp, with equipment expected to move in 1Q27 and initial output mid 2027. We also see a tail of DDR3 and DDR4 products NTC can address for a while.

Nanya Tech shares trade at 2.36x NTM P/BV, above +1SD of its 10-year average. That said, we believe the strength of the unfolding DRAM cycle as well as the tail of legacy products that Nanya can address as a niche player should provide support for the stock from here.

Our industry checks suggest HBM demand continues to result in capacity allocation away from DDR, which may moderate possible cyclical corrections, supporting upside to DDR contract pricing for longer.

At 2.85x NTM P/BV, we believe Nanya Tech shares are discounting a LT average ROE of 23.5% vs our LT estimate of 28.4%.

報告_UBS_南亞科2408_20260710_001

Source: UBS estimates

Nanya Tech is a specialty DRAM supplier in Taiwan focusing on 20nm technology.

UBS Forecasts

Figure 1: Nanya Tech - UBSe vs Consensus

3Q26E 3Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 4Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(NT$m) UBSe Cons Delta UBSe Cons Delta UBSe Cons Delta UBSe Cons Delta UBSe Cons Delta
Sales 102,486 84,277 22% 110,838 88,759 25% 344,960 295,195 17% 570,140 422,495 35% 671,311 452,166 48%
Operating Profit 76,558 64,627 18% 82,831 67,035 24% 250,317 215,587 16% 420,399 301,996 39% 426,491 274,669 55%
%OP margin 74.7% 76.7% -198bps 74.7% 75.5% -79bps 72.6% 73.0% -47bps 73.7% 71.5% 226bps 63.5% 60.7% 279bps
EPS (NT$) 18.84 16.72 13% 20.45 17.68 16% 62.35 52.74 18% 103.66 72.69 43% 106.54 66.65 60%

Source: Visible Alpha, UBS estimates

Figure 2: Nanya Tech - New vs Old

3Q26E 3Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 4Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(Won bn) New Old Delta New Old Delta New Old Delta New Old Delta New Old Delta
Sales 102,486 87,557 17% 110,838 90,879 22% 344,960 308,353 12% 570,140 517,651 10% 671,311 605,531 11%
Operating Profit 76,558 62,069 23% 82,831 61,615 34% 250,317 212,825 18% 420,399 362,597 16% 426,491 378,213 13%
%OP margin 74.7% 70.9% 381bps 74.7% 67.8% 693bps 72.6% 69.0% 354bps 73.7% 70.0% 369bps 63.5% 62.5% 107bps
EPS 18.84 15.06 25% 20.45 15.06 36% 62.35 52.84 18% 103.66 88.63 17% 106.54 94.19 13%

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 3: Nanya Tech - DRAM forecasts

2025 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
DRAM revenues (NT$m) 66,587 49,087 82,549 102,486 110,838 344,960 124,291 130,870 146,564 168,414 570,140 671,311 376,715 276,208
%QoQ 63% 68% 24% 8% 12% 5% 12% 15%
%YoY 95% 583% 684% 446% 268% 418% 153% 59% 43% 52% 65% 18% -44% -27%
DRAM revenues (US$m) 2,158 1,579 2,647 3,202 3,443 10,871 3,861 4,065 4,553 5,232 17,711 20,853 11,702 8,580
%QoQ 62% 68% 21% 8% 12% 5% 12% 15%
%YoY 97% 623% 677% 412% 254% 404% 144% 54% 42% 52% 63% 18% -44% -27%
DRAM unit shipment (1Gb eq) 4,643 1,441 1,438 1,322 1,210 5,410 1,244 1,261 1,379 1,602 5,485 7,998 10,351 12,410
%QoQ -6% 0% -8% -8% 3% 1% 9% 16%
%YoY 54% 123% 32% -4% -21% 17% -14% -12% 4% 32% 1% 46% 29% 20%
DRAM ASP (US$ 1Gb eq) 0.46 1.10 1.84 2.42 2.85 2.01 3.10 3.22 3.30 3.27 3.23 2.61 1.13 0.69
%QoQ 73% 68% 32% 17% 9% 4% 2% -1%
%YoY 28% 224% 487% 432% 349% 332% 183% 75% 36% 15% 61% -19% -57% -39%
Operating Profit (NT$m) 5,242 30,102 60,826 76,558 82,831 250,317 92,808 97,262 108,030 122,299 420,399 426,491 141,475 80,136
%OP margin 7.9% 61.3% 73.7% 74.7% 74.7% 72.6% 74.7% 74.3% 73.7% 72.6% 73.7% 63.5% 37.6% 29.0%

