報告_Nomura_聯發科2454_20261030

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原始內容

NOMURA

MediaTek 2454.TW 2454 TT

EQUITY: FABLESS

Dispels recent market noises with upside surprise; retain Buy

Quick Note

Maintain Buy and TP of TWD5,800

We recently noted that MediaTek's earnings call could prove to be a positive catalyst for its share price, considering a number of unfounded concerns and noises had taken center stage before the call (Preview: market concerns overdone). However, we believe some of MTK's messages during earnings call turned out to be even more bullish than we had expected, including: (1) TPU v.8 contribution of USD2.5bn in 4Q26E (vs. previous guidance of more than USD2bn, and Street concerns around MTK potentially missing the USD2bn target); (2) management now expects ASIC sales in 2027E to reach the high end (USD16bn) of its prior guidance range (USD14-16bn) vs. our forecast of USD14bn; (3) TPU v.9 schedule is on track for 1Q28E mass production (a powerful clarification vs. Street expectation of 1-2 quarters' delay); (4) management is very confident about v.9 EMIB-T future yield trend after resolving 2-3 key issues (implying no CoWoS back-up plan, vs. Street expectation of a CoWoS-based v.9 project being opened); (5) Mediatek announced that it has secured a 2nd ASIC customer with sales contribution from 2028E; (6) ASIC-driven operating leverage will kick in from 4Q26E (guidance suggesting 19% OPM in 4Q26E, vs our estimate of 18.6% and 3Q26's 16%; and management expects 2027E OPM to be above 20%, vs our estimate of 22%). The only downside surprise might be its 4Q26E sales guidance, which suggests 25%-32% q-q growth vs. our estimate of 34% q-q. We would watch if this is a low bar for MediaTek to beat. GPM guidance of 45%+-1.5% is 1pp lower than previous quarter's range (46%+-1.5%; and 46.3% actual in 3Q26) due to ASIC - in line with our forecast of 45.4%. Overall, we expect the share price to react positively to the earnings call and, thus, reiterate our Buy rating and TWD5,800 TP, based on 25x unchanged 2027-28 EPS estimate. The stock is currently trading at 16.9x.

Global Markets Research 30 October 2026

Research Analysts

Semiconductor

Aaron Jeng, CFA - NITB aaron.jeng@nomura.com +886(2) 21769962

Vivian Yang - NITB vivian.yang@nomura.com +886(2) 21769970

Eric Chen, CFA - NITB eric.chen@nomura.com +886(2) 21769965

Fig. 1: MediaTek's 3Q26 results and 4Q26F guidance vs Nomura forecasts and Bloomberg consensus

Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Nomura estimates

MediaTek: 3Q26 analysts briefing summary

Below comments are from MediaTek's management, unless otherwise stated :

Results summary

• 3Q26 revenue was TWD168.1bn (+10.4% q-q, +18.3% y-y), above the high end of the TWD152.2-159.8bn guidance. ·
• The beat came mainly from better-than-expected customer demand and improving supply. ○
• Growth was driven by volume production of several new Smart Edge projects and higher DRAM content in TV SoC. ○
• GM was 46.3% (+0.1pp q-q, -0.2pp y-y), within the 46% ±1.5pp guidance. ·
• Opex ratio was 30.2% (vs 31.2% in 2Q26 and 30.9% in 3Q25), within the 31% ±2pp guidance. ·
• OPM was 16.1% (+1.1pp q-q, +0.5pp y-y). ·
• Net income was TWD28.2bn (+14.6% q-q, +10.8% y-y). Net margin was 16.8% (+0.6pp q-q, -1.1pp y-y). ·
• EPS was TWD17.50 (TWD15.28 in 2Q26, TWD15.84 in 3Q25). Non-TIFRS EPS was TWD17.92. ·
• Average FX was TWD31.99/USD (2Q26: 31.60; guidance assumption: 32). ·

Prepared remarks

• MediaTek completed a USD3.9bn overseas convertible bond offering in 3Q, with participation from nVidia (NVDA US, Not rated) and Alphabet (GOOGL US, Not rated). ·
• This strengthens partnerships with key AI infrastructure players and helps secure capacity for critical components. ○
• MediaTek continues to make solid progress in both data center and edge devices. ·
• Datacenter ASIC ○
• Current gen: Demand remains very strong. Initial shipments began in September, and MediaTek is confident of delivering USD2.5bn of revenue in 4Q26. ·
• The 4Q upside comes from robust customer demand. MediaTek has worked closely with supply chain partners to secure supply, including substrates. ■
• For 2027E, the program is expected to reach the high end of the revenue target range, about USD16bn, or around 20% of the AI accelerator ASIC market. This is underpinned by a solid supply outlook, and MediaTek is working to secure additional capacity to meet demand. ■
• Next gen: Development is progressing well and is on track for HVM in 1Q28. ·
• The chip is purpose-built for the customer's next-generation AI infrastructure. It delivers multiple times higher performance per watt at a significantly lower TCO. ■
• It is expected to strengthen MediaTek's market position and contribute substantially to revenue growth. ■
• Technology: Solid progress continues in 448G SerDes, 3.5D advanced packaging, and CPO. ·
• Broader customer base: MediaTek is expanding beyond silicon into system and rack solutions. It connects custom xPUs to the NVLink Fusion ecosystem and also supports UALink. ·
• MediaTek continues to expand engagements with several customers. ·

