PDF 原檔：報告_MS_貿聯-KY3665_20261006_original.pdf
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42KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：貿聯月營收（右軸 NT$mn）對股價自 2015 至 2026 的走勢圖（財務／股價類，公司頁不嵌） |
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51KB | 真資料圖 | 股價與 MS 目標價沿革（紅色階梯虛線，約 336→288→882→…→2,150→3,665）2023-10 至 2026-10（股價／目標價類，公司頁不嵌） |
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原始內容
M Update October 6, 2026 12:55 AM GMT
Bizlink | Asia Pacific
September Sales +5% MoM/ +39% YoY
In this report, we focus on Bizlin 's monthly sales, which we believe could be a catalyst for its share price.
Details:
- September sales came in at NT$9,332mn (+5% MoM/+39% YoY)
- 3 26 revenue reached NT$27,854mn (+20% o /+50% YoY), slightly short of MSe of NT$28,521mn (+23% o /+55% YoY) by 2% while exceeding consensus of NT$27,423mn (+18% o /+49% YoY) by 2%.
Our view:
- We think 3 26 revenue came in largely in-line with market expectations.
- Looking into 2H26, we expect HPC to remain the main growth driver, as power interconnects should continue to see momentum from AI/general servers. Meanwhile, data interconnects should grow along with new ASIC model ramp-up and GPU server demand. Moreover, semi cap equipment revenue growth should also sustain.
- We believe Bizlink has allocated increasing resources toward the optical interconnect space, including the collaboration on ALC with Credo, mini VCSEL optical module with ams-OSRAM and shuffle box with Corning. We think that these opportunities could help offset a potential slowdown in its AEC business as AEC solutions reach their scalability limits at higher data rates, likely from 3.2T.
- Stay OW.
Exhibit 1: Bizlink's monthly sales vs. its share price since 2015
Note: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. esults shown do not include transaction costs. Source: Company data, TEJ, Morgan Stanley esearch.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
| Derrick Yang Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2862 |
|---|---|
| Vivi Huang esearch Associate Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2860 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com | +852 2239-7689 |
Bizlink(3665.TW, 3665 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry iew | In-Line |
| Price target | NT$3,665.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 4 |
| Shr price, close (Oct 5, 2026) | NT$2,485.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$3,010.00- |
| 1,000.00 | |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 193 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$480,515 |
| EV, curr (mn) | NT$486,091 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$6, 12 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 46.5 | 69. | 120. | 143. |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 4 . 1 | 68.93 | 119. 0 | 154.48 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 1,24 | 101,953151,5161 | 4,996 | |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 15,154 | 21,153 | 34,384 | 41,510 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 9,005 | 13,491 | 23,353 | 2 ,800 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 32.6 | 35.6 | 20.6 | 1 .3 |
| P/BV | 6.4 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 5.1 |
| RNOA (%) | 24.2 | 26.2 | 39.8 | 41. |
| ROE (%) | 24.9 | 28.9 | 40.8 | 36.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.1 | 22.8 | 13. | 11.0 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | (0.8) | 1.5 | 2.9 | 5.1 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (0.9) | (8.3) | (19.1) | (32.5) |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Update
AlphaSignals Catalyst Event Reaction
| Company / Catalyst | Date | Impact to thesis | Catalyst versus expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bizlink 3665.TW | |||
| September 2026 monthly sales | 06 Oct 2026 | Unchanged | In-line |
M Update
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Bizlink (3665.TW)
Base case, derived from 30x 2027e P/E. We think our target P/E multiple is justified by an earnings CAGR of 46% seen over 2025-28e, which implies a PEG of around 0.7. This is in line with the average of 0.7 in 2019-24, when the stock was trading at an average 13x P/E for a 19% earnings CAGR.
