報告_MS_iPhone月度數據_20260914

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_iPhone月度數據_20260914_original.pdf

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檔名	size	分類	親眼所見內容
`報告_MS_iPhone月度數據_20260914_001.png`	74KB	真資料圖	Exhibit 1：iPhone Sell-in Data, by Quarter，mn units，1Q24–4Q26e，逐機型（SE3/SE5G/16e/17e、XR、11–18 系列各尺寸、iPhone Fold/Duo）出貨量，末列 Total／YoY／QoQ；本期新增 4Q26e 欄位
`報告_MS_iPhone月度數據_20260914_002.png`	55KB	真資料圖	Exhibit 2：iPad Sell-in Data, by Quarter，mn units，1Q24–4Q26e，逐機型（iPad mini/Air/Pro 各代）出貨量，末列 Total／YoY／QoQ；本期新增 4Q26e 欄位

原始內容

M Update September 14, 2026 12:00 AM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

Monthly Databook: No change for 3Q iPhone/iPad builds; introducing 4Q

Key Takeaways

3Q26e iPhone bui d unchanged at 54M units (+4% q/q, -2% y/y).
Introducing 4Q26e iPhone bui d estimate at 73M units (+35% q/q, -4% y/y).
3Q26e iPad bui d unchanged 12M units (-8% q/q, -14% y/y).
Introducing 4Q26e iPad bui d estimate at 11M units (-8% q/q, -21% y/y).

We keep our 3Q26 iPhone build estimate unchanged at 4M units (+4% q/q, -2%

y/y). The s ower y/y run rate ref ects new mode SKUs shifting to the premium segment (18 Pro/Pro Max and iPhone Fo d), whi e the iPhone 18 mode is schedu ed for introduction in 1H27. We introduce our 4Q26 iPhone build estimate at 73M units (+3 % q/q, -4% y/y). Tota new iPhone 18 mode fami y units reached 71M units (-21% y/y) in 2H26, with one ess SKU aunched compared to ast year. We expect 7M units of iPhone Duo bui ds in 2H26. A starting price of US$1,999 (re ative to expectations of US$2,300 or higher) appears favorab e to bui ds, but there are ike y sti some production issues that the supp y chain is working on. This is why the iPhone Duo is avai ab e to the market on y one month ater, and we wi continue to monitor ramp-up progress for any upside or downside to bui ds. Our fu year iPhone bui d estimate is 235M units (+3% y/y).

Our 3Q26 iPad build forecast is unchanged at 12M units (-8% q/q, -14% y/y). We attribute the 3Q sequentia dec ine to some pu -forward demand in 1H and the impact of rising prices. We introduce our 4Q iPad build forecast at 11M units (-8% q/q, -21% y/y). Our fu year iPad bui d estimate is 46.1M units (-15% y/y).

Exhibit 1: iPh ne Sell-in Data, by Quarter

S urce: C mpany data, M rgan Stanley Research. e = M rgan Stanley Asia Research estimates based n c mpany ann uncements and supply chain checks.

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Howard Kao Equity Analyst H ward.Ka @m rganstanley.c m	+886 2 2730-2989
Derrick Yang Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@m rganstanley.c m	+886 2 2730-2862
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@m rganstanley.c m	+852 2239-7689
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Irene Yen Research Ass ciate Irene.Yen@m rganstanley.c m	+886 2 2730-2869
Vivi Huang Research Ass ciate Vivi.Huang@m rganstanley.c m	+886 2 2730-2860
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Betty Chen Research Ass ciate Betty.H.Chen@m rganstanley.c m	+852 2239-7213

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific

Industry View In-Line

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

M Update

Exhibit : iPad Sell-in Data, by Quarter