Edge ○

• The RTX Spark AI PC (N1X), which integrates an nVidia GPU, became commercially available in mid-October through major PC OEMs. Next-gen SoC development is already underway. ·

• Dimensity 9500 powers the latest Samsung Galaxy AI tablets. This is the third consecutive generation of Samsung AI tablets using a MediaTek flagship SoC. ·

• Mobile: -1% q-q, -17% y-y (37% of revenue). ·

• Flagship outperformed as customers launched new AI flagship smartphones, including models with MediaTek's first 2nm SoC, the Dimensity 9600. ○
• Smart Edge: +22% q-q, +63% y-y (58% of revenue). ·
• Y-y growth was driven by volume production of new projects: a 5G thin modem for a new smartphone customer, new AI tablets, AI PCs, and automotive cockpits. TV SoC revenue rose on higher DRAM content. ○
• Power IC: +1% q-q, +18% y-y (5% of revenue). ·
• Y-y growth came mainly from share gains in data-center-related business. ○

4Q26 guidance

• Revenue is guided at TWD210.1-221.8bn (+25-32% q-q, +40-48% y-y), driven by the AI accelerator ramp-up, despite seasonal softness in consumer electronics. ·
• GM is guided at 45% ±1.5pp. ·
• Datacenter business blended GM is still below the corporate average, but OPM becomes accretive from 4Q. ○
• Price adjustments for non-DC businesses reflect supply chain cost increases. ○
• Opex ratio is guided at 26% ±2pp. ·
• 4Q marks the starting point of OPM improvement. MediaTek expects 2027E OPM of 20%+. ○
• FX assumption is TWD31.7/USD. ·
• Full-year revenue growth is now expected to exceed the previous target of highsingle-digit growth in USD. ·

Q&A

Any changes in ASIC schedule and milestones?

• The 2nd ASIC is on track and on schedule. ·
• MediaTek is aware of market noise about the tape-out schedule. The chip has multiple dies, and a couple have already taped out. ○
• The large, more complex die will also tape out on schedule, though it takes about three weeks longer than the others. ○
• 2028 will be another year of strong y-y growth based on the demand profile. No details yet, as the supply chain is still being finalized. ·

EMIB-T confidence

• MediaTek is working with the US IDM's packaging process and has built a strong inhouse manufacturing team led by experienced fab veterans. ·
• It is working closely with the IDM and substrate suppliers. ·
• Management has high confidence that yield will improve quickly once two or three key problems are resolved. ·
• MediaTek is working with both Taiwanese and Japanese suppliers. ○
• MediaTek is not dependent on a single supplier. ·
• TSMC (2330 TT, Buy) remains its most important partner, and the two work closely across the entire technology chain. ○

Next-next gen, TAM and contribution

• MediaTek is working very closely with the customer on the next-next generation. ·
• The customer is aggressive in pushing performance up and TCO down. ·
• This will be another challenging chip, and the definition will take time to finalize. ·
• Management will share more when the time is right. ·

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New ASIC client

• A 2nd customer is confirmed, separate from the lead customer. ·
• The project has kicked off, with first revenue and mass production expected in 2028. ·
• The customer is not from China. ·

Vendor financing for LLM customers?

• MediaTek will consider it if necessary and if it is the right customer. ·
• Returns versus capex have improved over the past six quarters. Management believes capex, whether from CSPs or frontier model companies, will generate enough revenue and cash flow. Some support may be needed during the transition period before cash generation stabilizes. ·

EMIB-T / HBM5 / technology capability and competition

• The entry barrier is the ability to integrate multiple technologies into manufacturable, scalable products: advanced packaging, HBM5, 448G SerDes, and low power. It is not any single technology. ·
• Competitors are strong, and MediaTek does not assume it is far ahead. However, it is confident it will win its share of the business. ·

NVLink Fusion benefits and customer interest

• It is a business model with strong technical content, and it makes it much easier for customers to integrate their own designs. ·
• The key advantage is much faster time to compute power. ·
• MediaTek and nVidia are in discussions with several potential customers. Feedback is positive, and MediaTek hopes to announce cases in the near term. ·

448G

• 448G SerDes has already taped out. ·
• 448G is a must going forward. It is an N6 design with very stringent power consumption requirements. ·
• It will not be on the critical path, and MediaTek will improve interoperability to serve a broader customer base. ·

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Appendix A-1

This report has been produced by Nomura International (Hong Kong) Ltd., Taipei Branch (NITB), Taiwan. See Disclaimers for Nomura Group entity details.