報告_MS_Teradyne_3Q26_20261027

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_Teradyne_3Q26_20261027_original.pdf

原始內容

Morga Sta ley & Co. LLC Shane Brett Equity Analyst Shane.Brett@morganstanley.com	+1 212 761-1022
Cate Folan Research Associate Cate.M.Folan@morganstanley.com	+1 212 296-3520
Joseph Moore Equity Analyst Joseph.Moore@morganstanley.com	+1 212 761-7516
Ella Tulchinsky Equity Analyst Ella.Tulchinsky@morganstanley.com	+1 212 761-2222
Mason Wayne Research Associate Mason.Wayne@morganstanley.com	+1 212 761-6012
Nicole Kozhukhov Research Associate Nicole.Kozhukhov@morganstanley.com	+1 212 761-1636

Teradyne Inc(TER.O, TER US)

Semiconductor Capital Equipment | United States of America

Stock Rating - ndustry View			Equal-weight	Equal-weight - n-Line
Price target				$397.00
Shr price, close (Oct 26, 2026)				$309.00
Mkt cap, curr (mm)				$49,10
52-Week Range			$4 7.91-144.07	$4 7.91-144.07
Fiscal Year Ending	12/25	12/26e	12/27e	12/28e
EPS ($)**	4.0	9.25	11.91	14.17
Prior EPS ($)**	-	-	-	-
P/E	47.4	33.4	25.9	21.
EPS ($)§	-	9.17	11. 0	15.06
Div yld (%)	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Quarterly EPS ($) - Quarter	Quarterly EPS ($) - 2025	2026e	2026e PriorCurrent	2027e	2027e PriorCurrent
Q1	0.75	-	2.56a	-	2.40
Q2	0.57	-	2.47a	-	2.94
Q3	0. 5	-	2.04	-	3.19
Q4	1. 0	-	2.15	-	3.39

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

M Update October 27, 2026 09:24 PM GMT

Teradyne Inc | North America

Earnings First Take - Solid

Numbers upside slightly lower than the last 3 quarters, but solid nonetheless. Lots o questions or the earnings call (compute, memory, capacity, auto industrial).

What happened? TER reported SepQ revenue of $1,306mn (-1.7% q/q, +6 .8% y/y), ahead of MSe at $1,267mn. By Segment, product test saw a meaningful beat, with the company calling out HDDs, while robotics missed MSe. For DecQ, TER guided revenue to $1,300mn (-0.5% q/q, +20.0% y/y), in-line with MSe at $1,313mn and consensus at $1,26 mn.

What are we focused on for the earnings call (8:30 ST)? 1) Compute: TER's intra-quarter commentary on compute customer acquisitions sounded quite positive, particularly around custom ASICs. We're curious how the company is progressing on these opportunities, especially given its expectation to capture production share in 2027. 2) Capacity & Visibility: TER delivered meaningfully above the midpoint of its guidance over the last 4 quarters, supported by its ability to fulfill short-lead-time orders. Given current shipment levels, we're curious how much longer TER can continue accommodating these orders and whether the company is considering capacity expansion plans similar to Advantest's. 3) Memory: We currently model memory test revenue growing 75% y/y, but based on tester import data into Korea, we suspect results could be tracking ahead of our estimates. We're curious how TER views the sustainability of demand and evolving share dynamics, particularly given that test demand appears to be significantly outpacing wafer additions and bit output growth. 4) Auto & Industrial: We've been picking up indications of meaningful auto and industrial tester volumes. We're curious how significant a demand driver this has become and whether TER has been able to fully service demand this quarter or if supply constraints have limited shipments.

Exhibit 1: SepQ revenue by segment

Segment	Reported	Est	Diff (%)
Semiconductor Test	1,072 $	1,042 $	3%
Product Test	138 $	118 $	17%
Robotics	96 $	107 $	-10%

Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates M Update

Financial Summary

Exhibit 2: Earnings Snapshot

TER-US: Snapshot for the quarter ended September 2026

Income Statement - Qtr Results:	Income Statement - Actual	Income Statement - Actual	Income Statement - Actual	Income Statement - Lst Qtr	Income Statement - QoQ	Income Statement - Lst Yr	Income Statement - YoY	Income Statement - Consensus	Income Statement - MSe
Revenue	$1,306.0	$1,306.0	$1,306.0	$1,329.0	-1.7%	$769.2	69.8%	$1,267.8	$1,266.7
Gross Margin	59.1%	59.1%	59.1%	59.8%	-69bps	58.5%	64bps	58.6%	58.5%
EPS*	$2.29	$2.29	$2.29	$2.47	($0.18)	$0.85	$1.44	$2.09	$2.04
Nxt Qtr Outlook:	Low	High	Midpoint					Next Q Estimate	Next Q Estimate
Revenue	$1,250	$1,350	$1,300		-0.5%	$1,083.3	20.0%	$1,269.3	$1,313.1
EPS*	$1.95	$2.25	$2.10		($0.19)	$1.80	$0.30	$2.07	$2.15

EPS excludes stock-based compensation and extraordinary one-time items

Source: Company Data, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Teradyne Inc (TER.O)

28x FY28e EPS of $14.17, in-line with historical through-cycle average.

Risks to Upside

n ASIC, Networking, and ADAS test TAMs are larger than expected and TER increases market share
n TER breaks into merchant GPU test and captures meaningful share

Risks to Downside

n Apple & memory revenue recovery weaker than anticipated.
n Industrial automation business loses market share to larger competitors.
n TER loses share in Networking test.