PDF 原檔：報告_MS_華邦電2344_20261103_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-11-04）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_MS_華邦電2344_20261103_001.png |
53KB | 真資料圖 | Winbond（2344.TW）股價、目標價與評等歷史圖，2023/11–2026/11：藍線股價、紅色階梯虛線目標價（30.75、32.77、24.83、17.5、12、25、30、42、50、65、88、130、155、140、100、222、288），上方標 O/A、E/I、U/I 等評等變動點；末段股價約 160 元，目標價 288 |
原始內容
M Update November 3, 2026 10:35 AM GMT
Winbond Electronics Corp | Asia Pacific
Strong 3Q margins; growth to moderate in 4Q
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Unchanged Modest u side Modest revision higher
Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month
Source: Company data Morgan Stanley Research
3Q26 earnings beat: 3Q revenue was NT$82bn, +38% Q/Q, +278% Y/Y, 8% below MSe; GM was 70 6%, +4 3ppt Q/Q, +23 9ppt Y/Y, 12 5ppt above MSe; EPS was NT $7 49, +39% Q/Q, +1045% Y/Y, 3% above MSe CMS revenue grew 50% Q/Q as ASP increased by ~60%, despite lower bit shipments, which was due to reserving supply for LTA customers Flash revenue rose 34% Q/Q on pricing and mix with flat bit shipments Memory GM reached 73 9%
4Q growth to moderate; 16nm supports 202 : Management expects continued 4Q growth, but a slower pace as non-AI demand softens DRAM contract prices should rise more moderately than in 3Q, while high density NOR remains tight KH module A capacity should reach 24-25kwpm by end-2026 16nm ramp from ~2kwpm to 16kwpm is expected to support 2H27 shipments
AI opportunities broaden; module B capex approved: Management projects server NOR bit shipments to grow 67% Y/Y in 2027 CUBE customers are increasingly inference accelerator developers with several expected to begin small volume production in 2027 Silicon capacitor capacity is largely allocated, but current margins remain below conventional DRAM The board newly approved NT$73bn capex for the previously announced Module B expansion
consensus EPS
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Dani l.Y n@morganstanl y.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
|---|---|
| Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charli .Chan@morganstanl y.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanl y.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Ethan Jia R s arch Associat Ethan.Jia@morganstanl y.com | +852 3963-2287 |
Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.
Winbond Electronics Corp (2344.TW, 2344 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| Industry View | Attractive |
| Price target | NT$288.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | 78 |
| Shr price close (Nov 2 2026) | NT$162.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$233.50-48.60 |
| Sh out dil curr (mn) | 4 180 |
| Mkt cap curr (mn) | NT$677 160 |
| EV curr (mn) | NT$700 485 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$23 217 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 0.88 | 24.89 | 49.83 | 59.96 |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 0.86 | 25.60 | 53.77 | 69.94 |
| Revenue net (NT$ mn) | 89 406298 | 818495 | 128558 647 | |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 18 234153 | 844299 912350 | 952 | |
| P/E | 93.8 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| P/BV | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| ROE (%) | 4.3 | 103.8 | 101.8 | 59.3 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Unless otherwise noted all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
- § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
- e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Update
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Winbond Electronics Corp (2344.TW)
Base case, 2 9x 2027e P/B This method is in line with the approach we adopt for Greater China memory IDM peers, in view of the industry's high volatility We believe the stock merits a multiple beyond the high end of its historical band of 0 5-1 5x since 2017, as we are seeing DRAM pricing upside, a sustainable NOR price hike, and opportunities in SLC NAND and SiCap foundry business
Risks to Upside
- n NOR Flash pricing increase, driven by stronger-than-expected demand
- n Stronger-than-expected DRAM pricing given ongoing supply shortage
- n Faster-than-expected SLC NAND development
Risks to Downside
- n NOR Flash downcycle, driven by weaker demand
- n Lower-than-expected DRAM pricing given ongoing oversupply
- n Slower-than-expected SLC NAND development
M Update