報告_UBS_創意電子3443_20260922

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圖片清單（已驗證 2026-09-24）

原始內容

Global Unichip

Better wafer allocation and demand upside driving H226-2027E earnings growth

Better wafter allocation driving H226-2027E PU project ramps

e expect CPU projects to remain GUC's main revenue driver in 2026-27E and see improved wafer allocation into 2027E. e now expect Google CPU volumes to ramp from 1.3mn units in 2026E to ~4mn units in 2027E, supported by rising TPU shipments (up 117% YoY in 2027E), a rising CPU-to-TPU ratio, and better wafer allocation from TSMC. Although GUC's CPU projects carry lower GM, we believe they remain earnings accretive given the operating leverage from limited incremental OPEX requirements. e now expect 2026E revenue growth of 94% YoY to NT$66.3 bn (vs prior +90% YoY) and 2027E revenue to grow 146% YoY (with Google CPU contributing 67% of 2027E sales), up from our prior estimate of 84% YoY. e also expect OPM to expand from 13.2% in 2026E to 13.9% in 2028E. Accordingly, we raise our 2027/28E EPS estimates by 29%/22% and lift our PT to NT$8,660 (from NT$6,700), based on 52x average 202728E EPS. Our 2027/28E EPS estimates are 23%/14% above consensus.

Broadening SP exposure supports medium-term growth

Beyond the Google CPU ramp, we also see improving demand from Microsoft's Maia platform, where GUC supplies CPU and the Maia 200 accelerator. Although Maia 300 is shifting to another supplier, we see extended runway for Maia 200, as well as continued CPU shipments into 2027E. For the next-gen Maia 400, we believe this remains in the bidding stage, with GUC maintaining a competitive position over peers. GUC also secured a 2nm ASIC project from Meta in Q226 for a turnkey revenue ramp from mid2028E. These CPU and ASIC projects, along with GUC's strong execution track record, provide attractive opportunities to engage with top CSPs on accelerator opportunities. Nevertheless, we do not expect meaningful revenue contribution before 2028.

Automotive to see more significant contribution from mid-2027E

e believe automotive will be another key growth driver for GUC over the medium term, initially supported by a Chinese EV customer from late-2026, followed by a US EV maker in H227E. e estimate automotive will contribute 2%/13% of total revenue in 2026E/27E, respectively, increasing further to 18% in 2028E. As GUC offers higher value-add in the automotive projects vs. Google CPU, we believe they should support GM and deliver a higher profit contribution relative to sales. In addition, revenue could see further upside should these solutions expand into robotic applications.

Valuation: Retain BUY, raise PT to NT$8,660

Our NT$8,660 price target is based on 52x average 2027-28E EPS (vs prior 50x), vs historical 17-84x range, supported by 56% CAGR in earnings over 2025-30E. e reiterate our Buy rating, as GUC is well positioned for upside in CPU demand, ramp of automotive projects, other ASICs and emerging optical interconnect opportunities.

Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 7,615.00 on 21-Sep-2026

Equities

Taiwan

Semiconductors

RI : 3443.T BBG: 3443 TT

Trading data and key metrics

Jerry Su

Analyst jerry.su@ubs.com +886-28-722 7306

Annie hen

Associate Analyst annie.chen@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7281

Thesis Map UBS Research THESIS MAP a guide to our thinking and what´s where in this report

Pivotal Questions

UBS VIE

EVIDENCE

HAT´S PRICED IN?

Upside/Downside Spectrum

Company Description

Q: an GU further grow its AI and high-performance computing sales?

Yes, in our view, supported by multiple drivers. GUC has benefited from being part of TSMC's ecosystem, with better access to TSMC's technology roadmap, especially on advanced nodes. It has won several CPU/XPU projects from US hyperscalers and it is also working with leading EV makers on next-generation autonomous driving ASICs. GUC aims to expand its tier-1 hyperscaler customer base and we believe there is an opportunity for it to provide advanced packaging services, leveraging the Co oS capacity it secured, even though it is not directly involved in the ASIC design.

Q: Are GU 's projects on mature nodes (16nm and above) sustainable?

e think they are likely to remain stable. GUC's customers are sticky on 16nm and higher nodes. Owing to its strong IP portfolio, which reduces design costs and improves manufacturing yield, these mature nodes still contribute around 30% of GUC's sales in 2025. hile we expect mature nodes to remain accretive to margins - catering to repeat projects that require little R&D resources - the growth is likely to be modest at 27% CAGR for 2025-28E vs 104% CAGR for advanced nodes.

Q: Will GU 's OPM recover in 2026-28?

e expect its OPM to show a slight improvement in 2026, as it further ramps the lower-GM Google CPU project, and incurs a temporary increase in opex due to the new Turing centre. However, we foresee a more significant improvement in OPM from 2027 as it ramps a higher GM autonomous driving project from H227, growing NRE contributions, and restocking of mature projects.

e reiterate our Buy rating on GUC and raise our 2026/27/28E EPS by 0.4%/29%/22%, respectively, primarily reflecting higher sales contributions from Google's CPU projects. e raise our price target from NT$6,700 to NT$8,660 based on 52x average 2027-28E EPS (vs a 17-84x historical range), supported by a 2025-30E EPS CAGR of 56%. Potential catalysts include: 1) further TPU/CPU upside from the Google project; 2) the continued ramp of Microsoft's AI CPU/ASIC chips and the potential to win back future-gen projects; 3) upside on new 2nm project wins; 4) a faster ramp of autonomous EV projects; and 5) advanced NRE opportunities with higher dollar content.