Risks to Upside
- n Faster and wider AEC adoption
- nData center and semi equipment capex increases that drive stronger HPC and semi-cap business
- n Stronger recovery for automotive business
Risks to Downside
- n Lower-than-expected AEC adoption
- n Intensifying competition
- n Softer-than-expected AI capex
- n Slower-than-expected growth in the semi capital equipment market
- n Continued weakness in the auto industry
M Update
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Gr at r China T chnology Hardwar
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (10/05/2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Meng, CFA | ||
| AAC Technologies Holdings (2018.HK) | O (01/29/2024) | HK$38.64 |
| Accelink Technologies Co. Ltd. (002281.SZ) | U (05/12/2022) | Rmb164.88 |
| BYD Electronics (0285.HK) | O (04/28/2023) | HK$22. 6 |
| China TransInfo Technology Co Ltd (0023 3.SZ) | E (0 /18/2023) | Rmb .35 |
| Dahua Technology Co. Ltd. (002236.SZ) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb15.32 |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc Ltd (300502.SZ) | O (02/2 /2026) | Rmb389.00 |
| Genius Electronic Optical Co. Ltd. (3406.TW) | U (09/10/2026) | NT$1,055.00 |
| GoerTek Inc (002241.SZ) | E (08/14/2026) | Rmb22. 9 |
| Gosuncn Technology Group Co Ltd (300098.SZ) | U (11/0 /2022) | Rmb4.1 |
| HIKVision Digital Technology (002415.SZ) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb32.46 |
| Largan Precision (3008.TW) | E (09/10/2026) | NT$6, 30.00 |
| LianChuang Electronic Technology Co Ltd (002036.SZ) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb5.9 |
| Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (002600.SZ) | U (04/23/2025) | Rmb11.88 |
| Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (1688.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$5.46 |
| Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (24 5.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$53.35 |
| Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (0024 5.SZ) | O (10/24/2016) | Rmb49.43 |
| OFILM Group Co Ltd (002456.SZ) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb6.49 |
| Q Technology (Group) Company Ltd (14 8.HK) | U (03/23/2026) | HK$4.91 |
| Quectel Wireless Solutions Co Ltd (603236.SS) | E (10/09/2024) | Rmb 1.35 |
| Shanghai Conant Optical Co Ltd (22 6.HK) | O (04/10/2026) | HK$3 .16 |
| Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co Ltd (688036.SS) | E (03/23/2026) | Rmb53.80 |
| Sunny Optical (2382.HK) | E (03/23/2026) | HK$61.95 |
| Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd. (300394.SZ) | E (11/06/2025) | Rmb260. |
| Wingtech Technology Co Ltd (600 45.SS) | U (05/18/2026) | Rmb16.43 |
| Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK) | O (04/14/2021) | HK$23.88 |
M Update M Update Stock atings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company.
| Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (601869.SS) | U (10/13/2021) | Rmb411.16 |
|---|---|---|
| Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (6869.HK) | O (0 /15/2026) | HK$1 9.10 |
| Yongxin Optics Co Ltd (60329 .SS) | E (11/15/2022) | Rmb106.92 |
| Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co Ltd (0022 3.SZ) | O (11/15/2022) | Rmb24.40 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (300308.SZ) | O (09/0 /2026) | Rmb808.44 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (3308.HK) | O (09/0 /2026) | HK$1,111.00 |
| ZTE Corporation (0 63.HK) | O (06/04/2026) | HK$21.62 |
| ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ) | E (06/04/2026) | Rmb30.58 |
| Derrick Yang | ||