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 4: Nanya Tech - Income Statement forecasts

(NT$m) 2025 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Revenues 66,587 49,087 82,549 102,486 110,838 344,960 124,291 130,870 146,564 168,414 570,140 671,311 376,715 276,208
%QoQ 63% 68% 24% 8% 12% 5% 12% 15%
%YoY 95% 583% 684% 446% 268% 418% 153% 59% 43% 52% 65% 18% -44% -27%
COGS 51,600 15,761 16,930 20,166 21,730 74,587 23,758 24,917 28,876 35,492 113,042 194,601 190,815 165,811
Gross Profit 14,986 33,325 65,619 82,320 89,109 270,373 100,534 105,954 117,688 132,923 457,098 476,711 185,900 110,396
%GP margin 22.5% 67.9% 79.5% 80.3% 80.4% 78.4% 80.9% 81.0% 80.3% 78.9% 80.2% 71.0% 49.3% 40.0%
Operating Expenses 9,745 3,224 4,793 5,762 6,277 20,056 7,726 8,692 9,658 10,623 36,699 50,220 44,425 30,260
R&D 7,043 2,118 3,230 3,330 3,530 12,208 3,730 3,830 3,830 3,730 15,120 16,120 17,320 18,120
SG&A 2,702 1,105 1,563 2,432 2,747 7,847 3,996 4,862 5,828 6,893 21,579 34,100 27,105 12,140
Opex as %of revenues 14.6% 6.6% 5.8% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 6.2% 6.6% 6.6% 6.3% 6.4% 7.5% 11.8% 11.0%
Operating Profit 5,242 30,102 60,826 76,558 82,831 250,317 92,808 97,262 108,030 122,299 420,399 426,491 141,475 80,136
%OP margin 7.9% 61.3% 73.7% 74.7% 74.7% 72.6% 74.7% 74.3% 73.7% 72.6% 73.7% 63.5% 37.6% 29.0%
Non-Operating Income 2,641 1,616 1,504 2,694 3,195 9,009 3,781 4,188 3,622 4,168 15,760 21,772 28,427 28,285
Investment Income 417 239 239 239 239 955 239 239 239 239 955 955 955 955
Interest Income 1,907 527 1,029 2,456 2,956 6,967 3,542 3,950 3,383 3,929 14,805 20,818 27,472 27,330
Others 316 851 237 0 0 1,087 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 0 0
Earnings Before Tax 7,882 31,718 62,330 79,252 86,026 259,326 96,589 101,450 111,652 126,467 436,159 448,264 169,902 108,421
Tax Expenses 1,269 5,660 12,138 14,265 15,485 47,548 17,386 18,261 20,097 22,764 78,509 80,687 30,582 19,516
%Tax rate 16.1% 17.8% 19.5% 18.0% 18.0% 18.3% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%
Earnings After Tax 6,613 26,058 50,192 64,987 70,541 211,778 79,203 83,189 91,555 103,703 357,650 367,576 139,319 88,905
Minority Interest (1) (1) 0 0 0 (1) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Profit After MI 6,614 26,059 50,192 64,987 70,541 211,779 79,203 83,189 91,555 103,703 357,650 367,576 139,319 88,905
EPS 2.13 8.41 14.66 18.84 20.45 62.35 22.96 24.11 26.54 30.06 103.66 106.54 40.38 25.77