GUC's revenue remained muted in 2023-24, as it shifted its resources from Chinese to US customers due to BIS export controls. The customer diversification effort began bearing fruit in H125, as GUC recorded a notable uptick in the turnkey sales to US crypto customers, while the Google CPU ramp since late Q425 appears sustainable. ith the support of its major shareholder TSMC, which has enabled better access to advanced technology, GUC continues to work with Microsoft, Tesla and other hyperscalers on custom AI chipsets, which should underpin its growth in the next few years.

GUC stock rallied 57% in the past three months vs 3% for the TAIEX, on Google TPU news in our view, and is now trading at 55x 2027E EPS vs its historical 17-84x range. e believe the stock should continue to re-rate on TPU upside, rising CPU/TPU ratio, multiple automotive project ramps, and potential upside from wafer allocation. e expect a 56% CAGR in earnings over 2025-30E and foresee potential upward revisions in consensus earnings estimates being a catalyst.

Source: UBS estimates

GUC is an IC design service company founded in 1998. The company's business is to design chipsets for its customers who do not have semiconductor capability. It is ~35% owned by TSMC.

GUC financial summary

Figure 1: UBS vs consensus estimates

Source: Visible Alpha, UBS estimates

Figure 2: GU annual P&L summary

Source: Company data, UBS estimates.

Figure 3: GU annual and quarterly forecast summary

23.4% -9.2% 30.3% 105.9% 63.0% 127.6% 96.9% 93.1% -4.6% 36.3% 94.1% 145.9% 34.0%

28.1% 33.3% 24.2% 19.0% 27.2% 21.5% 19.7% 19.5% 32.4% 24.8% 21.3% 17.7% 17.8%

15.6% 15.5% 12.2% 10.1% 15.9% 12.1% 11.9% 13.5% 15.2% 12.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.9%

15.9% 15.9% 14.6% 14.5% 14.5% 11.4% 15.5% 15.5% 15.1% 15.2% 14.5% 15.5% 15.5%

45.1% -13.9% -16.1% 36.9% 71.2% 99.0% 105.7% 143.0% -1.6% 9.2% 107.0% 138.9% 39.7%

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 4: GU revenue by segment

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 5: GU historical PE range

Source: LSEG

Figure 6: GU FINIs holding

Source: TEJ

Upside/Downside Spectrum

Upside/Downside Spectrum

Risk to the current share price is skewed (1.7:1) to the upside

GUC is trading at NT$7,615 (as of 21 September 2026).

UPSIDE (NT$12,000.00): Our upside scenario factors in stronger sales growth in 202728E than we forecast in our base case, on the back of better demand for Google's TPU and US/China automotive projects, more N3 wafer allocation by leading foundries, and faster penetration of other hyperscalers, lifting 2027/28E sales by 170%/40% YoY. Our upside OPM assumptions are 13.4%/14.1% for 2027/28E, 0.2ppt above our base case owing to a limited increase in opex, supporting a 96% CAGR in earnings over 2026-28E. Our upside scenario valuation of NT$12,000.00 implies a 76x 2027E PE.

BASE (NT$8,660.00): Our base case reflects our expectations of a solid business growth outlook in 2027-28E, supported by the continued ramp of Google's CPU project, initial ramp of automotive projects from Q426, and expansion into other hyperscalers. e forecast 2027/28E sales to grow 146%/34% YoY, and OPM to expand to 13.2%/13.9% from 12.7% in 2025 on operating leverage, despite its GM potentially normalising to around 17.8% in 2028 (from 24.8% in 2025) on a higher proportion of sales from the CPU project, resulting in earnings growth of 83% CAGR over 2026-28E. Our base-case valuation of NT$8,660.00 implies a 52x 2027-28E average PE.

DOWNSIDE (NT$5,000.00): Our downside scenario factors in slower sales growth in 2027/28E than we forecast in our base case, due to softer growth in Google's CPU due to a wafer capacity constraint and slower demand for mature process products, dampening sales growth to 121%/26% YoY. Our downside OPM assumptions are 13.0%/13.7% for 2027/28E, 0.2pp below our base case, resulting in earnings growth decelerating to a 68% CAGR over 2026-28E. Our downside scenario valuation of NT$5,000.00 implies a 41x 2027E P/E.

Figure 7: GU upside/downside/base case

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Global Unichip (3443.TW)

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts. 1 Cash EPS (UBS, diluted) is calculated using UBS net income adding back depreciation and amortization.

Global Unichip (3443.TW)

Source: Company accounts, UBS estimates. (UBS) metrics use reported figures which have been adjusted by UBS analysts.

Forecast returns

ompany Description

Global Unichip (GUC) is a leading IC design service company in Taiwan, founded in 1998. The company's business is to design chipsets for customers that do not have IC design capability, with the goal of reducing entry barriers and risks for chipset design and shortening the time to market. The company's target to enable more IC design for start-ups and system companies is complimentary with TSMC, which would benefit from a growing customer and application base, in addition to the company's existing IC design and IDM customers.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

e value Global Unichip based on a PE methodology. Downside risks include a slower-than-expected business recovery for mature nodes, lack of new project wins, and wafer capacity constraints.

Quantitative Research Review

UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.

Global Unichip