| Accton Technology Corporation (2345.TW) | O (06/06/2024) | NT$2,0 5.00 |
| Advantech (2395.TW) | O (01/20/2021) | NT$ 40.00 |
| AirTAC International (1590.TW) | O (04/16/2025) | NT$1,180.00 |
| Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (301 .TW) | O (0 /30/2024) | NT$3,585.00 |
| AU Optronics (2409.TW) | E (02/10/2026) | NT$39.05 |
| Auras Technology Co Ltd (3324.TWO) | E (05/04/2023) | NT$1,550.00 |
| Bizlink (3665.TW) | O (03/10/2025) | NT$2,485.00 |
| BOE Technology (000 25.SZ) | O (09/06/2019) | Rmb5. 2 |
| Chenbro (8210.TW) | O (0 /23/2025) | NT$890.00 |
| Chroma Ate Inc. (2360.TW) | O (10/05/2021) | NT$2,325.00 |
| Delta Electronics Inc. (2308.TW) | O (0 /13/201 ) | NT$2,005.00 |
| E Ink Holdings Inc. (8069.TWO) | E (08/10/2026) | NT$146.50 |
| Ennostar Inc (3 14.TW) | U (09/23/2022) | NT$68.20 |
| Fositek Corp (6805.TW) | O (06/25/2025) | NT$2,450.00 |
| Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW) | O (03/30/2026) | NT$345.50 |
| Innolux (3481.TW) | E (04/0 /2025) | NT$52.30 |
| King Slide Works Co. Ltd. (2059.TW) | O (11/08/2023) | NT$13,355.00 |
| Lens Technology (300433.SZ) | E (0 /22/2020) | Rmb32.31 |
| Lite-On Technology (2301.TW) | E (01/15/2025) | NT$298.00 |
| TCL Corp. (000100.SZ) | E (04/0 /2025) | Rmb4. 9 |
| Tianma Microelectronics (000050.SZ) | U (01/24/2018) | Rmb6.31 |
| Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co Ltd (30056 .SZ) | E (11/26/2021) | Rmb184.03 |
| Howard Kao | ||
| Acer Inc. (2353.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$31.40 |
| Asustek Computer Inc. (235 .TW) | U (11/16/2025) | NT$995.00 |
| Catcher Technology (24 4.TW) | U (11/1 /2025) | NT$20 .00 |
| Compal Electronics (2324.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$35.80 |
| Elite Material Co. (2383.TW) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$5, 00.00 |
| FIT Hon Teng Ltd (6088.HK) | O (11/03/2025) | HK$4.86 |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. (601138.SS) | O (0 /10/2019) | Rmb58.20 |
| Giga-Byte Technology Co. Ltd. (23 6.TW) | E (11/16/2025) | NT$388.50 |
| Gold Circuit Electronics Ltd. (2368.TW) | O (10/06/2022) | NT$1,215.00 |
| Hon Hai Precision (231 .TW) | O (03/15/2024) | NT$254.00 |
| Inspur Electronic Information (0009 .SZ) | E (08/28/2023) | Rmb65.93 |
| Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd. (1888.HK) | O (09/14/2026) | HK$55.30 |
| LandMark Optoelectronics Corporation (3081.TWO) | E (03/26/2026) | NT$3,000.00 |
| Lenovo (0992.HK) | O (0 /10/2026) | HK$35.92 |
| Lotes Co. Ltd. (3533.TW) | E (05/12/2025) | NT$1,8 5.00 |
| Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,495.00 |
| Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW) | E (03/25/2026) | NT$88. 0 |
| Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW) | O (05/01/2023) | NT$331.00 |
| Shengyi Technology Co Ltd. (600183.SS) | E (05/26/2022) | Rmb129.96 |
| Shennan Circuits Co Ltd (002916.SZ) | E (08/24/2023) | Rmb3 3.01 |
| Unimicron (303 .TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,325.00 |
| Visual Photonics Epitaxy Co Ltd (2455.TW) | E (09/11/2023) | NT$606.00 |
| Wistron Corporation (3231.TW) | O (0 /12/2023) | NT$189.50 |
| Wiwynn Corp (6669.TW) | O (11/10/2025) | NT$2,150.00 |
|---|---|---|
| Yageo Corp. (232 .TW) | O (10/28/2025) | NT$626.00 |
| Zhen Ding (4958.TW) | ++ | NT$5 6.00 |
| Irene Yen | ||
| Co-Tech Development Corp. (8358.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$5 0.00 |
| Taiwan Union Technology Corporation (62 4.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$1, 80.00 |
- Historical prices are not split adjusted.