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 5: Nanya Tech - Balance Sheet forecasts

(Won bn) 2025 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Cash and Cash Equivalents 58,074 86,281 200,451 240,462 287,379 287,379 319,979 274,664 318,353 370,281 370,281 524,859 561,680 557,940
Accounts Receivable 16,558 25,247 45,232 50,541 54,660 54,660 61,294 64,539 72,278 83,054 83,054 88,722 35,633 45,567
Inventories 27,288 24,331 11,132 13,260 14,288 14,288 15,621 16,384 18,987 23,337 23,337 38,863 30,227 25,966
Other Current Assets 6,621 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748
Total Current Assets 108,541 141,607 262,563 310,011 362,075 362,075 402,643 361,335 415,367 482,420 482,420 658,192 633,288 635,221
Tangible Assets 85,031 87,349 88,425 107,280 126,115 126,115 164,551 202,988 241,424 279,861 279,861 388,914 456,245 505,756
Intangible Assets 531 500 511 701 891 891 1,280 1,668 2,056 2,444 2,444 3,546 4,226 4,726
Investments 5,904 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111 6,111
Other Non-Current Assets 8,446 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401 5,401
Total Non-Current Assets 99,912 99,361 100,447 119,493 138,518 138,518 177,343 216,168 254,992 293,817 293,817 403,972 471,983 521,994
Total Assets 208,453 240,968 363,011 429,503 500,593 500,593 579,986 577,502 670,359 776,237 776,237 1,062,164 1,105,271 1,157,216
Account Payables 6,481 7,298 5,566 7,072 7,620 7,620 7,811 8,192 9,494 11,668 11,668 19,432 15,113 12,983
ST Debts 5,060 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Current Liabilities 7,480 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910 17,910
Current Liabilities 19,020 25,207 23,476 24,982 25,530 25,530 25,720 26,101 27,403 29,578 29,578 37,341 33,023 30,892
LT Liabilities 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996 3,996
Other Non-Current Liabilities 35 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83
Non-Current Liabilities 18,894 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724 22,724
Total Liabilities 37,914 47,931 46,199 47,705 48,253 48,253 48,444 48,825 50,127 52,302 52,302 60,065 55,747 53,616
Total Shareholders' Equity 170,538 193,037 316,811 381,798 452,339 452,339 531,542 528,677 620,232 723,936 723,936 1,002,099 1,049,524 1,103,599

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 6: Nanya Tech - Cash Flow Statement forecasts

(Won bn) 2025 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Net Profit 6,614 26,059 50,192 64,987 70,541 211,779 79,203 83,189 91,555 103,703 357,650 367,576 139,319 88,905
Depreciation and Amortization 14,281 2,897 2,960 3,495 3,515 12,868 9,463 9,463 9,463 9,463 37,853 58,853 76,853 94,853
Changes in Assets and Liabilities (3,610) (6,911) (8,518) (5,931) (4,599) (25,958) (7,778) (3,625) (9,041) (12,950) (33,395) (13,431) 57,407 (7,803)
Changes in A/R (12,259) (8,414) (19,985) (5,309) (4,119) (37,826) (6,634) (3,244) (7,739) (10,775) (28,394) (5,668) 53,089 (9,934)
Changes in Inventories 8,031 2,957 13,199 (2,128) (1,028) 13,000 (1,334) (762) (2,604) (4,350) (9,049) (15,526) 8,636 4,261
Changes in A/P 618 (1,454) (1,732) 1,506 548 (1,131) 191 381 1,302 2,175 4,048 7,763 (4,318) (2,130)
Others 1,284 9,503 0 0 0 9,503 0 0 0 0 0 (0) (0) (0)
Cash Flow from Operations 18,568 31,549 44,634 62,552 69,458 208,192 80,888 89,027 91,977 100,216 362,109 412,998 273,579 175,954
Capital Expenditures (13,245) (2,851) (4,046) (22,541) (22,541) (51,978) (48,288) (48,288) (48,288) (48,288) (193,152) (169,008) (144,864) (144,864)
Others (865) 37 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
NOCF 5,324 28,698 40,588 40,011 46,917 156,214 32,600 40,739 43,689 51,928 168,957 243,990 128,715 31,090
Cash Flow from Investments (14,110) (2,814) (4,046) (22,541) (22,541) (51,942) (48,288) (48,288) (48,288) (48,288) (193,152) (169,008) (144,864) (144,864)
Dividend 0 0 (5,135) 0 0 (5,135) 0 (86,054) 0 0 (86,054) (89,413) (91,894) (34,830)
Other (6,317) (1,547) 78,717 0 0 77,170 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Flow from Financing (6,317) (1,547) 73,582 0 0 72,035 0 (86,054) 0 0 (86,054) (89,413) (91,894) (34,830)
Cash Flow from Others (1,970) 1,019 0 0 0 1,019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Cash flow (3,829) 28,207 114,170 40,011 46,917 229,305 32,600 (45,315) 43,689 51,928 82,903 154,577 36,821 (3,740)

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 7: Nanya Tech - UBS valuation

UBS price target (NT$) 555.00
Current stock price (NT$) 435.50
Number of shares (mil) 3,423
Market cap (NT$m) 1,490,717
Net debt (NT$m) (196,455)
EV (NT$m) 1,294,262
2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Current valuation (x)
EV/Revenues 19.44 3.75 2.27 1.93 3.44 4.69
P/Book 7.91 3.27 2.08 1.50 1.43 1.36
P/E 204.04 6.98 4.20 4.09 10.79 16.90
EV/EBITDA 66.30 4.92 2.82 2.67 5.93 7.40
Target price valuation (x)
EV/Revenues 25.58 4.94 2.99 2.54 4.52 6.17
P/Book 10.08 4.17 2.65 1.91 1.82 1.74
P/E 260.02 8.90 5.35 5.21 13.74 5.21
EV/EBITDA 87.25 6.47 3.72 3.51 7.80 9.73
Other
EPS 2.13 62.35 103.66 106.54 40.38 25.77
%ROE 3.9% 68.0% 60.8% 42.6% 13.6% 8.3%
Book value per share (NT$) 55.04 133.18 209.82 290.45 304.19 319.87
Cash per share (NT$) 18.74 84.61 107.32 152.12 162.80 161.71
Free cash flow per share (NT$) 1.44 46.00 48.97 70.72 37.31 9.01
%Free cash flow yield 0.3% 10.6% 11.2% 16.2% 8.6% 2.1%

Source: Company data, UBS estimates. Priced as of 9 July 2026.

Nanya Technology (2408.TW)

Income Statement (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E %ch 12/27E %ch 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Revenues 29,892 34,132 66,587 344,960 NM 570,140 65.3 671,311 376,715 276,208
Gross profit (4,483) (421) 14,986 270,373 NM 457,098 69.1 476,711 185,900 110,396
EBITDA (UBS) 865 5,589 19,523 263,185 NM 458,252 74.1 485,344 218,328 174,989
Depreciation & amortisation (15,326) (16,144) (14,281) (12,868) 9.9 (37,853) -194.2 (58,853) (76,853) (94,853)
EBIT (UBS) (14,460) (10,555) 5,242 250,317 NM 420,399 67.9 426,491 141,475 80,136
Associates & investment income 193 101 417 955 128.7 955 0.0 955 955 955
Other non-operating income 549 923 316 1,087 243.6 0 - 0 0 0
Net interest 3,014 2,974 1,907 6,967 265.4 14,805 112.5 20,818 27,472 27,330
Exceptionals (incl goodwill) 0 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 0 0
Pre-tax profit (10,705) (6,557) 7,882 259,326 NM 436,159 68.2 448,264 169,902 108,421
Tax 3,265 1,474 (1,269) (47,548) NM (78,509) -65.1 (80,687) (30,582) (19,516)
Profit after tax (7,440) (5,083) 6,613 211,778 NM 357,650 68.9 367,576 139,319 88,905
Preference dividends 0 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 0 0
Minorities 0 0 (1) (1) -21.4 0 - 0 0 0
Extraordinary items 0 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 0 0
Net earnings (local GAAP) (7,440) (5,083) 6,612 211,777 NM 357,650 68.9 367,576 139,319 88,905
Net earnings (UBS) (7,440) (5,083) 6,612 211,777 NM 357,650 68.9 367,576 139,319 88,905
Tax rate (%) 0.0 0.0 16.1 18.3 13.9 18.0 -1.8 18.0 18.0 18.0
Per Share (NT$) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E %ch 12/27E %ch 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
EPS (UBS, diluted) (2.40) (1.64) 2.13 62.35 NM 103.66 66.2 106.54 40.38 25.77
EPS (local GAAP, diluted) (2.40) (1.64) 2.13 62.35 NM 103.66 66.2 106.54 40.38 25.77
EPS (UBS, basic) (2.40) (1.64) 2.13 62.35 NM 103.66 66.2 106.54 40.38 25.77
DPS (net) (NT$) 0.00 0.00 1.50 24.94 NM 25.92 3.9 26.63 10.10 6.44
Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) 1 2.55 3.57 6.74 NM 114.63 73.3 123.60 62.66 53.26
Book value per share 53.98 53.37 55.04 66.14 133.18 142.0 209.82 57.5 290.45 304.19 319.87
Average shares (diluted) 3,098 3,099 3,099 3,396 9.6 3,450 1.6 3,450 3,450 3,450
Balance Sheet (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E %ch 12/27E %ch 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Cash and equivalents 58,812 61,903 58,074 287,379 394.8 370,281 28.8 524,859 561,680 557,940
Other current assets 37,698 46,043 50,467 74,696 48.0 112,139 50.1 133,333 71,608 633,288 77,281
Total current assets Net tangible fixed assets 96,510 81,838 107,946 84,327 108,541 85,031 362,075 126,115 233.6 48.3 482,420 279,861 33.2 121.9 658,192 388,914 456,245 635,221 505,756
Net intangible fixed assets 927 688 531 891 67.8 2,444 174.2 3,546 4,226 4,726
Investments / other assets 13,076 13,745 14,349 11,512 -19.8 11,512 0.0 11,512 11,512 11,512
192,351 776,237 1,157,216
Total assets 206,706 208,453 500,593 140.1 55.1 1,062,164 1,105,271
Trade payables & other ST liabilities 8,937 11,510 13,960 25,530 82.9 29,578 15.9 37,341 33,023 30,892
Short term debt Total current liabilities 11,181 20,118 21,270 5,060 19,020 0 25,530 - 34.2 0 29,578 - 15.9 0 37,341 0 33,023 0 30,892
Long term debt 0 32,780 3,995 3,996 3,996 0.0 3,996 0.0 3,996 3,996 3,996
Other long term liabilities 5,309 4,878 14,898 18,727 25.7 18,727 0.0 18,727 18,727 18,727
Preferred shares 0 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 0 0
Total liabilities (incl pref shares) 25,427 41,653 37,914 48,253 27.3 52,302 8.4 60,065 55,747 53,616
Common s/h equity 166,924 165,053 170,538 452,339 165.2 723,936 60.0 1,002,099 1,049,524 1,103,599
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 0 0
Total liabilities & equity 192,351 206,706 208,453 500,593 140.1 776,237 55.1 1,062,164 1,105,271 1,157,216
Cash Flow (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E %ch 12/27E %ch 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Net income (before pref divs) (7,440) (5,083) 6,612 211,777 NM 357,650 68.9 194.2 367,576 58,853 139,319 76,853 88,905
Depreciation & amortisation Net change in working capital 15,326 (5,679) 16,144 (6,705) 14,281 (3,610) 12,868 (25,958) -9.9 NM 37,853 (33,395) -28.6 (13,431) 57,407 94,853 (7,803)
(8,303) (2,404) 1,284 9,503 NM 0 - 0 0 0
Other operating Operating cash (6,095) 1,952 NM 362,109 73.9 412,998 273,579
flow Tangible capital (13,112) (15,981) 18,566 (13,112) 208,189 (191,220) (167,318) (143,415) 175,954 (143,415)
expenditure (51,459) (520) -292.5 -271.6 (1,690) (1,449) (1,449)
Intangible capital expenditure (132) 0 (161) (132) -292.5 - (1,932) 0 -271.6 - 0
Net (acquisitions) & disposals 0 0 0 0
Other investing 459 (45) 0 (865) 37 - 0 0 0 0 (144,864)
Investing cash flow (12,786) (16,188) 0 (14,110) 0 (51,942) -268.1 (193,152) - -271.9 (169,008) (144,864) (91,894) (34,830)
Equity dividends paid (6,600) 0 (5,135) 0 - (86,054) 0 NM - (89,413) 0 0 0
Share issues / (buybacks) 0 -
Other financing (596) 0 4,051 (97) 78,448 - 0 0 0 0
Change in debt & pref shares 11,392 9,656 (6,221) (1,278) 79.5 0 (86,054) - - 0 (89,413) 0 0 (34,830)
Financing cash flow Cash flow inc/(dec) in cash 4,196 13,707 (529) (6,317) 72,035 - - 82,903 - -63.7 154,577 (91,894)
FX / non cash items (14,685) (96) (1,860) (1,968) 228,283 1,021 - 0 -100.0 0 36,821 0 (3,740) 0
Balance sheet inc/(dec) in (14,781) 3,619 3,091 (3,829) 229,305 - 154,577 36,821 (3,740)
cash 82,903 -63.8

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts. 1 Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) is calculated using UBS net income adding back depreciation and amortization.

Nanya Technology (2408.TW)

Valuation (x) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
P/E (local GAAP, diluted) NM NM 32.5 7.0 4.2 4.1 10.8 16.9
P/E (UBS, diluted) (27.9) (34.4) 32.5 7.0 4.2 4.1 10.8 16.9
P/CEPS 26.3 15.8 10.3 6.6 3.8 3.5 7.0 8.2
Equity FCF (UBS) yield% (9.3) (8.1) 2.5 11.6 12.5 18.1 9.5 2.3
Dividend yield (net)% 0.0 0.0 2.2 5.7 6.0 6.1 2.3 1.5
P/BV 1.2 1.1 1.3 3.3 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.4
EV/revenues (core) 5.2 3.9 2.4 3.1 1.7 1.2 2.1 2.9
EV/EBITDA (UBS core) >100 23.9 8.2 4.0 2.1 1.7 3.7 4.5
EV/EBIT (core) NM NM 30.4 4.2 2.3 1.9 5.7 9.8
EV/OpFCF (core) NM NM 24.9 5.0 3.7 2.6 10.7 24.9
EV/op. invested capital 1.4 1.1 1.3 7.6 3.8 2.0 1.7 1.5
Enterprise value (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Market cap. 207,317 174,677 214,287 1,349,452 1,349,452 1,349,452 1,349,452 1,349,452
Net debt (cash) (47,631) (36,638) (49,018) (283,382) (366,285) (520,862) (539,273) (555,814)
Buy out of minorities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pension provisions/other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total enterprise value 159,686 138,039 165,268 1,066,070 983,168 828,590 810,180 793,639
Non core assets (5,120) (4,645) (5,904) (6,111) (6,111) (6,111) (6,111) (6,111)
Core enterprise value 154,566 133,394 159,365 1,059,959 977,057 822,479 804,069 787,528
Growth (%) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Revenue (47.5) 14.2 95.1 NM 65.3 17.7 (43.9) (26.7)
EBITDA (UBS) (96.7) NM NM NM 74.1 5.9 (55.0) (19.9)
EBIT (UBS) - 27.0 - NM 67.9 1.4 (66.8) (43.4)
EPS (UBS, diluted) - 31.7 - NM 66.2 2.8 (62.1) (36.2)
Net DPS - - - NM 3.9 2.8 (62.1) (36.2)
Margins & Profitability (%) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Gross profit margin NM NM 22.5 NM NM 71.0 49.3 40.0
EBITDA margin 2.9 16.4 29.3 NM NM 72.3 58.0 63.4
EBIT (UBS) margin (48.4) (30.9) 7.9 72.6 73.7 63.5 37.6 29.0
Net earnings (UBS) margin NM NM 9.9 61.4 62.7 54.8 37.0 32.2
ROIC (EBIT) NM NM 4.4 NM NM NM 29.4 15.6
ROIC post tax NM NM 3.7 NM NM NM 24.1 12.8
ROE (UBS) (4.3) (3.1) 3.9 68.0 60.8 42.6 13.6 8.3
Capital structure & Coverage (x) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Net debt / EBITDA (55.0) (6.6) (2.5) (1.1) (0.8) (1.1) (2.6) (3.2)
Net debt / total equity% (28.5) (22.2) (28.7) (62.6) (50.6) (52.0) (53.1) (50.2)
Net debt / (net debt + total equity)% (39.9) (28.5) (40.3) NM NM NM NM NM
Net debt/EV% (38.0) (30.5) (25.9) (15.6) (33.0) (53.5) (66.6) (70.0)
Capex / depreciation% 86.4 100.0 92.7 NM NM NM 188.5 152.7
Capex / revenue% NM NM 19.7 14.9 NM 24.9 NM NM
EBIT / net interest - - - - - - - -
Dividend cover (UBS) - - 1.4 2.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Div. payout ratio (UBS)% - - 70.3 40.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Revenues by division (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Others 29,892 34,132 66,587 344,960 570,140 671,311 376,715 276,208
Total 29,892 34,132 570,140 671,311 376,715 276,208
66,587 344,960
EBIT (UBS) by division (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E
Others (14,460) (10,555) 5,242 250,317 420,399 426,491 141,475 80,136
Total (14,460) (10,555) 5,242 250,317 420,399 426,491 141,475 80,136

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 27.4%
Forecast dividend yield 5.7%
Forecast stock return 33.2%
Market return assumption 6.3%
Forecast excess return 26.9%

Company Description

Nanya Tech is a pure DRAM company based in Taiwan, focusing on legacy products for consumers, broad-based applications and is now growing in servers.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Nanya Tech is a pure-play DRAM manufacturer based in Taiwan mainly focused on legacy DDR products for customers across various end applications. We think downside risks to our thesis could include a potential slowdown in end demand and hence the conventional memory cycle as well as Nanya's legacy-centric product portfolio. We value Nanya Tech shares using a target NTM P/BV multiple based on long-term average ROE and cost of equity.

Quantitative Research Review

UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.

Nanya Technology

Question Response
1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) 4
2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) 3
3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) 4
4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view) 4
5. What's driving the difference?
6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) 3
7. What's driving the difference?
8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the next three months? Positive Catalyst
9. Is there an actual or approximate date for the catalyst? August 14, 2026
10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approximate date? Approximate
11. What is the catalyst? Further upside to DDR pricing

Required Disclosures

This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".

For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 10 July 2026 02:30 PM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts coauthor research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses, please see the Quantitative Research Review Addendum at the back of this report, where applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/ quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quantanswers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.

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